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QBs 30 and under: Power Rankings top 20

This list is bogus. It gets VERY subjective after Rodgers as it is not statistcally based. I would start it like this:

1. Rodgers
2. Ryan
3. RG3
4. Rothlisberger
5. Kaepernick
6. Smith
7. Luck
8. Newton
9. Dalton
10. Stafford
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
The Luck/CK debate in another thread got me thinking about the QB landscape in the NFL going forward. Here's a quick stab at a rankings. Bring it on with some input and criticism! I had to double-check some ages I wasn't sure on, so FYI here are some notable too-old-for-this-list omissions: Drew Brees (33), Tony Romo (32), Phillip Rivers (31), Matt Shaub (31), Eli Manning (31).

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Andrew Luck
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Colin Kaepernick
5. Robert Griffin III
6. Matt Ryan
7. Russell Wilson
8. Cam Newton
9. Matthew Stafford
10. Joe Flacco
11. Josh Freeman
12. Andy Dalton
13. Alex Smith
14. Jay Cutler
15. Sam Bradford
16. Jake Locker
17. Ryan Tannehill
18. Nick Foles
19. Christian Ponder
20. Ryan Fitzpatrick

Worst list ever...

RG3 too low.
Kaep too high
Freeman over Alex Smith???

pls go
Originally posted by blm7754:
This list is bogus. It gets VERY subjective after Rodgers as it is not statistcally based. I would start it like this:

1. Rodgers
2. Ryan
3. RG3
4. Rothlisberger
5. Kaepernick
6. Smith
7. Luck
8. Newton
9. Dalton
10. Stafford

You (and the prior poster who disagreed with Luck over Big Ben) and I seem to be using different criteria. Which is fair enough--I didn't lay out any specific criteria in the OP and you're free to make your own list.

That that said, I was going for something more akin to Barnwell's "Trade Value Rankings," but limiting it to QBs under 30. Past stats and accolades are obviously important to the extent they tell us about a QB's ability, but obviously I'm going to put the relatively unproven Andrew Luck over someone like Stafford (which you agree with in your rankings) despite the fact that Stafford has WAY more yards, TDs, etc.

But 32 out of 32 GMs would take Luck over Stafford. I would apply the same justification to having Luck over Big Ben in my list. To build a team around from this point forward, anyone would take Luck over Big Ben--probably 32 out of 32 again.

Frankly I think it's crazy that you would have Luck below Alex Smith, lol. I feel pretty strongly that at least 75% of GMs would have Luck over Griffin, but obviously it's still early on that and each guy has supporters in that debate. Finally, you are shockingly high on Ryan, but okay.
Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
The Luck/CK debate in another thread got me thinking about the QB landscape in the NFL going forward. Here's a quick stab at a rankings. Bring it on with some input and criticism! I had to double-check some ages I wasn't sure on, so FYI here are some notable too-old-for-this-list omissions: Drew Brees (33), Tony Romo (32), Phillip Rivers (31), Matt Shaub (31), Eli Manning (31).

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Andrew Luck
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Colin Kaepernick
5. Robert Griffin III
6. Matt Ryan
7. Russell Wilson
8. Cam Newton
9. Matthew Stafford
10. Joe Flacco
11. Josh Freeman
12. Andy Dalton
13. Alex Smith
14. Jay Cutler
15. Sam Bradford
16. Jake Locker
17. Ryan Tannehill
18. Nick Foles
19. Christian Ponder
20. Ryan Fitzpatrick

Worst list ever...

RG3 too low.
Kaep too high
Freeman over Alex Smith???

pls go

I adjusted RGIII to #4 after being convinced it was probably homerism that had me ranking CK as a better prospect at this point. I think I could be right 5 years from now, but CK hasn't proven enough. Either way, you think 4/5 is too low? I thought the easiest part of this list was the top 3. No way Griffin belongs ranked ahead of Rodgers, Luck, or Ben.

I really don't understand your indignation over my putting Freeman over Smith. Here are their career numbers for you to peruse:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FreeJo00.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03.htm

Aside from fact that Freeman is right on Alex's heels in yards and TDs despite playing 24 fewer games, I stand by my judgment that due to his far superior physical tools and younger age, Freeman is currently a higher-rated QB building block around the league than Smith is.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by blm7754:
This list is bogus. It gets VERY subjective after Rodgers as it is not statistcally based. I would start it like this:

1. Rodgers
2. Ryan
3. RG3
4. Rothlisberger
5. Kaepernick
6. Smith
7. Luck
8. Newton
9. Dalton
10. Stafford

You (and the prior poster who disagreed with Luck over Big Ben) and I seem to be using different criteria. Which is fair enough--I didn't lay out any specific criteria in the OP and you're free to make your own list.

That that said, I was going for something more akin to Barnwell's "Trade Value Rankings," but limiting it to QBs under 30. Past stats and accolades are obviously important to the extent they tell us about a QB's ability, but obviously I'm going to put the relatively unproven Andrew Luck over someone like Stafford (which you agree with in your rankings) despite the fact that Stafford has WAY more yards, TDs, etc.

But 32 out of 32 GMs would take Luck over Stafford. I would apply the same justification to having Luck over Big Ben in my list. To build a team around from this point forward, anyone would take Luck over Big Ben--probably 32 out of 32 again.

Frankly I think it's crazy that you would have Luck below Alex Smith, lol. I feel pretty strongly that at least 75% of GMs would have Luck over Griffin, but obviously it's still early on that and each guy has supporters in that debate. Finally, you are shockingly high on Ryan, but okay.

