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MadDog's Niners Draft Grade and Analysis

I'm going to shy away from the presumption you made that Gore still needs those 20 carries per game. Throughout last year I thought Gore was much more effective in smaller doses. I'm thinking around 15 carries for 70 yards from Gore, 8-10 carries for 50 yards from Hunter, and something like 5 rush and 3-5 catches from James.

There's some hypothetical averages for you. Obviously it won't be that consistent. I think mixing them up will give you the higher YPA totals.
I love your analysis and think it is very accurate. Any 49ers fans that don't agree. Are just grabbing for optimism. Our 1st round pick set the tempo for the worse draft I've seen out of the 49ers, since the Jim drunkenmiller draft.
Originally posted by 49ersHeroine:
I love your analysis and think it is very accurate. Any 49ers fans that don't agree. Are just grabbing for optimism. Our 1st round pick set the tempo for the worse draft I've seen out of the 49ers, since the Jim drunkenmiller draft.

Nice debut.
kaep will run the pistol when niners want to close out blow out games
Originally posted by Joecool:
Totally agree which was why we also drafted Kaep last year. Anyways, I don't even know what to make of this draft except for getting the best talent available and stocking up on next years picks.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
MadDog, if you had DeCastro ranked in the top 10, then you would have to give an F grade to the first round selection of every team between Buffalo and Pittsburgh for "passing on a sure-fire all-pro guard."

Not necessarily. When need and talent come together, then you see the maximum value of a pick . The Niners greatest area of need, and mosts unsettled position going into 2012 is RG, and they had a surefire Day One starter and potential ProBowler drop down to them. Some teams, like the Eagles, don't have a need at guard, but DT. So their selection of another top 10 talent makes it a reasonable selection.

Not every team inside the top 10 picks selected a top 10 player on my board. Miami selected Tannehill, which drives down a top talent beyond the top 10 picks.

It is true that I dinged a number of teams in their draft grade for bypassing DeCastro. Many teams were so fixated on plucking defensive help that we saw him drop. He would have been a much wiser selection for a team like Cleveland, which reached to pluck Weeden at 22. The same goes for KC.
Originally posted by DertyDonahue:
things got nasty in here! appreciate the post MD - of course I don't agree with it all.

For some people, any time you do not fall in line with Niners management, you become an enemy to the team. I get it. No biggie.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Apr 30, 2012 at 1:36 AM ]
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
MadDog, if you had DeCastro ranked in the top 10, then you would have to give an F grade to the first round selection of every team between Buffalo and Pittsburgh for "passing on a sure-fire all-pro guard."

Not necessarily. When need and talent come together, then you see the maximum value of a pick . The Niners greatest area of need, and mosts unsettled position going into 2012 is RG, and they had a surefire Day One starter and potential ProBowler drop down to them. Some teams, like the Eagles, don't have a need at guard, but DT. So their selection of another top 10 talent makes it a reasonable selection.

Not every team inside the top 10 picks selected a top 10 player on my board. Miami selected Tannehill, which drives down a top talent beyond the top 10 picks.

It is true that I dinged a number of teams in their draft grade for bypassing DeCastro. Many teams were so fixated on plucking defensive help that we saw him drop. He would have been a much wiser selection for a team like Cleveland, which reached to pluck Weeden at 22. The same goes for KC.

I'm going to quibble with you about the 49ers's "biggest need." If you just look at the depth chart, position by position, okay perhaps RG was the most glaring need. But if you think of it in terms of football needs, I don't think run blocking or pass protection was #1 on the list. Our biggest need was solving our offensive ineptitude on third downs and in the red zone.

