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OTC's First Mock of 2012

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Silly to ever use an H-back/FB/TE at OLB, and vice versa as well, I suppose? Be sure to memo that information to that Bellichik guy up in New England. lol.

My point was that there are a number of guys--Bowman, Grant, Gooden come to mind--who could play OLB, and Bruce Miller could as well "IN A PINCH" (out of necessity) (not all the time) (in an emergency).

(Aren't you the guy who was highly critical of the Miller pick in the first place, because it moved him to FB from OLB--only now you say that he couldn't possibly move back, even for a series if absolutely necessary? wtf?)

True, only one RB on the field at at time, usually. But other than QB, RB touchs the ball the most, and Harbaugh LIKES to run the ball.

Hunter may be an answer, but his size makes him somewhat limited in pass protection: DL and bigger OLBs can simply swamp him.

Gore is tough, and smart, but aging. The time to address the issue is now, not AFTER Gore goes down.

Just my opinion. We'll see how the draft plays out.

Fundamentally, our difference appears to be that you're looking at this from the "how to upgrade the team right now--how to find an immediate starter to strengthen some perceived weak point on the team right away." At least that's what you posted above.

I think Baalke is way ahead of that, and is thinking at least one or two years ahead.

Ninerdude, I'm not trying to antagonize. I don't know if I'm coming off wrong or what, but all I'm getting at here is a few things:

1) RB will be a low priority for the reasons I stated, but also as I stated BPA strategy reigns supreme.

2) I AM specifically talking about during a game. I'm saying we would first look to our other LBs before throwing Miller in at the position during a game in a pinch, because until we have no LBs left and needed to use Miller, it would be a bad idea to risk injuring him and having him out for an extended period of time (we saw how the running game suffered without him).

I hated, absolutely LOATHED the idea of moving a conference defensive player of the year to FB, but I'm glad they were able to take his skill set and intelligence and make a move that panned out. I really trust this staff. I was a staunch advocate of using Miller at both positions during the pre-season. Now, however, seeing how beautifully he works in the run game and even as a receiver, I see good reason to keep him healthy. I mean, don't we all?

I've never said he couldn't ever play there, I just noted that I don't think we can assume they'd use him as a backup unless they absolutely had to and had no other choice. Otherwise I don't think the team would ever move him.

I know that I, nor anyone else here knows the ultimate formula our GM has to determine the picks they make. What I do know from articles of interviews with various GMs in the past, is that GM's put at least some emphasis on "need priority" in calculating their boards, BUT it is WAY WAY WAY WAY less of a factor obviously than the talent of a player, no question. From there, the consensus is "Trust your board." If it turns out to be a RB, that's fine.


I think in a nutshell, I'm trying to say I think the likelihood of taking RB is low given a few factors and from studying Baalke's strategy. Let me show what I'm thinking here:

* We could've drafted J.J. Watt last year, and he's a monster, but we had McDonald, Justin, RJF, and Tukuafu. At OLB we only had Brooks and Haralson and then an underperforming FA Lawson who we let walk. This years OLB class is weak overall compared to last year (I think last year I graded eight 3-4 OLB as first-round talents). This year I see maybe two. However, I see 7 potential 3-4 DE first round talents. I think Baalke knew this and wasn't looking at just one year.

* This year I see only a couple first round RBs, while next year's class is MONSTROUS. Like our DE spot last year, we have RB depth and Gore started every game (although was held out during the one).


I would not be surprised to see us take a RB in the draft, I would only be surprised if it was very early, that's all. If we took one at a later point, we'd still have 3 guys backing up Gore, and then could pull the trigger on one of the many potentially elite backs next year.

Again, I do not know what value our GM assigns to the different variables, but based on analyzing his strategy, I think there is good reason to believe that RB is very unlikely in the first round.
[ Edited by OnTheClock on Jan 18, 2012 at 1:14 PM ]
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Ninerdude, I'm not trying to antagonize. I don't know if I'm coming off wrong or what, but all I'm getting at here is a few things:

1) RB will be a low priority for the reasons I stated, but also as I stated BPA strategy reigns supreme.

2) I AM specifically talking about during a game. I'm saying we would first look to our other LBs before throwing Miller in at the position during a game in a pinch, because until we have no LBs left and needed to use Miller, it would be a bad idea to risk injuring him and having him out for an extended period of time (we saw how the running game suffered without him).

I hated, absolutely LOATHED the idea of moving a conference defensive player of the year to FB, but I'm glad they were able to take his skill set and intelligence and make a move that panned out. I really trust this staff. I was a staunch advocate of using Miller at both positions during the pre-season. Now, however, seeing how beautifully he works in the run game and even as a receiver, I see good reason to keep him healthy. I mean, don't we all?

