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Kiper's Latest Mock

Originally posted by FredFlintstone:
those are the other teams that worry me picking him in front of us, those teams no doubt will be looking for a wr

Yeah but there's so many WR's in this draft, they can't all just be snatched up.


In the 1st round range you currently have


1. Blackmon
2. Wright
3. Floyd
4. Sanu
5. Jeffery????(depending on the combines)
6. Randle


I mean there's only so many teams that will draft a WR in the first round.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by FredFlintstone:
those are the other teams that worry me picking him in front of us, those teams no doubt will be looking for a wr

Yeah but there's so many WR's in this draft, they can't all just be snatched up.


In the 1st round range you currently have


1. Blackmon
2. Wright
3. Floyd
4. Sanu
5. Jeffery????(depending on the combines)
6. Randle


I mean there's only so many teams that will draft a WR in the first round.

Exactly, out of the "next tier" guys after Blackmon, Wright and Floyd, only one possibly two could really go in the rest of the 1st round. The DT talent is pretty deep at the latter half of the first round range, along with DB's, OT's and possibly 2-3 interior lineman going in that range (15-32) as well. Most likely there will be a run on those positions before everyone starts grabbing WR's since their is more value there later in the first compared to WR's after the top 3. Not everyone can be a 1st round pick.
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by FredFlintstone:
those are the other teams that worry me picking him in front of us, those teams no doubt will be looking for a wr

Yeah but there's so many WR's in this draft, they can't all just be snatched up.


In the 1st round range you currently have


1. Blackmon
2. Wright
3. Floyd
4. Sanu
5. Jeffery????(depending on the combines)
6. Randle


I mean there's only so many teams that will draft a WR in the first round.

Exactly, out of the "next tier" guys after Blackmon, Wright and Floyd, only one possibly two could really go in the rest of the 1st round. The DT talent is pretty deep at the latter half of the first round range, along with DB's, OT's and possibly 2-3 interior lineman going in that range (15-32) as well. Most likely there will be a run on those positions before everyone starts grabbing WR's since their is more value there later in the first compared to WR's after the top 3. Not everyone can be a 1st round pick.

true but how many times during the draft you see a team draft a guy that no one thought would get picked that early or over another guy like heyward bey over crabtree. it takes 1 team to drool over randle's size, speed and potential at a young age of 20 over a guy like floyd whos big and not that fast and also had issues with drinking. theres already rumors out there that wright is heavily regarded as the 2nd best wr or even the 1st on some teams boards then its a matter of combine numbers and weight with guys like jeffrey, floyd and sanu. will not be surprised if randle is the 3rd wr taken
Originally posted by sfout:
Why? Sure looked like he was capable of playing against the teams best corner if you ask me.

Secondly....

We dont need a "#1" we need another wr capable of putting up 1K in yards. Had Crabtree played whole season he would've broken 1K for sure, if we are going to expect Crabtree to post 1K, VD to post 800, we need a 3rd target that will put up similar numbers. Whether that 3rd option is Morgan, a fa pick up or a draft pick remains to be seen.

In this system VD is the #1 with our receivers coming in second place.

"Yards" isn't the issue - we need a receiver who can catch a ball on 3rd down and in the RZ.
  • sfout
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Originally posted by RDB4216:
Originally posted by sfout:
Why? Sure looked like he was capable of playing against the teams best corner if you ask me.

Secondly....

We dont need a "#1" we need another wr capable of putting up 1K in yards. Had Crabtree played whole season he would've broken 1K for sure, if we are going to expect Crabtree to post 1K, VD to post 800, we need a 3rd target that will put up similar numbers. Whether that 3rd option is Morgan, a fa pick up or a draft pick remains to be seen.

In this system VD is the #1 with our receivers coming in second place.

"Yards" isn't the issue - we need a receiver who can catch a ball on 3rd down and in the RZ.

I was basing it off of value in terms of production. We have people of capable of catching the ball consistently, just because its 3rd down their hands dont magically disappear after making a catch on the previous play. Crabtree can make RZ catches, so can VD, Morgan has been able to in the past, etc.

Your using a point I wasn't specifically illustrating, I was talking about how statistically we dont need another "#1 receiver" rather we need someone like Randle, Hill, or Jeffery or TEs like Fleener, Charles, Allen, Rodriguez, Green who is physical and capable of winning tight battles in the endzone and on 3rd down.
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by RDB4216:
Originally posted by sfout:
Why? Sure looked like he was capable of playing against the teams best corner if you ask me.

Secondly....

We dont need a "#1" we need another wr capable of putting up 1K in yards. Had Crabtree played whole season he would've broken 1K for sure, if we are going to expect Crabtree to post 1K, VD to post 800, we need a 3rd target that will put up similar numbers. Whether that 3rd option is Morgan, a fa pick up or a draft pick remains to be seen.

