Media and the 49ers

What the sports writers don't realize, is that our defense will very likely be better. It would take 4-5 injuries for that not to happen. They also don't realize that our offense has a good chance to be better. They don't realize how bad Chilo Rachal was.

Then they point to the schedule as being tougher, where, if they bothered to research it, it is actually easier on average and on median. I can't blame them too much, you would have to really follow the team closely to understand these things.

As long as the Smith's are healthy, we should win 10+ games.

Originally posted by kray28:
Look at how we won a good number of our games. Defense, great field position thanks to the best punter in football, field goals from the best kicker, and turnover differential we are highly unlikely to replicate. We did not win many games in a way that exactly inspired confidence.

We need to be way better on offense and that is the truth.

That is very true. It will be very tough if our offense is not better. But our defense will almost certainly be better, so even if our offense is the same, we should be better.

I don't even bother reading Grant's articles anymore. They're either completely on the homer side or completely on the hater side. No fresh perspective or anything analytical worth discussing.

Barrows and Branch still keep it real.

Maiocco is a little too cookie cutter for me.

The Cohn's are the worst....by far.

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
bill simmons is trash, i can't stand him

I <3 bill simmons

Originally posted by WookieOftheYear:

no he doesnt, thats just another article of him hating on Alex Smith

Originally posted by Schulzy:

Two sides to this story: They can say the turnover rate isn't sustainable (I buy that it won't be +20, but we still should be a plus), but what about TD and comp % rate in the red zone? I'd like to see if their ineptitude is sustainable year to year. I doubt it, just like I believe the turnover differential isn't sustainable.

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Ya know what? I love these kinds of articles. They just fuel the team with "no respect" attitude.

Ya know what these guys always miss tho?

1) They DON'T HAVE TO 13-3 to win the Super Bowl. They only need to get ot the playoffs. Then it's just a game of matchups. The entire NFC West is playing a harder schedule.

2) Alex Smith peformance DID NOT start last year. Down the stretch after the Eagles game in 2010 (7 games), he Threw 8 TDs and ONE pick. In the 2011 playoffs the threw 5 TDs and ZERO picks. That means over the last 25 games he has thrown 30 TDs and 6 INTs. Alexs biggest problem has ALWAYS been RELUCTANCE to throw the ball. He has never been a guy who threw wildly into coverage. He held the ball unless he was sure. Under Harbaugh he is sure what his read is FAR, FAR more often and that's why he doesn't throw picks. We can criticise him for not making the pass he should and being reluctant to cut it loose, but taking chances has never been his problem...and that goes all the way back to college.

3) These guys always forget one REALLY, REALLY big thing: The Lockout. We didn't even see how good the Niners could be last year. The 49ers were supposed to be in BIG, BIG trouble because they had no time to install their offense and defense. Despite that disadvantage, they produced their best season in recent memory. This guy quotes all of those close games, but many of them were early on while the team was still learning the systems. They only put up about 200 yards of offense on several occasions early on and slowly opened up the attack every week. They were a different team at the finish than they were at the start.


Look, the Niners likely won't go 13-3 again this year. Ya know what tho? THEY DON'T NEED TO. The team that won the Super Bowl last year went 9-7 in the regular season. How did they win it? A D that could get to the QB with 4 and drop 7 into coverage against teams that could only pass (Packers, Pats). Who did the Giants have the most trouble with? Niners. That game could have gone either way. Guess who else can get there with 4 and can stop the run with only the front 7?

Sorry Haters....Niners aren't going anywhere.

THIS

And the fact that I looked at their schedule, and think they will be 13 - 3, if not better.
1. I don't see them up against anyone dominating.
2. The entire team is back, and with MORE offensive weapons.
3. Return of solid coaching.
4. And as someone else said, you don't need to go 13 - 3 to win. Look at the luckiest team in the NFL, the giants. They were 1 game away from being a .500 team.

Originally posted by dhp318:

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
bill simmons is trash, i can't stand him

I <3 bill simmons

Once again it's all about the fact that nobody still believes in Alex Smith. We watched him do good all season, these guys just remember his struggles in the championship game vs the Giants.

Shoot even Fangio has said that the defense will be better even if the stats aren't as good. I don't think they are going to be 13-3 again but I don't see 8-8 either. 10-6 is about where I'm at.

So taking a different angle... Lets look at the losers of the NFC Championship the past 5 years.

Saints, Packers, Eagles, Vikings, Bears... 3 of those 5 teams made it back to the playoffs the following year. The Vikes decline was directly correlated with Farvres decline, and the Bears suffered injuries to both Cutler and Forte and still hit 8-8.

Looking at the AFC, the past 5 conference championship losers were Patriots, Chargers, Ravens and Jets... and all but the Jets (last year) made it back to the playoffs fairly easily the following year.

