OTC's First Mock of 2012

We are just one draft away to be a real SB-contender, imo. I dont want any "wanna see if X can be a starter" now.

Originally posted by 9erred:

Originally posted by Wodwo:

I like this mock, it seems like you've got all the bases covered.

While I don't mind taking a lineman in the first, it just seems crazy considering how many high picks we've spent at the position. I like Konz from what I've read because of his versatility... he could play guard for now and replace Goodwin in the future.

I know this is a little off topic for a mock draft, but what do you think would be a better option: Signing a FA veteran guard and drafting a WR high or signing a FA vet WR and drafting a lineman high?

I've just been bouncing that thought around in my head. If your mock draft pans out, we're covered anyway, but I'm just curious what your opinion is.

I totally agreeing on the OL in the first. Kind of makes me want to puke. Bascially you are spending another high draft pick on OL is baffling.
Do the niners want to be the old Saints who had all high draft pick offensive line and no wins or the Saints of now, where you spend the high draft picks on skill positions. Re sign Snyder, and BAM, your OL is strong for a few years. Spend the picks like your draft picking up the best WR, OLB or CB with the 1st and second picks.

Baalke has no qualms selecting an OL in the first round (OT Davis). I run the mocks how I see it might fall. These aren't my wish lists, these are predictive. Just because we took an OL in the first before, doesn't mean we shouldn't now, especially if they're the BPA.

It all depends on who we see is the BPA. They'll create a board, and select from that. Players need to be a fit for what we want to do, obviously. Basically the point is, you can't just blindly go into the draft saying "WE ARE GOING TO PICK WR, OLB, and CB WITH OUR FIRST THREE PICKS NO MATTER WHAT." It just doesn't work like that. We'll fill our needs one way or another, but positionally, there's no assurance we'll select any certain position at any given spot.

I don't care whether we take a WR or OL in the 1st or the 7th, as long as collectively we go about this draft selecting the best players at each spot while also considering our needs. I trust these guys to draft smart, and I think we'll do that.

I see no reason to get upset on draft day if we draft a great future OL in the first instead of later on. If they're awesome players that help us win games, that means much more to me. It is often a very poor strategy to prioritize your draft selections by need.

I like the positions you adressed. The niners might like a quarterback later though if one falls. Guard in the first round I'm not entirely sure about. We have 3 first rounders on our O-line and a second rounder on the bench. The saints have 2 pro bowl guards who were not drafted in the first round. If we can get a starting quality WR or Corner in round 1 I think we take him. Adding a pass rusher and D-lineman is something we should do pretty much every year. The Depth behind the starters on the D-line is not up to par and we are lucky that they stayed healthy this year. Haralson and Brooks are average players who aren't very fast but we make due with them because of the great system. The Secondary has to be top priority for improvement as well. Also where's the pick at runningback? Dixon hasn't set the world on fire, Gore is an injury away from his career being done, and Hunter is not an every down guy big enough for 30 carries.

Originally posted by BillWalsh:

I like the positions you adressed. The niners might like a quarterback later though if one falls. Guard in the first round I'm not entirely sure about. We have 3 first rounders on our O-line and a second rounder on the bench. The saints have 2 pro bowl guards who were not drafted in the first round. If we can get a starting quality WR or Corner in round 1 I think we take him. Adding a pass rusher and D-lineman is something we should do pretty much every year. The Depth behind the starters on the D-line is not up to par and we are lucky that they stayed healthy this year. Haralson and Brooks are average players who aren't very fast but we make due with them because of the great system. The Secondary has to be top priority for improvement as well. Also where's the pick at runningback? Dixon hasn't set the world on fire, Gore is an injury away from his career being done, and Hunter is not an every down guy big enough for 30 carries.

The Saints got VERY fortunate to land the players they did at those spots. Nicks was considered 1st-2nd round talent that fell because of character. Evans came from a very small school and just happened to pan out. You take the BPA from your board. I don't think the Saints example is all that great.

Several of the top OL's are filled with early picks.

Patriots - Solder (1st), Mankins (1st), Light (2nd), Vollmer (2nd)
Giants - Snee (2nd), Baas (2nd), McKenzie (3rd), Beatty (1st)
Raiders - Veldheer (3rd), Wisniewski (2nd), Satele (2nd), Barksdale (3rd)
Ravens - Oher (1st), Grubbs (1st), Gurode (2nd), McKinnie (1st), Yanda (3rd)
Falcons - Blalock (2nd), Baker (1st), Mike Johnson (3rd)
Jets - Mangold (1st), Ferguson (1st), Ducasse (2nd), Hunter (3rd)

Saints are a bad example.

