To many needs to over draft a QB

Originally posted by dj43:
Winning teams draft the BPA. Desperate teams draft for need.

In this case, the 49ers should draft BPA regardless of where they pick; #5, #8, where ever. If Luck comes out, he will go to Carolina. Unless the 49ers are willing to give up Willis, they won't be able to get Luck away from the Panthers. If Luck does't come out, then it doesn't matter anyway. I don't see any of the other QBs that are coming out that will be worth a top 10 pick.

The next biggest need is a pass rusher, more so than a CB. A pass rusher will make the entire secondary look better because opposing QBs will have much less time to find a receiver. There are a couple of guys who might be worth a #5 pick although there is a lot of testing to be done.

After that come CB and there should be a good one there when they pick.

What really complicates this is that it is clear Troy isn't the answer but Alex would be a good intermediate working until a rookie comes on. The trouble with that is that Alex is very unlikely to want to stay here after all the garbage he has taken from the fans, not that his performance has been spectacular but he has been hampered as no other QB in a long time.

All that being said, they may have to reach in the second round or trade back into the first but when you have a chance for an impact player, even if it is not your greatest need, you get the impact guy. Don't reach for need. That is a waste of draft value.

I agee with everything you said except keepng Alex. No matter how you slice it, the personalites, politics, lack of performance and the mental drain of keeping Alex aboard would hinder this team's, as well as, Alex's performance and growth. He could not even handle Sing calling him out, how in the hell do some you expect for him to handle another coach, another system, another set of expectations, etc... Some of you speak of Nate's learning disabilities, but as one poster pointed out, Alex has demonstrated that he too has a learning disability; which was explicitly expresed by his college coach!

At least with another team, Alex may have a fighting chance. Right now, he and the 49ers are a bad marriage and nothinbg can change that. If you are a fan of Alex, you should hope that the end of the season marks an official divorce! It would simply be unfair to this team and Alex if he remains with the organization.

Originally posted by ttime1:

Originally posted by dj43:
Winning teams draft the BPA. Desperate teams draft for need.

In this case, the 49ers should draft BPA regardless of where they pick; #5, #8, where ever. If Luck comes out, he will go to Carolina. Unless the 49ers are willing to give up Willis, they won't be able to get Luck away from the Panthers. If Luck does't come out, then it doesn't matter anyway. I don't see any of the other QBs that are coming out that will be worth a top 10 pick.

The next biggest need is a pass rusher, more so than a CB. A pass rusher will make the entire secondary look better because opposing QBs will have much less time to find a receiver. There are a couple of guys who might be worth a #5 pick although there is a lot of testing to be done.

After that come CB and there should be a good one there when they pick.

What really complicates this is that it is clear Troy isn't the answer but Alex would be a good intermediate working until a rookie comes on. The trouble with that is that Alex is very unlikely to want to stay here after all the garbage he has taken from the fans, not that his performance has been spectacular but he has been hampered as no other QB in a long time.

All that being said, they may have to reach in the second round or trade back into the first but when you have a chance for an impact player, even if it is not your greatest need, you get the impact guy. Don't reach for need. That is a waste of draft value.

I agee with everything you said except keepng Alex. No matter how you slice it, the personalites, politics, lack of performance and the mental drain of keeping Alex aboard would hinder this team's, as well as, Alex's performance and growth. He could not even handle Sing calling him out, how in the hell do some you expect for him to handle another coach, another system, another set of expectations, etc... Some of you speak of Nate's learning disabilities, but as one poster pointed out, Alex has demonstrated that he too has a learning disability; which was explicitly expresed by his college coach!

At least with another team, Alex may have a fighting chance. Right now, he and the 49ers are a bad marriage and nothinbg can change that. If you are a fan of Alex, you should hope that the end of the season marks an official divorce! It would simply be unfair to this team and Alex if he remains with the organization.

He couldn't handle Sing calling him out? I'm pretty sure he came back to lead the team down the field on three drives and threw two touchdowns in less than a quarter following that interaction.

Originally posted by nvninerfan1:
You realize that if Gruden is our HC, we'll draft nothing but QBs. We also sign a bunch of FA QBs. We be running the all QB offense.

Well then, sounds like Gruden is our man.

Originally posted by LBSI9ers:

Originally posted by Kolohe:
Draft a QB and settle it, we can plug holes during free agency.

