Joe Montana vs. Tom Brady

Originally posted by Thisguy:

Quote:
And what is the reason for not judging QBs on their wins and losses? If not then obviously Favre is the greatest QB ever because he holds all the records. Then Marino. Then Manning. Hell, if you didn't count wins and losses then Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman ... all of these HOF QBs would be second rate - none of their statistics approach Favre's or Manning's.

Great players are "great" because they win games, not simply pile up statistics.

Experiment: let's look at the records Favre holds and rank these players on a per-attempt basis. After all, Favre holds mostly counting stat rankings, and he's played (Sandlot voice) FORRRREVVVVVVER.

Favre holds the records for the following (excluding starts, wins and all that jazz...performance-based stats only here.):

Passing TDs, passing yards, competions, interceptions

On a per attempt basis, the players you listed rank as follows:

Yards:

Starr: 7.8 yards per attempt
Manning: 7.6 yards per attempt
Montana: 7.5 yards per attempt
Marino: 7.3 yards per attempt
Bradshaw: 7.2 yards per attempt
Favre: 7.1 yards per attempt
Aikman: 7 yards per attempt

Manning is still one of the best of all time in that ranking, behind only Starr. Favre falls way down.

Passing TDs:

Manning: 5.5% of passes thrown for TD
Bradshaw: 5.4% of passes thrown for TD
Montana: 5.1% of passes thrown for TD
Favre: 5% of passes thrown for TD
Marino: 5% of passes thrown for TD
Starr: 4.8% of passes thrown for TD
Aikman: 3.5% of passes thrown for TD

As a percentage of passes thrown for TDs, Manning is the leader of those QBs, followed by Bradshaw, and both of them are far ahead of the rest of the pack.

Completions:

Manning: 64.9% career completion percentage
Montana: 63.2% career completion percentage
Favre: 62% career completion percentage
Aikman: 61.5% career completion percentage
Marino: 59.4% career completion percentage
Starr: 57.4% career completion percentage
Bradshaw: 51.9% career completion percentage

And again, we see Manning as the leader of the pack here. He's pretty far ahead of everyone else as well. Of course, we have to considr in Starr and Bradshaw's cases that they played in a much different NFL that was much less friendly to the shor passing game, and thus they had to take more chances downfield with lower-percentage passes. You really can't compare completion percentage across eras in the NFL until the passing rules changed. (Also, as we all know, the all-time leader for completion percentage is none other than Chad Pennington.)

Interceptions...the most dubious of all Favre's records:

Montana: 2.6% of passes thrown for interceptions
Manning: 2.7% of passes thrown for interceptions
Aikman: 3% of passes thrown for interceptions
Marino: 3% of passes thrown for interceptions
Favre: 3.3% of passes thrown for interceptions
Starr: 4.4% of passes thrown for interceptions
Bradshaw: 5.4% of passes thrown for interception

Montana leads the pack here, with Manning close behind. Same caveat applies here for Starr and Bradshaw: much different era in the NFL's passing game. Downfield passes are less accurate and more likely to get picked off, explaining their ugly INT% numbers. For their times, those numbers were actually pretty good.

Conclusions to draw: Nobody compares to Favre on a counting stat basis, but on the basis of comparing QBs based on passes thrown, Favre isn't very good compared to those other QBs, whilst Manning is among the best, and Montana is up there as well. Maybe...hmm...this...this could be a revolutionary idea. I'm not sure if you're ready for it. Maybe...MAYBE...good stats correlate with winning. Maybe...just MAYBE...stats aren't just kind of made up and represent what actually happened on the field instead of the faulty human memory's perception of those events. MAYBE. Call me crazy. MAYBE I'm right, MAYBE I'm wrong.

Also, Troy Aikman was an over-rated QB and a terrible announcer, but that's neither here nor there.

I'm not clear if you are omitting QBs from the lists you've provided, because to say that Favre isn't that good compared to the other QBs you've listed would be misleading - according to those lists he's in the top 5 of virtually every per pass statistic.

