Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
They say, sometimes the best moves are the ones you DON'T make. The smart move would be to sit tight, grab two impact players at #13 and #17 and continue to build this team into a SB contender. To gamble again on a 1st round QB that many experts aren't completely sold on would just be repeating the Alex Smith mistake. This team is not in rebuilding mode anymore where we have 2-3 years to wait for a rookie QB to possibly develop...we're in the hunt for a division title and playoff spot THIS YEAR. We're on the cusp of returning this franchise to prominence, and people are talking about gambling with a 1st round QB?
Over the last few years, teams like Chicago, Washington, Houston and KC have been able to make upgrades to their QB position by trading for proven veterans...we can do the same if we're willing to be shrewd about it.
Question is, how shrewd is our front office? Are they really willing to go down that high draft pick rookie QB path again, given how close this team is?
You're missing the point. First, how often are the "experts" ever completely sold on a player in the draft, much less a QB? If that's going to be your criteria, then you would be waiting a long time before ever getting a franchise QB, which recent history shows you need to win a SB in today's NFL.
Second, it would not be "repeating the Alex Smith mistake." Taking a QB at 13 in the first round is a lot different than taking one at 1st overall in terms of the investment. Beyond that, as you note, this team is not rebuilding so even if Clausen had to play, he would have the support around him that Smith lacked until last year. Even more important, however, is that with Smith still here, Clausen would not have to play his first year. He could sit and watch and not get beat up physically or mentally the way Smith did. And, that does not even mention that Clausen comes in having played in an NFL style offense and having been coached by a very respected NFL OC/QB Coach as opposed to Smith coming in from Urban Meyer's spread offense where he did not have to make progressions in his reads.
Third, the 49ers would still be in the division race THIS year with Smith as the starter.
Fourth, lets look at your mentioning of Chicago, Washington, Houston and KC's trades for QBs. As has been mentioned, so far, none of those have worked out very well for the Bears, Texans and Chiefs. Schaub was not a "proven" veteran and it took him a couple of years before he had a breakout year. Cutler cost the Bears a bundle in terms of $$$ and draft picks. KC gambled on Cassel, who did not look the same without the support he had in NE and there are already rumblings questioning whether he is the long term answer. McNabb we don't know about yet but do you really want to invest a 1st or 2nd round pick in a 30+ year old QB in the last year of his contract? Really?
Okay, how close is this team? Do you want to win the NFC West or do you want to contend for championships? I'm willing to give Smith 1 more year but if you close your eyes and picture the next 49er SB championship, do you see Smith as the QB? If the answer is no, then the 49ers have to at least consider taking Clausen if they think he can be that guy.