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How much are Harbaugh, Edwards, West Coast Offense, etc. worth to Alex Smith's game?

  • Shemp
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Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by Shaj:
he'll have an average year. He'll beat 1 - 2 good teams and lose to the rest and he'll beat some bad teams handily. He'll pile up stats in garbage time and against bad teams. I'm guessing he throws for 2,800 yards, 16 TDs, 20 INTs, 60% passing efficiency (completion rating), and that's if he makes it to the end of the year.

I'm still waiting until he has a good full game and not just a quarter a game here that pads the stats and makes it appear like he was consistently that average.

The best way to describe Smith's play has been that he has been inconsistently playing well enough to show average stats. If you look at the context of all his stats, he has been a far below average QB.

agreed. The new ESPN QBR system completely supports your assertion, whereas the NFL QBR system leaves some margin of doubt. The ESPN QBR system does not give equal points for points scored in garbage time, among other things. Predictably, Smith's scores under this system fell off a cliff, putting him at the near bottom of NFL QBs.
Originally posted by captveg:
True. But even if he has as good a game as he did last year against Seattle (2nd game), people will just say "It was Seattle - let's see how he does against Dallas".

And then if he has a good game against Dallas they'll say "It was at home. Let's see how he does on the road."

And then if he has a good game against Cincinnati they'll say "It was the Bengals. Let's see how he does against the Eagles."

So, it'll take 4 straight good games for him to even be considered better. And that last one is the kicker - in Philly against that pass defense. So, three good games and a bad 4th one against one of the better pass defenses and we'll see "same old Alex" posts.

The cycle will never end, LOL.

Given that Steve Young didn't escape the fans' wrath until he won the SB (and some fans never forgave him after that either as they still believe that Montana would have won more SBs), I don't think Smith will ever avoid being booed from time to time even if he gets to the upper mid-tier. I'll not be surprised if Smith jumps ships after a successful season and the 49ers want him back.
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by Shaj:
he'll have an average year. He'll beat 1 - 2 good teams and lose to the rest and he'll beat some bad teams handily. He'll pile up stats in garbage time and against bad teams. I'm guessing he throws for 2,800 yards, 16 TDs, 20 INTs, 60% passing efficiency (completion rating), and that's if he makes it to the end of the year.

I'm still waiting until he has a good full game and not just a quarter a game here that pads the stats and makes it appear like he was consistently that average.

The best way to describe Smith's play has been that he has been inconsistently playing well enough to show average stats. If you look at the context of all his stats, he has been a far below average QB.


agreed. The new ESPN QBR system completely supports your assertion, whereas the NFL QBR system leaves some margin of doubt. The ESPN QBR system does not give equal points for points scored in garbage time, among other things. Predictably, Smith's scores under this system fell off a cliff, putting him at the near bottom of NFL QBs.

Does it take into account factors like the defense playing poorly and making a comeback effort "garbage time"? All and formulas are flawed, there are too many extenuating circumstances they do not allow for. The most reliable way to judge a qb is and always will be the eye test, and even that is subjective.
Originally posted by Joecool:
Yes, but I hate to say it...but it was the Hawks. I know, I know,...it has to be vs a legit team.


When it actually matters. Obviously, that has not yet happened.
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
When it actually matters. Obviously, that has not yet happened.

Every divisional game matters. In fact had the 49ers won the first game of the season last year against the Seahawks, they would have been in the playoffs.
I think it will make a 20%+ improvement on Smith's play. We saw a bit of this with the Braylan Edwards catch in preseason. Any QB will throw passes off mark but the quality team will be on the high end of the percentages of getting those errant throws. Every catch made increses the confidence that the team can get it done. Last year our WRs were letting all kinds of passes bounce of their hands. Quality teams would at least knoch those passes down if they couldn't catch them. So football is a team sport, all players have to do their part. Smith has to throw the ball as close to the receiver as possible, and the receiver as to aggressively go get it and make whatever adjustment it takes to get the ball. If the ball is anywhere near the receiver then catch the ball.

