What are the chances Michael Crabtree has a breakout 2012 season, like VD in 2009?

While he does improve year to year, I'd like to see him actually participate in TC and preseason, for once. That would certainly jumpstart him for the year and establish better rapport with his QB. As far as a "breakout" year? Nothing less that 70-80 catches, 8 td's and 1000 yds would do it for me. That's not asking too much for a #10 pick, is it?

If he fully participates in the off season and especially if the Niners get a productive speed burner to stretch the field along with V. Davis, I see Crabtree having a great season. A speed burner who is more productive than Ted Ginn stretching the outside while V. Davis stretches the inside would leave a lot of room for Crabtree to catch short and medium-range passes. He could be productive every game and have a breakout year. I'm hoping for that scenario.

I totally hijacked the "9ers talking to Morgan" thread, go to the last past for some entertaining banter between me and suswheel regarding Crabtree.

Based on what I used in my argument I think Crabtree barely cracks 1,000 yards but it will happen.

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:

Originally posted by walker807:

Originally posted by NinerPrideinNJ:
One of the most disappointing players the 49ers have drafted in a long time.


Hoping he can turn it around next year and show the glimpses of talent that he has more consistently. But I just don't think his heart is in the game of football.

He comes across like it's more a job and I always sense a division between him and the team in terms of camaraderie.

Your joking right. He had an effed up foot and missed 2 games and still managed to be the teams leader in receptions and yards. He has gone up each of the 3 years he has been on the team in stats and has shown a lot more in 3 years than Vernon did. Yeah the dude isn't a 1000 yard receiver...yet, but he certainly is the best WR this team has had since T.O. and that's a lot of WR's coming and going since then. Rashaun Woods is a disappointment, Crabs can just be a little frustrating at times.

I'm with NinerPrideinNJ on this. His heart just isn't in this team, I think. I'd like tot see this guy live up to his talents but I'm not holding out hope anymore. People have more excuses for this guy than the law allow. This is a "what have you done for me lately" league. And inconsistency, lack of effort, and attitude is about all we've gotten from this guy. He is the most talented WR we have but he hasn't been the best WR we have. Morgan has.

How exactly has Morgan been the best WR? His best season ever would be considered a crappy year for Crabtree. I get that Crabs seems a bit disconnected at times but to say Morgan is better is laughable. I like Morgan a lot but his best is closer to Crabtree just going through the motions. Morgan simply is not a game changer.

Figured I'd just copy + paste my posts from the other thread that way I can contribute to the actual topic lol. Sorry for the long read.

I'm sure your no doubt comparing Crabtree to the rest of his class guess how many yards per game they've averaged
Nicks: 73 in an offense that has averaged 269 yards per game. Of course he will have better #s then Crabtree when its Eli and a pass happy O.
Hayward-Bey: 35 in an offense that has averaged 217 per game. Another anemic offense holding back a top 10 talent
Britt: 56 in an offense that has averages 218 per game. Another anemic offense hold back another player.
Harvin: 58 in an offense that has averaged 228 per game. Farve had the O in a different gear for 2009 but there was no statistical change from 2010 to 2011.
Maclin: 59 in an offense that has averaged 268 per game. Another prolific O that has them going full speed.
Crabtree: 53 in an offense that has average 208 per game.

In terms of AVERAGE YARDS PER GAME Crabtree is the 5th best WR( but when you're taking about 2 or 3 yards I'd pretty much rank it 1. Nicks 2. Everyone 3. Bey) from the 2009 1st round
In terms of % of the system and its overall production
Nicks is 27% of their offense
Crabtree is 25% of our offense
Harvin is 25% of their offense
Britt is 25% of their offense
Maclin is 22% of their offense
Bey is 16% of their offense

and...edited to removed the banter with susweel.....

Here I'll compare the YPG of the top 5 WRs from last season to Crabtree because that is apparently what Crabtree should be according to everyone on here.

Wes Welker
YPG 09-11: 83
% of total O: 34
average pass yards per game: 281

Roddy White
YPG 09-11: 79
% of total O: 29
average pass yards per game: 241

Calvin Johnson
YPG 09-11: 84
% of total O: 31
average pass yards per game: 260

Percy Harvin
YPG 09-11: 58
% of total O: 25%
average pass yards per game: 228

Victor Cruz
YPG 2011: 96
% of total O: 30%
average pass yards per game: 308

compared to
Crabtree
YPG 09-11: 53
% of total O: 25%
average pass yards per game: 208

hmm where is the disparity is coming from? Hmm could it be that Crabtree is utilized no where near the level that these players are.Here
I'll go 1 better and compare the last 5 drafts top WRs 1st 3 years to Crabtree.....

2006
Santonio Holmes
YPG 06-08: 59
% of total O: 23
average pass yards per game: 230

2007
Calvin Johnson
YPG 07-09: 68
% of total O: 27%
Average pass yards per game: 228

2008N/A

2009
Michael Crabtree
YPG 09-11: 53
% of total O: 25%
Average pass yards per game: 208

2010
Demaryius Thomas
YPG 10-11: 40
% of total O: 12%in 2011 though is first full season in 2012: 20%
Average pass yards per game: 219

2011
AJ Green
YPG 2011: 70
% of total O: 31%
Average pass yards per game: 212

Are you noticing a trend yet? Those who massively outperform Crabtree and make us wish we had them are targeted more often and/or in an offense that passes more often then us.