Didn't we do this when we drafted Alex Smith? Or didn't the Lions settle their problems with Stafford? Or the bears with Rex Grossman? Or maybe the Raiders have settled their QB problems with Jamarcus? Speaking of the Raiders doesn't look like Campbell helped the Skins much. Vince Young anyone? Drafting a QB takes skills. These skills aren't currently employed by the niners. And for the simple people who point to Rothesberger, Rivers, Matty ice, Cutler etc yep none of this Years QBs are close to the skill level of these guys. I don't care if we land Mike Vick himself we are gonna give up points after points with the worst secondary in the league and that is why we are not in the playoffs. No way we slide Clements to safety at twelve million next year. Not gonna happen.

It is clear you didn't watch these prospects in college. First off, Andrew Luck is miles ahead of any one of these quarterbacks. Secondly, Ryan Mallet is right on par with Big Ben and Cutler coming out of college. In fact Cutler/Big Ben and Mallet share very similar qualities. You are expecting a perfect qb, none of these qb's were perfect coming out. Roetehlisberger played against bad competition, Cutler was an int machine who had a tendency to throw the ball up for grabs. He also looked very average at the senior bowl. I would rate Mallet ahead of Cutler if they were in the same draft class.

Originally posted by Gavintech:

Originally posted by thedude:
A good QB could do more to make this team better than any other need. I wouldn't reach for a QB if there's obvious better talent, but I'd be disappointed if we didn't grab a QB with our first two picks or make a move for an existing NFL QB.

We MIGHT have won an extra game or two if Tom Brady was our QB this year. And that is IF he wasn't knocked out of action for a game or two (or more) because we can't protect him.

The QB doesn't matter with no time to throw the ball. We have somewhere near the worst O-Line in the NFL and until that changes to at least average, our QB won't matter.

I gotta say I find this to be a ridiculous statement. Tom Brady, while losing his best WR in Moss, and with a poor / below average defense, and with inexperienced youth all around, and with injuries to his lineman, has the Pats as the best team in the league. I'd wager he could win more than an "extra game or two."

The QB always matters, always, always, always. Pittsburgh has had a makeshift / poor line for years now and continues to win with Big Ben. Look at Green Bay and all the protection problems they have. A huge part of pass protection is playcalling and a lot of ills of our o-line can be cured with a decent QB and better play calling (I don't know, may be call a damn screen once and a while.)

Originally posted by RKab:

Originally posted by Gavintech:

Originally posted by thedude:
A good QB could do more to make this team better than any other need. I wouldn't reach for a QB if there's obvious better talent, but I'd be disappointed if we didn't grab a QB with our first two picks or make a move for an existing NFL QB.

We MIGHT have won an extra game or two if Tom Brady was our QB this year. And that is IF he wasn't knocked out of action for a game or two (or more) because we can't protect him.

The QB doesn't matter with no time to throw the ball. We have somewhere near the worst O-Line in the NFL and until that changes to at least average, our QB won't matter.

I gotta say I find this to be a ridiculous statement. Tom Brady, while losing his best WR in Moss, and with a poor / below average defense, and with inexperienced youth all around, and with injuries to his lineman, has the Pats as the best team in the league. I'd wager he could win more than an "extra game or two."

The QB always matters, always, always, always. Pittsburgh has had a makeshift / poor line for years now and continues to win with Big Ben. Look at Green Bay and all the protection problems they have. A huge part of pass protection is playcalling and a lot of ills of our o-line can be cured with a decent QB and better play calling (I don't know, may be call a damn screen once and a while.)

I'd argue that he didn't lose his best receiver in Moss, Welker is his best receiver. And the defense? When did I say anything about the defense and WTF does it have to do with anything? Above all else Brady is in the perfect system for him and he has ALL DAY to throw the ball. This isn't just this year, it's always. And when he doesn't he doesn't play well. Yes, he's much better than Alex will ever be but that doesn't change the fact that he wouldn't be able to succeed here either. He'd have helped this team do a little better than it has this season, but not by that much.

I agree you can fix a little bit of a bad o-line's problems with playcalling/scheme but that hasn't been done here the last couple of years so it's not worth talking about when talking about the past. Going forward, I hope that changes.

i would say that the QB is our biggest need

Originally posted by 49oz2superbowl:

Originally posted by LBSI9ers:

Originally posted by Kolohe:
Draft a QB and settle it, we can plug holes during free agency.

