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Nick's Final Mock Draft (Full 1st Round)

Originally posted by Kalen49ers:
Cleveland had a good young runner step up late in the season. Jerome Harrison i think. I think he showed enough to prevent them going with Spiller.

Interesting picks for the 49ers. We better be getting a OT and OG in rounds 2 and 3

They could go with Joe Haden or Earl Thomas instead. Baldinger made a pretty convincing case for Spiller to Cleveland on NFLN and I've seen a lot of other mocks on NFLN taking him -- seems like a theme.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by KRS-1:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Tebow also helps them sell a stadium.

How does Tebow help the Vikes gain a new stadium ? Everybody and there Mom knows Tebow is a project and a risk as a QB, that will not make it any easier to get a new stadium.

The argument is that Tebow is a very popular player with the fans, and is extremely active in the community. Those two factors can cause support to increase.

This argument was made in a Bleacher Report article, and it made sense to me.

If you read it on BR then it has little to no credibility. And Vikings fans are going to find it hard to rally behind a project QB again after the TJ experiment.
we trade down and draft Charles Brown, that is exactly what we do!
Originally posted by KRS-1:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by KRS-1:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Tebow also helps them sell a stadium.

How does Tebow help the Vikes gain a new stadium ? Everybody and there Mom knows Tebow is a project and a risk as a QB, that will not make it any easier to get a new stadium.

The argument is that Tebow is a very popular player with the fans, and is extremely active in the community. Those two factors can cause support to increase.

This argument was made in a Bleacher Report article, and it made sense to me.

If you read it on BR then it has little to no credibility. And Vikings fans are going to find it hard to rally behind a project QB again after the TJ experiment.

I was looking at a BR opinion piece, not a 'journalistic' piece.
Originally posted by ninerlifer:
we trade down and draft Charles Brown, that is exactly what we do!

Makes sense to me; like I said, I think we'd trade down in that scenario.

If we traded down to 22, we could still get brown.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by Kalen49ers:
Cleveland had a good young runner step up late in the season. Jerome Harrison i think. I think he showed enough to prevent them going with Spiller.

Interesting picks for the 49ers. We better be getting a OT and OG in rounds 2 and 3

They could go with Joe Haden or Earl Thomas instead. Baldinger made a pretty convincing case for Spiller to Cleveland on NFLN and I've seen a lot of other mocks on NFLN taking him -- seems like a theme.

I'm not saying it can't happen but they have a million and 1 needs, they could go anywhere
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by SF69ers:
Originally posted by joey82:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by joey82:



No offensive linemen in the first is terrible.

Thomas is not good value at 13. Do you really want a guy who struggles tackling to be our last line of defense? Thomas is solid at covering and will probably be a fine corner but I don't like spending a top 15 pick and changing his position. Until he shows better ability at tackling then putting him at FS is a liability no matter how good he may be able to cover the field.

While Dez is fine value at 17 I think you are seriously undervaluing both Brown and Iupati. Especially considering that OTs tend to be selected earlier than other positions and how big of a need we have for quality OL.

I don't know what it is Nick but you have an unhealthy mancrush on Thomas. Every single mock you do has us taking him.

Yep, I think Thomas has the best ball skills in a long, long time...better than Berry! And Mike Mayock agrees. Thomas does not have poor tackling skills, but he is not a SS, play-in-the-box guy either. He is a pure FS, a guy who can take away the deep threat. His position will not be changes to CB, he will stay at FS.

If one of the Top 4 OTs were available at 13, we would be taking one of them.

Speaking of OTs, Iupati has never played the position. Please take a look at KC's recent experience trying to convert a Guard to play OT (Branden Albert).

You also have to remember that we're drafting a RIGHT tackle here, not an LT. You can get a RT in the 2nd or 3rd round that can be very effective. So unless you plan on drafting a guy that can push Staley for his job someday (I think the Top 4 OTs can, the rest cannot), then you're better off waiting.

