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Can the Niners attain No. 1 seed in NFC?

Yes.

In fact, I just have a feeling deep down that the Packers might fall this week to San Diego. I also think they may drop one to Detroit.
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Yes.

In fact, I just have a feeling deep down that the Packers might fall this week to San Diego. I also think they may drop one to Detroit.

After researching PIT schedule, I got even more miffed that they have ONLY beaten NE and all other teams they beat are below 0.500. Same with GB. These so called "top" ranked teams have a very tough schedule in the next 5 to 6 weeks. A schedule similar to what we have already been through and only lost 1.


To me, so far, all these teams are unproven posers and we are the only team that have been through some tough matchups.
The 49ers absolutely could. Let's say we beat Washington this weekend and go to 7-1. GB could easily come out flat after the bye, and lose to a hungry, desperate, and likely focused SD team at home. The Giants game will suddenly become HUGE and if we step up our effort to beat the Giants. Suddenly we are tied. Plus GB has a tough road to hoe comming up. Say we go 12-4 because we drop the Giants, Steelers, and Ravens games( I don't think we will) GB must finnish out a tough schedule.
GB @ SD Not a doormat and locked in a dead heat for the AFC West coming off of a disaster in KC. These guys will have there gamefaces on.
MIN @ GB -Not a doormat and they always play good vs. GB.
TB @ GB -Not a doormat.
GB @ DET -I would BET on detroit in this game. L
GB @ NYG -Playoff positioning could come down to which one of us gets the "Bad Eli" Still Giants at Home? Potential Loss.
OAK @ GB -Lord knows who shows up here? Probably a W for GB.
GB @ KC -THE BEARD STAYS! YOU GO! GB will have a hungry and dangerous opponent on their hands.
CHI @ GB -CHI is not a doormat.
DET @ GB -Detroit could have everything on the line in this game and GB might just be playing for homefield advantage after having secured the bye. I wouldn't call this game either way right now.
Bottom line? I can easily Imagine GB loosing 5 of these games. They are as likely to do that as we are to drop 4 games down the stretch. So yeah it's going to be close. Until it isn't. We'll just have too see. It's certainly not a total fantasy.
The GB schedule is very much in our favor, really. Not only do they have a tougher schedule overall but many of their tough games are inter-divisional or inter-conference games, whereas two of our three toughest games are against the AFC. Even if we both end up, say, 14-2 or 13-3, its likely that we could be #1 based on tiebreakers.

Kind of a longshot, but its crazy to think that its possible.
  • TX9R
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 8,183
Pretty sure Rodgers has never played a full 16 game schedule, don't know why people just assume he will this year. With that, we could easily win the NFC, but then AS has similar issues with health.
Sure, I'm not trying to dictate how fans should think. I'm just saying that right now personally I'm only thinking one game at a time.

Originally posted by okdkid:
Anyone who is currently employed by the San Francisco 49ers franchise should think this way.

However, fans need not be limited by such burdens. Fans can think about today, tomorrow, next year and next decade. We can afford to look ahead.
[ Edited by real9erfan on Nov 2, 2011 at 11:34 AM ]
  • Happs
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 595
Originally posted by HessianDud:
The GB schedule is very much in our favor, really. Not only do they have a tougher schedule overall but many of their tough games are inter-divisional or inter-conference games, whereas two of our three toughest games are against the AFC. Even if we both end up, say, 14-2 or 13-3, its likely that we could be #1 based on tiebreakers.

Kind of a longshot, but its crazy to think that its possible.

Speaking of Tie Breakers, I think it could come down to the "Common Opponents" Tie Breaker if the records are tied. Here's the order of the Tie Breaking procedures:

Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.

Obviously head to head won't apply. Conference record could very likely be the same. So the common opponents are:

St Louis (twice for sf)
Tampa
Detroit (twice for gb)
New York

They've already beaten St Louis and the Niners have beaten Detroit and Tampa. So the New York game is important for this Tie breaker. I do think we'll beat St Louis both times. We could go undefeated in these common opponents

One question though is that since they play Detroit twice, what happens if they split. Which result will they use in this Tie Breaker?
Originally posted by Happs:
Originally posted by HessianDud:
The GB schedule is very much in our favor, really. Not only do they have a tougher schedule overall but many of their tough games are inter-divisional or inter-conference games, whereas two of our three toughest games are against the AFC. Even if we both end up, say, 14-2 or 13-3, its likely that we could be #1 based on tiebreakers.

