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Media and the 49ers

13-3 and is a ridiculous record. No team can sustain those type of records year in and year out. For as dominant as the Colts and Pats were they had many season in the 10-12 range. 10-6 is a reasonable record for the Niners...that doesn't mean they are going to suck or are incapable of getting hot in playoffs! And one thing people don't seem to realize in all this "they don't have a good enough QB talk" is that teams with dominating defenses generally don't implode.
they all come to the same conclusion and that is that alex smith isn't a good enough qb
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Two sides to this story: They can say the turnover rate isn't sustainable (I buy that it won't be +20, but we still should be a plus), but what about TD and comp % rate in the red zone? I'd like to see if their ineptitude is sustainable year to year. I doubt it, just like I believe the turnover differential isn't sustainable.
Here is a better Grantland article. Chris Brown is a great read and a very good follow on twitter @smartfootball
Ya know what? I love these kinds of articles. They just fuel the team with "no respect" attitude.

Ya know what these guys always miss tho?

1) They DON'T HAVE TO 13-3 to win the Super Bowl. They only need to get ot the playoffs. Then it's just a game of matchups. The entire NFC West is playing a harder schedule.

2) Alex Smith peformance DID NOT start last year. Down the stretch after the Eagles game in 2010 (7 games), he Threw 8 TDs and ONE pick. In the 2011 playoffs the threw 5 TDs and ZERO picks. That means over the last 25 games he has thrown 30 TDs and 6 INTs. Alexs biggest problem has ALWAYS been RELUCTANCE to throw the ball. He has never been a guy who threw wildly into coverage. He held the ball unless he was sure. Under Harbaugh he is sure what his read is FAR, FAR more often and that's why he doesn't throw picks. We can criticise him for not making the pass he should and being reluctant to cut it loose, but taking chances has never been his problem...and that goes all the way back to college.

3) These guys always forget one REALLY, REALLY big thing: The Lockout. We didn't even see how good the Niners could be last year. The 49ers were supposed to be in BIG, BIG trouble because they had no time to install their offense and defense. Despite that disadvantage, they produced their best season in recent memory. This guy quotes all of those close games, but many of them were early on while the team was still learning the systems. They only put up about 200 yards of offense on several occasions early on and slowly opened up the attack every week. They were a different team at the finish than they were at the start.

Look, the Niners likely won't go 13-3 again this year. Ya know what tho? THEY DON'T NEED TO. The team that won the Super Bowl last year went 9-7 in the regular season. How did they win it? A D that could get to the QB with 4 and drop 7 into coverage against teams that could only pass (Packers, Pats). Who did the Giants have the most trouble with? Niners. That game could have gone either way. Guess who else can get there with 4 and can stop the run with only the front 7?

Sorry Haters....Niners aren't going anywhere.
Originally posted by Schulzy:
Two sides to this story: They can say the turnover rate isn't sustainable (I buy that it won't be +20, but we still should be a plus), but what about TD and comp % rate in the red zone? I'd like to see if their ineptitude is sustainable year to year. I doubt it, just like I believe the turnover differential isn't sustainable.

Exactly. They quote statistics that are POSITIVE and calls them unsustainable but doesn't look at the fact that OTHER stats could change in their favor.
Originally posted by WookieOftheYear:
Originally posted by Travisty13:
Same guy says we're the favorite to win the Super Bowl....

no he doesnt, thats just another article of him hating on Alex Smith

Originally posted by ImaMod:
This guy's argument is that in the past, the average 13-3 team won 9.3 games the following year, so he thinks were going 8-8 this season. And he thinks an 8-8 team will win the division. I hate to admit it but the Seahawks are a decent QB away from being a pretty good team.. and were not going 8-8 this season. The only decent point he made is that we didn't have too much injury problems last year.

Does this guy realize that we just reached the NFCCG with no training camp, with a new coaching staff that had to implement a completely new offense and a new defense as the season went on? Our offense should improve with a full off season and with a lot more weapons This isn't gonna be the same offense where Brett Swaine gets significant snaps in the NFC championship game. Our defense will still be elite even if its not as great as last year. Were stacked and have so many depth on offense, defense, and special teams with one of the best coaching staffs in the league.

What an idiot
I cant wait till we come back to this thread in 5 months and talk about how stupid this guy was to write this article.

Dumbest argument ever.
[ Edited by Young2Rice on Aug 7, 2012 at 11:40 AM ]
Thats got to be one of the worst articles I've ever written.. Of course ESPN would link it on the page

Nothing shocking in the article. And, even the conclusion, that the niners will not replicate or exceed their success from last year, if a fairly obvious prediction. Only 4 teams (1/8th of the NFL) make the championship games. So, it's safe conclude, when generalizing, that a team that is in the top eighth of the league one year will likely not be in as high a position the following year. He needn't go into the amount of detail he does to make this point. Just like it's even less likely that New England or NY will return to the Superbowl.

Nevertheless, these are generalities. And no amount of generalized analysis can with 100% confidence predict what will happen with a specific team. The prediction would be something less than 100%. So, to be nice, we can call it an educated guess. Or, less generous, just a guess or an opinion, which he attempts to support through disjointed arguments regarding general trends.

Not a bad piece. Not a terrible argument. But football is not played on an Excel sheet. Statisticians make s**tty ballers. And in Harbaugh I trust.
Im pretty sure that we wont come close to sniffing 13-3 just because the opponents we have on our schedule are tougher than last year i see a drop off but with all this talent this team is easily a 11-5 10-6 & once the playoffs starts its anybody's game we pick up steam towards the end of the season we can use that to help us in the post season

f*ck Bill Barnwell im bombing his a$$ on Twitter as we speak
The media is wrongly thinking of the 49ers as a team that overachieved last year, when in reality they were a team that severely underachieved the years before.
The lockout argument goes both could say that under a new coach and system, we had the element of surprise and that now that everyone has a year of tape on us as well as a full offseason, things might change

However, the article itself is fair. It simply is looking at history and patterns and applying them to us. It could very well happen, but at the same time, it could not and we could go 14-2 and surprise everyone.

The true beauty of the NFL really is the parity, we really won't know till the games are played
Plus, I count at least 8 games last year where we would have won anyway even if the turnover differential was even. So maybe we lose a few games this year if we don't win the turnover battle, but it's not like we won games just on turnover differential. Heck how many defensive scores did we get off turnovers last year? One or two? The only defensive TD I remember is Rogers' pick 6 vs. Tampa. You have to think we get a few more of those this year.

I'm expecting 10-6 to 11-5 this year, with a worse case scenario of 9-7/8-8. We still should be a playoff team.
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