There are 125 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

OTC's First Mock of 2012

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Draft grades are slowly starting to become clearer and clearer, although we still have All-Star games and the combine to come. There are some new names I expect to pop up at that time. Right now, I think most of us can agree the 49ers have pressing needs at OL, DB, OLB, and WR. It remains to be seen what we'll do in free agency, and I've seen everyone speculate that we'll sign a CB or WR in free agency, but there's no guarantee we decide to spend big. In any case, regardless of FA, competition brings out the best in players, and I wouldn't be surprised to see us go into the pre-season stacked at a couple positions. Anyways, here we go.

49ers to bring back:
QB Alex Smith - Goes without saying, really.
WR Morgan - Bring back one of the more trusted options by our QB.
WR Ginn - Valuable ST player. Don't overpay, but try to get him back.
CB Rogers - Best starting corner we have, currently. Lock him up for the near future.
FS Goldson - Franchise him if need be. We have no developing safeties and this year's FA and Draft crop are both weak. Next year's is quite good.
FS Spillman - Very valuable ST player and solid backup.
ILB Costanzo - Another valuable ST player.
OLB Brooks - he may not have all-star numbers, but he has very solid production and does a lot on the field that goes beyond the stats. He's very important to this team's defensive success.


49ers 2012 NFL Draft

1. Peter Konz-C-Wisconsin, 6-5 315 5.16
Konz is a guy that would immediately start on this team at RG, even if Snyder were to re-sign. I think the 49ers would have a hard time passing on a guy that could immediately upgrade one of the weakest areas of the team -- the interior of the line. How many times have we seen strong pass-rushing teams go right after the middle of our OL and blow up the center and RG for instantaneous sacks? Konz, bigger and stronger than Snyder, would stonewall such attacks. We are no longer a rebuilding team. Konz is the best center in this class and comes from a program that spits out some of the most well-coached and NFL ready linemen in the nation. He is a big reason that NFL prospects QB Russell Wilson and RB Montee Ball are able to have the success they have.

2. Andre Branch-OLB-Clemson, 6-4 260 4.77
Branch I believe would be a strong target for the 49ers as he is somewhat similar to Aldon Smith in that he brings the versatility of playing down on the ground and standing up, and he plays with great length and leverage which helps him push back opposing linemen. At Clemson he has lined up both at DE and OLB, so unlike Aldon, he already has a fair amount of experience dropping into coverage. If we lose Brooks, we'll need another starter, and Branch is someone who would be able to contribute early. Even if Brooks stays, we still only have 3 OLB. Branch brings both run-stuffing and pass-rush ability. With our team in need of more pass-rushers (Haralson is mainly used on running downs), Branch would make sense for us. This year, he finished his stellar year with 17 TFL and 10.5 sacks with 1 FF.

3. Stephen Hill-WR-Georgia Tech, 6-4 206 4.57
What do pretty much all our WRs have in common? They can block like madmen. But what are they missing? Downfield playmaking ability and the size to outmatch and outleap corners or safeties. Hill is a strong blocker coming from a run-heavy triple-option Georgia Tech system and he will come to the NFL raw with a limited route tree, but like Demaryius Thomas, he has playmaking ability and the physical stature of an NFL receiver. Knowing our tendency to look at potential, it wouldn't surprise me if we looked to grab Hill because of him being a fit already for what we want to do in the run game. I could see us thinking he could bring us what Edwards wasn't able to in the passing game. Despite being in an extremely run heavy system with a QB that is nothing to write home about, Hill put up 820 yards and 5 TDs on 29 catches, for an eye-popping nearly 30 yard average per catch.

4. Ryan Steed-CB-Furman, 5-11 190 4.52
Okay, so I'm guessing not many have heard his name, but don't be shocked if he starts getting talked about much more in the near future. Steed has been a straight-up playmaker his entire career at Furman with back-to-back-to-back years with four interceptions and 14 for his career, 3 of which he returned for touchdowns. He also had 4 forced fumbles over the past three seasons. Steed has already garnered enough attention to warrant participation in the Senior Bowl, where he will get his chance to shine among the best Senior prospects this year. The 49ers have no qualms looking into small school talent (Kilgore, Person) so I would not be shocked to see them select Steed. At this point, other small-schooler Trumaine Johnson will likely no longer be available, as his 6-2 200+ size and speed combo and production at Montana has recently shot him up into 2nd round consideration. Steed may not have that size, but he has good speed and compares very closely to another top CB in this class -- Vanderbilt's Casey Hayward. Steed has been a consensus AP All American selection in back to back years.