It is a bit misleading to compare passing statistics across generations given that teams pass goal line a lot more than they used to and use 3 and 4 WR sets a lot more than they used to. But I agree, typically good statistics correlate with winning but the statistics you've sighted are for the regular season. Favre, Marino, Manning ... they all led their teams to multiple playoff births and great regular seasons but haven't performed as well in the playoffs than guys like Joe or Aikman (or even Bradshaw). Perhaps great stats can translate to wins (especially in today's pass-friendly NFL) but they don't necessarily correlate to playoff victories.

Originally posted by Thisguy:

Originally posted by fakers23:
Joe is still number 1 in my book... He never lost a superbowl..

Neither did Terry Bradshaw, and he'd been to just as many. So if "never losing any of the 4 Super Bowls you've been to" is your sole criteria, Terry Bradshaw is just as good as Joe Montana.

Also, let's get one thing straight. Joe Montana (and, for that matter, Terry Bradshaw) didn't win Super Bowls. No QB wins Super Bowls. TEAMS win Super Bowls. Football is a team sport, the QB is just an important player. To win the Super Bowl, you need more than just a QB...you need 10 other good guys on offense, good defense, and good special teams. It all has to come together.

When Montana was winning Super Bowls, his team's defense ranked in the following ways:

Super Bowl XVI: 2nd in points surrendered, 2nd in yards per game.
Super Bowl XIX: 1st in points surrendered, 10th in yards per game.
Super Bowl XXIII: 7th in points surrendered, 2nd in yards per game.
Super Bowl XXIV: 3rd in points surrendered, 4th in yards per game.

His team's rushing offense ranked in the following ways:

Super Bowl XVI: 28th in yards per rushing attempt.
Super Bowl XIX: 2nd in yards per rushing attempt.
Super Bowl XXIII: 2nd in yards per rushing attempt.
Super Bowl XXIV: 13th in yards per rushing attempt.

Everyone knows how good Bradshaw's defense and rushing attacks were, and they want to credit all 4 of the Steelers Super Bowls in the 70s to those things - in the process re-writing history and forgetting that Bradshaw was Super Bowl MVP for 2 of those games. But they conveniently forget just how good those aspects of the game were on Montana's 49ers. Montana was ALSO consistently working with a great defense and a good rushing attack...for two of the Super Bowls, a GREAT rushing attack.

NO QUARTERBACK WINS SUPER BOWLS - OR EVEN GAMES - SINGLE-HANDEDLY. TEAMS WIN SUPER BOWLS.

If it were all up to QBs, Dan Marino would have had at least 3 Super Bowl wins and Trent Dilfer would have 0.

As for the Roethlisberger wild card you guys are proposing, the members of this forum who doubt Roethlisberger as an elite NFL QB should check this out. It's a comparison of Montana to Roethlisberger in their first 7 years (Roethlisberger's entire career thus far) as starters. It may surprise you, and it may clear up the "Steelers are primarily a running team" misconception that pervades the national media narrative. These Steelers are eerily similar to the Montana 49ers.

The NFL is a pass first league. The rules are set up to allow for free releases, and no body contact down field for receivers, and QBs are protected now more than ever. It is difficult to compare eras - Montana's numbers SHOULD be worse than the elite QBs of today. Example - there were more players that three for 4,000 yards in 2009 than threw for 4,000 yards in the entire 1980s. It's just a different game. But comparing the Steelers in today's NFL with the Colts, Saints, Patriots ... they are more of a run-oriented offense (which isn't saying much given that their split is still approx. 50/50 over the past 5 years). Big Ben has proven he can light up the score board though ...

yup...its really hard to compare players from different eras. this question can only be answered by asking yourself who you'd rather have as your QB, and of course we'll get different answers but my pick is Joe. like mentioned earlier, the league has transitioned to a more finesse passing game. you cant go by stats. All i know is, there is no one i'd trust more with the ball in his hands than Cool Joe.