Disagree completely.. I don't think you are being objective at all, your mancrush is deluding you. Is Thomas a great player sure, but he doesn't have the best ball skills in a long long time either. The guys biggest weakness is tackling. He does have issues with it and a safety should not have tackling issues even if they aren't a SS they still need to support on running plays and be the last line of defense on passing plays.

Brandon Albert is going to start at Tackle for the Chiefs this year it is uncommon for any player to start as a rookie especially out of position. Remember that our first rounders aren't necessarily going to be impact players in their rookie years. Even if we have to play Iupati at guard then that is fine because Baas isn't sticking around for much longer and he could be great insurance if Rachal fails to develop.

Brown could be an excellent RT or even a future LT. I don't care if it is just a RIGHT tackle if we can't keep Smith upright we are not going to the playoffs.

I personally love the arguement that we shouldn't draft an RT in the first because you can find them later. Well guess what you can find any position later in the draft. Tom Brady was a sixth rounder so I guess no reason to ever take a QB in the first because you can get them later right?

If there is a gaping hole on your team and a guy with good value available you take him. It is simple. Considering that both Brown and Iupati would both go before 25 (if they are even there at 17) is it really that much of a reach to take them at 17?

I agree with the above post COMPLETELY. I appreciate your mocks, nick, but your mancrush on Earl Thomas really is getting a little out of hand. He is NOT better than Berry. If that was the case, then every team would have Thomas rated higher but that just isn't the case. I've watched Thomas play and he does have trouble tackling. He was basically the last line of defense playing center field which helped his interception numbers a lot. Eric Berry was able to do it playing all over the field, making picks, forcing fumbles, breaking up passes, and stopping running backs.

Also, the selection of Dez Bryant is ridiculous. I just don't see the Niners going that route. You say Kyle Wilson is a reach and I disagree. You even have him getting selected two slots after us. If the first 16 picks fell the way you mocked, the pick would have to be Wilson, Iupati, or Charles Brown. Charles Brown has the ability to play left or right tackle which makes his value and ceiling higher.

And about finding tackles later in the draft, we could definitely say the same thing about safeties. IMO, the safety class is better than the tackle class after the first round. There are so many good safeties that would be available in the 2nd or 3rd like Chad Jones, Major Wright, Morgan Burnett, and so on.

Berry is a better all-around safety, Thomas is a better free safety/center fielder type. Berry can play either position, Thomas CANNOT.

I do not think that we ARE going to take Dez Bryant; as I said, I think we would trade out of the spot if that scenario happened. If your biggest "need" is not available, you go with BPA...its that simple.

Wilson goes three picks later, but CB IS HOUSTON'S BIGGEST NEED. If CB wasn't their biggest need, they wouldn't have taken him.

If Berry is a better all-around safety, then how is it possible that Thomas is a better free safety/center fielder? Don't get me wrong, I like Thomas and I think he's very talented, but in our 3-4, he would need to play a lot more in the box and less out in center field. If that was the case, he would only be playing in nickle or dime packages.

Mike Singletary wanted Oher last year but still got an incredible talent in Crabtree. He's gonna have a huge say on who the Niners select this year, and believe me, if he had Dez, Wilson, Iupati, Brown, or even Mays on the table, I see him passing on Dez to select one of the other four. Especially since he was ecstatic about the trade for Ginn. He will do what's best for the team, and adding another receiver to the payroll just isn't smart.
Originally posted by SF69ers:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by SF69ers:
Originally posted by joey82:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by joey82:



No offensive linemen in the first is terrible.

Thomas is not good value at 13. Do you really want a guy who struggles tackling to be our last line of defense? Thomas is solid at covering and will probably be a fine corner but I don't like spending a top 15 pick and changing his position. Until he shows better ability at tackling then putting him at FS is a liability no matter how good he may be able to cover the field.

While Dez is fine value at 17 I think you are seriously undervaluing both Brown and Iupati. Especially considering that OTs tend to be selected earlier than other positions and how big of a need we have for quality OL.

