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Alex Smith Thread

Originally posted by TexasNiner:
It is, but projecting based on his current stats and assuming some improvement overall but also a few more picks, his stat line would be somewhere in-between these two:

366 attempts, 236 completions, 64.5 completion percentage, 2,734 yards, 23 tds, 15ints, 90.8qbr

498 attempts, 293 completions, 58.8 completion percentage, 3,653 yards, 20 tds, 9ints, 87.5qbr

That first one is David Garrard, the second is Kyle Orton, both from last year.

Assuming that a similar stat line gets us 9-10 wins, a division title and either a win or at least a competitive loss in the playoffs, then is that good enough to build on for the near (2-4 years) future?

Does Smith playing a Garrard/Orton level, if it's enough for us to win, provide us an answer at QB?

Alex Smith already has better numbers than those right now, so if we assume improvements like you say, he should finish far better than those two. The Garrard and Orton QB ratings would be good for 12th and 14th in the nfl right now; Alex Smith is 8th.

He's playing at a higher level than those two right now, and improving.
[ Edited by nannite on Oct 3, 2011 at 12:15 PM ]
Originally posted by Kolohe:
Originally posted by Bluefalcon61:
Re-sign him now or we lose him to Minnesota or Miami next year when Singletary and Nolan assume permanent HC duties with each team.

After 4 weeks of football, too early, we've got 13 more weeks plus the playoffs and into the Superbowl to re-evaluate his position, and we could always franchise him.
*fixed*
Originally posted by niners4lyfe:
Originally posted by Kolohe:
Originally posted by Bluefalcon61:
Re-sign him now or we lose him to Minnesota or Miami next year when Singletary and Nolan assume permanent HC duties with each team.

After 4 weeks of football, too early, we've got 13 more weeks plus the playoffs and into the Superbowl to re-evaluate his position, and we could always franchise him.
*fixed*

If we make it to the superbowl this year, I will try out for the goldrush, id be so excited.
Originally posted by Kolohe:
Originally posted by Bluefalcon61:
Re-sign him now or we lose him to Minnesota or Miami next year when Singletary and Nolan assume permanent HC duties with each team.

After 4 weeks of football, too early, we've got 13 more weeks to re-evaluate his position, and we could always franchise him.

Too much money to pay for those numbers - even if it's for only 1 year. We should offer an extension before the season is over, but if we look like potential contenders in the playoffs, Alex might wait to see how he does in the post season.
So I know everyone is talking about Alex Smith ALONE, but a huge part of this was PROTECTION.

I told you all benching Chilo Rachal was the beginning. That was the beginning. Next we have to coach up Anthony Davis or seriously consider Alex Boone as competition.

Give Alex a decent, even a bit more time than he's had and he beats you with Josh Morgan and Michael Crabtree. Can't wait to see Edwards back.
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
And we continue the season roughly like the first 4 games. We go say, 4-2 in the division overall and win 4 of 7 of the remaining non-divisional games.

That gives us a 10 win season and almost assuredly the division title and puts us into the playoffs. Even if we only win 3 of the 7 non-divisional games, 9-7 gives us our first winning season in years and still probably the NFC West title.

And if Alex keeps his stats somewhere around where they are now, with maybe a few more TDs, but a few more INTs as well, and finishes the season with about 18-20 TDs, 8-10 INTs and 3K+ yards......

What then?

Would that be enough to warrant a new multi-year deal for Smith? Would you trust him to be the "future" of the team and think he's made that next step? Would it make him (if he would sign) a place holder for Kap or another highly drafted QB? Would you still want a proven vet (if one was available) to take us to the next level with a "top" QB?

Probably? I wouldn't be shocked if the Rams, Cards, and Seahawks COMBINED for 9 wins this year. And that's only because they're guaranteed to combine for 6 by playing each other.
Originally posted by NinerGM:
So I know everyone is talking about Alex Smith ALONE, but a huge part of this was PROTECTION.

I told you all benching Chilo Rachal was the beginning. That was the beginning. Next we have to coach up Anthony Davis or seriously consider Alex Boone as competition.

Give Alex a decent, even a bit more time than he's had and he beats you with Josh Morgan and Michael Crabtree. Can't wait to see Edwards back.

I thought Anthony Davis definitely settled down. I do agree with you that we need to coach him up....wait for it...


...for LT.
Originally posted by andes14:
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
And we continue the season roughly like the first 4 games. We go say, 4-2 in the division overall and win 4 of 7 of the remaining non-divisional games.

That gives us a 10 win season and almost assuredly the division title and puts us into the playoffs. Even if we only win 3 of the 7 non-divisional games, 9-7 gives us our first winning season in years and still probably the NFC West title.