In this system VD is the #1 with our receivers coming in second place.

"Yards" isn't the issue - we need a receiver who can catch a ball on 3rd down and in the RZ.

I was basing it off of value in terms of production. We have people of capable of catching the ball consistently, just because its 3rd down their hands dont magically disappear after making a catch on the previous play. Crabtree can make RZ catches, so can VD, Morgan has been able to in the past, etc.

Your using a point I wasn't specifically illustrating, I was talking about how statistically we dont need another "#1 receiver" rather we need someone like Randle, Hill, or Jeffery or TEs like Fleener, Charles, Allen, Rodriguez, Green who is physical and capable of winning tight battles in the endzone and on 3rd down.

Our third down and RZ production last year would disagree with you. If had had receivers capable of catching the ball consistently, we wouldn't have had those issues. You are trying to assign a certain amount of yards to make a receever qualify as a #1, and that just makes no sense. A #1 receiver is one that makes those critical plays consistantly, and we do not have that.
  • sfout
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Originally posted by RDB4216:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by RDB4216:
Originally posted by sfout:
Why? Sure looked like he was capable of playing against the teams best corner if you ask me.

Secondly....

We dont need a "#1" we need another wr capable of putting up 1K in yards. Had Crabtree played whole season he would've broken 1K for sure, if we are going to expect Crabtree to post 1K, VD to post 800, we need a 3rd target that will put up similar numbers. Whether that 3rd option is Morgan, a fa pick up or a draft pick remains to be seen.

In this system VD is the #1 with our receivers coming in second place.

"Yards" isn't the issue - we need a receiver who can catch a ball on 3rd down and in the RZ.

I was basing it off of value in terms of production. We have people of capable of catching the ball consistently, just because its 3rd down their hands dont magically disappear after making a catch on the previous play. Crabtree can make RZ catches, so can VD, Morgan has been able to in the past, etc.

Your using a point I wasn't specifically illustrating, I was talking about how statistically we dont need another "#1 receiver" rather we need someone like Randle, Hill, or Jeffery or TEs like Fleener, Charles, Allen, Rodriguez, Green who is physical and capable of winning tight battles in the endzone and on 3rd down.

Our third down and RZ production last year would disagree with you. If had had receivers capable of catching the ball consistently, we wouldn't have had those issues. You are trying to assign a certain amount of yards to make a receever qualify as a #1, and that just makes no sense. A #1 receiver is one that makes those critical plays consistantly, and we do not have that.

I'm far too lazy to care about this because that logic is flawed, how many actual drops did we have on 3rd down? How many runs did we make on 3rd? How many times was Alex sacked on 3rd down? How many times did he throw a bad pass or intentionally throw the ball away because no one was open? How many times did the OL not open up the lanes for runs?

Receivers are directly responsible for only 1 of those possibilities, with the throw aways falling partially on their inability to separate and Alex's inability to pull the trigger on tight windowed throughs. Finding a "#1 receiver" wont instantly improve our 3rd down % from 33% to %75, maybe give us a 5 or 10% boost but it would be a bandaid in the long run. Overall scheme improvement(play calling, protection, route running(WRs) and working on Alex's willingness or lack thereof to throw into tight windows will be the greatest pieces in improving this team.
[ Edited by sfout on Feb 16, 2012 at 3:31 PM ]
Originally posted by sfout:
I'm far too lazy to care about this because that logic is flawed, how many actual drops did we have on 3rd down? How many runs did we make on 3rd? How many times was Alex sacked on 3rd down? How many times did he throw a bad pass or intentionally throw the ball away because no one was open? How many times did the OL not open up the lanes for runs?

Receivers are directly responsible for only 1 of those possibilities, with the throw aways falling partially on their inability to separate and Alex's inability to pull the trigger on tight windowed throughs. Finding a "#1 receiver" wont instantly improve our 3rd down % from 33% to %75, maybe give us a 10 or 15% boost but it would be a bandaid in the long run.

Yes you're right. Our 3rd down and RZ problems are to blame on everything EXCEPT the WR'S! Those 8 TD's the whole group had combined sure is stellar too!
  • sfout
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Originally posted by RDB4216:
Yes you're right. Our 3rd down and RZ problems are to blame on everything EXCEPT the WR'S! Those 8 TD's the whole group had combined sure is stellar too!

so is the 11 TDs that our TEs and FB combined for. Everything you just said indicates the system is responsible for the low #'s. Equal distribution with an emphasis on ball control. Finding this magical "#1" receiver wont instantly give us receiver that adds 10 to that total # of TDs.

I didn't say they weren't responsible for any of the issues, they are only part of the problem, I bet if we didn't change a single person in the WRs we'd probably put up better #s just because of the full off season program.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Yeah but there's so many WR's in this draft, they can't all just be snatched up.


