Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
When drafting for BPA, you're also looking at the guy most likely to contribute. I don't think Reyes has good value in the 1st round if he isn't going to be a starter. I think you can look at OLB or CB before going for 3-4 DE in the 1st. If the guy isn't going to start, then you find someone in the later rounds who can develop while playing here and there and eventually turn into a starter after a couple of years. Like I said, in the 2nd round that's an entirely different issue, but in the 1st you're looking for someone who at least will be a potentially large contributor to the team next year.
I wouldn't reach on a OLB/CB just b/c it's the 1st round rather than getting a killer DE who automatically makes our depth better, prolongs the health of some of our key players, and provides a potential future replacement if need be.
As for contributing, outside of WR, none of those 1st rounders would appear to take over the starting positions, and the WRs would be only b/c we lack depth. Here's how I'm judging the criteria of those guys above:
: Will be gone, but if there, becomes #2 TE (sorry Walker, Fleener just fits system better) and starts in 2 TE sets or split out in 3 WR sets
: Will be gone, but if there @ #30, wouldn't be upset with pick. Hasn't proven it on field, but his physical numbers make him worth the risk.
: Waste of a pick since he'd need to develop and would be battling with Byham for #3 TE
: Same person, big WR who have difficulty separating, but due to ESPN highlights get overvalued. MAYBE a late 2nd on them
: Last season, might be top 15 pick. This year, placed @ #1 CB role in Nebraska, showed limited talent. Wouldn't be mad with this pick, but I value Culliver/Brown/Brock more than Denard, and he'd be fighting for dime package role.
: Wildcard here. If we can't resign Snyder, this might become the "required" pick, but wouldn't be upset due to his size and talent for the run scheme. If Snyder comes back, does Glenn start over him?
So, by your argument, none of them would really start and worth the 1st round talent outside of Fleener and Randle, both of whom I think will be gone by #30. I'd rather reaffirm the DLine rather than reach on a WR (Rashaun Woods anyone?)
[ Edited by Crazy49er1313 on Feb 18, 2012 at 22:24:59 ]