5. Jaye Howard-DE-Florida, 6-3 303 5.02
Think Ray McDonald. SEC defensive players are always argued as the best in the nation, and Howard helps support that reputation. Explosive and versatile, Howard would help provide a strong rotation on our DL. Howard's play this year will be rewarded as he will get a chance to raise his stock in Mobile at the Senior Bowl. He finished this season with 10 TFL, 5.5 sacks, and 2 fumble recoveries (1 for a TD). If Howard is no longer available here, I would think Nevada DE Brett Roy should get STRONG consideration. Roy was a monster for Nevada (17.5 TFL, 10 sacks, 6 passes batted down) and could be considered a poor man's Justin Smith.

6. Robert Golden-FS-Arizona, 5-11 200 4.54
When you watch this kid play, you see a lot of WOW moments. Some are good "wow" .. some are bad "wow" .. His aggressive style can often pay those kinds of dividends. Golden is often considered overly aggressive which can lead to blown assignments. With proper teaching, he could become a really good player though, considering his violent hitting ability and sensational closing speed on the football. Golden would replace the versatility of Reggie Smith while at the same time being a tremendous upgrade in speed and tackling ability. He has starting experience at every position in the secondary, playing full seasons at free safety, corner, and strong safety at Arizona. Like Culliver, the 49ers could ultimately decide he should play CB instead of safety, but many scouts believe Golden's skill set suits him best where he can see the field in front of him. If you'd like to see some of the potential of Golden, you can view a video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ1DwLpfiuk

7. Micah Pellerin-CB-Hampton, 6-0 195 4.49
Another small school corner who has been a lights out player at his level. He's a D-I transfer (from Southern Miss), and put up 4 interceptions this year to go along with 15 PBU's, which marked back to back years of 14+ pass break-ups. This year he stepped up his game in run support, chipping in 4.5 tackles for loss as well. Pellerin's clear potential and skill set are unlikely to go unnoticed, especially when coupled with the fact that he has NFL size and speed at 6-0 195 and expectations of clocking in the 4.4's. His outstanding career has bought him a trip to the East-West Shrine All-Star game coming up here soon and Pellerin could go much, much higher than this if he performs well there.


------------------------------------------------------

Depth Chart Quick-look:

WR - Crabtree, Morgan, Hill*, Williams, Ginn
OG - Iupati, Konz, Kilgore, Person
C - Goodwin, Konz

DE - McDonald, J.Smith, Dobbs, Howard*
OLB - Brooks, Aldon, Haralson, Branch*
CB - Rogers, Culliver, Brown, Steed*, Pellerin*
FS - Goldson, Spillman, Golden*
SS - Whitner, Colin Jones


Nice find on this Robert Golden guy. Like him alot
I could not argue with any pick here. Thank you for the great analysis and rational input.
Originally posted by lamontb:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by lamontb:
Originally posted by dj43:
While I believe WR is the greatest need, Konz is such a good player that if he were there when the 49ers pick I would not be terribly disappointed if they chose him. As OTC notes, a lot of the pass protection problems this year have come from the front of the pocket collapsing back into Alex. If Konz isn't there, then a big WR is a rather obvious pick if the value is right.

One area in which I disagree is in the secondary: Due to rule changes and the development of tall receivers, I believe it is imperative that the 49ers begin to draft taller DBs. Seattle has already done that and though they have not fully developed their guys, they are set up well to defend against the new wave of tall, athletic wideouts. The suggestion that the DBs in this mock being "only" 6' or shorter does not square with the way I see other teams going on offense. In a passing league with so many of the best receivers being 6'2" or taller I believe size should be given stronger consideration.
The thing is most of the taller CB just aren't fluid enough in the hips to be corners at the next level. it's why antrelle rolle had to move to safety. it's why folks think Patrick Peterson will eventually move to safety. Let's see what happens with Kirkpatrick from Alabama b/c he's pretty tall CB. But you really aren't going to find that many tall DB's b/c in college those guys have been converted to WR. If you are 6'5 with Calvin Johnson skills no coach in their right mind would let you be a DB. Seattle has that one corner that is 6'4 and at times he has really struggled. But look around there just aren't that many 6'2 plus corner backs. Nnamdi and Champ are the 2 biggest corners i can think of off top of my head.

I agree with all you say here. However, the issue is; with all these agile big guys playing offense, at some point in time college coaches will be forced to move some of those guys to defense in order to defend them. In the meantime, pro coaches are going to put pressure on from their side as they look for DBs that can defend a CJ or Fitz or Graham. Coaches are not going to stand idle on this.