It's the same about QBs like Brady, Romo and so on. There are some positions out there which are filled by high rounds usually but there exist some exceptions. Those exceptions are then taken as USUAL examples that one can draft (near) future starters in the lower rounds....Not the best idea imo.

Sometimes there is a very good reason when some players go late. Some guys could be 1st-rounder but land in the 3rd or 4th due to injury risk or high character concerns. But a lot of them are just not talented enough to help out as a starter (in the near future).

Good Stuff

Originally posted by communist:
It's the same about QBs like Brady, Romo and so on. There are some positions out there which are filled by high rounds usually but there exist some exceptions. Those exceptions are then taken as USUAL examples that one can draft (near) future starters in the lower rounds....Not the best idea imo.

Sometimes there is a very good reason when some players go late. Some guys could be 1st-rounder but land in the 3rd or 4th due to injury risk or high character concerns. But a lot of them are just not talented enough to help out as a starter (in the near future).

Good post.

The difference between 2nd/3rd round picks and a 4th/5th round pick is that the former is selected with the expectation of being a starter by year 2 while the latter is slotted to be a backup/ST guy. Top half of the first round should start from Day One, bottom half should start by mid-season.

An All-Conference college player may never be more than a backup in the NFL based on a host of factors.

These decisions are made by humans who are sometimes wrong but for the most part, the pro scouts do not make many mistakes.

I see there are a lot of people that have been wanting to add a TE like Fleener. Thing is, chances Fleener makes it to our pick are slim to begin with. Fleener is someone that some think might even crack the 1st round. (I think he goes in the 2nd). But if we want to get a big, tall, TE to use as a WR like we run with Walker, the next best guy would be Ladarius Green of Louisiana-Lafayette. At this point, it doesn't seem like he'll fall out of the 3rd, but he might be someone that would have to be taken in the 2nd if you wanted to ensure you got him.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
I see there are a lot of people that have been wanting to add a TE like Fleener. Thing is, chances Fleener makes it to our pick are slim to begin with. Fleener is someone that some think might even crack the 1st round. (I think he goes in the 2nd). But if we want to get a big, tall, TE to use as a WR like we run with Walker, the next best guy would be Ladarius Green of Louisiana-Lafayette. At this point, it doesn't seem like he'll fall out of the 3rd, but he might be someone that would have to be taken in the 2nd if you wanted to ensure you got him.

Plenty of room on the Michael Egnew bandwagon.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
The Saints got VERY fortunate to land the players they did at those spots. Nicks was considered 1st-2nd round talent that fell because of character. Evans came from a very small school and just happened to pan out. You take the BPA from your board. I don't think the Saints example is all that great.

Several of the top OL's are filled with early picks.

Patriots - Solder (1st), Mankins (1st), Light (2nd), Vollmer (2nd)
Giants - Snee (2nd), Baas (2nd), McKenzie (3rd), Beatty (1st)
Raiders - Veldheer (3rd), Wisniewski (2nd), Satele (2nd), Barksdale (3rd)
Ravens - Oher (1st), Grubbs (1st), Gurode (2nd), McKinnie (1st), Yanda (3rd)
Falcons - Blalock (2nd), Baker (1st), Mike Johnson (3rd)
Jets - Mangold (1st), Ferguson (1st), Ducasse (2nd), Hunter (3rd)

Saints are a bad example.

How are the saints a bad example? I think we can get a pro bowl type guard in the middle rounds just as they did. Also lots of these teams you posted about signed some of those guys and didn't originally draft them. Although, if a guy is the best player on the board then take him, especially if he's a right guard. But it may pan out that a WR or corner is the best guy there as I originally stated. Also, Grubbs is the only 1st round guard I see on your list.

Originally posted by BillWalsh:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

The Saints got VERY fortunate to land the players they did at those spots. Nicks was considered 1st-2nd round talent that fell because of character. Evans came from a very small school and just happened to pan out. You take the BPA from your board. I don't think the Saints example is all that great.

Several of the top OL's are filled with early picks.

Patriots - Solder (1st), Mankins (1st), Light (2nd), Vollmer (2nd)
Giants - Snee (2nd), Baas (2nd), McKenzie (3rd), Beatty (1st)
Raiders - Veldheer (3rd), Wisniewski (2nd), Satele (2nd), Barksdale (3rd)
Ravens - Oher (1st), Grubbs (1st), Gurode (2nd), McKinnie (1st), Yanda (3rd)
Falcons - Blalock (2nd), Baker (1st), Mike Johnson (3rd)
Jets - Mangold (1st), Ferguson (1st), Ducasse (2nd), Hunter (3rd)

Saints are a bad example.