Ok... if trade value is your criteria then I understand and mostly agree with your list. My list is just who is the best. GMs highly value youth and potential. But if you are a playoff contender, you dont really care about potential. You care about ability, efficiency, poise, and decision making. By that criteria, Luck, RG3, and Newton do not rank as high as more proven and experienced vets.

Honestly, I havent seen all that much of Luck. So my ranking of him is pretty uninformed. But he is a rookie. I'd rather have Smith at the helm in the playoffs than Luck. But I agree, based on trade value Luck is clearly more valuable based on his potential.

I am high on Ryan because he leads one of the most potent offenses in the NFC. He can sling it as good as Rodgers and Brees IMO.

I am not high on Stafford because he has Megatron. We exposed him as a guy that is unable to make things happen when you take away his top target. Compare him to a guy like Brady, who has very little talent at WR but can kill you no matter who you focus your defense on.
Originally posted by blm7754:
Ok... if trade value is your criteria then I understand and mostly agree with your list. My list is just who is the best. GMs highly value youth and potential. But if you are a playoff contender, you dont really care about potential. You care about ability, efficiency, poise, and decision making. By that criteria, Luck, RG3, and Newton do not rank as high as more proven and experienced vets.

Honestly, I havent seen all that much of Luck. So my ranking of him is pretty uninformed. But he is a rookie. I'd rather have Smith at the helm in the playoffs than Luck. But I agree, based on trade value Luck is clearly more valuable based on his potential.

I am high on Ryan because he leads one of the most potent offenses in the NFC. He can sling it as good as Rodgers and Brees IMO.

I am not high on Stafford because he has Megatron. We exposed him as a guy that is unable to make things happen when you take away his top target. Compare him to a guy like Brady, who has very little talent at WR but can kill you no matter who you focus your defense on.

Sorry for the disconnect. Trade value isn't precisely what I was going for, but it's a decent proxy. I was basically going for who will have the best next 7-8 seasons. I thought just saying "30 and under" would be a more concise way to say the same thing, but I realize it was ambiguous. Obviously if you are talking about a playoff game right now, the ones closer to 30 would have an advantage over the younger guys simply because of experience.
Tolzien should be number 1
Brandon "The Rook" Weeden barely fits this criteria. He has a few more games to prove himself before he doesn't qualify anymore lol
Hell no to big Ben. Injured all the time, hasn't played well in two seasons.
all i know is that joe flacco sucks
Originally posted by Janitor:
Hell no to big Ben. Injured all the time, hasn't played well in two seasons.

Injuries are a problem, but Ben has been an elite QB for a while and figures to still be for the next several years. We know he can lead a team to a title with a decent team around him.
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
all i know is that joe flacco sucks

Not sure what the deal is with Flacco, but I have a hard time envisioning him on a championship team. He's had great defenses and an elite RB for years now.
Originally posted by YungAce:
Brandon "The Rook" Weeden barely fits this criteria. He has a few more games to prove himself before he doesn't qualify anymore lol

Yeah, pretty funny that the Browns drafted a franchise QB who will be 30 almost immediately.

Weeden, along with guys like Gabbert and Sanchez, is certainly one of the biggest names missing from my list. I think Sanchez has proven himself sucky for long enough that his prospects going forward are worse than the guys at the bottom of my list--guys like Foles and Fitzpatrick and Ponder. Sanchez MIGHT have one more year as an NFL starting QB. Weeden and Gabbert, unless something changes, seem like flat-out busts at this point. Still relatively early for both of them, but I think I'd feel better with youngsters like Tannehill or Locker on my team, or a vet like Fitzpatrick while looking for a replacement young prospect.
  • vaden
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 3,098
Rodgers is clearly in a class by himself, and I think Roethlisberger has the 2nd tier to himself, and after those two, just based on performance I don't think there's any QB under 30 who is better than Alex right now. I think he belongs in the 3rd tier with Ryan. Need more of a sample size before I put Luck, RG3, Wilson and Kaep in that tier. As we've seen with Cam and Freeman, sometimes these young QBs regress after defenses get a book on them. I doubt that will happen with Luck, Wilson or Kaep, but I do think RG3 will regress. He struggles a lot on 3rd down and I don't see him making the reads that those other 3 do. Notice also how much better Kaep and Wilson are at protecting themselves while still running well down field.

Flacco and Cutler might be good one day if they stop deluding themselves that they are elite and everyone else is the problem.
Originally posted by vaden:
Rodgers is clearly in a class by himself, and I think Roethlisberger has the 2nd tier to himself, and after those two, just based on performance I don't think there's any QB under 30 who is better than Alex right now. I think he belongs in the 3rd tier with Ryan. Need more of a sample size before I put Luck, RG3, Wilson and Kaep in that tier. As we've seen with Cam and Freeman, sometimes these young QBs regress after defenses get a book on them. I doubt that will happen with Luck, Wilson or Kaep, but I do think RG3 will regress. He struggles a lot on 3rd down and I don't see him making the reads that those other 3 do. Notice also how much better Kaep and Wilson are at protecting themselves while still running well down field.

Flacco and Cutler might be good one day if they stop deluding themselves that they are elite and everyone else is the problem.

Good read on Flacco and Cutler. Now that you mention it, I think they are more similar than I'd considered previously. I think I probably agree with your order if we were just talking about right now and discounting the future outlook. However, isn't it curious that you still have Alex ahead of Kaepernick for the "right now" despite our offense seemingly running better with Kaep?