The rule changes have clearly had the intended effect of opening up the passing game. A major way in which it has opened up is to allow guys like Colston, with less than burner speed, to play the game over the head of shorter DBs. Jimmy Graham has instant "separation" just standing at the LOS. The guy can reach over 12' with both hands. Defensive coaches are going to find ways to counter this...and the way is to insist on taller defenders. A tall guy doesn't have to have great hands. He must only be fluid with good speed. Scouts are going to find those players at some level.

Yea I agree. It's coming sooner or later. Might end up taking some guys from basketball that can't catch and see what they can do. Just like they find some of these tight ends.

You want power forwards.
Originally posted by lamontb:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by lamontb:
Originally posted by dj43:
While I believe WR is the greatest need, Konz is such a good player that if he were there when the 49ers pick I would not be terribly disappointed if they chose him. As OTC notes, a lot of the pass protection problems this year have come from the front of the pocket collapsing back into Alex. If Konz isn't there, then a big WR is a rather obvious pick if the value is right.

One area in which I disagree is in the secondary: Due to rule changes and the development of tall receivers, I believe it is imperative that the 49ers begin to draft taller DBs. Seattle has already done that and though they have not fully developed their guys, they are set up well to defend against the new wave of tall, athletic wideouts. The suggestion that the DBs in this mock being "only" 6' or shorter does not square with the way I see other teams going on offense. In a passing league with so many of the best receivers being 6'2" or taller I believe size should be given stronger consideration.
The thing is most of the taller CB just aren't fluid enough in the hips to be corners at the next level. it's why antrelle rolle had to move to safety. it's why folks think Patrick Peterson will eventually move to safety. Let's see what happens with Kirkpatrick from Alabama b/c he's pretty tall CB. But you really aren't going to find that many tall DB's b/c in college those guys have been converted to WR. If you are 6'5 with Calvin Johnson skills no coach in their right mind would let you be a DB. Seattle has that one corner that is 6'4 and at times he has really struggled. But look around there just aren't that many 6'2 plus corner backs. Nnamdi and Champ are the 2 biggest corners i can think of off top of my head.

I agree with all you say here. However, the issue is; with all these agile big guys playing offense, at some point in time college coaches will be forced to move some of those guys to defense in order to defend them. In the meantime, pro coaches are going to put pressure on from their side as they look for DBs that can defend a CJ or Fitz or Graham. Coaches are not going to stand idle on this.

The rule changes have clearly had the intended effect of opening up the passing game. A major way in which it has opened up is to allow guys like Colston, with less than burner speed, to play the game over the head of shorter DBs. Jimmy Graham has instant "separation" just standing at the LOS. The guy can reach over 12' with both hands. Defensive coaches are going to find ways to counter this...and the way is to insist on taller defenders. A tall guy doesn't have to have great hands. He must only be fluid with good speed. Scouts are going to find those players at some level.

Yea I agree. It's coming sooner or later. Might end up taking some guys from basketball that can't catch and see what they can do. Just like they find some of these tight ends.
oops
[ Edited by dj43 on Jan 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM ]
Originally posted by Wodwo:

I know this is a little off topic for a mock draft, but what do you think would be a better option: Signing a FA veteran guard and drafting a WR high or signing a FA vet WR and drafting a lineman high?

I trust this staff to acquire the right pieces one way or the other. I see ways we could accomplish a lot of good with either strategy.

Originally posted by jreff22:
So just to be clear you have us letting Grant walk without a tender? Also I thought we were using Person at OT not OG?

First Konz, if available ( I don't think he will be) would love the pick. Should he have any medical issues at the Combine? If Konz is gone who is you next guy? Any thoughts on Bruce Irvin? Hill I have seen ranked all over the place so without any combine numbers I cant argue the placement. Now going back to Grant any thoughts of looking for another ILB this year?

Any players you would stay 100% away from this year?

I think we may give Grant a mid tender at least and then a team will probably make an offer to him. This could be good for us, because we could still get compensation. If we want to keep Grant badly, we can offer him a higher tender, but I don't know if we'll do that.

Next best center after Konz is Ben Jones in the 2nd. Next best player? .. Too early to tell. Could be several guys. OLB Upshaw, DL Worthy or Crick or Poe, WR Sanu (although I like him, I want a bigger or faster receiver).

Think if Grant goes, we sign a veteran backup, vet min.