Improving offensive line play was certainly also a need, but I think it took a backseat. Also, just how big a need RG was depends on your evaluation of our current OL stable as well as the additions later in the draft. Why do you say the Eagles had no need at guard? Are both of their guards All Pros? The 49ers have an All Pro at LG and they have what figures to be an average starter at RG, whether it's Kilgore or Looney. So is RG really a glaring need simply because there's not a sure-fire All Pro plugged into that spot?
Originally posted by Blitz:
Seems like a lot of drawing conclusion from out of nowhere Maddog:


1) The FO considered OLine our neediest position? Prior, during, or after the draft....I am not aware of any statements by our FO suggesting that Oline is our neediest position. There is simply nothing from our FO supporting your opinion on this, that I am aware of anyways.

2) The FO graded Decastro superior to Jenkins? The same as above^^^^^^^^^...there is simply nothing from our FO to support your opinion on this.

3) Could have done it a reasonable price? Again, nothing from the FO seems to support your opinion on this either. Hell, for all we know....the FO may have attempted to orchestrate a trade at a reasonable price. In fact, the possibility exists that may have indeed tried to orchestrate a trade, and the price demanded by the trade partner was deemed unreasonable, or they simply deemed the price unreasonable because of how moving up would effect their draft plan, or overall strategic long term planning. The statements put out by our FO to the effect of deciding to "stay pat" does not exclude the possibility that they may have indeed tried to move up and the price was higher than what they deemed reasonable. These guys don't think in terms of one draft alone, they think in terms of several, along with FA. Note: It's entirely possible one of the goals of this draft was to accumulate extra picks this year, for next year. Hence, from that....it's entirely possible the FO could consider not coming away with extra pics this year, for next year, an unreasonable price to pay.

I get what you are saying Maddog, and it's looking to me that it is pretty much subjective reasoning behind it, with little or none factual evidence from our FO to support the conclusion you are drawing about moving up for better for reasonable etc.

Therefore, I do not accept your F grade.

I am not grading the pick on what the FO thinks, but what is reality. Our starting RG is gone, his backup is gone, and there is a gaping hole and a starting guard by committee approach. You won't see that anywhere else on the field.

I never stated that the FO graded Jenkins over DeCastro
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Lol, I just dug up MD's grades from last year. That thread turned UGLY about halfway through the season when Aldon Smith, Chris Culliver, and Bruce Miller had already panned out. Yikes.

My final draft grade last year was a C, I believe, which pretty much matched my grade for Smith. It is all about getting max value for a pick. The ugliness of the thread were the personal attacks. People get angry when anyone critiques management and take it personally.

As for the Culliver pick, I wasn't harsh at all on the pick. In fact, most people were furious at first and I tried to calm their fesrs
Originally posted by jreff22:
Man oh man MD....I hope you drink when you go through these pages.

Few comments.....

Jenkins surprised the hell out of me, I figured it would be OG or WR, but Jenkins...right out of left field. The kid has talent which I think we all can agree on but how high he will go is yet to be seen. If he becomes a more productive WR compared to Crabs then its a win in my book. I still think we need more talent at the position but you have to start somewhere.

James baffled the hell out of me, didn't think we would go RB but if we did thought it would be a bigger back. Although I cant argue with the ability of making guys miss coupled with raw speed, small backs do worry me. I haven't watched a lot of footage of the kid and will bypass the "highlights" that show 0 flaws on youtube...Chilo I'm sure had a highlight reel. I'm very indifferent about this pick but will hold of judgement until I see him play.

We have created a bit of a log jam at WR, RB, and OL. I would love to know who gets cut and who sees the field more then 10 snaps a game. Hopefully Jenkins makes it at slot and gets heavy rotation by week 3-5. James will need to make both Jacobs and Cartwright expendable in camp. We have a good chance Gore is out at some point with a nagging injury. If he is up to speed, can pass block, and doesn't look lost I think he will add a different dimension then Hunter right now.

Although I wasn't happy that we didn't move for DeCastro, I was surprised we didn't move for Glenn. Time will tell but I do give this draft a C+ on players and a B- with the additional picks.

I do have to say looking at what we have I think we go back to WR next year and go big at DE and NT.

