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*I've built an excel-based Draft Value Chart Calculator (please pin)

The one I linked to like 4 years ago didn't rely on accurate data.

Anyhow, feel free to download it - the first tab is where you enter pick numbers to evaluate trades - tab 8 lists the picks by team (excl. compensatory picks that can't be traded).

I also have calculators for the Schuckers Model, which bases draft value on actual player performance -- 1991-2001 drafts vs. player performance through 2010 (data from pro-football focus). I also built a 'mixed model' that averages the Schuckers model with the traditional model.

Enjoy.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2Eu1DDN514kSW0xa3RjeHJpakE/edit?usp=sharing

Also, if you want to nerd-out on this, below is the link to Schuckers' journal paper on the subject.

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_JQAS_NFL_Draft.pdf
As an example, if we wanted to trade up to #14 and snag "Big Hank", NT Johnathan Hankins, a perfectly-even trade between us and the panthers is our 2nd, both 3rd, and our 6th rounder -- that's almost perfectly-even on the OLD chart.

If you wanted to use Schuckers' new chart, is just a 5th rounder. Keep in mind that Schuckers' model is based on ACTUAL player performance based on draft position, not what teams actually value.

So if you want to split the difference, an even trade would be to give Carolina their third-rounder back.
Wow. Pretty quiet here nickbradley! I personally found your alternate intriguing. Surely, with just even compensatory picks, change has occurred in drafting values.

The old one was outdated, even before the last NFLPA contract, since no one wanted to pay the exorbitant costs of the first pick of the draft, its value was silly.

And who can argue with a statistician who can prove to you why his system is so good.

Good stuff nickbradley. Sorry everyone is so focused on our last SB drive here. They can't get over it.
Originally posted by OldJoe:
Wow. Pretty quiet here nickbradley! I personally found your alternate intriguing. Surely, with just even compensatory picks, change has occurred in drafting values.

The old one was outdated, even before the last NFLPA contract, since no one wanted to pay the exorbitant costs of the first pick of the draft, its value was silly.

And who can argue with a statistician who can prove to you why his system is so good.

Good stuff nickbradley. Sorry everyone is so focused on our last SB drive here. They can't get over it.

What's interesting is that almost all trades correspond to the old draft value chart, even though it doesn't correspond to actual value!
I believe the problem with the paper is that the critieria Shuckers uses, such as games played, games started, and even pro bowl selections, undervalues the effect of getting a true impact player. That is, some guy who makes a Pro Bowl team is given the same weight as a league MVP.

Here is a list of quarterbacks that had the highest QBRs in 2012, by round drafted.

1st round: Rodgers, P.Manning, RG III, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Flacco, E.Manning, Newton, Palmer
2nd Round: Brees (1st pick in round 2), Kaepernick
3rd Round: Wilson, Shaub
6th or Lower: Brady, Romo

We have 13 in the 1st or early 2nd round, 2 in the 3rd, and 2 in the later rounds, 1 of whom, Romo, is dubious how great of a player they truly are. But we can say that the ratio of 7 good 1st round QBs to 1 good late round QBs is reasonable.

Real world considerations:
it is impossible to trade a 1st round pick for 7 7th round picks, since no team ever stockpiles enough tradeable late round picks to make such a trade.

It may take years to find a needed player in the later rounds

It is harder to find gems when a large number of players are being simultaneously assessed, there just aren't enough snaps to go around.

The trouble with trading back is that you are much more likely to find a gem in the 1st round than in the 7th round, and it takes much longer to uncover that gem in the later rounds. If your team needs a player to fill a position NOW, you are much more likely to find them in the early rounds, and that is why early picks have more value than suggested by Shuckers study.