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Could the 49ers convince a team to use the new draft value chart?

  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,871
You can see it linked in the following link. In addition, by this new valuation, the 49ers have the most draft capital in the 2013 draft, higher than teams with much higher picks in the draft.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/74658/about-that-old-nfl-draft-pick-value-chart

This new valuation does not put as much value in the higher picks, and puts more value in the mid and lower picks. The creator was basing it on analysis of historical data and the likelihood of a team drafting a useful player at the pick.

Now from a 49er fan perspective, I like a chart that says 49ers are #1 with draft value versus the old system that said that they were 17th. The challenge is finding a team that has a high pick that would agree to trade based on the new chart. Maybe the Raiders? From what I hear, they don't have that many picks. The following trade would be possible under the new chart:

Raiders Give:
#3 Overall (worth 401.3 points)

49ers Give:
#31 (worth 203)
#93 (101.1)
#157 (60)
#237 (sub-39)

The 49ers would still have a total of 4 picks in the top 3 rounds, so the 49ers can still get more quality players. The Raiders would be able to draft 3 additional players to fill their myriad holes.

One question I have, is if the 49ers could make such a trade, would you do it? Sharif Floyd would be the most likely player to select at #3 overall.
Yes, being able to keep the 34, 61, and 74, I would love to give up those other picks for Floyd. This has been in the back of my mind for a while. This is what tells me the 49ers will NOT trade up if the top teams are still married to the old view. But that would be cool if they could pull this off.
If the Raiders did this, their fans would just give up. You'd literally see a bunch of gross, disgusting refugees running across the bridge to join SF. There is no way any team would do that simply based on past trades, which dictate future trades. The Raiders would use history as leverage to get max positioning.

Just for perspective, ATL went from 27 to 6 by giving up their First, Second, Fourth and the next years First and Fourth.

Your wish is that we trade go from 31 to 3 by giving up our First, Third, Fifth, Seventh... to move even farther than ATL.

No way that new value chart is used. That said, I approve of this trade.
Originally posted by 84SheepDog:
If the Raiders did this, their fans would just give up. You'd literally see a bunch of gross, disgusting refugees running across the bridge to join SF. There is no way any team would do that simply based on past trades, which dictate future trades. The Raiders would use history as leverage to get max positioning.

Just for perspective, ATL went from 27 to 6 by giving up their First, Second, Fourth and the next years First and Fourth.

Your wish is that we trade go from 31 to 3 by giving up our First, Third, Fifth, Seventh... to move even farther than ATL.

No way that new value chart is used. That said, I approve of this trade.

you win at the internet today!
lol, it's true tho!
Yeah, pesky precedent is a hard thing to overcome. That's why until the new chart becomes more accepted, smart teams will want to trade down in the 1st round far more often than they want to trade up. The Cowboys are the most recent to join the party of around a dozen teams who are basically on record trying to trade down. Maybe one of them will bite on value that looks nothing like the "old" way.
  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,871
Originally posted by 84SheepDog:
If the Raiders did this, their fans would just give up. You'd literally see a bunch of gross, disgusting refugees running across the bridge to join SF. There is no way any team would do that simply based on past trades, which dictate future trades. The Raiders would use history as leverage to get max positioning.

Just for perspective, ATL went from 27 to 6 by giving up their First, Second, Fourth and the next years First and Fourth.

Your wish is that we trade go from 31 to 3 by giving up our First, Third, Fifth, Seventh... to move even farther than ATL.

No way that new value chart is used. That said, I approve of this trade.

Yes, I understand what you are saying, but on the other hand if they don't make the trade, they are stuck with just the #3 overall pick. If I were them, I would try something more in the middle, maybe SFs 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th. They get more value than they should, but the trade would still not look that good with the old trade value chart. They are smart for getting more for their pick than it is truly worth.
No, I understand what you're saying. I was thinking about pick-needy teams a couple days ago, too. Teams like SD and CAR that would maybe give in a little because they have so many holes to fill. That one person they draft could be good, but they'd potentially be a Free Agent before the team finally gets a bunch of other people around him. Maybe in desperation?
Interesting, this came up in a tweet from Evan Silver today.

