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Kiper's Latest Mock

Originally posted by sfout:
dude you must not watch college football. LSU's offense was atrocious for 2 reasons
1. They run a spread option attack
2. They flip flopped QBs all season because they were both terrible.

I did see allot of LSU football since I bet on allot of their games

I totally agree with you on how craptastic their offense was... but it doesn't discount the fact that the production still wasn't there half the time. Out of that offense you dont expect huge #'s just like our Niner offense or the Broncos. But you also dont expect 3 games with 1 catch, 7 games with less than 3 for the #4 or 5 WR in the draft when a defense is putting 9 in the box to try and stop the triple option.
[ Edited by 5280High on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:37 PM ]
Mayock on Randle, Jeffrey and Sanu

Rueben Randle, 6-4, 208. Said Mayock: "I think he's going to run just fine. I've got a first-round grade on him. I have (Justin) Blackmon, Kendall Wright , Michael Floyd and Rueben Randle with first-round grades. I think those are the four wideouts that should go in the first round. From my perspective, Randle should go in the second half of the first round, in that 20-30 range. If he comes into the combine and runs a 4.38 at 208 pounds, that might change some things. He might go higher. But he's a guy who's extremely well thought of and a guy who could fit for the 49ers depending on how the process plays out."



Alshon Jeffery, 6-4, 229. Said Mayock: "He was listed at, what, 6-4, 229? I don't know what he actually played at. I've heard recently - and there are a lot of rumors out there - that he put weight on. I don't really care what he weighs in at. If he's smart and his agent is smart, he'll come in at about 220 and in the best shape of his life to run his 40. Just like Mohamed Sanu, just like a bunch of other big-bodied wide receivers in this particular draft - (Jeff) Fuller from A.M. - what they run is going to be important. Alshon Jeffery does not separate. He struggles getting off the line of scrimmage against quality press corners. The same with Mohamed Sanu. ... He (Jeffery) needs to come in and run somewhere in the mid 4.5s, worst case scenario. You start seeing 4.6, 4.65, it's going to be a problem."


Mohamed Sanu, 6-2, 215. Said Mayock: "I don't have Alshon Jeffery or Mohamed Sanu with first-round grades. I don't think either of them separates, they have trouble getting off press coverage. By the way, Sanu had 115 catches. Some of them were of the sick variety - really impressive, one-hand, beautiful catches. So he's a guy I want to like and want to believe in. But he's not sudden. He doesn't have great acceleration. In the NFL, everything will be contested. And that's where you get nervous with those big-bodied guys. If they can't get open, every throw will be contested."
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
After seeing those highlights and his upside I SERIOUSLY doubt he would last until the 3rd round. Mayock is pretty darned good and if he says the kid might not even last until the 30th pick then I'm pretty sure the Niners would as a minimum have to take him there or move up in the 2nd to get him.

I could see him going in the 2nd or 3rd depending on his combine, attitude, interviews etc. just not the first.

The Consensus top 3 is Blackmon, Wright, and Floyd... with Jeffry on the bubble of being considered a top prospect but after that theres:

Sanu, Randle, Jones, McNutt, Streeter, Hill, Toon, Quick, Fuller and Criner that meet the mold if Big & Athletic receivers. Thats 10 receivers projected as 2nd-4th rounders according to various sites and it doesn't even include receivers under 6'1 who may go in the first 4 rounds. All teams will view measurables and film differently, some will like the measurables of these guys more and others will want to see the measurables translate into production against good competition.

Im a production guy vs a "talent ceiling" guy so I would prefer a couple other names before him... doesnt mean he isnt legit or wont be successful, just a different viewpoint on draftee evaluation.

Also, Kiper is always biased towards great measurables so he can look back and say he "called it" when a guy makes a probowl and when he does he says "well thats why I had him as a late 1st rounder cause I had him as a boom or bust player"... he does it every year so he can stroke his ego on his hits while dismissing his misses.
To a lot of teams and their scouting departments that's what this whole process is about. That's why these guys are constantly being measured. They can look at tape any time to determine production. But if you were to base things off production you would miss out on tons of guys in the draft b/c everybody doesn't play in a productive system in college. Calvin Johnson is the poster child for that. Playing in a option offense limited his production. Or look at Crabtree and his production. He played in a system that was conducive to him being extremely productive. And you can easily name 6 less productive college wr's that are all better than him, that had better measurables. And all drafted after him. And it definitely goes both ways. There have been countless guys that were drafted on measurables and potential over production and were busts. Right or wrong a lot of gm's and scouts live by a certain criteria of measurables. Kiper knows this and that's why he does that. I think a great number of ppl fall in love with a guys size and speed and forget about the tape. To me it needs to be a combination of both,If a guy has all that measurbles then he should have been productive. So when a guy isn't that is also a concern. But it's what makes this so interesting to see how each individual turns out.
Originally posted by valrod33:
Mayock on Randle, Jeffrey and Sanu

Rueben Randle, 6-4, 208. Said Mayock: "I think he's going to run just fine. I've got a first-round grade on him. I have (Justin) Blackmon, Kendall Wright , Michael Floyd and Rueben Randle with first-round grades. I think those are the four wideouts that should go in the first round. From my perspective, Randle should go in the second half of the first round, in that 20-30 range. If he comes into the combine and runs a 4.38 at 208 pounds, that might change some things. He might go higher. But he's a guy who's extremely well thought of and a guy who could fit for the 49ers depending on how the process plays out."



