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Implications of a 16-point offense?

"So, here's the deal now...."

Can this be a playoff team with a 16-point-per-game offense? It sure looks to me that most games are going to be very close to a single offensive TD and 3 Nedney field goals, Time-of-possession will likely exceed 30 minutes, somewhat limiting the opponent's offensive plays. But unless the club comes up with a defensive or special teams TD, bumping the overall points to the 23 PPG category, 16 PPG will likely have to do.

Personally, I don't think that 16 PPG from the offense will get the club beyond a 7-9 or 8-8 record. I just don't see a passing offense, without a fully healthy and practiced Jones and Crabtree. Playing catch-up, which will have to be done on occasion, doesn't look realistic. The QB and WR are he same ol', same ol'.

I'm not worried about the D, but the apparent lack of a balanced offense looks like the club's Achilles heel to me. I don't believe that the club is "holding back" offensively in these exhibitions. What you see is what you're going to get with Jimmy Raye at the helm. Anyone else feeling offensively challenged?
  • nekst
  • Info N/A
If we can run the ball against teams like we did against the Oakland Raiders, I think we can score more than 16 PPG, control the clock even longer and give our defense more of a breather. Whether or not we have been "holding back" wouldn't matter.

Wishful thinking I know.
Its too early to assume that we will get 16 pts/game. The Raider D had problems against the run last year. So they are a "lite" gauge of how successful our running game will be against a stout D.

Like everybody else, I sure hope that our passing attack develops into a force before the first half of the season ends.

If not, your prediction of a 6-8 win season makes perfect sense.

Lastly, I like how hard the 49ers are playing under Singletary. Whatever talent we have, Singletary will bring out the best in them.
  • kem99
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 581
Originally posted by jimbagg:
"So, here's the deal now...."

Can this be a playoff team with a 16-point-per-game offense? It sure looks to me that most games are going to be very close to a single offensive TD and 3 Nedney field goals, Time-of-possession will likely exceed 30 minutes, somewhat limiting the opponent's offensive plays. But unless the club comes up with a defensive or special teams TD, bumping the overall points to the 23 PPG category, 16 PPG will likely have to do.

Personally, I don't think that 16 PPG from the offense will get the club beyond a 7-9 or 8-8 record. I just don't see a passing offense, without a fully healthy and practiced Jones and Crabtree. Playing catch-up, which will have to be done on occasion, doesn't look realistic. The QB and WR are he same ol', same ol'.

I'm not worried about the D, but the apparent lack of a balanced offense looks like the club's Achilles heel to me. I don't believe that the club is "holding back" offensively in these exhibitions. What you see is what you're going to get with Jimmy Raye at the helm. Anyone else feeling offensively challenged?

The short answer to your question is, no, averaging 16 points per game will not be enough to get them to the playoffs. 16 points per game probably won't get them to 7-9.

With that said, the 49ers (and their opponents) are "holding back." Gore has been in on 6 plays in 2 games. The same goes for Bruce. The QBs have been shuffled. As far as we know, they are not game planning for a team or certainly not to the extent they will be during the regular season. Its also safe to assume that some play calls now are different than they would be during the season. That can cut both ways in terms of being aggressive or conservative but it still means one shouldn't read too much into what you're seeing in terms of the overall offense.
i'm worried about our offense. i was very suspect when we signed raye to run our offense. the o-line needs work. it's not quite there. moran norris has not impressed. we don't even have a qb. i know hill will be the starter but let's face it, he wouldn't be starting anywhere else. our wr's are good. we just need a few more pieces. we are seriously looking & 7-9. we have a hard schedule. seattle will be improved, and arizona is still tuff.
Dont you think its a little early to assume we will lose 5 points a game from last years offense based on two preseason games? I actually think its boderline ridiculous to make that proclamation this early especially with the 0 total mins played by our #1 offense together. Lets at least see Hill, Bruce, and Gore play together before we say we will have a bottom 5 offense.
Originally posted by natrone06:
Dont you think its a little early to assume we will lose 5 points a game from last years offense based on two preseason games? I actually think its boderline ridiculous to make that proclamation this early especially with the 0 total mins played by our #1 offense together. Lets at least see Hill, Bruce, and Gore play together before we say we will have a bottom 5 offense.

Not sure that I am forecasting a "fall-off" in offense from 2008. Looking at total points scored by th team is not an accurate measure of the offense itself. If the club averaged 21 PPG in 2009, how many of them were generated by the D or ST? For example, ball is picked and returned to the opponents 20. Offense dcoes not make a 1st down and Nedney comes in to kick a FG. Those are NOT offense-generated points in my book. I'm talking about offensive drives where the drive starts outside of FG range, or the offense takes gimme FG field position and converts that into a TD, instead of the gimme FG.

