The Total Inability of 49er Fans to Understand Receiver Performance

Fleener + Davis = More Lethal version of Hernandez and Gronk.
And thats saying something.

You wont be able to cover our offense. Too many weapons.
Pick up LaMichael James in round 2 and we are set.

Originally posted by BillWalsh:
What people fail to understand is Crabtree's 874 yard season on our team that threw for just over 3000 yards would be a 1300 to 1400 yard season on a team that throws for 5000 yards. Crabtree = number 1 reciever. I think he has 1100 yards or more next year if healthy.

Thats very interesting. I went and crunched some numbers. Of course its not exact and not all that scientific as to how it works out as there is a severe chicken and the egg scenario here. But if we look at stats we have

Smith:3144 Yards
Crabtree: 874 which equals roughly about 27% of Smiths yards.

Megatron 1681 was about 33% of Staffords 5038 yards

Fitz at 1411 yards was about 36% of Kolb and Skeltons Combined 3868 yards

Both of those quite a bit more than Smiths yards. If we maintain crabtree's % of 27 to Staffords amount of yards it equals about a 1400 yard season for Crab. For the AZ Combined QB's it would equal just over 1000 yards for Crabtree.

A top 10 QB for yards averages 4236 Yards. 27% of that would net Crabtree 1143 Yards.

Again I note the Chicken v Egg scenario, I understand if Crabtree is better maybe smith would have more yards but it works the other way as well. if Smith gets more towards a top 10 QB Crabtree's production indicates he should be in the 1000 yard receiver class

Originally posted by 1swift:

Originally posted by BillWalsh:
What people fail to understand is Crabtree's 874 yard season on our team that threw for just over 3000 yards would be a 1300 to 1400 yard season on a team that throws for 5000 yards. Crabtree = number 1 reciever. I think he has 1100 yards or more next year if healthy.

Thats very interesting. I went and crunched some numbers. Of course its not exact and not all that scientific as to how it works out as there is a severe chicken and the egg scenario here. But if we look at stats we have

Smith:3144 Yards
Crabtree: 874 which equals roughly about 27% of Smiths yards.

Megatron 1681 was about 33% of Staffords 5038 yards

Fitz at 1411 yards was about 36% of Kolb and Skeltons Combined 3868 yards

Both of those quite a bit more than Smiths yards. If we maintain crabtree's % of 27 to Staffords amount of yards it equals about a 1400 yard season for Crab. For the AZ Combined QB's it would equal just over 1000 yards for Crabtree.

A top 10 QB for yards averages 4236 Yards. 27% of that would net Crabtree 1143 Yards.

Again I note the Chicken v Egg scenario, I understand if Crabtree is better maybe smith would have more yards but it works the other way as well. if Smith gets more towards a top 10 QB Crabtree's production indicates he should be in the 1000 yard receiver class

And what if those QBs and WRs were in a more run 1st offense with way less attempts? What then?

Originally posted by WillistheWall:

Originally posted by 1swift:

Originally posted by BillWalsh:
What people fail to understand is Crabtree's 874 yard season on our team that threw for just over 3000 yards would be a 1300 to 1400 yard season on a team that throws for 5000 yards. Crabtree = number 1 reciever. I think he has 1100 yards or more next year if healthy.

Thats very interesting. I went and crunched some numbers. Of course its not exact and not all that scientific as to how it works out as there is a severe chicken and the egg scenario here. But if we look at stats we have

Smith:3144 Yards
Crabtree: 874 which equals roughly about 27% of Smiths yards.

Megatron 1681 was about 33% of Staffords 5038 yards

Fitz at 1411 yards was about 36% of Kolb and Skeltons Combined 3868 yards

Both of those quite a bit more than Smiths yards. If we maintain crabtree's % of 27 to Staffords amount of yards it equals about a 1400 yard season for Crab. For the AZ Combined QB's it would equal just over 1000 yards for Crabtree.

A top 10 QB for yards averages 4236 Yards. 27% of that would net Crabtree 1143 Yards.

Again I note the Chicken v Egg scenario, I understand if Crabtree is better maybe smith would have more yards but it works the other way as well. if Smith gets more towards a top 10 QB Crabtree's production indicates he should be in the 1000 yard receiver class

And what if those QBs and WRs were in a more run 1st offense with way less attempts? What then?

