Originally posted by MadDog49er:
That is my point, regardless if the number was 50 or 40 or 30 or 20 or even 10 percent. Looney is a prospect that very few 49ers fans knew anything about, but some will run to management's decision to draft him as genius, simply because he was drafted by our team. I sincerely doubt they would have the same sentiment if was drafted by the Rams or Bucs. Damn, we could have had Joe Looney!!!
Everyone understands how fans tend to give their team the benefit of the doubt in the draft? It is no different with Niners fans. My criticism is with a couple of board members who do not know very much about the draft, but stand in defense of the Baalke, and are offended by my analysis because it is not full of glowing praise with each and every pick. If they knew what they were talking about, and evaluated based on predraft instead of post draft grading of a player, then their analysis would carry weight. OTC and I don't always agree on players, but he doesn't grade them post draft, so they get superhuman powers for putting on the Niners jersey, while the other guys we didnt select become scrubs. That is the perspective of those who are most strident in their criticism of my analysis. They would be arguing the genius of the first two picks if the players were named Brian Quick and Chris Polk, or Mohamed Sanu and Lamar Miller instead of Jenkins and James.
Today, you state, "That is my point, regardless if the number was 50 or 40 or 30 or 20 or even 10 percent."
You issued a challenge that gave specific percentages: 60% to 40%.
I took your challenge at face value, and felt that actual numbers would not jibe with your prediction.
Apparently, my skepticism was warranted.
Now, you argue that the numbers are not important. When exactly did the specific percentages lose their value?
In post # 15 of this thread, the numbers had importance, or so it seemed.
You contended, "So far, I am pretty much dead on in my prediction that DeCastro would win this thread in a 60-40 ratio. At 66-34, right in the park."
In the thread on your draft analysis, you argued thus:
"As stated in this thread, I believe, I challenged one poster who did not believe in this bias to post a DeCastro or Looney thread. I said the results wold come out about 60-40 for DeCastro, even though if DeCastro was the Niners selection, the number would be 99-1 percent. I was not far off. Right now the number is 66-34 percent for DeCastro."
First, in this post the numbers again seemed to be important to you.
Second, I was the poster who you challenged. You described me as one poster who did not believe in this bias
. At no point did I ever claim that this bias did not exist. In fact, I understood that such a bias exists; I contended that you overstated the depth of that bias—that you painted with too broad a brush.
I do have one question. Do you consider me to be one of the "a couple of board members who do not know very much about the draft, but stand in defense of the Baalke, and are offended by my analysis because it is not full of glowing praise with each and every pick ?"
I am just wondering about how that statement fits into this thread.
I would like to think that I am not, but who knows.
[ Edited by buck on May 12, 2012 at 11:18 PM ]