  • nj9er
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,127
You listen to all the draft experts there really is no top ten guys this year. Most of the this years top talent is grades around pick 15 to 45 with little distinguishing the 15 to the 45th player. We need to be trading back and load up for next year and 2015 and take the value where we can get it. We will be lucky to get 3 guys that play more than in 5 games this year. Trade back and stock pile for 2014 draft that has more talent and when we will need to clear cap space we will have quality picks to replace some of our starters.

Find a guy to rotate in on DL, quality depth at TE and in the secondary and then develop some guys on both lines and at WR and were set. The developmental guys could be undrafted to save on picks.
This chart just backs up what I have been saying WHY ON gods green earth would you trade 2-3 top 95 picks for one player when the players talent are FLAT from picks 4-95.. Now if the team has an andrew luck and RG3, no way the new chart. This year, heck yes someone would allow a trade up.
Originally posted by nj9er:
You listen to all the draft experts there really is no top ten guys this year. Most of the this years top talent is grades around pick 15 to 45 with little distinguishing the 15 to the 45th player. We need to be trading back and load up for next year and 2015 and take the value where we can get it. We will be lucky to get 3 guys that play more than in 5 games this year. Trade back and stock pile for 2014 draft that has more talent and when we will need to clear cap space we will have quality picks to replace some of our starters.

Find a guy to rotate in on DL, quality depth at TE and in the secondary and then develop some guys on both lines and at WR and were set. The developmental guys could be undrafted to save on picks.

I understand and agree with most of that. But still, I'm pretty sure there has NEVER been a significant trade-up in the 1st round that conformed to this "new" chart. The "old" chart is much more consistent with precedent, and 84sheepdog had a point above when he suggested that all those teams who are "interested" in trading down may still be very reluctant to be the first team in history to trade down for a haul of picks that makes all the guys on TV say, "Wait, really? That's it??"

So, while I am mostly in the camp of staying put and/or trading down, I will say this: If Baalke loves a guy who we can only get in the top 15, and we're able to it while keeping our other three top-74 picks (possible with the new chart), and we're still able to trade some mid-late picks for 2014 picks, then I wouldn't be upset.
Originally posted by fryet:
You can see it linked in the following link. In addition, by this new valuation, the 49ers have the most draft capital in the 2013 draft, higher than teams with much higher picks in the draft.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/74658/about-that-old-nfl-draft-pick-value-chart

This new valuation does not put as much value in the higher picks, and puts more value in the mid and lower picks. The creator was basing it on analysis of historical data and the likelihood of a team drafting a useful player at the pick.

Now from a 49er fan perspective, I like a chart that says 49ers are #1 with draft value versus the old system that said that they were 17th. The challenge is finding a team that has a high pick that would agree to trade based on the new chart. Maybe the Raiders? From what I hear, they don't have that many picks. The following trade would be possible under the new chart:

Raiders Give:
#3 Overall (worth 401.3 points)

49ers Give:
#31 (worth 203)
#93 (101.1)
#157 (60)
#237 (sub-39)

The 49ers would still have a total of 4 picks in the top 3 rounds, so the 49ers can still get more quality players. The Raiders would be able to draft 3 additional players to fill their myriad holes.

One question I have, is if the 49ers could make such a trade, would you do it? Sharif Floyd would be the most likely player to select at #3 overall.

or maybe Dion Jordan? We'll need someone to replace Justin Smith. I'd be happy with Sharif though
I think the revised chart is good, except that I think it undervalues the top picks. However, the value of those top picks is highly variable based on the draft class. If you get an Andrew Luck/RG3, then those top couple picks are worth waaaay more.
Can I ask a serious question... aside from a guy like Suh, when he was a prospect, is there anyone in recent memory that would justify this kind of trade as a DL?

Suh was a freak at his position, much like CJ/JJ at WR, or Eric Berry/Earl Thomas (low 4.4 safeties with instincts are rare). There is no one in this class that just screams physical freak WITH instincts aside from Austin (That change of direction is redunk) who we wont draft.