Person is a swing player who can play all positions. We projected him at G, but he played so well at T in the pre-season, that they believe he can play at both now.
.
Originally posted by dj43:
While I believe WR is the greatest need, Konz is such a good player that if he were there when the 49ers pick I would not be terribly disappointed if they chose him. As OTC notes, a lot of the pass protection problems this year have come from the front of the pocket collapsing back into Alex. If Konz isn't there, then a big WR is a rather obvious pick if the value is right.

One area in which I disagree is in the secondary: Due to rule changes and the development of tall receivers, I believe it is imperative that the 49ers begin to draft taller DBs. Seattle has already done that and though they have not fully developed their guys, they are set up well to defend against the new wave of tall, athletic wideouts. The suggestion that the DBs in this mock being "only" 6' or shorter does not square with the way I see other teams going on offense. In a passing league with so many of the best receivers being 6'2" or taller I believe size should be given stronger consideration.

This is just not realistic, dj. 5-10 or shorter is one thing, but great cover corners can shut down players bigger than them, like Revis. Seattle has protected itself from size mismatches, but guess what? They're vulnerable against both quick and speedy players. Victor Cruz roasted them. Browners INT for a TD was a lucky tip/bounce. In a perfect world, every corner would be 6-2 or higher. Sad to say, those types of corners are rare and when they come around they're snatched up instantaneously. There is only one corner that tall this year and it's Montana's Trumaine Johnson (who has seen a meteoric rise to 2nd round consideration).

There are NO other corners 6-1 or taller this year (if they are listed at that now, don't believe it. They'll be closer to 6-0, or shorter.) Stephen Gilmore and Donnie Fletcher are among the only corners likely to measure around 6-0 to 6'1/2". In the end, the evaluators have to decide whether or not 1-1.5 inches completely negates the talent a player has, or if it's negligible. I agree that height in our system has importance, but striking off a guy because he's "only 6 feet tall" seems crazy nitpicky. You eliminate your entire draft class basically. I think with our system, 5-11 and up is the apparent standard.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:


Snyder will likely be resigned, and that Stanford kid (Beeler?) might also be available and a year more mature. Center and/or guard doesn't seem to be much of a need.

Plus, Baalke's two OL picks from last season, Kilgore and Person, have had a year in the system and a year in the weight room--I'm betting he goes with them over another draft pick--UNLESS Konz is that much better than anyone else. (In which case he's not likely to be there late in the first.)

Loaded with assumptions here. No guarantee Snyder comes back, no guarantee Kilgore and Person both grow to the point where they can stand, nor is there any guarantee they don't get injured or something. Rachal is gone almost guaranteed. If he and Snyder both go, we have not only lost a starter, we have even less depth.
OTC, what's the deal with Hill? I couldn't even find his name on some mocks or list of top 150 players. Still others stated he was a fifth round draft pick because of his history of drops. I watched him in his bowl game and he looked as good if not better than the other bigger receivers.
Oh, and I like your first three picks here although surprised you went with a center first. I liked Sanu in the first but he reminds me of Morgan somewhat and I think Hill has a bigger upside. Since you went with Hill and I respect your judgement you changed my mind.
Other than getting a big WR, this is the first year I can't make up my mind what position I think should be addressed next.
Originally posted by Jakemall:
I would be happy with that draft.

Taking Konz in the first would certainly relieve the issue of letting Snyder go. Maybe that makes it worthwhile...Assuming Konz is there.

I'd like to say we can go BPA, but it really depends on what we keep from our FAs.

Interior Lineman, Big Bodied WR, and a DB do appear to be our biggest needs..so this draft is a hit with me.

Personally, I wouldn't mind taking 2 Big WRs..one early and one as a developmental project and throw them up against the wall to see what sticks.

OTC - Is there a guard in the 2nd that you really like for that RG position if we aren't willing to spend a 1st?

Just a couple right now: G Brandon Washington, Miami* and C Ben Jones, Georgia

Also to the bolded, I wouldn't be opposed to this either. I would welcome the extra competition. Patriots do that kind of thing all the time.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by dj43:
While I believe WR is the greatest need, Konz is such a good player that if he were there when the 49ers pick I would not be terribly disappointed if they chose him. As OTC notes, a lot of the pass protection problems this year have come from the front of the pocket collapsing back into Alex. If Konz isn't there, then a big WR is a rather obvious pick if the value is right.

One area in which I disagree is in the secondary: Due to rule changes and the development of tall receivers, I believe it is imperative that the 49ers begin to draft taller DBs. Seattle has already done that and though they have not fully developed their guys, they are set up well to defend against the new wave of tall, athletic wideouts. The suggestion that the DBs in this mock being "only" 6' or shorter does not square with the way I see other teams going on offense. In a passing league with so many of the best receivers being 6'2" or taller I believe size should be given stronger consideration.