I've never said he couldn't ever play there, I just noted that I don't think we can assume they'd use him as a backup unless they absolutely had to and had no other choice. Otherwise I don't think the team would ever move him.

I know that I, nor anyone else here knows the ultimate formula our GM has to determine the picks they make. What I do know from articles of interviews with various GMs in the past, is that GM's put at least some emphasis on "need priority" in calculating their boards, BUT it is WAY WAY WAY WAY less of a factor obviously than the talent of a player, no question. From there, the consensus is "Trust your board." If it turns out to be a RB, that's fine.


I think in a nutshell, I'm trying to say I think the likelihood of taking RB is low given a few factors and from studying Baalke's strategy. Let me show what I'm thinking here:

* We could've drafted J.J. Watt last year, and he's a monster, but we had McDonald, Justin, RJF, and Tukuafu. At OLB we only had Brooks and Haralson and then an underperforming FA Lawson who we let walk. This years OLB class is weak overall compared to last year (I think last year I graded eight 3-4 OLB as first-round talents). This year I see maybe two. However, I see 7 potential 3-4 DE first round talents. I think Baalke knew this and wasn't looking at just one year.

* This year I see only a couple first round RBs, while next year's class is MONSTROUS. Like our DE spot last year, we have RB depth and Gore started every game (although was held out during the one).


I would not be surprised to see us take a RB in the draft, I would only be surprised if it was very early, that's all. If we took one at a later point, we'd still have 3 guys backing up Gore, and then could pull the trigger on one of the many potentially elite backs next year.

Again, I do not know what value our GM assigns to the different variables, but based on analyzing his strategy, I think there is good reason to believe that RB is very unlikely in the first round.
Its all good, OTC. Just a discussion.

Small point of correction: Gore did not start at Philadelphia, and was held out for most of the NY game.

The lack of depth at RB in the draft this year, which you point out, only increases the possiblity that if a RB they like is there in the first, they take him. A guy like Miami's Lamar Miller (the guy Ghost pointed out in his mock) appears to be a very viable possibility, and a guy with enough potential that they might not want to risk passing on him IF he's still there for them in the first.

It is, however, just as possible that they find a sleeper RB that they really like and nab him in a later round instead.

We agree, BPA is the overriding rule.

But my opinion, humble tho it be, is that its just as likely that they draft a RB as an OL in the first--I think the need for the former is as great, or greater, than the need for the latter this year. IMHO.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Its all good, OTC. Just a discussion.

Small point of correction: Gore did not start at Philadelphia, and was held out for most of the NY game.

The lack of depth at RB in the draft this year, which you point out, only increases the possiblity that if a RB they like is there in the first, they take him. A guy like Miami's Lamar Miller (the guy Ghost pointed out in his mock) appears to be a very viable possibility, and a guy with enough potential that they might not want to risk passing on him IF he's still there for them in the first.

It is, however, just as possible that they find a sleeper RB that they really like and nab him in a later round instead.

We agree, BPA is the overriding rule.

But my opinion, humble tho it be, is that its just as likely that they draft a RB as an OL in the first--I think the need for the former is as great, or greater, than the need for the latter this year. IMHO.

I just feel like, kind of how you talk about Konz, if there is a RB that good, I don't think he'll make it to our pick. The "if he's still there" is key. Goes for both players.

I think the following teams would all snatch him up beforehand: Bears (if they lose Forte), Bengals, Browns, Lions, Broncos, Patriots, or Packers definitely.

I think we just don't quite see exactly eye to eye on what is bigger priority for the team right now, perhaps. I put a little more value/emphasis on interior OL currently, while you think RB is more of a priority than I feel it is right now. But I'm okay disagreeing. Either way, I think we both trust this staff with whoever they pick.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
I just feel like, kind of how you talk about Konz, if there is a RB that good, I don't think he'll make it to our pick. The "if he's still there" is key. Goes for both players.

I think the following teams would all snatch him up beforehand: Bears (if they lose Forte), Bengals, Browns, Lions, Broncos, Patriots, or Packers definitely.

I think we just don't quite see exactly eye to eye on what is bigger priority for the team right now, perhaps. I put a little more value/emphasis on interior OL currently, while you think RB is more of a priority than I feel it is right now. But I'm okay disagreeing. Either way, I think we both trust this staff with whoever they pick.
Don't get me wrong: I'm as much in favor of taking care of the trenches first as anybody. In fact, given the need for chemistry on the OL, I'd make resigning Snyder a high priority. Nothing better for an OL than continuity, and Snyder solidified the OL when he took over for Rachal. Keep those five guys together for as long as possible--they're only gonna get better.