Originally posted by midrdan:

Originally posted by Thisguy:

Quote:
And what is the reason for not judging QBs on their wins and losses? If not then obviously Favre is the greatest QB ever because he holds all the records. Then Marino. Then Manning. Hell, if you didn't count wins and losses then Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman ... all of these HOF QBs would be second rate - none of their statistics approach Favre's or Manning's.

Great players are "great" because they win games, not simply pile up statistics.

Experiment: let's look at the records Favre holds and rank these players on a per-attempt basis. After all, Favre holds mostly counting stat rankings, and he's played (Sandlot voice) FORRRREVVVVVVER.

Favre holds the records for the following (excluding starts, wins and all that jazz...performance-based stats only here.):

Passing TDs, passing yards, competions, interceptions

On a per attempt basis, the players you listed rank as follows:

Yards:

Starr: 7.8 yards per attempt
Manning: 7.6 yards per attempt
Montana: 7.5 yards per attempt
Marino: 7.3 yards per attempt
Bradshaw: 7.2 yards per attempt
Favre: 7.1 yards per attempt
Aikman: 7 yards per attempt

Manning is still one of the best of all time in that ranking, behind only Starr. Favre falls way down.

Passing TDs:

Manning: 5.5% of passes thrown for TD
Bradshaw: 5.4% of passes thrown for TD
Montana: 5.1% of passes thrown for TD
Favre: 5% of passes thrown for TD
Marino: 5% of passes thrown for TD
Starr: 4.8% of passes thrown for TD
Aikman: 3.5% of passes thrown for TD

As a percentage of passes thrown for TDs, Manning is the leader of those QBs, followed by Bradshaw, and both of them are far ahead of the rest of the pack.

Completions:

Manning: 64.9% career completion percentage
Montana: 63.2% career completion percentage
Favre: 62% career completion percentage
Aikman: 61.5% career completion percentage
Marino: 59.4% career completion percentage
Starr: 57.4% career completion percentage
Bradshaw: 51.9% career completion percentage

And again, we see Manning as the leader of the pack here. He's pretty far ahead of everyone else as well. Of course, we have to considr in Starr and Bradshaw's cases that they played in a much different NFL that was much less friendly to the shor passing game, and thus they had to take more chances downfield with lower-percentage passes. You really can't compare completion percentage across eras in the NFL until the passing rules changed. (Also, as we all know, the all-time leader for completion percentage is none other than Chad Pennington.)

Interceptions...the most dubious of all Favre's records:

Montana: 2.6% of passes thrown for interceptions
Manning: 2.7% of passes thrown for interceptions
Aikman: 3% of passes thrown for interceptions
Marino: 3% of passes thrown for interceptions
Favre: 3.3% of passes thrown for interceptions
Starr: 4.4% of passes thrown for interceptions
Bradshaw: 5.4% of passes thrown for interception

Montana leads the pack here, with Manning close behind. Same caveat applies here for Starr and Bradshaw: much different era in the NFL's passing game. Downfield passes are less accurate and more likely to get picked off, explaining their ugly INT% numbers. For their times, those numbers were actually pretty good.

Conclusions to draw: Nobody compares to Favre on a counting stat basis, but on the basis of comparing QBs based on passes thrown, Favre isn't very good compared to those other QBs, whilst Manning is among the best, and Montana is up there as well. Maybe...hmm...this...this could be a revolutionary idea. I'm not sure if you're ready for it. Maybe...MAYBE...good stats correlate with winning. Maybe...just MAYBE...stats aren't just kind of made up and represent what actually happened on the field instead of the faulty human memory's perception of those events. MAYBE. Call me crazy. MAYBE I'm right, MAYBE I'm wrong.

Also, Troy Aikman was an over-rated QB and a terrible announcer, but that's neither here nor there.