This is just not realistic, dj. 5-10 or shorter is one thing, but great cover corners can shut down players bigger than them, like Revis. Seattle has protected itself from size mismatches, but guess what? They're vulnerable against both quick and speedy players. Victor Cruz roasted them. Browners INT for a TD was a lucky tip/bounce. In a perfect world, every corner would be 6-2 or higher. Sad to say, those types of corners are rare and when they come around they're snatched up instantaneously. There is only one corner that tall this year and it's Montana's Trumaine Johnson (who has seen a meteoric rise to 2nd round consideration).

There are NO other corners 6-1 or taller this year (if they are listed at that now, don't believe it. They'll be closer to 6-0, or shorter.) Stephen Gilmore and Donnie Fletcher are among the only corners likely to measure around 6-0 to 6'1/2". In the end, the evaluators have to decide whether or not 1-1.5 inches completely negates the talent a player has, or if it's negligible. I agree that height in our system has importance, but striking off a guy because he's "only 6 feet tall" seems crazy nitpicky. You eliminate your entire draft class basically. I think with our system, 5-11 and up is the apparent standard.
Perhaps the way I worded my post sounded too extreme. My point is that somewhere in the near future, size in a Db should be given strong consideration. If there are tall WRs out there that have fluidity and size, there will soon be bigger DBs as well.

As you said, 1-1.5 inches should not negate talent but when a 5'11" DB goes up against a 6'4" WR, the odds favor the taller guy.
Originally posted by Born49R:
OTC, what's the deal with Hill? I couldn't even find his name on some mocks or list of top 150 players. Still others stated he was a fifth round draft pick because of his history of drops. I watched him in his bowl game and he looked as good if not better than the other bigger receivers.
Oh, and I like your first three picks here although surprised you went with a center first. I liked Sanu in the first but he reminds me of Morgan somewhat and I think Hill has a bigger upside. Since you went with Hill and I respect your judgement you changed my mind.
Other than getting a big WR, this is the first year I can't make up my mind what position I think should be addressed next.

I think his drops were a product of the teams primary focus on running, not passing. So naturally, his opportunities were limited, and at the same time, his practice would be more focused on blocking, etc., than pass-catching.
Originally posted by Wodwo:
I like this mock, it seems like you've got all the bases covered.

While I don't mind taking a lineman in the first, it just seems crazy considering how many high picks we've spent at the position. I like Konz from what I've read because of his versatility... he could play guard for now and replace Goodwin in the future.

I know this is a little off topic for a mock draft, but what do you think would be a better option: Signing a FA veteran guard and drafting a WR high or signing a FA vet WR and drafting a lineman high?

I've just been bouncing that thought around in my head. If your mock draft pans out, we're covered anyway, but I'm just curious what your opinion is.


I totally agreeing on the OL in the first. Kind of makes me want to puke. Bascially you are spending another high draft pick on OL is baffling.
Do the niners want to be the old Saints who had all high draft pick offensive line and no wins or the Saints of now, where you spend the high draft picks on skill positions. Re sign Snyder, and BAM, your OL is strong for a few years. Spend the picks like your draft picking up the best WR, OLB or CB with the 1st and second picks.
Great job OTC as usual! Really like the picks especially the Stephen Hill pick
Originally posted by 9erred:
Originally posted by Wodwo:
I like this mock, it seems like you've got all the bases covered.

While I don't mind taking a lineman in the first, it just seems crazy considering how many high picks we've spent at the position. I like Konz from what I've read because of his versatility... he could play guard for now and replace Goodwin in the future.

I know this is a little off topic for a mock draft, but what do you think would be a better option: Signing a FA veteran guard and drafting a WR high or signing a FA vet WR and drafting a lineman high?

I've just been bouncing that thought around in my head. If your mock draft pans out, we're covered anyway, but I'm just curious what your opinion is.


I totally agreeing on the OL in the first. Kind of makes me want to puke. Bascially you are spending another high draft pick on OL is baffling.
Do the niners want to be the old Saints who had all high draft pick offensive line and no wins or the Saints of now, where you spend the high draft picks on skill positions. Re sign Snyder, and BAM, your OL is strong for a few years. Spend the picks like your draft picking up the best WR, OLB or CB with the 1st and second picks.

I don't know if the Saints are the best example. They chose Ingrim in the first round last year, who isn't a real upgrade over what they have, and they would have been better off drafting defense. I agree with the sentiment though. I would rather see how Kilgore pans out before using another 1st round pick on a OL.