Didn't we do this when we drafted Alex Smith? Or didn't the Lions settle their problems with Stafford? Or the bears with Rex Grossman? Or maybe the Raiders have settled their QB problems with Jamarcus? Speaking of the Raiders doesn't look like Campbell helped the Skins much. Vince Young anyone? Drafting a QB takes skills. These skills aren't currently employed by the niners. And for the simple people who point to Rothesberger, Rivers, Matty ice, Cutler etc yep none of this Years QBs are close to the skill level of these guys. I don't care if we land Mike Vick himself we are gonna give up points after points with the worst secondary in the league and that is why we are not in the playoffs. No way we slide Clements to safety at twelve million next year. Not gonna happen.

It is clear you didn't watch these prospects in college. First off, Andrew Luck is miles ahead of any one of these quarterbacks. Secondly, Ryan Mallet is right on par with Big Ben and Cutler coming out of college. In fact Cutler/Big Ben and Mallet share very similar qualities. You are expecting a perfect qb, none of these qb's were perfect coming out. Roetehlisberger played against bad competition, Cutler was an int machine who had a tendency to throw the ball up for grabs. He also looked very average at the senior bowl. I would rate Mallet ahead of Cutler if they were in the same draft class.

This is what I was trying to point out,, who's to say Luck, Mallett, Locker and Newton won't be studs when they haven't played an NFL game yet.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Let's take a quick look at the playoff teams this year, and where their QBs were drafted:

PHI - Vick (1st rounder)
CHI - Cutler (1st)
GB - Rodgers (1st)
ATL - Ryan (1st)
NO - Brees (2nd)
NE - Brady (6th)
NYJ - Sanchez (1st)
BAL - Flacco (1st)
PIT - Roethlisberger (1st)
IND - Manning (1st)
KC - Cassel (7th)

The NFC West is undecided between either Bradford (1st) or Hasselbeck (6th). Also the Giants with Manning (1st) still have a shot. So do the Bucs with Freeman (1st). But the above results speak for themselves:

11 Teams
8 First Round QBs
1 Second Rounder
1 Sixth
1 7th

QB is too important to not take in Round 1

Pretty hot damn compelling argument.

Things have changed in the league over the years, it used to be you could get by with a little less at the QB spot....now you gotta have a QB who is above average if you are going to go anywhere nowadays. To get one of those, the odds are you won't find one any place other than the 1st round of the draft (as your post illustrates perfectly).

Originally posted by Gavintech:

Originally posted by ninerlifer:

Originally posted by LBSI9ers:

Originally posted by ninerlifer:

Originally posted by LBSI9ers:

Originally posted by Kolohe:
Draft a QB and settle it, we can plug holes during free agency.

Didn't we do this when we drafted Alex Smith? Or didn't the Lions settle their problems with Stafford? Or the bears with Rex Grossman? Or maybe the Raiders have settled their QB problems with Jamarcus? Speaking of the Raiders doesn't look like Campbell helped the Skins much. Vince Young anyone? Drafting a QB takes skills. These skills aren't currently employed by the niners. And for the simple people who point to Rothesberger, Rivers, Matty ice, Cutler etc yep none of this Years QBs are close to the skill level of these guys. I don't care if we land Mike Vick himself we are gonna give up points after points with the worst secondary in the league and that is why we are not in the playoffs. No way we slide Clements to safety at twelve million next year. Not gonna happen.

Nicedude thanks for the input
You have lost all credibility

you have lost more credibility to look at the posts I made for the "input" you require.

There are 4 1st round calibur qb's that we have to look at. For all the busts that there have been in the 1st, there are many successes as well.

There are WAY more 1st round QB's that don't pan out than those that do.

You can say that for every position in every round. the draft is a 50/50 shot. Some make it, some dont...You cant be shy and not take a talent, just because it didnt work the last time.

Originally posted by Gavintech:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Let's take a quick look at the playoff teams this year, and where their QBs were drafted:

PHI - Vick (1st rounder)
CHI - Cutler (1st)
GB - Rodgers (1st)
ATL - Ryan (1st)
NO - Brees (2nd)
NE - Brady (6th)
NYJ - Sanchez (1st)
BAL - Flacco (1st)
PIT - Roethlisberger (1st)
IND - Manning (1st)
KC - Cassel (7th)

The NFC West is undecided between either Bradford (1st) or Hasselbeck (6th). Also the Giants with Manning (1st) still have a shot. So do the Bucs with Freeman (1st). But the above results speak for themselves:

11 Teams
8 First Round QBs
1 Second Rounder
1 Sixth
1 7th

QB is too important to not take in Round 1

How many teams NOT in the playoffs have 1st round QBs? That stat means nothing because the 1st round of every NFL draft is loaded with QBs (and OTs and D-linemen). It's obvious that a lot of playoff teams are going to have 1st round QBs because there are more QBs taken in the first round most years than any other round.