Is it unreasonable to expect the club's offense to generate points on 4 of the 9 or so possessions per game, and for only 1 of 4 of those scores to be a TD? Is it unreasonable to expect that of those 5 non-scoring possessions, 1-2 will result in turnovers and 3-4 will result in Andy Lee punts? With a run-heavy offense, there will be fewer offensive possessions per game (for BOTH the Niners and their opponents), so 9 or so offensive possessions per game seems about right to me.

Not trying to be a pessimest. Just trying to promote a little discussion on what I see as the club's primary barrier to the playoffs. Would love to see this offense generate 27 PPG, plus a few more points from the D or ST. Just don't yet see where that might come from. And as for Gore not playing, do you really think that he would be doing any better than Coffee, Robinson and Sheets have done a yards-per-carry basis?
Its the preseason. Gore hasn't played. Hell our first string hasn't played a full half yet so 16ppg means nothing. Our offense is better than it was last year, especially after Crabtree signs(which he will). Its the preseason. Just ask the Lions of last year how much numbers mean in the preseason.
Originally posted by 49wyztoscore:
Its the preseason. Gore hasn't played. Hell our first string hasn't played a full half yet so 16ppg means nothing. Our offense is better than it was last year, especially after Crabtree signs(which he will). Its the preseason. Just ask the Lions of last year how much numbers mean in the preseason.

We will have a better idea 3-4 games into the season. I can't wait to get the regular season started!
Originally posted by jimbagg:
Originally posted by natrone06:
Dont you think its a little early to assume we will lose 5 points a game from last years offense based on two preseason games? I actually think its boderline ridiculous to make that proclamation this early especially with the 0 total mins played by our #1 offense together. Lets at least see Hill, Bruce, and Gore play together before we say we will have a bottom 5 offense.

Not sure that I am forecasting a "fall-off" in offense from 2008. Looking at total points scored by th team is not an accurate measure of the offense itself. If the club averaged 21 PPG in 2009, how many of them were generated by the D or ST? For example, ball is picked and returned to the opponents 20. Offense dcoes not make a 1st down and Nedney comes in to kick a FG. Those are NOT offense-generated points in my book. I'm talking about offensive drives where the drive starts outside of FG range, or the offense takes gimme FG field position and converts that into a TD, instead of the gimme FG.

Is it unreasonable to expect the club's offense to generate points on 4 of the 9 or so possessions per game, and for only 1 of 4 of those scores to be a TD? Is it unreasonable to expect that of those 5 non-scoring possessions, 1-2 will result in turnovers and 3-4 will result in Andy Lee punts? With a run-heavy offense, there will be fewer offensive possessions per game (for BOTH the Niners and their opponents), so 9 or so offensive possessions per game seems about right to me.

Not trying to be a pessimest. Just trying to promote a little discussion on what I see as the club's primary barrier to the playoffs. Would love to see this offense generate 27 PPG, plus a few more points from the D or ST. Just don't yet see where that might come from. And as for Gore not playing, do you really think that he would be doing any better than Coffee, Robinson and Sheets have done a yards-per-carry basis?


Gore might not do any better than the yards per carry, but with the tank in the game the defense will focus on Gore alot more than coffee or sheets, thus opening up passing lanes or man coverage where can exploit the defense.
Teams are going to stack the box and we don't have a passing game. Good luck on 16 points. We've already played the Raiders and won't see the Lions until 12/27 so where are you going to get those 16 points. Maybe if the D picks off a pass every game and runs it in for a TD we'll get 10 - 13pts. Nedney to the rescue with 2 field goals. Maybe Raye is sand bagging on the passing game and is trying to not show any air attack during preseason but I would doubt it.
  • jerryricefan80
  • Info N/A
Pretty sure about a quarter of our total offense is installed at this point. Plus the lack of starters and a starting QB. The offense will need a game or two to establish some rhythm. We will average more that 16pts per game during the regular season.
Were gonna have a 15-point defense
Originally posted by 49wyztoscore:
Its the preseason. Gore hasn't played. Hell our first string hasn't played a full half yet so 16ppg means nothing. Our offense is better than it was last year, especially after Crabtree signs(which he will). Its the preseason. Just ask the Lions of last year how much numbers mean in the preseason.

All that really needs to be said. And it's not even the 3rd preseason game, where the starters get a chance to get extended PT and try to work into a rhythm.

Nothing to be alarmed about yet.