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Who will be a better NFL guard: DeCastro or Looney"?

Who will be a better NFL guard: DeCastro or Looney"?

A right guard isn't traditionally worth a 1st round pick anyways. Decastro might be better but I could care less. If Looney ends up being a quality starting guard that's all that matters. You don't need a perennial Pro Bowler at right guard. Iupati is hopefully the star interior lineman. Nothing wrong with some role players.

I respect the work Maddog does for the site and he does a really good job evaluating talent but he's always too in love with his philosophy on how to build a team and when we go a different direction he gets upset and gives us bad grades even though he often is okay with the pick.

He grades the Jennings pick as a C+ but gives us an F because we could have traded up for a guard. This is going to be another one of Maddog's great failures. You either like the pick and our draft or you don't. Take your personal feelings on what's the best way to build a team and put them aside.
[ Edited by tjd808185 on May 5, 2012 at 6:04 PM ]
Being a Niner obviously makes you a better player. Looney.
The primary purpose of the poll, is to show the extent of "homerism" on the Zone.
Currently, the direction favors MadDog's prediction, but the magnitude estimate is off by -20%, 40% vs 28%. Not bad, MD, Not bad.

So lets freely admit that we have a "homer" bias, thought not quite as blind as MD predicted.

Think of the pole as MD's and Buck's mirror to show us our bias. MD is urging us to keep looking for "truth", by seeing past our bias.

MD, thanks for the reminder. The pursuit of clarity is a virtue. The kids in your classroom are lucky to have you.

As to the topic of the poll, who is the better guard, I'm not really interested in this issue, cause odds are, DeCastro will be the better guard. Even with the counter examples. (Missing on Carl Nicks in the 5th still hurts!)

But the question for me is: Can whoever wins the competition, Looney, Kilgore, Boone, or Slooey be a "good enough guard"? Here's why:

If we get serviceable RG play this year, (without using our first pick on a RG), and Jenkins gets 600 yds as a rookie, averaging a mere 37 yds/game, the systemic impact may be surprising:
• Crab's increases his production by 33%,
• Davis increasing his production by 33%,
• reduces the number of downs that D's can put an extra man in the box, resulting in a substantial increase in yards on the ground and 3rd down conversions.

Thanks to Jenkins separation, speed and hands, he can have modest success as a rookie, and still reduce FS's shading to Crabs side, clear seam + crossing patterns for Davis, which will also achieve one less defender in the box. Add Manningham, and now the question becomes can Jenkins separate against the #3 CB, and will that leave a LB on Davis? In contrast, DeCastro will be up against the best DT. In theory, the net would be our O becomes harder to key against, with a viable passing attack, creating open spaces for Hunter and James to break-off some long ones.

Than the question becomes could DeCastro and whomever was the best 4th round value WR on MD's board have a similar impact? The comparison becomes [Looney + Jenkins vs DeCastro + WR?]

I'll leave it to someone else to work out how to measure DeCastro's team impact. He will surely make Davis better at RT. But I recently saw on another thread, that we had the worst number of sacks in the league, 3.37% of plays where Alex still has the ball in his hand up to 2.5 secs, (with release in 3 secs being the target.) If we run 60 passing plays on offense that would be 2 sacks/game for the entire line. If we estimate "QB hurries" as 3x more frequent than sacks, there would be 2+6 = 8 plays from scrimmage that would be adversely affected. If DeCastro is 1/3 better than Looney at pass protection, than the 49ers, with Looney, will have roughly 3 more plays/game with a suboptimum outcome, assuming all the sacks and hurries occur through RG.

In contrast, if Jenkins is in for 20 plays, and we get the 1/3 increase in total offense, due to his presence including his modest production of 37 yds/game, we would increase our passing yds/game from 183 to 244 or 61 yds/game . That would move us from 29th to 13th in passing yds/game based on 2011 numbers. And it would help our run game as well.

What I'm concluding is that in our pass-first NFL, the WR position potentially has a bigger impact on total offensive production than the RG position. This is a different basis for evaluating our draft selections than the original question of the poll, "Who is most likely better, the best guard in the draft vs the 13th best guard in the draft." I think Baalkebaugh is thinking like this too, but its just a guess.

Of course, if Jenkins can't learn how to beat press coverage from a third or 4th CB, than we clearly should have taken DeCastro.
  • mike
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I think this thread would be more interesting if the options were Kilgore with a year under his belt, vs Decastro. Looney is clearly for development and competition but Kilgore's got the best shot at starting.

The problem here is hype, do you hype a prospect based largely on what the media is saying about a player(decastro) or do you hype your own prospects based mostly on the excitement that comes from focusing on them postdraft and seeing cool highlights and such? The fact is most of us have not seen game film so the idea that you can analyze without that film is laughable and imo what makes MD and other webzone analysts a joke.
  • buck
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Originally posted by mebemused:
The primary purpose of the poll, is to show the extent of "homerism" on the Zone.
Currently, the direction favors MadDog's prediction, but the magnitude estimate is off by -20%, 40% vs 28%. Not bad, MD, Not bad.

So lets freely admit that we have a "homer" bias, thought not quite as blind as MD predicted

Actually at this point, MD is only off by 12%, not 20%.

The numbers remain at 72% to 28%.

In my discussion with MD, I objected to his contentions that fans were biased and because of that bias not honest in our evaluation of players.

I understand that this poll is not scientific, and therefore not conclusive.