Lets look at the "top tier free agents"

Vincent JacksonI'll even be nice and do 2008,09, and 11 and forget about his hold out.
YPG 08-09,11: 71
% of total O: 26%
average pass yards per game: 268

Marques Colston
YPG 09-11: 72
% of total O: 22%
average pass yards per game: 308

Mike Wallace
YPG 09-11: 66
% of total O: 25%
average pass yards per game: 264

Simply put Crabtree compares favorable to all the big name guys when you look at how frequently he is used in this offense compared to little this offense actually throws the ball. If we throw the ball more this coming season, say a marginal 25 yards more per game, that adds up to an extra 400 yards, simply by the % that Crabtree is thrown to that equals a 100 yard increase, putting him at 975 yards through 15 games, add his "average" of 53 yards per game to make up the 16th game he didnt play last season, and what do you know Crabtree breaks 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Yes I agree Crabtree can and should work on his routes, conditioning/controlling his body, and his hands but by no means does his statistical production indicate his skill level. I know stats can be twisted this way in that, I'm merely showing you that if you want use his career YPG as a negative then you need to focus on how often we throw the ball when comparing his production to that of Nicks, Colston, Jackon, and the other big name guys. Crabtree can improve but he is doing a damn fine job as it is and will only get better.

Hopefully this helps clear up peoples problems with Crabtree, yes statistically as an individual he has under performed but inside our system is doing the exact same thing that Vincent Jackson is doing in his. Yes Crabtree got a bad case of the dropsies against the saints and disappeared against the giants but those can be coached and fixed, toughen up his mind and work on the jugs machine etc. Crabtree is performing very well when you try and take a step back and look at the whole picture but again as I've said earlier in the thread, that I think 2012 might be his most ideal chance to show he is a #1 and not a glorified #2.

Good day everyone.

Originally posted by NinerGM:
NO CHANCE because he doesn't want it enough.

you watching a guy through a TV screen and making conclusions about his desire is like me reading your posts and concluding that you weren't hugged enough as a child.

Originally posted by NinerGM:
NO CHANCE because he doesn't want it enough.

Some guys can "appear" like they don't care. If you didn't know Isaac Bruce he would seem like he is disconnected and doesn't care, some guys are just like that. I feel like one of his biggest issues with how he is perceived is that he doesn't do well in front of reporters and cameras. I think that he just is shy about it and that comes across as a "I don't care" attitude. I reserve the right to change my opinion if he misses another preseason, that for me would be the straw that breaks the camels back.

Originally posted by RDB4216:

I would say the odds are better that Crabtree has a breakout of VD, before he has a breakout season. Anyone have the over/under on that?

You have to be kidding. The dude has been improving each year. Even a 1,000 yard season - which people would consider a "breakout" season for a bad receiver - wouldn't even be a breakout season for him because his gradual improvement places him in that range already. You act like this guy is putting up 30 catches for 350 yards every year.

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:
I am done making excusses for Crabs and waiting on his to finally perform. He had a golden opportunity to breakout in 2011 when Edwards was sent packing but he just plain crapped out. Its been three years with the same QB and he still hasn't developed a relationship with Smith. I have no more hope he will ever pan out, not at least for the 49ers.

72 catches, 874 yards ain't bad.

I'm not impressed at all. After 3 seasons and thats the best we can expect from our supposed #1 who won't, but the way, buy in to the team with an attitude to boot? I'm sorry but that's piss-poor.

#1! Crabtree is a talent but he's not a #1, not a burner and never was. The 49ers knew that when they got him.
I'll admit you expect more from your top wideout and he should do better. No question about that.
But If you wanna talk about piss poor. Look at the guy throwing him the ball. #11 is not Not exactly a hall of famer.

He's a #2 WR who is slow. Good possession WR. But no deep speed. Disappears completely in the playoffs. The most troubling aspect. That's who he is.

Ditto GM and SanDiego. slow, and doesn't want it enough. Also a guy getting #2 WR money playing like a #4 WR. And that is bad news. Here's a thot. Cut craps and use his salary $4.5 mil /yr towards a $9mil/yr offer for Wallace, hence the salary net cost would be $4.5mil/yr from the 9ers, and we have our #1 WR. We still would need 3 more WRs in draft,, late, and UDFAs in camp. Morgan is a #2 . Wallace would be our #1. We then need 3more guys , coming from a draft where Harbaugh knows more about college WRs than most other HCs in the league. I can see him coming up with 3 starting WRs, say a #3, 4,and 5.

Kyle is not a bad #5, maybe a #4, but he has seen his last duty as replacement PR.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
He's a #2 WR who is slow. Good possession WR. But no deep speed. Disappears completely in the playoffs. The most troubling aspect. That's who he is.

Truth. VD is big,strong, and fast. He had the physical tools to be ELITE. Crabs doesnt have the physical tools, and it seems like he doesnt have the work ethic, but that could have been due to his lack of faith in Alex. Hopefully, they continue to work together and Alex develops more trust in him, to give him more chances to make plays