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MadDog's Niners Draft Grade and Analysis

jreff do yourself a favor and watch that highlight video on you tube, well most players videos are 5-7 min with repeated plays. James goes on and on and on, it's really exciting actually.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Lol, I just dug up MD's grades from last year. That thread turned UGLY about halfway through the season when Aldon Smith, Chris Culliver, and Bruce Miller had already panned out. Yikes.

Same gonna happen this year; we will be merciless on the ragging...........Yer grade F------------>
Originally posted by D-Money:
jreff do yourself a favor and watch that highlight video on you tube, well most players videos are 5-7 min with repeated plays. James goes on and on and on, it's really exciting actually.

It doesn't show flaws and I want to know how the kid is every play, not just his good ones. Every prospect has a reel that shows how great he is....we know that not every kid is great and the majority will fail.

I did read he has fumble issues, major flag IMO. Nobody has been able to say otherwise so I guess its true......
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Why does everyone always point to Carl Nicks when arguing the dangers of spending too many first rounders on offensive linemen?

Also, has MD responded in this thread yet?

Why does a man climb a mountain? Because it is there....


OK...with all due respect...I guess I will have to spell it out for you...

Look, it is true that Nicks was not a first rounder but the point is....he became a Pro Bowl OG which still translates into a boatload of Benjamins... Get the picture?

In today's NFL, there is a salary cap.

If the Niners had drafted DeCastro and he did turn into a Pro Bowl OG, that would mean the Niners have got to pay 3 Pro Bowl OLmen (Staley, Iupati, and then DeCastro)... Gets a little expensive, no? Yes. That means that to sign all 3 AND get under the cap, the Niners have to sacrifice money elsewhere.....let's see.....perhaps their top 5 defense?.....which if corners are cut, isn't top 5 anymore. Catching my drift?

At times, two and two do actually make four...
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by D-Money:
jreff do yourself a favor and watch that highlight video on you tube, well most players videos are 5-7 min with repeated plays. James goes on and on and on, it's really exciting actually.

It doesn't show flaws and I want to know how the kid is every play, not just his good ones. Every prospect has a reel that shows how great he is....we know that not every kid is great and the majority will fail.

I did read he has fumble issues, major flag IMO. Nobody has been able to say otherwise so I guess its true......

We drafted him to make plays, and he's made a s**t ton of plays. And his "flaws" didn't keep him from being one of the best players in the nation for three years.
Dude watch the video, and tell me if the good doesn't out weight the bad. Im telling you the kid is legit, he had two scary injuries this past year, hyperextending elbows while falling unnaturally, and he has fumbled a bit-but he also carries the ball a lot.And I don't like the fact he didnt have good games against LSU (2011) or Auburn (2010). Those are some negatives for you. But this kid was the number one back, with a great back behind him. The thing I like about him is he's just starting out on punt returns and he is good-great, only room to grow. Some things that I actually went backed and watched in the "highlight video" after Harbaugh talked about his toughness and goal line ability. I found LMJ finishes his runs, he's only 5-8 yet he's dropping shoulders and running over guys. I think the fly sweep inside the five is coming with him from Oregon to S.F. as Stanford(Harbaugh) and other Pac-12 teams couldn't stop him.
JReff go watch a whole game of his on ESPNU then hate, until then you have to do some more homework, LMJ is a beast and fast fast fast fast.
Originally posted by nw9erfan:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Why does everyone always point to Carl Nicks when arguing the dangers of spending too many first rounders on offensive linemen?

Also, has MD responded in this thread yet?

Why does a man climb a mountain? Because it is there....


OK...with all due respect...I guess I will have to spell it out for you...

Look, it is true that Nicks was not a first rounder but the point is....he became a Pro Bowl OG which still translates into a boatload of Benjamins... Get the picture?

In today's NFL, there is a salary cap.

If the Niners had drafted DeCastro and he did turn into a Pro Bowl OG, that would mean the Niners have got to pay 3 Pro Bowl OLmen (Staley, Iupati, and then DeCastro)... Gets a little expensive, no? Yes. That means that to sign all 3 AND get under the cap, the Niners have to sacrifice money elsewhere.....let's see.....perhaps their top 5 defense?.....which if corners are cut, isn't top 5 anymore. Catching my drift?

At times, two and two do actually make four...