Alshon Jeffery, 6-4, 229. Said Mayock: "He was listed at, what, 6-4, 229? I don't know what he actually played at. I've heard recently - and there are a lot of rumors out there - that he put weight on. I don't really care what he weighs in at. If he's smart and his agent is smart, he'll come in at about 220 and in the best shape of his life to run his 40. Just like Mohamed Sanu, just like a bunch of other big-bodied wide receivers in this particular draft - (Jeff) Fuller from A.M. - what they run is going to be important. Alshon Jeffery does not separate. He struggles getting off the line of scrimmage against quality press corners. The same with Mohamed Sanu. ... He (Jeffery) needs to come in and run somewhere in the mid 4.5s, worst case scenario. You start seeing 4.6, 4.65, it's going to be a problem."


Mohamed Sanu, 6-2, 215. Said Mayock: "I don't have Alshon Jeffery or Mohamed Sanu with first-round grades. I don't think either of them separates, they have trouble getting off press coverage. By the way, Sanu had 115 catches. Some of them were of the sick variety - really impressive, one-hand, beautiful catches. So he's a guy I want to like and want to believe in. But he's not sudden. He doesn't have great acceleration. In the NFL, everything will be contested. And that's where you get nervous with those big-bodied guys. If they can't get open, every throw will be contested."

VERY good read. I think the Niners need a big time WR that first and foremost can separate from the defensive backs. That is something they lack. I believe Mayock is the best in the business and trust his judgement quite a bit.
Originally posted by lamontb:
To a lot of teams and their scouting departments that's what this whole process is about. That's why these guys are constantly being measured. They can look at tape any time to determine production. But if you were to base things off production you would miss out on tons of guys in the draft b/c everybody doesn't play in a productive system in college. Calvin Johnson is the poster child for that. Playing in a option offense limited his production. Or look at Crabtree and his production. He played in a system that was conducive to him being extremely productive. And you can easily name 6 less productive college wr's that are all better than him, that had better measurables. And all drafted after him. And it definitely goes both ways. There have been countless guys that were drafted on measurables and potential over production and were busts. Right or wrong a lot of gm's and scouts live by a certain criteria of measurables. Kiper knows this and that's why he does that. I think a great number of ppl fall in love with a guys size and speed and forget about the tape. To me it needs to be a combination of both,If a guy has all that measurbles then he should have been productive. So when a guy isn't that is also a concern. But it's what makes this so interesting to see how each individual turns out.

I agree it's gotta be both, otherwise Jordan White would be the #1 draft pick based on production.

But even for your CJ example.. his last year he had 1200 yards, 76 receptions, and 15 TDs with a glorified running back throwing him the ball. Obviously megatron is a freak and no one even comparable to his measurables and production has come out since. But if we are talking 1st round grades for WR's, even with a revolving door at QB one would like to see more consistency at the college ranks before taking him at 30 even if he blows the doors off his 40 time.
  • sfout
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Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by sfout:
dude you must not watch college football. LSU's offense was atrocious for 2 reasons
1. They run a spread option attack
2. They flip flopped QBs all season because they were both terrible.

I did see allot of LSU football since I bet on allot of their games

I totally agree with you on how craptastic their offense was... but it doesn't discount the fact that the production still wasn't there half the time. Out of that offense you dont expect huge #'s just like our Niner offense or the Broncos. But you also dont expect 3 games with 1 catch, 7 games with less than 3 for the #4 or 5 WR in the draft when a defense is putting 9 in the box to try and stop the triple option.

I expect it when your offense is completely running based. Their top 2 RBs rushed it on average 35x a game, add in an average of 6 QB runs that is over 40 runs a game, compared to an average of 20 passes a game. They have 4 quality WR/TEs to spread the ball to in Randle, Odell Beckham, Russell Separd and Deangelo Peterson, plus the top 2 RBs. Think about that 6 targets with an average of 20 passes a game, thats an average of 3.3 passes for each receiver. If Randle caught 3 passes a game for most of the year that essentially means he caught EVERYTHING thrown to him.

Randle led the team in receiving production with 53 rec for 917 yards for an ungodly average of 17.3 YPA. All he did was murder people over the top or with a lot of YAC. Odell Beckham(a freshman for godsake - kid could be amazing in 2 years) was second on the team with 41 rec for 475 yards for an average of 11.6 YPA. Think about that if you want statistical production, Randle caught a mere 10 passes more then the next closest receiver and had DOUBLE the yards.
[ Edited by sfout on Feb 15, 2012 at 2:00 PM ]
Originally posted by sfout:
Think about that if you want statistical production, Randle caught a mere 10 passes more then the next closest receiver and had DOUBLE the yards.