Kind of a longshot, but its crazy to think that its possible.

Speaking of Tie Breakers, I think it could come down to the "Common Opponents" Tie Breaker if the records are tied. Here's the order of the Tie Breaking procedures:

Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.

Obviously head to head won't apply. Conference record could very likely be the same. So the common opponents are:

St Louis (twice for sf)
Tampa
Detroit (twice for gb)
New York

They've already beaten St Louis and the Niners have beaten Detroit and Tampa. So the New York game is important for this Tie breaker. I do think we'll beat St Louis both times. We could go undefeated in these common opponents

One question though is that since they play Detroit twice, what happens if they split. Which result will they use in this Tie Breaker?

Dunno, but Divisional record comes before Conference record....so lsoing to Detroit could REALLY hurt them.
Originally posted by Happs:
Originally posted by HessianDud:
The GB schedule is very much in our favor, really. Not only do they have a tougher schedule overall but many of their tough games are inter-divisional or inter-conference games, whereas two of our three toughest games are against the AFC. Even if we both end up, say, 14-2 or 13-3, its likely that we could be #1 based on tiebreakers.

Kind of a longshot, but its crazy to think that its possible.

Speaking of Tie Breakers, I think it could come down to the "Common Opponents" Tie Breaker if the records are tied. Here's the order of the Tie Breaking procedures:

Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.

Obviously head to head won't apply. Conference record could very likely be the same. So the common opponents are:

St Louis (twice for sf)
Tampa
Detroit (twice for gb)
New York

They've already beaten St Louis and the Niners have beaten Detroit and Tampa. So the New York game is important for this Tie breaker. I do think we'll beat St Louis both times. We could go undefeated in these common opponents

One question though is that since they play Detroit twice, what happens if they split. Which result will they use in this Tie Breaker?

good question, IDK. maybe they only use common opponents that aren't in either teams division?
I think the Pack have a chance to lose this week. They play in San Diego where the Chargers have not lost this year, and you can bet that Rivers and co are going to be PISSED about monday night and want to take it out on someone. Teams have been doing not so well this year after bye weeks most likely because of the mandatory time off the league instituted. And the Chargers every year typically have been really good starting in November. I say they beat the Packers.

After that they have a couple of tough road games the rest of the year, at Detroit, at KC and at the Giants. If the niners can manage to finish the season the way they've started, they could have the same record as the Packers and that might give them the #1 seed if we get these tie breakers mentioned.
[ Edited by KowboyKiller on Nov 2, 2011 at 12:02 PM ]
Nice write-up dude. Thanks. Why did I have to go through nine pages to read one piece though? It was like two paragraphs and then needed to go to another page.
  • Happs
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  • Posts: 595
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Dunno, but Divisional record comes before Conference record....so lsoing to Detroit could REALLY hurt them.

From my understanding of the tie breaking procedures, divisional record only applies to break ties between teams within the same division.
Originally posted by Muggins879:
Nice write-up dude. Thanks. Why did I have to go through nine pages to read one piece though? It was like two paragraphs and then needed to go to another page.

That's the way the majority of the B/R articles read.

They say its easier for readers to remain interested in the article, like being interactive I guess. Plus I think they are easier to read, you are able to list out 7 reasons why and prove your point about each one individually.

But thanks for the comment, man.
Originally posted by Happs:
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Dunno, but Divisional record comes before Conference record....so lsoing to Detroit could REALLY hurt them.

From my understanding of the tie breaking procedures, divisional record only applies to break ties between teams within the same division.

Nope.

I'm pretty sure Divisional Record is the second tie-breaker (after head-to-head) regardless of wether the teams are in the same division or not. Then Conference Record.

If the Niners win this weekend and the Packers lose, the Pack will still hold the #1 seed because the Chargers are in the AFC.
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Yes.

In fact, I just have a feeling deep down that the Packers might fall this week to San Diego. I also think they may drop one to Detroit.

If the Packers lost to the Chargers, they'd still have a leg up on the 49ers as the loss would be against a non-conference team. The 49ers will need help from the Lions to rack up a win or two against the Packers to even things out. Packers do have some tougher games toward the end of the season when they face the Giants, the Chiefs in their respective turfs. And who knows what the Raiders would do when they visit Lambeau Field later this year, as they have been the spoiler team this season, managing to pull out improbable victories.