That said, I'd also put DL ahead of OL as a need. Justin Smith, like Gore, is not getting any younger. Time to start looking for a replacement now, not later. IMHO.

Totally agree with the bolded. The quality of the last draft was outstanding. Whoever they pick, I'm gonna assume that they did their homework and stuck with their board.
Originally posted by nw9erfan:
Just curious MD... If you could trade Aldon Smith for JJ Watt straight up today, would you do it?

I know you preferred Watt as the Niners number 1 pick in the last draft...

Watt. You take the elite big over small in every sport, because of he rarity of the athlete. Those who disagree: name as many productive rookie OLB's from this draft class. You have Miller, Smith, Kerrigan, Reed, Acho, and a few others. Then name the productive rookie 3-4DE's. How many on the list? Watt and..........

The Texans mastered the draft this year. They got an elite big man and rising stud in Brooks Reed. And picked up a Pro-bowl cb in free agency
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Jan 20, 2012 at 6:39 PM ]
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by nw9erfan:
Just curious MD... If you could trade Aldon Smith for JJ Watt straight up today, would you do it?

I know you preferred Watt as the Niners number 1 pick in the last draft...

Watt. You take the elite big over small in every sport, because of he rarity of the athlete. Those who disagree: name as many productive rookie OLB's from this draft class. You have Miller, Smith, Kerrigan, Reed, Acho, and a few others. Then name the productive rookie 3-4DE's. How many on the list? Watt and..........

The Texans mastered the draft this year. They got an elite big man and rising stud in Brooks Reed.


where are the strong spots in next years draft...anything we should pass on this year and wait till next year?
Originally posted by jreff22:
where are the strong spots in next years draft...anything we should pass on this year and wait till next year?

Absolutely loaded at safety: McDonald, Lester, Armstrong, and possibly a junior leaving early make it really strong.
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Originally posted by lamontb:
This draft is on point. Goodwin needs to be replaced ASAP.

disagee

goodwin has been solid as of last couple games

same with snyder

G is not a first round need

WR and CB are

we have a subpar WR core compared to all of nfl

we are one more CB away from being an elite defensive unit


I agree with your accessment except I'll add a big, fast running back also, like an Arian [spelling ?] Foster type.

The need for someone who can get around the edge or take it to the house for 80yds is missing right now.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Ninerdude, I'm not trying to antagonize. I don't know if I'm coming off wrong or what, but all I'm getting at here is a few things:

1) RB will be a low priority for the reasons I stated, but also as I stated BPA strategy reigns supreme.

2) I AM specifically talking about during a game. I'm saying we would first look to our other LBs before throwing Miller in at the position during a game in a pinch, because until we have no LBs left and needed to use Miller, it would be a bad idea to risk injuring him and having him out for an extended period of time (we saw how the running game suffered without him).

I hated, absolutely LOATHED the idea of moving a conference defensive player of the year to FB, but I'm glad they were able to take his skill set and intelligence and make a move that panned out. I really trust this staff. I was a staunch advocate of using Miller at both positions during the pre-season. Now, however, seeing how beautifully he works in the run game and even as a receiver, I see good reason to keep him healthy. I mean, don't we all?

I've never said he couldn't ever play there, I just noted that I don't think we can assume they'd use him as a backup unless they absolutely had to and had no other choice. Otherwise I don't think the team would ever move him.

I know that I, nor anyone else here knows the ultimate formula our GM has to determine the picks they make. What I do know from articles of interviews with various GMs in the past, is that GM's put at least some emphasis on "need priority" in calculating their boards, BUT it is WAY WAY WAY WAY less of a factor obviously than the talent of a player, no question. From there, the consensus is "Trust your board." If it turns out to be a RB, that's fine.


I think in a nutshell, I'm trying to say I think the likelihood of taking RB is low given a few factors and from studying Baalke's strategy. Let me show what I'm thinking here:

* We could've drafted J.J. Watt last year, and he's a monster, but we had McDonald, Justin, RJF, and Tukuafu. At OLB we only had Brooks and Haralson and then an underperforming FA Lawson who we let walk. This years OLB class is weak overall compared to last year (I think last year I graded eight 3-4 OLB as first-round talents). This year I see maybe two. However, I see 7 potential 3-4 DE first round talents. I think Baalke knew this and wasn't looking at just one year.