I'm not clear if you are omitting QBs from the lists you've provided, because to say that Favre isn't that good compared to the other QBs you've listed would be misleading - according to those lists he's in the top 5 of virtually every per pass statistic.

It is a bit misleading to compare passing statistics across generations given that teams pass goal line a lot more than they used to and use 3 and 4 WR sets a lot more than they used to. But I agree, typically good statistics correlate with winning but the statistics you've sighted are for the regular season. Favre, Marino, Manning ... they all led their teams to multiple playoff births and great regular seasons but haven't performed as well in the playoffs than guys like Joe or Aikman (or even Bradshaw). Perhaps great stats can translate to wins (especially in today's pass-friendly NFL) but they don't necessarily correlate to playoff victories.

I'm not omitting QBs, I'm simply using only the QBs that the post I quoted used.

Of all-time, Favre ranks thusly in those categories:

63rd all-time in yards per attempt.
17th all-time in completion percentage.
57th all-time in interception percentage.
53rd all-time in touchdown percentage.

I also made a note of how it's misleading to compare passing stats across generations. Maybe you just missed that part.

Your postseason question got me wondering, however. Again, using the QBs the post I quoted used, how do they stack up in the postseason over their career, on a per-attempt basis?

Yards:

Bradshaw: 8.41 yards per attempt in the postseason (Reg. season: 7.2)
Starr: 8.23 yards per attempt in the postseason (Reg. season: 7.8)
Montana: 7.86 yards per attempt in the postseason (Reg. season: 7.5)
Aikman: 7.67 yards per attempt in the postseason (Reg. season: 7)
Manning: 7.51 yards per attempt in the postseason (Reg. season: 7.6)
Favre: 7.40 yards per attempt in the postseason (Reg. season: 7.1)
Marino: 6.56 yards per attempt in the postseason (Reg. season: 7)

Note the variance between regular and post-season. Bradshaw's stats really jump, as do Starr's and Aikman's. Marino's really fall. Contrary to reputation, Favre gets better in the postseason and Manning stays at about the same level.

Touchdowns:

Starr: 7% of passes thrown for TDs. (Reg. season: 4.8%)
Bradshaw: 6.5% of passes thrown for TDs. (Reg. season: 5.4%)
Montana: 6% of passes thrown for TDs. (Reg. season: 5.1%)
Favre: 5.6% of passes thrown for TDs. (Reg. season: 5%)
Aikman: 4.6% of passes thrown for TDs. (Reg. season: 3.5%)
Marino: 4.7% of passes thrown for TDs. (Reg. season: 5%)
Manning: 4% of passes thrown for TDs. (Reg. season: 5.5%)

Again, there's a variance here. On this list, every QB throws for a higher percentage of TDs in the postseason than in the regular season except for Marino and Manning. Manning really falls here, while Marino is just about the same.

Completions:

Aikman: 63.7% of passes completed in the postseason (Reg. season: 61.5%)
Manning: 63.1% of passes completed in the postseason (Reg. season: 64.9%)
Montana: 62.7% of passes completed in the postseason (Reg. season: 63.2%)
Starr: 61% of passes completed in the postseason (Reg. season: 57.4%)
Favre: 60.8% of passes completed in the postseason (Reg. season: 62%)
Bradshaw: 57.2% of passes completed in the postseason (Reg. season: 51.9%)
Marino: 56% of passes completed in the postseason (Reg. season: 59.4%)

Not nearly as much variance here. All these players stay pretty close to their career averages, aside from Bradshaw, who improves significantly, and Marino, who does significantly worse.