Morale of the story: All but one team (last years disfunctional Jets) that stayed intact from a conference championship loss and had no injuries to the starting QB the following year made it back to the playoffs. And 3 of those 7 teams (Saints, Patriots, Packers) made it to the superbowl the following year, and two of those teams won the SB. (Saints, Packers)

13-3 probably isnt gonna happen, but the odds are overwhelmingly in our favor to make another playoff run if Smith stays upright.

He makes good points, actually. I've been saying some of the same stuff. We won't have as many wins, of course. Our schedule is insane. Also, our turnover margin won't be as good, and we will probably have more injuries. Who cares if we don't win 13. We just need to win 10 and get into the playoffs. I think this tough schedule will benefit us in the playoffs cause our team will be well adapted to wars against top level opponents. Like the Giants who snuck in the playoffs last year, they had a really tough schedule.

One thing he doesn't account for is that our offense will be a lot better. He mentions we have more weapons, but he kind of brushes it off by saying that this means Smith will throw more picks. That may be the case (about Smith throwing more picks), but overall I think our offense will be a lot more productive and not put as much pressure on our defense and special teams. Alex will be a lot better this year and have the best year of his career, IMO. Davis is going to have another stellar year, and Crabs will have his best year. Also, watch out for LaMichael making some big plays this year. With him, Gore and Hunter I'm loving the weapons out of the backfield.

With our offense being a lot better, I think it will negate some of his points. I think we'll win ten games and get into the playoffs... Once we are in, Superbowl.

Originally posted by JTsBiggestFan:
Marv, where've you been buddy?!

LOL...Mostly on the Stadium threads. ;-)

I'll tell you another thing that bugs me tho...

...and even the local media is guilty of this one.

People keep saying that the 49ers are going to open it up this year and that will put pressure on Alex Smith and that will force him to commit more turnovers. Have any of these people ever watched Stanford play? Anyone who thinks that all of the sudden the Niners are going to become a passing team are complete lunatics. They are going to run the hell out of the ball this year and they will simply have BETTER players in the passing game to make the passing plays they call more successful.

Randy Moss is going to stretch the field and make it easier to complete a pass to Crabtree/Davis/Walker. Alex isn't going to start putting the ball up 60 times a game.

The media is TOTALLY overreacting to the WR signings. Those moves were about improving the WR position, not about changing the dynamic of the offense. Stanford had the best QB in the nation and still ran the hell out of the ball. Everyone looks at all those WRs they aquired but don't seem to notice that they also have Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James, and Anthony Dixon. That is NOT an accident.

The Niners will be better on O, but the approach will be the same.

I read this article and it made me want to vomit. How biased can one be.

Originally posted by 5280High:
So taking a different angle... Lets look at the losers of the NFC Championship the past 5 years.

Saints, Packers, Eagles, Vikings, Bears... 3 of those 5 teams made it back to the playoffs the following year. The Vikes decline was directly correlated with Farvres decline, and the Bears suffered injuries to both Cutler and Forte and still hit 8-8.

Looking at the AFC, the past 5 conference championship losers were Patriots, Chargers, Ravens and Jets... and all but the Jets (last year) made it back to the playoffs fairly easily the following year.

Morale of the story: All but one team (last years disfunctional Jets) that stayed intact from a conference championship loss and had no injuries to the starting QB the following year made it back to the playoffs. And 3 of those 7 teams (Saints, Patriots, Packers) made it to the superbowl the following year, and two of those teams won the SB. (Saints, Packers)

13-3 probably isnt gonna happen, but the odds are overwhelmingly in our favor to make another playoff run if Smith stays upright.

Good counter argument!

They had 49ers talk on First Take this morning, in light of Pete Carroll's decision to start the rookie in the third preseason game. Skip as usual was being a tool, saying that Seattle was his preseason pick to win the division overtaking the 49ers until this decision. He is right in the sense that Pete is becoming a bit arrogant in his decision-making (but he has a lot of clout up there ala Nolan when he was HC/GM for the 49ers for most of his tenure).

Stephen A Smith schooled him about how the 49ers are the best team in that division, to which Bayless ridiculed him by saying Gore is washed up and that Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James are better.

If you read Michael Lombardi's columns over at NFL.com, he's still doubting whether or not the 49ers can pass the ball well enough (an indictment of Smith) to beat the teams with the elite QBs on their schedule, even though he clearly states that the 49ers will not regress this year.

Niners won't get a lot of love 'til they win another championship. Harbaugh doesn't kiss anyone's butt, definitely not the media's, so that's another strike against positive publicity. That's fine...the media can diss all they want, but what counts is between the lines. Win there and the media has no choice but to cover it.