And if Alex keeps his stats somewhere around where they are now, with maybe a few more TDs, but a few more INTs as well, and finishes the season with about 18-20 TDs, 8-10 INTs and 3K+ yards......

What then?

Would that be enough to warrant a new multi-year deal for Smith? Would you trust him to be the "future" of the team and think he's made that next step? Would it make him (if he would sign) a place holder for Kap or another highly drafted QB? Would you still want a proven vet (if one was available) to take us to the next level with a "top" QB?

Probably? I wouldn't be shocked if the Rams, Cards, and Seahawks COMBINED for 9 wins this year. And that's only because they're guaranteed to combine for 6 by playing each other.

Nothing is set in stone yet. The Rams and Cards both probably should have won this week and we have some tests yet to come. Way to early to assume anything is a given. Either our success or their failures.
Originally posted by nannite:
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
It is, but projecting based on his current stats and assuming some improvement overall but also a few more picks, his stat line would be somewhere in-between these two:

366 attempts, 236 completions, 64.5 completion percentage, 2,734 yards, 23 tds, 15ints, 90.8qbr

498 attempts, 293 completions, 58.8 completion percentage, 3,653 yards, 20 tds, 9ints, 87.5qbr

That first one is David Garrard, the second is Kyle Orton, both from last year.

Assuming that a similar stat line gets us 9-10 wins, a division title and either a win or at least a competitive loss in the playoffs, then is that good enough to build on for the near (2-4 years) future?

Does Smith playing a Garrard/Orton level, if it's enough for us to win, provide us an answer at QB?

Alex Smith already has better numbers than those right now, so if we assume improvements like you say, he should finish far better than those two. The Garrard and Orton QB ratings would be good for 12th and 14th in the nfl right now; Alex Smith is 8th.

He's playing at a higher level than those two right now, and improving.

That's only looking at QB rating and only after 4 weeks. Alex is also 27th in passing yardage and tied for 22nd in TDs. But all those stats are limited because it's a small sample size.

If he keeps it up, over the course of a year, he should have similar numbers to what Garrard/Orton had last year. His TDs and Yardage will increase, but he'll probably have a few more picks and see his QBR drop a bit.

Those are very fair numbers to assume for a full year. Not assuming he will tail off significantly, nor that he will suddenly put up amazing stats. Just that he'll continue to improve, put up solid passing/td numbers, but also have a few off days.

20ish TDs, around 10 picks, around 3K yards and maybe a 90 QBR is a very realistic projection based on what he's done so far this season. That puts hims squarely in the Garrard/Orton range.
[ Edited by TexasNiner on Oct 3, 2011 at 4:43 PM ]
IMO the key question is "if not Alex, then who?"

It's easy to say that we should get a better QB, but in reality it's extremely unlikely that any elite QB will be available. And I think the worst thing we could do is shell out $65M for a guy like Kevin Kolb. I'd rather have Alex on a reasonable contract and use cap space on other positions.

Unless Brady, Rogers, Brees, Rivers, or someone of that ilk is available...and fat chance of that happening...we gotta bring Alex back, and then hope to snag a top notch QB in the draft. That's the only way you can get one.
Originally posted by 49erfeeeever808:
Early on i said Smith needs two things to earn a contract extension.

1. Comeback player of the year (or at least be considered). this covers a lot of statistical bases (rating, consistency)

--I don't know who else is in the running right now

2. Win the divsion. (a must!!!)

--we're up two games and just got a huge win in the toughest part of the schedule.

Stafford will put that on lock down
lol, sorry but I still don't think of the 49ers as "Alex & the team". Makes it sound like he is some kind of star that carries them, which of course is not the case. Congrats to him for playing ok this year thus far though.
This discussion brings up Alex's coach and his prediction that when Alex "knows" what he is doing, and feels "comfortable" then he will be a dynamic QB. We may be seeing signs of that comfort level. I think better line play, Edwards back, and more Hunter and Gore support we will see more of the Alex Smith we have been hoping to see. I also think getting comfortable with Miller will give Smith a little more security as a backup. Lots of good signs from this game.
Originally posted by DONBIS:
Originally posted by 49erfeeeever808:
Early on i said Smith needs two things to earn a contract extension.

1. Comeback player of the year (or at least be considered). this covers a lot of statistical bases (rating, consistency)

--I don't know who else is in the running right now

2. Win the divsion. (a must!!!)

--we're up two games and just got a huge win in the toughest part of the schedule.

Stafford will put that on lock down

They have a comeback, and most improved player award right?

Id say Smith and Bowman have to be on the list for most improved.
Originally posted by English:
Originally posted by MSteitz468:
Yes, lock up Alex, Carlos, and probably Edwards

No probably about it. Lock up all three.

+1