If there is an average of 4 QBs taken in the 1st round every year and a 1st round NFL QBs career is 10 years EVERY TEAM would have a stud 1st round QB by now. But they don't, more of them don't succeed than do.

The teams that have 1st round QB's on as their "projected starters" to start the season and are NOT going to the playoffs are :

CIN - Palmer
TEN - Young
OAK - Campbell
SD - Rivers
NYG - Manning
WAS - Mcnabb
DET - Stafford (injured most of the year though)
TB - Freeman
SF - Smith

So out of the 12 playoff teams, 9 have 1st round QB's. Out of the 20 non playoff teams, 9 are 1st round QB's. Take that for what it's worth

Originally posted by Gavintech:

Originally posted by RKab:

Originally posted by Gavintech:

Originally posted by thedude:
A good QB could do more to make this team better than any other need. I wouldn't reach for a QB if there's obvious better talent, but I'd be disappointed if we didn't grab a QB with our first two picks or make a move for an existing NFL QB.

We MIGHT have won an extra game or two if Tom Brady was our QB this year. And that is IF he wasn't knocked out of action for a game or two (or more) because we can't protect him.

The QB doesn't matter with no time to throw the ball. We have somewhere near the worst O-Line in the NFL and until that changes to at least average, our QB won't matter.

I gotta say I find this to be a ridiculous statement. Tom Brady, while losing his best WR in Moss, and with a poor / below average defense, and with inexperienced youth all around, and with injuries to his lineman, has the Pats as the best team in the league. I'd wager he could win more than an "extra game or two."

The QB always matters, always, always, always. Pittsburgh has had a makeshift / poor line for years now and continues to win with Big Ben. Look at Green Bay and all the protection problems they have. A huge part of pass protection is playcalling and a lot of ills of our o-line can be cured with a decent QB and better play calling (I don't know, may be call a damn screen once and a while.)

I'd argue that he didn't lose his best receiver in Moss, Welker is his best receiver. And the defense? When did I say anything about the defense and WTF does it have to do with anything? Above all else Brady is in the perfect system for him and he has ALL DAY to throw the ball. This isn't just this year, it's always. And when he doesn't he doesn't play well. Yes, he's much better than Alex will ever be but that doesn't change the fact that he wouldn't be able to succeed here either. He'd have helped this team do a little better than it has this season, but not by that much.

I agree you can fix a little bit of a bad o-line's problems with playcalling/scheme but that hasn't been done here the last couple of years so it's not worth talking about when talking about the past. Going forward, I hope that changes.

I don't think the argument is fair to be honest. If we had Brady, I'm almost certain the OC will have MUCH MORE confidence in him to make plays so the playcalling will be a TAD different.

Brady is also very quick with his reads and release. He knows where the ball is going. It seems as if Alex only knows his 1st option and his checkdown and their are 5 targets to throw to most of the time Troy seemed like he was going through his progressions because of how long the ball was in his hands but he wasn't, he was just holding onto the ball and waiting for someone to break open.

Brady gets the ball out VERY QUICKLY and puts it into a very tight window. Our QB's can't do that. Brady has confidence to throw the ball before they finish their route. Our QB's don't do that. Our Receivers and O-line are not the best but will look MUCH BETTER with a QB like Brady, I promise you that.

[ Edited by Sims84 on Dec 28, 2010 at 16:01:12 ]

Originally posted by Sims84:

Originally posted by Gavintech:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Let's take a quick look at the playoff teams this year, and where their QBs were drafted:

PHI - Vick (1st rounder)
CHI - Cutler (1st)
GB - Rodgers (1st)
ATL - Ryan (1st)
NO - Brees (2nd)
NE - Brady (6th)
NYJ - Sanchez (1st)
BAL - Flacco (1st)
PIT - Roethlisberger (1st)
IND - Manning (1st)
KC - Cassel (7th)

The NFC West is undecided between either Bradford (1st) or Hasselbeck (6th). Also the Giants with Manning (1st) still have a shot. So do the Bucs with Freeman (1st). But the above results speak for themselves:

11 Teams
8 First Round QBs
1 Second Rounder
1 Sixth
1 7th

QB is too important to not take in Round 1

How many teams NOT in the playoffs have 1st round QBs? That stat means nothing because the 1st round of every NFL draft is loaded with QBs (and OTs and D-linemen). It's obvious that a lot of playoff teams are going to have 1st round QBs because there are more QBs taken in the first round most years than any other round.