What do you mean? If those guys throw a lot less they have less yards and their receivers have less yards.

The point Im trying to say here is that I believe Crabtree is #1 Worthy. If you compare him to guys saying he's a lot less effective you have to take into the fact our QB has a lot less yards, a lot less pass attempts etc. If attempts and Yards go up clearly Crab's stats go up

Originally posted by 1swift:

Originally posted by WillistheWall:

Originally posted by 1swift:

Originally posted by BillWalsh:
What people fail to understand is Crabtree's 874 yard season on our team that threw for just over 3000 yards would be a 1300 to 1400 yard season on a team that throws for 5000 yards. Crabtree = number 1 reciever. I think he has 1100 yards or more next year if healthy.

Thats very interesting. I went and crunched some numbers. Of course its not exact and not all that scientific as to how it works out as there is a severe chicken and the egg scenario here. But if we look at stats we have

Smith:3144 Yards
Crabtree: 874 which equals roughly about 27% of Smiths yards.

Megatron 1681 was about 33% of Staffords 5038 yards

Fitz at 1411 yards was about 36% of Kolb and Skeltons Combined 3868 yards

Both of those quite a bit more than Smiths yards. If we maintain crabtree's % of 27 to Staffords amount of yards it equals about a 1400 yard season for Crab. For the AZ Combined QB's it would equal just over 1000 yards for Crabtree.

A top 10 QB for yards averages 4236 Yards. 27% of that would net Crabtree 1143 Yards.

Again I note the Chicken v Egg scenario, I understand if Crabtree is better maybe smith would have more yards but it works the other way as well. if Smith gets more towards a top 10 QB Crabtree's production indicates he should be in the 1000 yard receiver class

And what if those QBs and WRs were in a more run 1st offense with way less attempts? What then?

What do you mean? If those guys throw a lot less they have less yards and their receivers have less yards.

The point Im trying to say here is that I believe Crabtree is #1 Worthy. If you compare him to guys saying he's a lot less effective you have to take into the fact our QB has a lot less yards, a lot less pass attempts etc. If attempts and Yards go up clearly Crab's stats go up

Yeah I agree, if Crabs can stay healthy this offseason and we throw more then he will have better numbers next year. I think if he and Alex can get some chemistry going that would be really helpful. Also, adding Moss and Manningham should take attention away from Crabs and give him more room to operate. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do with a full offseason.

The whole premise of this thread is obnoxious, so...didn't read, didn't lol.

Originally posted by BillWalsh:
What people fail to understand is Crabtree's 874 yard season on our team that threw for just over 3000 yards would be a 1300 to 1400 yard season on a team that throws for 5000 yards. Crabtree = number 1 reciever. I think he has 1100 yards or more next year if healthy.

You nailed it here. It's not the QB's fault though...

is every thread a Fleener thread now?

Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Yeah I agree, if Crabs can stay healthy this offseason and we throw more then he will have better numbers next year. I think if he and Alex can get some chemistry going that would be really helpful. Also, adding Moss and Manningham should take attention away from Crabs and give him more room to operate. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do with a full offseason.

This is true...esp. if we do get Fleener. He and VD would absolutely open up the middle of the field and force the secondary to look inside. The other big issue here is that Crabtree has never been challenged before...ever. This year he is really going to have to prove he is worthy of being on the field competing against Moss and Manningham. He could get Spencered if he isn't careful. It seems like Moss really wants to prove himself and no way Manningham came here to be a #3. B/c we run so many 2 and 3 TE sets, you better get the #1 or #2 WR spots or you won't see the field much in this offense!

Originally posted by jreff22:
is every thread a Fleener thread now?

Unfortunately, yup Bro. And I don't see that changing until the draft is over. Even then there are going to people here screaming to make a trade for Fleener if we don't make Fleener our 1st round pick.

I wonder if Jim will evaluate his performance last season as well, and realize that while being conservative is basically a net positive, in the NFL he is going to have to open up the offense a little bit more, and put a little bit more on the passing game. It seems like he is accepting that with the additions that are being made.