I don't know what it is Nick but you have an unhealthy mancrush on Thomas. Every single mock you do has us taking him.

Yep, I think Thomas has the best ball skills in a long, long time...better than Berry! And Mike Mayock agrees. Thomas does not have poor tackling skills, but he is not a SS, play-in-the-box guy either. He is a pure FS, a guy who can take away the deep threat. His position will not be changes to CB, he will stay at FS.

If one of the Top 4 OTs were available at 13, we would be taking one of them.

Speaking of OTs, Iupati has never played the position. Please take a look at KC's recent experience trying to convert a Guard to play OT (Branden Albert).

You also have to remember that we're drafting a RIGHT tackle here, not an LT. You can get a RT in the 2nd or 3rd round that can be very effective. So unless you plan on drafting a guy that can push Staley for his job someday (I think the Top 4 OTs can, the rest cannot), then you're better off waiting.

Disagree completely.. I don't think you are being objective at all, your mancrush is deluding you. Is Thomas a great player sure, but he doesn't have the best ball skills in a long long time either. The guys biggest weakness is tackling. He does have issues with it and a safety should not have tackling issues even if they aren't a SS they still need to support on running plays and be the last line of defense on passing plays.

Brandon Albert is going to start at Tackle for the Chiefs this year it is uncommon for any player to start as a rookie especially out of position. Remember that our first rounders aren't necessarily going to be impact players in their rookie years. Even if we have to play Iupati at guard then that is fine because Baas isn't sticking around for much longer and he could be great insurance if Rachal fails to develop.

Brown could be an excellent RT or even a future LT. I don't care if it is just a RIGHT tackle if we can't keep Smith upright we are not going to the playoffs.

I personally love the arguement that we shouldn't draft an RT in the first because you can find them later. Well guess what you can find any position later in the draft. Tom Brady was a sixth rounder so I guess no reason to ever take a QB in the first because you can get them later right?

If there is a gaping hole on your team and a guy with good value available you take him. It is simple. Considering that both Brown and Iupati would both go before 25 (if they are even there at 17) is it really that much of a reach to take them at 17?

I agree with the above post COMPLETELY. I appreciate your mocks, nick, but your mancrush on Earl Thomas really is getting a little out of hand. He is NOT better than Berry. If that was the case, then every team would have Thomas rated higher but that just isn't the case. I've watched Thomas play and he does have trouble tackling. He was basically the last line of defense playing center field which helped his interception numbers a lot. Eric Berry was able to do it playing all over the field, making picks, forcing fumbles, breaking up passes, and stopping running backs.

Also, the selection of Dez Bryant is ridiculous. I just don't see the Niners going that route. You say Kyle Wilson is a reach and I disagree. You even have him getting selected two slots after us. If the first 16 picks fell the way you mocked, the pick would have to be Wilson, Iupati, or Charles Brown. Charles Brown has the ability to play left or right tackle which makes his value and ceiling higher.

And about finding tackles later in the draft, we could definitely say the same thing about safeties. IMO, the safety class is better than the tackle class after the first round. There are so many good safeties that would be available in the 2nd or 3rd like Chad Jones, Major Wright, Morgan Burnett, and so on.

Berry is a better all-around safety, Thomas is a better free safety/center fielder type. Berry can play either position, Thomas CANNOT.

I do not think that we ARE going to take Dez Bryant; as I said, I think we would trade out of the spot if that scenario happened. If your biggest "need" is not available, you go with BPA...its that simple.

Wilson goes three picks later, but CB IS HOUSTON'S BIGGEST NEED. If CB wasn't their biggest need, they wouldn't have taken him.

If Berry is a better all-around safety, then how is it possible that Thomas is a better free safety/center fielder? Don't get me wrong, I like Thomas and I think he's very talented, but in our 3-4, he would need to play a lot more in the box and less out in center field. If that was the case, he would only be playing in nickle or dime packages.