No biggie on the anger by some. I learned long ago that disagreeing with Niners management provokes wrath by some. But, I can't just agree with the company line simply because I like the tesm
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Lol, I just dug up MD's grades from last year. That thread turned UGLY about halfway through the season when Aldon Smith, Chris Culliver, and Bruce Miller had already panned out. Yikes.

My final draft grade last year was a C, I believe, which pretty much matched my grade for Smith. It is all about getting max value for a pick. The ugliness of the thread were the personal attacks. People get angry when anyone critiques management and take it personally.

As for the Culliver pick, I wasn't harsh at all on the pick. In fact, most people were furious at first and I tried to calm their fesrs

I agree with you completely that the ugliness was due to unwarranted personal attacks. I was not trying to pile on; sorry if you took it that way. I don't fancy myself among the "pro-MD" or "anti-MD" crowd (and why some people on this board seem to is beyond me), so I just got a chuckle out of seeing how fast this place devolves sometimes.
Also, MD, I find it a little puzzling how unwilling you are to "back off" from some of your 2011 grades. Any draft prognosticator will tell you (and you do, in your grades posts) that post-draft grades are simply a snap judgment and a draft can't truly be graded until a couple years down the line. So it stands to reason that your grade will be different after a full season is in the books.

You don't have to get defensive about why you graded 2011 the way you did at the time. I understand your doubts about Aldon and CK and Bruce Miller. But surely a starting FB in the 7th round now merits more than an F. Surely a CB of Culliver's promise in the 3rd round merits more than a C+. Surely 14 sacks from a "raw" 22 year old rookie merits more than a C. So I'd be curious to know your current grade of the 2011 draft class. Remember, you get the benefit of hindsight this time around.
Nice right up Maddog, even though I didn't agree with your assessment of the first 2 picks.

I don't see how picking Jenkins warrants an F. He has the talent, and the need for a WR was there. I understand that DeCastro was within trading distance, but how do we know any of the teams from, say, #20-23 were willing to move back to #30? It takes two to tango. More on the RG situation later.

James was a good pick. Gore is wearing down, and Jacobs is on a 1-year deal. Hunter has similar dimensions, but is a different player. Not redundant IMO. We ranked 26th in total offense. We need guys who can rack up yards in bunches, and the first 2 picks reflect that.

I am not grading the pick on what the FO thinks, but what is reality.

The above quote makes little sense. What the FO thinks IS reality. The reality is, they like their RG situation. They are high on Kilgore and Person, as well as Looney. The RG position, despite what the media and fans say, was not a big need to the 49ers. They accomplished exactly what they set out to do in this draft: add speed on offense, address depth at other positions.
[ Edited by SofaKing on Apr 30, 2012 at 2:35 AM ]
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by 49ersHeroine:
I love your analysis and think it is very accurate. Any 49ers fans that don't agree. Are just grabbing for optimism. Our 1st round pick set the tempo for the worse draft I've seen out of the 49ers, since the Jim drunkenmiller draft.

Nice debut.

Originally posted by joey82:
If you are going to give a guy s**t when he gets it wrong you can at least give him props when he gets it right. He was right on N. Davis, Rachal and Mays just for example.

I appreciate the time you put into this draft to share your thoughts and I realize that your opinions are just that opinions.

He wasn't really wrong on Watt (except MAYBE (large maybe) that he is a more worthwhile pick than Aldon) either. That guy looks like Justin Smith part deux.

He was wrong on Aldon. He's admitted as much, who cares? No one bats .1000

I think he's wrong on our first two picks this year as well (well, I wanted James in the 3rd or 4th, not 2nd, but that's ok as I think he's going to add a nice dynamic threat to the offense and Gore is near done AND his receiving skills appeared to have flown out the window completely), but only time will tell.
[ Edited by Evilgenius on Apr 30, 2012 at 2:51 AM ]
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