It should be an exciting year. Hopefully the receivers can get comfortable with Smith, and I would LOVE to pick up Fleener. I like Walfer, but he is just not as good as some like to think, and he doen't compliment VD at all. A bigger, Gronk-like TE would be a great security blanket for Smith as well.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:
For all the talk about 2 TE's as the feature look it hasn't won a SB. This is the NFL, not Stanford. Now you can think I'm "trolling" for disagreeing with you all you want. I can say all this Fleener-in-the-first fixation is all about 49er many fans wanting Fleener there because of the Stanford-JH connection, the Stanford playbook familiarity thing. But drafting a player in the 1st who won't be a starter isn't good, for any team. That's a completely logical position people can ignore all they want. I can say that the lack of production of our WR's forced JH & Roman, and even the past ragime, to rely heavily on the TE's, even in 3, 4, and 5 wide sets. That's a logical position that people can dismiss as "trolling" all they want. An argument can be made that JH wants to open the offense up a bit more, especially given we had a lot of trouble scoring last season. There's a reason there'a a difference between TE's and WR's . In the NFL, the offense can only be opened up so much with two talented TE's. In the NFL, at some point the WR position must become a threat or teams will force you to use them. And if you can't then consider yourself exposed. (Again, see the NFC title game.)

More absolutely unsubstantiated and baseless claims....awesome...........by the way, YOU NEED a fullback in your lineup or else you're screwed, just FYI.

Funny, I agree with you there. In fact,it's one of the biggest reasons I am against drafting a TE in the 1st. If we started two TE's like most here on The Zone wants someone has to come off the field, either a WR or the FB. "WR TE XXXXX TE WR", in whatever package, means single back sets. That's football fact, not my fact. This is problematic because 1) Gore thrives with a FB, and 2) the FB is vital in the WC offense, even on passing downs. If we take a WR off to start 2 TE's that's gonna condense the defense. Now I know what you are going to say to that. But if defenses consistently play condensed defenses against you, like they do us, that means you have shown an inability to get the ball down field. That's football X's and O's, not about Fleener the "playmaker", his measurables, or that he's could be a mismatch. Frankly, we posed mismatches with Davis and Walker on the field. But defenses adjusted to that with decent LB and FS/SS play in coverage out of the nickle and good scheming. At some point, we are going to have to be able to push the ball down field with WR's or else we will get exposed again this season.

Originally posted by Garcia:
Fleener + Davis = More Lethal version of Hernandez and Gronk.
And thats saying something.

You wont be able to cover our offense. Too many weapons.
Pick up LaMichael James in round 2 and we are set.

Gronk > Davis. Sorry but he is. Davis is probably a better athlete but Gronk has better hands and probably better route running ability. His records speak for themselves.

Hernandez > Fleener. This is only because nobody knows what Fleener will do in the pros.

Please don't pick up James in the 2nd. We need a power back.

As with last year, Jim Harbaugh is in a perfect position to draft one of his players if he thinks highly of him. Baalke would no doubt give in if Harbaugh sold him on Fleener. The question then is just how does Harbaugh see the team right now? Does he want to go into camp with the WRs he has? Or is he worried about the position? Will they need to pick up a RG high, even trading up? Then no Fleener or top WR.

Nice to go into the draft with only one huge need--RG...if they can't pickup a FA vet. Picking up a solid vet would allow the young guys to learn and develop before being thrown in and would help Davis on the right side. Really want to see what Smith could do with more time--and no holes in the middle.

Originally posted by miked1978:
Gronk > Davis. Sorry but he is. Davis is probably a better athlete but Gronk has better hands and probably better route running ability. His records speak for themselves.

Hernandez > Fleener. This is only because nobody knows what Fleener will do in the pros.

Please don't pick up James in the 2nd. We need a power back.

But you're comparing the wrong TEs.

Davis > Hernandez. Smaller option at TE.

Gronk > Fleener. Bigger targets. Fleener doesn't have to be better than Gronk to make it worth it though. He opens up opportunities for Davis, who has better size and speed than Hernandez. And Fleener at 6'6" still creates Jimmy Graham type matchup problems with linebackers (slow) or DBs (small).

We aren't trying to exactly recreate the Patriots offense. It is just a model to demonstrate the possibilities that a multiple TE package can provide.