* This year I see only a couple first round RBs, while next year's class is MONSTROUS. Like our DE spot last year, we have RB depth and Gore started every game (although was held out during the one).


I would not be surprised to see us take a RB in the draft, I would only be surprised if it was very early, that's all. If we took one at a later point, we'd still have 3 guys backing up Gore, and then could pull the trigger on one of the many potentially elite backs next year.

Again, I do not know what value our GM assigns to the different variables, but based on analyzing his strategy, I think there is good reason to believe that RB is very unlikely in the first round.


What's your take on spending a late round pick [7th] on Demp from Florida [I think that is his name] in case his Olympic asperations don't pan out???
After the game today we may need to put a higher priority on a WR.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Silly to ever use an H-back/FB/TE at OLB, and vice versa as well, I suppose? Be sure to memo that information to that Bellichik guy up in New England. lol.

My point was that there are a number of guys--Bowman, Grant, Gooden come to mind--who could play OLB, and Bruce Miller could as well "IN A PINCH" (out of necessity) (not all the time) (in an emergency).

(Aren't you the guy who was highly critical of the Miller pick in the first place, because it moved him to FB from OLB--only now you say that he couldn't possibly move back, even for a series if absolutely necessary? wtf?)

True, only one RB on the field at at time, usually. But other than QB, RB touchs the ball the most, and Harbaugh LIKES to run the ball.

Hunter may be an answer, but his size makes him somewhat limited in pass protection: DL and bigger OLBs can simply swamp him.

Gore is tough, and smart, but aging. The time to address the issue is now, not AFTER Gore goes down.

Just my opinion. We'll see how the draft plays out.

Fundamentally, our difference appears to be that you're looking at this from the "how to upgrade the team right now--how to find an immediate starter to strengthen some perceived weak point on the team right away." At least that's what you posted above.

I think Baalke is way ahead of that, and is thinking at least one or two years ahead.

Ninerdude, I'm not trying to antagonize. I don't know if I'm coming off wrong or what, but all I'm getting at here is a few things:

1) RB will be a low priority for the reasons I stated, but also as I stated BPA strategy reigns supreme.

2) I AM specifically talking about during a game. I'm saying we would first look to our other LBs before throwing Miller in at the position during a game in a pinch, because until we have no LBs left and needed to use Miller, it would be a bad idea to risk injuring him and having him out for an extended period of time (we saw how the running game suffered without him).

I hated, absolutely LOATHED the idea of moving a conference defensive player of the year to FB, but I'm glad they were able to take his skill set and intelligence and make a move that panned out. I really trust this staff. I was a staunch advocate of using Miller at both positions during the pre-season. Now, however, seeing how beautifully he works in the run game and even as a receiver, I see good reason to keep him healthy. I mean, don't we all?

I've never said he couldn't ever play there, I just noted that I don't think we can assume they'd use him as a backup unless they absolutely had to and had no other choice. Otherwise I don't think the team would ever move him.

I know that I, nor anyone else here knows the ultimate formula our GM has to determine the picks they make. What I do know from articles of interviews with various GMs in the past, is that GM's put at least some emphasis on "need priority" in calculating their boards, BUT it is WAY WAY WAY WAY less of a factor obviously than the talent of a player, no question. From there, the consensus is "Trust your board." If it turns out to be a RB, that's fine.


I think in a nutshell, I'm trying to say I think the likelihood of taking RB is low given a few factors and from studying Baalke's strategy. Let me show what I'm thinking here:

* We could've drafted J.J. Watt last year, and he's a monster, but we had McDonald, Justin, RJF, and Tukuafu. At OLB we only had Brooks and Haralson and then an underperforming FA Lawson who we let walk. This years OLB class is weak overall compared to last year (I think last year I graded eight 3-4 OLB as first-round talents). This year I see maybe two. However, I see 7 potential 3-4 DE first round talents. I think Baalke knew this and wasn't looking at just one year.

* This year I see only a couple first round RBs, while next year's class is MONSTROUS. Like our DE spot last year, we have RB depth and Gore started every game (although was held out during the one).


I would not be surprised to see us take a RB in the draft, I would only be surprised if it was very early, that's all. If we took one at a later point, we'd still have 3 guys backing up Gore, and then could pull the trigger on one of the many potentially elite backs next year.

Again, I do not know what value our GM assigns to the different variables, but based on analyzing his strategy, I think there is good reason to believe that RB is very unlikely in the first round.

i dont see a rb in 1st round but with the emphasis the niners place on the running game and gore's age/injury history, im thinking that a guy who could carry the ball 20 times a game will be looked for either later in draft or free agency--maybe the niners can find the next arian foster