So with good receivers, good runners, good oline, good coaching it will make a huge impact on Smith. This team, and this coach, and this system are ideal for Smith. He wants to be coached, he is open to coaching, and we will see what kind of product Harbaugh can provide. In either case the team will benefit from all of the pieces coming together and the whole will be larger than the parts.
I think Smith will have his best statistical season this year. He has improved every year despite piss poor coaching so it's reasonable to assume that he'd improve even further with the best coaching he's had since Utah. I don't expect world beating numbers but I think he'll end up with an 85-89 QB rating....somewhere in the neighborhood of 19-23 TDs & 12-16 INT.

I think we'll go 8-8, reach the play offs, get booted...then Smith signs with the Dolphins or Redskins for 3-5 years and has an average career. Probably will reach the play offs a couples times then end up backing up young QBs. The end of his career will be very much like Kerry Collins.
Originally posted by LambdaChi49:
I think Smith will have his best statistical season this year. He has improved every year despite piss poor coaching so it's reasonable to assume that he'd improve even further with the best coaching he's had since Utah. I don't expect world beating numbers but I think he'll end up with an 85-89 QB rating....somewhere in the neighborhood of 19-23 TDs & 12-16 INT.

I think we'll go 8-8, reach the play offs, get booted...then Smith signs with the Dolphins or Redskins for 3-5 years and has an average career. Probably will reach the play offs a couples times then end up backing up young QBs. The end of his career will be very much like Kerry Collins.

We will be much better than 8-8 if Smith has an 89 rating.
After week 6 last year he threw only 1 INT versus 8 TD's. He is already improving and the lack of predictability of play-calling this year should help. Most of those who don't like him seem to view his whole career as all of the same, without considering the possibility of improvement.
Smith will have more completions under the WCO, but they will be mostly 5-6 yarders like we have seen in the preseason. Hopefully, Harbaugh will get his mechanics to the point where he won't be throwing the short ones over the receivers' heads or at their feet. Smith continues to look down his receivers, but that may not lead to as many INTs if the passes are shorter. Big question is whether Smith will ever adapt to a timing offense and release the ball before the receiver has completed his move.
Guess we'll find out won't we? In here you will only get conjecture and speculation. Those who hate and those who do not. So move along nothing to see here.
Originally posted by captveg:
Originally posted by Bluefalcon61:
effect on his boneheaded moments at critical junctures late in a close and meaningful game?

0.0%

Those were some boneheaded moments against the Saints last year, I tell ya.

Example of someone who gets it.
Originally posted by rapid4:
Smith will have more completions under the WCO, but they will be mostly 5-6 yarders like we have seen in the preseason. Hopefully, Harbaugh will get his mechanics to the point where he won't be throwing the short ones over the receivers' heads or at their feet. Smith continues to look down his receivers, but that may not lead to as many INTs if the passes are shorter. Big question is whether Smith will ever adapt to a timing offense and release the ball before the receiver has completed his move.

This offense could lead to more INT's by Smith because it depends on more "blind" quick throws rather than the 12 yard route/check down if not comfortable. In the prior offense, the check downs were in very safe locations. In the WCO, the checkdowns are not always in the flat and are more towards the short middle of at the hash marks 2-5 yarders. The INT he threw to the Raiders player is a perfect example of a misread.

I just hope he doesn't clamp up after a couple of misread INT's. He's one I could easily see clamp up and then resort back to "see the man open then throw" mentality.
Originally posted by NinerPrideinNJ:
Originally posted by Bluefalcon61:
effect on his boneheaded moments at critical junctures late in a close and meaningful game?

0.0%

This. When it matters most, this guy sh!ts the bed.

Example of someone who doesnt get it.
i expect a solid year from alex not a pb year but solid. the ol play will be huge in the first 4 weeks if they struggle we are starting in a hole again.