Yeah but I'm kind of with MD on this one. Just because we drafted a OG in the 4th doesn't mean that we don't want him to become a Pro Bowler in an ideal world. You hope that all the players you draft become big money players some day. Worry about paying them when the time comes and you actually have to decide which positions to invest the most $$ in.

So, we used our first pick on a WR instead of an OG. If Jenkins and Crabtree both become paid like #1s some day, we may have to part ways with one of them. Star WRs make a hell of a lot more than star OGs. So actually, if I had to pick the position on the team to put the most All Pros, I'd probably go with offensive line since 5 star OL are cheaper than 5 star skill players.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by D-Money:
jreff do yourself a favor and watch that highlight video on you tube, well most players videos are 5-7 min with repeated plays. James goes on and on and on, it's really exciting actually.

It doesn't show flaws and I want to know how the kid is every play, not just his good ones. Every prospect has a reel that shows how great he is....we know that not every kid is great and the majority will fail.

I did read he has fumble issues, major flag IMO. Nobody has been able to say otherwise so I guess its true......

We drafted him to make plays, and he's made a s**t ton of plays. And his "flaws" didn't keep him from being one of the best players in the nation for three years.

Same can be said for lots of players, Crabtree was one of the most heralded guys coming out of college. I'm not saying he's bad and he wont contribute, I hope he does great and lets us release Dixon and maybe Jacobs. I was just surprised by the pick and the round it happened. Hunter is dangerous in space and has shown to be a good upcoming player. I just don't know how we get enough touches to all these guys? I'm assuming Harbs puts in more pro set plays so we can line up any combo of Gore-Hunter-James-Miller and not show our cards.
Originally posted by jreff22:
Same can be said for lots of players, Crabtree was one of the most heralded guys coming out of college. I'm not saying he's bad and he wont contribute, I hope he does great and lets us release Dixon and maybe Jacobs. I was just surprised by the pick and the round it happened. Hunter is dangerous in space and has shown to be a good upcoming player. I just don't know how we get enough touches to all these guys? I'm assuming Harbs puts in more pro set plays so we can line up any combo of Gore-Hunter-James-Miller and not show our cards.

I know I'm overusing this comparison throughout the threads, but look at the Saints. 6th in the league last year with 132.9 yard per game on the ground. And that doesn't even account for the RBs in the passing game.

Jacobs will be an afterthought and get a couple carries per game on 3rd and inches, if that. Gore-Hunter-James will be our stable of RBs. The Saints were also #4 in the league in yards per attempt, while we were 19th at 4.1 yards .
Who dat. f**k dat
Originally posted by strickac:
On Jenkins: he might not become a #1 WR, but I'm comfortable that he'll big a very productive player for us. He runs good routes, has speed to beat safeties, and has solid hands, which is nice to finally have. He gets good separation on crossing routes, which should get him on the field earlier, maybe even in the slot. Most importantly though, he's not diva and he's a hard worker. I think he'll fit in perfectly in the offense. Like Harbaugh said, what can't he do well?

Most people thought very highly of Josh Morgan and Jenkins is a far superior prospect. I think he'll be a huge upgrade as our #2, especially over Ginn. Moss is on a trial basis. If he pans out, that just a bonus. Manningham and now Jenkins vastly strengthened our receiving corps. We're adding a fast guy with reliable hands, who knows how to separate. I like his upside.

As for your grades, I don't follow your logic. We missed on DeCastro, but so what? We missed on Luck also. You had Jenkins as an early 2nd rounder and we drafted him at the end of the 1st. That seems to line up to me. We got a solid football player, with no character issues, at a position of need.
That's a nice pick IMO.



IMO too... The qualities that stick out the most to me is his ability to separate, his hands, and his speed. To me, those are the qualities that a # 1 receiver has...

Crabtree has good hands but isn't considered a # 1 because he isn't that fast and can't get consistent separation.
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this thread is a reach
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Yeah but I'm kind of with MD on this one. Just because we drafted a OG in the 4th doesn't mean that we don't want him to become a Pro Bowler in an ideal world. You hope that all the players you draft become big money players some day. Worry about paying them when the time comes and you actually have to decide which positions to invest the most $$ in.