Interceptions:

Starr: 1.4% of passes intecepted in the postseason (Reg. season: 4.4%)
Manning: 2.6% of passes intecepted in the postseason (Reg. season: 2.7%)
Montana: 2.9% of passes intecepted in the postseason (Reg. season: 2.6%)
Aikman: 3.4% of passes intecepted in the postseason (Reg. season: 3%)
Marino: 3.5% of passes intecepted in the postseason (Reg. season: 3%)
Favre: 3.8% of passes intecepted in the postseason (Reg. season: 3.3%)
Bradshaw: 5.7% of passes intecepted in the postseason (Reg. season: 5.4%)

This stat stayed remarkably consistent as well, aside from Favre and Marino, each throwing .5% more INTs in the postseason, and Starr, who apparently turned into a completely mistake-free machine in the postseason. Manning really defies the narrative here. He doesn't turn into the turnover machine the media likes to depict him as at all. In fact, he actually turns it over slightly less in the postseason.

Conclusions to draw here:

1. Even in the post-season, where Montana was supposedly at his very best, he didn't make it to #1 in any of these lists. In fact, he finished 3rd in all of them, including the interceptions one. That "never threw an INT in the Super Bowl" stat really makes people forget about all the other postseason INTs he threw.

2. Aside from touchdown passes, Manning performs almost exactly like he does in the regular season when he gets to the postseason. The stories of him falling off a cliff once he reaches the playoffs are greatly exaggerated. More likely, the Colts lose because they have a horrible defense.

3. We shouldn't take any of these stats too seriously at all. The small sample size caveat is fully in effect. The QB with the most postseason games on this list is Favre with 24. In that few games, one bad game or one good game can really skew the stats, which is why career numbers are a much better way to look at things. In contrast to the low number of postseason games, the QB who played in the fewest regular season games on this list was Aikman, with 165 games played. It's pretty easy to tell which sample gives a more accurate gauge of a player's abilities.

Originally posted by midrdan:
The NFL is a pass first league.

True. The same was also true when Montana played.

Originally posted by midrdan:
The rules are set up to allow for free releases, and no body contact down field for receivers,

True. Also true when Montana played.

Originally posted by midrdan:
and QBs are protected now more than ever.

Seems true anecdotally. Maybe later today I'll look at the number of roughing the passer penalties called in the 1980s vs those called in the last 3 years (since the "Brady Rule" has been instituted) and compare. That should give a rough estimate of whether it's actually true or not.

Originally posted by midrdan:
It is difficult to compare eras - Montana's numbers SHOULD be worse than the elite QBs of today. Example - there were more players that three for 4,000 yards in 2009 than threw for 4,000 yards in the entire 1980s.

False.

There were 10 players that threw for 4,000+ yards in 2009: Matt Schaub, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Brett Favre and Eli Manning.

In the 1980s there were 14:

1981: Dan Fouts
1983: Lynn Dickey, Bill Kenney
1984: Dan Marino (over 5000, even), Bill Lomax, Phil Simms
1985: Dan Marino
1986: Dan Marino, Jay Schroeder
1988: Dan Marino
1989: Don Majkowski, Jim Everett

If you only count one of Dan Marino's seasons of 4000+ yards, you get 9 passers with 4000+ yards in the 1980s, which is less than in 2009. But Marino did it more than once. To not credit him with that is disingenuous.

Those 4000+ yard passers, by the way, all did it in about the same number of attempts as the 4000 yard passers in 2009. The rules haven't changed too drastically, just the playcalling.

It's just a different game. But comparing the Steelers in today's NFL with the Colts, Saints, Patriots ... they are more of a run-oriented offense (which isn't saying much given that their split is still approx. 50/50 over the past 5 years). Big Ben has proven he can light up the score board though ...
The split doesn't really mean the same as "run FIRST" or "pass FIRST." Repeated analysis of this idea in-depth has shown that teams tend to get ahead by passing, then run later in the game to eat up the clock. That's exactly what the Steelers do as well. They have a pretty even split, but if you look at when they're running vs when they're passing, they pass to get ahead and run to chew up the clock...same as any other team.

In fact, most winning teams have more rushing attempts than passing attempts, even following that same formula. The teams with more passing attempts tend to be bottom-feeders, because they're not passing to get ahead...they're passing because they're always playing catch-up and can't afford to run.

Originally posted by Thisguy:

Originally posted by midrdan:
The NFL is a pass first league.