Stephen Hill is coming out of a triple option that doesnt have the recruiting clout of LSU (less talent around him) and averaged 29 YPC... Coby Fleener, who may also be available at 30, averaged 19.6 YPC, Streeter who is pretty close to Randle in receptions had more YPC. Doesnt mean they are better or worse, just performed differently given their situations.

It's all relative, and everyone sees players differently... I just dont see him as a first round pick which was the initial argument in the first place, not saying he doesnt have skills or potential.
[ Edited by 5280High on Feb 15, 2012 at 2:14 PM ]
  • sfout
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Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by sfout:
Think about that if you want statistical production, Randle caught a mere 10 passes more then the next closest receiver and had DOUBLE the yards.

Stephen Hill is coming out of a triple option that doesnt have the recruiting clout of LSU and averaged 29 YPC... Coby Fleener, who may also be available at 30, averaged 19.6 YPC, Streeter who is pretty close to Randle in receptions had more YPC.

It's all relative, and everyone sees players differently... I just dont see him as a first round pick which was the initial argument in the first place, not saying he doesnt have skills or potential.

Bro you just shot yourself in the foot with this argument.

Hill is a 3rd round possible 2nd round prospect because as of right now he is nothing but a go route guy. He blocks and runs go routes, he has a ton of upside because of his athleticism and the fact that he is physically similar to CJ and Demeryius Thomas who are an elite and solid receiver respectively is helping him in terms of hype. He is way more raw then Randle.

Fleener doesn't even play WR but he is adept at running seam routes and is big and strong enough to shake off extra tacklers to gain YPA.

I laugh because you pointedly said you question Randle because of his lack of stats then you flip over and say it's all relative and their could be better options because talent.

Randle is by far one of the more complete receivers when you look at the top 10
1. Blackmon - complete
2. Floyd - complete on the field but off field issues
3. Wright - complete except for the lack of bulk makes him ill suited for RZ
4. Randle - complete if not for lack of statistical production
5. Jeffery - great hands and jumping but slow, bad routes, character
6. Sanu - great hands but slow, lack of separation.
7. Jones - lack of concentration, not the great routes
8. Criner - lack of concentration, off field issues
9. Streeter - go route, jump ball guy needs to improve routes
10. Hill - go route, jump ball guy, and not as fast as streeter

Just pulled that out of my a** and its almost spot on.
[ Edited by sfout on Feb 15, 2012 at 2:25 PM ]
With the possibility of 3 QBs and 5 WRs taken before our pick...somebody VERY solid at another position will drop to us.

It may be better to pick BPA at #30 and then trade up to the middle 2nd round to pick up a WR, should one drop.
  • sfout
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Originally posted by okdkid:
With the possibility of 3 QBs and 5 WRs taken before our pick...somebody VERY solid at another position will drop to us.

It may be better to pick BPA at #30 and then trade up to the middle 2nd round to pick up a WR, should one drop.

agreed.

This years WR group will be like last years QBs. Probably 5 or 6 selected by the start of the 2nd round.
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by okdkid:
With the possibility of 3 QBs and 5 WRs taken before our pick...somebody VERY solid at another position will drop to us.

It may be better to pick BPA at #30 and then trade up to the middle 2nd round to pick up a WR, should one drop.

agreed.

This years WR group will be like last years QBs. Probably 5 or 6 selected by the start of the 2nd round.

And this whole "draft a WR high" dialogue may be moot if we sign a top FA WR and Joshua Morgan.

I'd be very happy with a top FA WR, Crabtree and Morgan as our top three targets. We have needs at DL depth, OG and Safety that will be more pressing should we snag a top FA WR.
Originally posted by okdkid:
With the possibility of 3 QBs and 5 WRs taken before our pick...somebody VERY solid at another position will drop to us.

It may be better to pick BPA at #30 and then trade up to the middle 2nd round to pick up a WR, should one drop.


good idea. CB maybe???
Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Originally posted by okdkid:
With the possibility of 3 QBs and 5 WRs taken before our pick...somebody VERY solid at another position will drop to us.

It may be better to pick BPA at #30 and then trade up to the middle 2nd round to pick up a WR, should one drop.


good idea. CB maybe???

I'd take the highest DL, OG, S or CB that Baalke gave a 1st round grade to. If nobody with a 1st round grade is left, trade back.

This draft is deep at several positions. Let's work it, should the conditions call for it.

We truly have the luxury to do whatever we want with our pick. We do not have to force the issue.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Randle's combine will be interesting to watch. Right now, he projects as a marginally faster, taller version of Crabtree, which isn't necessarily bad at all.

That might not be such a bad comparison. If Crabs had more speed it would make a world of difference.