In the 1st round range you currently have


1. Blackmon
2. Wright
3. Floyd
4. Sanu
5. Jeffery????(depending on the combines)
6. Randle


I mean there's only so many teams that will draft a WR in the first round.
Say Floyd, Sanu and Jeffery run 4.6 and Randle runs a 4.4, He may shoot up the draft boards over those guys. He looks like a faster Sidney Rice out there.
Sanu, Jeffery, and Randle would all be an upgrade to what we now have, thats for sure.
[ Edited by 9ersLiferInChicago on Feb 16, 2012 at 4:11 PM ]
Originally posted by sfout:
so is the 11 TDs that our TEs and FB combined for. Everything you just said indicates the system is responsible for the low #'s. Equal distribution with an emphasis on ball control. Finding this magical "#1" receiver wont instantly give us receiver that adds 10 to that total # of TDs.

I didn't say they weren't responsible for any of the issues, they are only part of the problem, I bet if we didn't change a single person in the WRs we'd probably put up better #s just because of the full off season program.

I disagree with that. I think our personnel is part of the reason the system was run the way it was. Harbaugh made use of what we have, and didn't try to fit a square peg into a round hole. All season long, people kept waiting for the offense to be opened up. Kept blaming the conservative offense on the shortened training camp and people becoming familiar with the playbook. Yet, it never really happened - because we didn't have the people to open it up.

You think if Calvin Johnson were to come here, he'd only have 4 TD's next year? Or that we would run so much on 3rd down? Of course not. But it's not even just about the numbers that a true #1 receiver puts up. Someone like that stretches the field, which will open up more things underneath. He would take some of the pressure and double teams away from Davis, and make him more productive. It would even help the run game. Not having that #1 WR out there holds this offense back, in many ways.
  • sfout
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Originally posted by RDB4216:
I disagree with that. I think our personnel is part of the reason the system was run the way it was. Harbaugh made use of what we have, and didn't try to fit a square peg into a round hole. All season long, people kept waiting for the offense to be opened up. Kept blaming the conservative offense on the shortened training camp and people becoming familiar with the playbook. Yet, it never really happened - because we didn't have the people to open it up.

You think if Calvin Johnson were to come here, he'd only have 4 TD's next year? Or that we would run so much on 3rd down? Of course not. But it's not even just about the numbers that a true #1 receiver puts up. Someone like that stretches the field, which will open up more things underneath. He would take some of the pressure and double teams away from Davis, and make him more productive. It would even help the run game. Not having that #1 WR out there holds this offense back, in many ways.

Thats what I said earlier then there are plenty options that would do that aren't "#1s" - We just need a playmaker whether its a TE like Fleener, a 6'4" WR like Randle or Hill, or speedster like Wright or Hilton.
Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:
Sanu, Jeffery, and Randle would all be an upgrade to what we now have, thats for sure.

Agreed, this is an amazing draft to upgrade/remake our receiving corp without having to sacrifice too much trying to trade up for the #4-6 (ranking-wise) bottleneck of receivers.

The one caveot to all this receiver talk is if Baalke doesn't want to be forced into making a play for the top 6 receivers since the value might not be there at #30, and they may be gone by the time we pick in the 2nd. Along with the possibility of so many top players falling in our laps like Fleener, Jenkins (unlikely but possible), Poe, etc. my guess is we go after a guy like V. Jackson or Bowe pretty hard to ensure we can choose the top player on our board regardless of position. Allot of teams in the later part of the first have a tendancy to get cute and start reaching for projects with great measurables at need positions... this team finally got away from that and it would suck if they started Balmer'ing this draft up.
Originally posted by RDB4216:
I disagree with that. I think our personnel is part of the reason the system was run the way it was. Harbaugh made use of what we have, and didn't try to fit a square peg into a round hole. All season long, people kept waiting for the offense to be opened up. Kept blaming the conservative offense on the shortened training camp and people becoming familiar with the playbook. Yet, it never really happened - because we didn't have the people to open it up.

You think if Calvin Johnson were to come here, he'd only have 4 TD's next year? Or that we would run so much on 3rd down? Of course not. But it's not even just about the numbers that a true #1 receiver puts up. Someone like that stretches the field, which will open up more things underneath. He would take some of the pressure and double teams away from Davis, and make him more productive. It would even help the run game. Not having that #1 WR out there holds this offense back, in many ways.

Man, you are spot on. Harbaugh and Co. really made due with what they had. The lack of a true number one WR made our offense quite defendable. But for coaching creativity we would have had a much longer season. This is what makes our hole at WR so glaring. Our offense was, indeed, held back because our WR just couldn't challange or threaten opposing secondaries. We had recievers consistantly disappearing in whole games all season. The minute we get a real number one WR we will be able to force defenses into their cover packages with Gore on the field. We can have all the bluechip TE's we want, but if you can't stretch an NFL defensive secondary you won't go far and you will get exposed at some point (see the Giants game).