True. The same was also true when Montana played.

Originally posted by midrdan:
The rules are set up to allow for free releases, and no body contact down field for receivers,

True. Also true when Montana played.

Originally posted by midrdan:
and QBs are protected now more than ever.

Seems true anecdotally. Maybe later today I'll look at the number of roughing the passer penalties called in the 1980s vs those called in the last 3 years (since the "Brady Rule" has been instituted) and compare. That should give a rough estimate of whether it's actually true or not.

Originally posted by midrdan:
It is difficult to compare eras - Montana's numbers SHOULD be worse than the elite QBs of today. Example - there were more players that three for 4,000 yards in 2009 than threw for 4,000 yards in the entire 1980s.

False.

There were 10 players that threw for 4,000+ yards in 2009: Matt Schaub, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Brett Favre and Eli Manning.

In the 1980s there were 14:

1981: Dan Fouts
1983: Lynn Dickey, Bill Kenney
1984: Dan Marino (over 5000, even), Bill Lomax, Phil Simms
1985: Dan Marino
1986: Dan Marino, Jay Schroeder
1988: Dan Marino
1989: Don Majkowski, Jim Everett

If you only count one of Dan Marino's seasons of 4000+ yards, you get 9 passers with 4000+ yards in the 1980s, which is less than in 2009. But Marino did it more than once. To not credit him with that is disingenuous.

Since a player can only throw for 4,000 yards in a season, once per season, it's not disingenuous at all. Even though his fact was wrong (assuming your data is correct) you can only count Marino once because the QBs that did it in 2009 can only be counted once.

are we now comparing QB's that threw for 4k+ in 2009 to the entire decade of 1980??

Piss on Tom Brady... he is a sissy and if you guys do not remeber this is the 49erswebzone.com JOE MONTANA is the best QB to grace a field EVER.

[ Edited by Stevec9932 on Feb 1, 2011 at 11:33:30 ]

Originally posted by Sinsation:
are we now comparing QB's that threw for 4k+ in 2009 to the entire decade of 1980??

Yeah, that comparison doesn't make sense.

Originally posted by Stevec9932:
Piss on Tom Brady... he is a sissy and if you guys do not remeber this is the 49erswebzone.com JOE MONTANA is the best QB to grace a field EVER.

THIS!

Last time I checked. Brady does not have 4 SuperBowl rings! Also, lest we forget, he also took KC to their ONLY AFC title game appearance since 1969 back in 93. I like Brady. Dude is a warrior, but to compare him to Montana is just silly talk!

Originally posted by GhostofJimmyDean:

Originally posted by Sinsation:
are we now comparing QB's that threw for 4k+ in 2009 to the entire decade of 1980??

Yeah, that comparison doesn't make sense.

The comparison is one of eras, not necessarily individual players. The point I was trying to make is that Montana's regular season statistics are not going to compare with the stats of QBs playing today because the game has changed. Marino set the single season TD record in 1985? It took nearly 20 years for someone to break it (Manning) but Manning's record was broken in 3 years by Brady. I'm just tired of people pointing to Brady's 2007 season as the "tie breaker" in this debate - yes, he had an amazing year - but when nearly a third of the QBs in the league today are putting up numbers that 25 years ago would have been a hands down MVP season, it's hard for me to simply look at the statistics and conclude that Brady (or Manning) is better than Montana.

Why is this topic still being debated??

If you are arguing for Tom Brady, please show yourself the f**king door and don't let it hit you on the way out! Go root for the cheaters.

QBs may be more protected now than in the 80s but anyone who watched Rogers get clobbered against the Bears (think that was the game) must know how tough the job is...still! He was almost totally out of it for the rest of the game, playing pretty well but not his normal zippy self. That pounding takes a lot out of you. That is the advantage the bigger guys have...Ben and Peyton.

Joe Montana is god in my house...dont give a s**t if Bwady wins 5 more.

Its simple, Joe is better.