So, we used our first pick on a WR instead of an OG. If Jenkins and Crabtree both become paid like #1s some day, we may have to part ways with one of them. Star WRs make a hell of a lot more than star OGs. So actually, if I had to pick the position on the team to put the most All Pros, I'd probably go with offensive line since 5 star OL are cheaper than 5 star skill players.

Perhaps.....but star WRs and skill players win you some Super Bowls.....just sayin'. You need look no further than the 5 SB trophies the Niners have. Guys named Montana, Rice, Craig, and Taylor....

The skill players are the guys that win those playoff games... Just look at the Giants last year....guy named Manningham.....his key catches help beat the Niners in the NFC Championship game and the Pats in the SB...

More to the point, it is the opinion of you, MD, and quite a few other Zoners that the Niners biggest weakness before the draft was at RG. That certainly may have been a weakness but the Niners' FO felt differently. They clearly felt that the team's biggest weakness was its lack of playmakers....so they went out and got two of them. Kind of hard to argue with that point, yes?
[ Edited by nw9erfan on Apr 30, 2012 at 12:38 AM ]
Originally posted by nw9erfan:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Yeah but I'm kind of with MD on this one. Just because we drafted a OG in the 4th doesn't mean that we don't want him to become a Pro Bowler in an ideal world. You hope that all the players you draft become big money players some day. Worry about paying them when the time comes and you actually have to decide which positions to invest the most $$ in.

So, we used our first pick on a WR instead of an OG. If Jenkins and Crabtree both become paid like #1s some day, we may have to part ways with one of them. Star WRs make a hell of a lot more than star OGs. So actually, if I had to pick the position on the team to put the most All Pros, I'd probably go with offensive line since 5 star OL are cheaper than 5 star skill players.

Perhaps.....but star WRs win you some Super Bowls.....just sayin'.

The skill players are the guys that win those playoff games......just look at the Giants last year....guy named Manningham.....helped beat the Niners in the NFC Championship game and the Pats in the SB...

You kind of help make my point. Manningham is a middling skill player, not a star. Manningham won a Super Bowl. Santonio Holmes caught the winner from Big Ben. You don't need a guy making Megatron money to make big-time plays. You also don't need to go to the same weapon every single time you need that big play.

I loved our draft, so I don't want to harp on getting DeCastro, but I am definitely all about dumping high picks into the trenches. I'm sure as hell glad we did it two years ago.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Same can be said for lots of players, Crabtree was one of the most heralded guys coming out of college. I'm not saying he's bad and he wont contribute, I hope he does great and lets us release Dixon and maybe Jacobs. I was just surprised by the pick and the round it happened. Hunter is dangerous in space and has shown to be a good upcoming player. I just don't know how we get enough touches to all these guys? I'm assuming Harbs puts in more pro set plays so we can line up any combo of Gore-Hunter-James-Miller and not show our cards.

I know I'm overusing this comparison throughout the threads, but look at the Saints. 6th in the league last year with 132.9 yard per game on the ground. And that doesn't even account for the RBs in the passing game.

Jacobs will be an afterthought and get a couple carries per game on 3rd and inches, if that. Gore-Hunter-James will be our stable of RBs. The Saints were also #4 in the league in yards per attempt, while we were 19th at 4.1 yards .

You need to look deeper in the Saints stats. Although ranked high the numbers and effectiveness are deceiving

BY OUTCOME
In Wins/ties
ATT-YDS
370-1920

In Losses
ATT-YDS
61-207

BY VICTORY MARGIN
Final Margin 0-7
ATT-YDS
112-426
Final Margin 8-14
ATT-YDS
126-609
Final Margin 15+
ATT-YDS
193-1092

In contrast even if a game is close we still run the ball.
Final Margin 0-7
ATT-YDS
225-952
We actually run more when the game is close oddly enough. NO is running when the game is in the bag. Now looking at their top RB for each game the numbers are funny. Some games the most yards by 1 of their guys is only 22 yards...he gained the most out of the whole group. On average the top guy out of the stable had 59 yards per game. Gore should be getting no less then 80 yards a game the way this team is built. We should be able to get close to 135 a game so that means Hunter/James will be responsible for 40-60 yards a game. I don't want the NO split where each guy gets 12 carries and accumulates 45 yards a game, Gore is a workhorse let him get the yards. Chances are we avg 27-30 carries a game and Gore will be good for 20 so who gets the rest? Working Hunter and James into the mix will be hard because the crumbs are small.