If there is an average of 4 QBs taken in the 1st round every year and a 1st round NFL QBs career is 10 years EVERY TEAM would have a stud 1st round QB by now. But they don't, more of them don't succeed than do.

The teams that have 1st round QB's on as their "projected starters" to start the season and are NOT going to the playoffs are :

CIN - Palmer
TEN - Young
OAK - Campbell
SD - Rivers
NYG - Manning
WAS - Mcnabb
DET - Stafford (injured most of the year though)
TB - Freeman
SF - Smith

So out of the 12 playoff teams, 9 have 1st round QB's. Out of the 20 non playoff teams, 9 are 1st round QB's. Take that for what it's worth

And your point is? What I am reading into this is that getting a franchise QB in the 1st round and getting it right is very important. In your not going to the playoffs list, one of those has won a superbowl. One (Freeman) has taken his team from worst to relevant.

The only one on that list that really stands out to me is SF-Smith. Maybe you could make a point for Young and Palmer, but Alex heads that list.

We got it very wrong 5 years ago, and now its time to get it right.

Originally posted by Sims84:

Originally posted by Gavintech:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Let's take a quick look at the playoff teams this year, and where their QBs were drafted:

PHI - Vick (1st rounder)
CHI - Cutler (1st)
GB - Rodgers (1st)
ATL - Ryan (1st)
NO - Brees (2nd)
NE - Brady (6th)
NYJ - Sanchez (1st)
BAL - Flacco (1st)
PIT - Roethlisberger (1st)
IND - Manning (1st)
KC - Cassel (7th)

The NFC West is undecided between either Bradford (1st) or Hasselbeck (6th). Also the Giants with Manning (1st) still have a shot. So do the Bucs with Freeman (1st). But the above results speak for themselves:

11 Teams
8 First Round QBs
1 Second Rounder
1 Sixth
1 7th

QB is too important to not take in Round 1

How many teams NOT in the playoffs have 1st round QBs? That stat means nothing because the 1st round of every NFL draft is loaded with QBs (and OTs and D-linemen). It's obvious that a lot of playoff teams are going to have 1st round QBs because there are more QBs taken in the first round most years than any other round.

If there is an average of 4 QBs taken in the 1st round every year and a 1st round NFL QBs career is 10 years EVERY TEAM would have a stud 1st round QB by now. But they don't, more of them don't succeed than do.

The teams that have 1st round QB's on as their "projected starters" to start the season and are NOT going to the playoffs are :

CIN - Palmer
TEN - Young
OAK - Campbell
SD - Rivers
NYG - Manning
WAS - Mcnabb
DET - Stafford (injured most of the year though)
TB - Freeman
SF - Smith

So out of the 12 playoff teams, 9 have 1st round QB's. Out of the 20 non playoff teams, 9 are 1st round QB's. Take that for what it's worth

Good comparison. I don't count Detroit as having started a first round pick, as Stafford threw 96 passes this year to Shaun Hill's 377. Hill was undrafted.

The majority of teams making the playoffs start a 1st round QB (75%), the majority of the teams that miss the playoffs don't (60%).

[ Edited by 49erFaithful6 on Dec 28, 2010 at 16:15:54 ]

Originally posted by Blitz:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Let's take a quick look at the playoff teams this year, and where their QBs were drafted:

PHI - Vick (1st rounder)
CHI - Cutler (1st)
GB - Rodgers (1st)
ATL - Ryan (1st)
NO - Brees (2nd)
NE - Brady (6th)
NYJ - Sanchez (1st)
BAL - Flacco (1st)
PIT - Roethlisberger (1st)
IND - Manning (1st)
KC - Cassel (7th)

The NFC West is undecided between either Bradford (1st) or Hasselbeck (6th). Also the Giants with Manning (1st) still have a shot. So do the Bucs with Freeman (1st). But the above results speak for themselves:

11 Teams
8 First Round QBs
1 Second Rounder
1 Sixth
1 7th

QB is too important to not take in Round 1

Pretty hot damn compelling argument.

Look at how many teams that are not in the playoff that have 1st round QBs. Argument = suddenly not so hot damn compelling.