How are the saints a bad example? I think we can get a pro bowl type guard in the middle rounds just as they did. Also lots of these teams you posted about signed some of those guys and didn't originally draft them. Although, if a guy is the best player on the board then take him, especially if he's a right guard. But it may pan out that a WR or corner is the best guy there as I originally stated.

I'm saying the Saints are a bad example for those who want to use them as the standard for draft strategy when it comes to building a top offensive line. They are by far the exception. Most teams with top OL draft them early is all I'm saying. I will bold the players that were drafted by the teams they're on. As you see, like the Falcons, virtually the entire Patriots OL was drafted early by them. When you watch Brady play, he has all day to throw. I want that kind of OL.

I think we both agree on the BPA part -- if a guy is a BPA, and especially at a position of weakness for our team, you take him. But I think fans that say we should pass on a linemen, BPA or not, and force the issue of need, and go after say a CB or WR, they don't understand that that is not smart drafting.

Grubbs and Mankins are 1st round guards. Mangold is a 1st round center.

Peter Konz is a center, and the best in his class easily. He and DeCastro are the top interior linemen in this draft. Konz could feasibly play all three interior spots.

Originally posted by Jakemall:
I would be happy with that draft.

Taking Konz in the first would certainly relieve the issue of letting Snyder go. Maybe that makes it worthwhile...Assuming Konz is there.

I'd like to say we can go BPA, but it really depends on what we keep from our FAs.

Interior Lineman, Big Bodied WR, and a DB do appear to be our biggest needs..so this draft is a hit with me.

Personally, I wouldn't mind taking 2 Big WRs..one early and one as a developmental project and throw them up against the wall to see what sticks.

OTC - Is there a guard in the 2nd that you really like for that RG position if we aren't willing to spend a 1st?

Completely agree with this... The Niners have their slot/speed guy in K Williams. What they really need (besides a full training camp and Morgan's return) is a couple of red zone threats. It also might be wise to look at a lower priced FA WR too....wonder how much Manningham of NY will cost a team...

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Baalke has no qualms selecting an OL in the first round (OT Davis). I run the mocks how I see it might fall. These aren't my wish lists, these are predictive. Just because we took an OL in the first before, doesn't mean we shouldn't now, especially if they're the BPA.

It all depends on who we see is the BPA. They'll create a board, and select from that. Players need to be a fit for what we want to do, obviously. Basically the point is, you can't just blindly go into the draft saying "WE ARE GOING TO PICK WR, OLB, and CB WITH OUR FIRST THREE PICKS NO MATTER WHAT." It just doesn't work like that. We'll fill our needs one way or another, but positionally, there's no assurance we'll select any certain position at any given spot.

I don't care whether we take a WR or OL in the 1st or the 7th, as long as collectively we go about this draft selecting the best players at each spot while also considering our needs. I trust these guys to draft smart, and I think we'll do that.

I see no reason to get upset on draft day if we draft a great future OL in the first instead of later on. If they're awesome players that help us win games, that means much more to me. It is often a very poor strategy to prioritize your draft selections by need.

Completely agree with this... So much of success in the draft is preparation...and a little luck...or having guys fall to you who you thought would be unavailable. There are always real surprises that fall to the end of the first round so the Niners are going to have an opportunity to draft a guy that is probably in the top 20 in terms of talent.

The great position the Niners find themselves in now is that because of the great job their coaching staff has done this year developing talent, they don't have to reach to find nice players. Think of it....this team had 18 players either make the Pro Bowl team or are alternates. That may be a record. In other words, their roster is stocked. Now, they can just take the best player available at a few positions...in other words, draft the best CB, WR, OLman, DLman, or OLB depending on who falls to them.

If they want to target a particular player at a particular position, they now have the flexibility to do that too. That is the difference between where they are and where the vast majority of teams in the NFL are. In other words, the Niners are now in the driver's seat. Who has it better than them? Not many...

Cheers!

Excellent work, as always. As I have spoken with you about before, Peter Konz is a top level talent, and if he is there, it is a no brainer. This guy has All-Pro potential written all over him. I grade him as a top ten player in this draft right now.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Excellent work, as always. As I have spoken with you about before, Peter Konz is a top level talent, and if he is there, it is a no brainer. This guy has All-Pro potential written all over him. I grade him as a top ten player in this draft right now.

lol i thought u were banned?

anyway i dont know he may be all pro but if we resigned snyder id rather just pick up a CB or WR