But, poll does indicate that magnitude of "homerism" on the board does not justify MD's classification of fans as biased or not honest.

Again, in my estimation, the brush with which MD paints is just too broad.

The level of civility in this forum seems to be relatively low.

If MD were more judicious in his argumentation, I feel that the discussions on this board would be more civil.

The converse is also true. If the opponents of MD were more judicious in their argumentation, I feel that the discussions on this board would be more civil.

We should all attempt to recognize our own biases and concentrate on dealing with them.
If we do that we should be able to avoid making overarching criticisms of other board members.
[ Edited by buck on May 6, 2012 at 3:37 PM ]
Of course we're going to be homers. This isn't even a legit question.

Still, Baalke seemed to really love the Looney pick and is buying what Newberry is saying about him. If he is the real deal, then we could potentially be getting a high round talent for peanuts. That's the kind of moves that keep GMs employed. If he's wrong, he's wrong. We can't keep spending 1st round picks on Olineman though. Moss is a stop gap. Crab is a possession guy and Mario is complimentary WR. We really needed to add some young talent (and speed) to the position.
Lol, take the homer glasses off

Decastro
  • mike
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Originally posted by strickac:
Of course we're going to be homers. This isn't even a legit question.

Still, Baalke seemed to really love the Looney pick and is buying what Newberry is saying about him. If he is the real deal, then we could potentially be getting a high round talent for peanuts. That's the kind of moves that keep GMs employed. If he's wrong, he's wrong. We can't keep spending 1st round picks on Olineman though. Moss is a stop gap. Crab is a possession guy and Mario is complimentary WR. We really needed to add some young talent (and speed) to the position.
^This. You just don't see any of the teams with awesome o-lines/passing games being that way because they drafted 5 first rounders into their line. Having that many 1st round guys in your line suggests that we suck at scouting for these positions and/or we suck at developing those mid round guys into starting talent and beyond.

Unless you give guys like kilgore and looney chances we will never know if we were already set at that position as well, think about how bowman would have never emerged if we kept TKO. You have to give these guys chances and take risks.
Originally posted by buck:
Actually at this point, MD is only off by 12%, not 20%.

The numbers remain at 72% to 28%.

Buck, I'm calculating a percentage, using the two percentages 40% vs 28%. (28/40 =.7). So 28 is 70% of 40, where 40 would be 100% of MD's prediction that people would rate Looney better. While both are true, 12%, (40-28 = 12) is the absolute difference between 40 and 28. Expressed as a percent, 70% is better because it assumes that MD would be 100% correct if 40% vote for Looney. Right now, MD's prediction of webzone homerism is 30% too strong.

Thanks for running the poll and helping me catch my math error.
Originally posted by ninerlifer:
Really?

Dumbest poll I have ever seen. You are asking between the best OG in the draft compared to a mid rounder?

Personally I hope this works out to where Looney is a perenial pro bowler,
Likewise.
  • buck
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Originally posted by mebemused:
Originally posted by buck:
Actually at this point, MD is only off by 12%, not 20%.

The numbers remain at 72% to 28%.

Buck, I'm calculating a percentage, using the two percentages 40% vs 28%. (28/40 =.7). So 28 is 70% of 40, where 40 would be 100% of MD's prediction that people would rate Looney better. While both are true, 12%, (40-28 = 12) is the absolute difference between 40 and 28. Expressed as a percent, 70% is better because it assumes that MD would be 100% correct if 40% vote for Looney. Right now, MD's prediction of webzone homerism is 30% too strong.

Thanks for running the poll and helping me catch my math error.

Thanks. I did think about that type of comparison, but alas I did not have a clue about how to do the calculation.
[ Edited by buck on May 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM ]
  • buck
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Originally posted by RishikeshA:
Originally posted by ninerlifer:
Really?

Dumbest poll I have ever seen. You are asking between the best OG in the draft compared to a mid rounder?

Personally I hope this works out to where Looney is a perenial pro bowler,
Likewise.

On its face value, the poll is clearly one of the dumbest. By extension,the poll makes me seem pretty dumb.
2008 NFL Draft:

1st Guard drafted: Pick 39, Chilo Rachal (2nd round)

Best Guard drafted: Pick 164, Carl Nicks (5th round)
Originally posted by KowboyKiller:
2008 NFL Draft:

1st Guard drafted: Pick 39, Chilo Rachal (2nd round)

Best Guard drafted: Pick 164, Carl Nicks (5th round)
i think there is a huge difference

rachal was considered raw and needed a lot of work

decastro is not only considered pro ready but said to be the best guard prospect of all time
Originally posted by tjd808185:
A right guard isn't traditionally worth a 1st round pick anyways. Decastro might be better but I could care less. If Looney ends up being a quality starting guard that's all that matters. You don't need a perennial Pro Bowler at right guard. Iupati is hopefully the star interior lineman. Nothing wrong with some role players.

I respect the work Maddog does for the site and he does a really good job evaluating talent but he's always too in love with his philosophy on how to build a team and when we go a different direction he gets upset and gives us bad grades even though he often is okay with the pick.

He grades the Jennings pick as a C+ but gives us an F because we could have traded up for a guard. This is going to be another one of Maddog's great failures. You either like the pick and our draft or you don't. Take your personal feelings on what's the best way to build a team and put them aside.

You couldn't care less, if you COULD then that means you do care............ Sorry i hate that s**t it eats away at me lol