Mike Singletary wanted Oher last year but still got an incredible talent in Crabtree. He's gonna have a huge say on who the Niners select this year, and believe me, if he had Dez, Wilson, Iupati, Brown, or even Mays on the table, I see him passing on Dez to select one of the other four. Especially since he was ecstatic about the trade for Ginn. He will do what's best for the team, and adding another receiver to the payroll just isn't smart.

Because Berry can play strong safety, while Thomas cannot. In other words, Berry is much better than Thomas vs. the run, while Thomas is somewhat better than Berry vs. the pass.

How often does the FS get in the box? How often do we have 9-man fronts?
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by SF69ers:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by SF69ers:
Originally posted by joey82:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by joey82:



No offensive linemen in the first is terrible.

Thomas is not good value at 13. Do you really want a guy who struggles tackling to be our last line of defense? Thomas is solid at covering and will probably be a fine corner but I don't like spending a top 15 pick and changing his position. Until he shows better ability at tackling then putting him at FS is a liability no matter how good he may be able to cover the field.

While Dez is fine value at 17 I think you are seriously undervaluing both Brown and Iupati. Especially considering that OTs tend to be selected earlier than other positions and how big of a need we have for quality OL.

I don't know what it is Nick but you have an unhealthy mancrush on Thomas. Every single mock you do has us taking him.

Yep, I think Thomas has the best ball skills in a long, long time...better than Berry! And Mike Mayock agrees. Thomas does not have poor tackling skills, but he is not a SS, play-in-the-box guy either. He is a pure FS, a guy who can take away the deep threat. His position will not be changes to CB, he will stay at FS.

If one of the Top 4 OTs were available at 13, we would be taking one of them.

Speaking of OTs, Iupati has never played the position. Please take a look at KC's recent experience trying to convert a Guard to play OT (Branden Albert).

You also have to remember that we're drafting a RIGHT tackle here, not an LT. You can get a RT in the 2nd or 3rd round that can be very effective. So unless you plan on drafting a guy that can push Staley for his job someday (I think the Top 4 OTs can, the rest cannot), then you're better off waiting.

Disagree completely.. I don't think you are being objective at all, your mancrush is deluding you. Is Thomas a great player sure, but he doesn't have the best ball skills in a long long time either. The guys biggest weakness is tackling. He does have issues with it and a safety should not have tackling issues even if they aren't a SS they still need to support on running plays and be the last line of defense on passing plays.

Brandon Albert is going to start at Tackle for the Chiefs this year it is uncommon for any player to start as a rookie especially out of position. Remember that our first rounders aren't necessarily going to be impact players in their rookie years. Even if we have to play Iupati at guard then that is fine because Baas isn't sticking around for much longer and he could be great insurance if Rachal fails to develop.

Brown could be an excellent RT or even a future LT. I don't care if it is just a RIGHT tackle if we can't keep Smith upright we are not going to the playoffs.

I personally love the arguement that we shouldn't draft an RT in the first because you can find them later. Well guess what you can find any position later in the draft. Tom Brady was a sixth rounder so I guess no reason to ever take a QB in the first because you can get them later right?

If there is a gaping hole on your team and a guy with good value available you take him. It is simple. Considering that both Brown and Iupati would both go before 25 (if they are even there at 17) is it really that much of a reach to take them at 17?

I agree with the above post COMPLETELY. I appreciate your mocks, nick, but your mancrush on Earl Thomas really is getting a little out of hand. He is NOT better than Berry. If that was the case, then every team would have Thomas rated higher but that just isn't the case. I've watched Thomas play and he does have trouble tackling. He was basically the last line of defense playing center field which helped his interception numbers a lot. Eric Berry was able to do it playing all over the field, making picks, forcing fumbles, breaking up passes, and stopping running backs.

Also, the selection of Dez Bryant is ridiculous. I just don't see the Niners going that route. You say Kyle Wilson is a reach and I disagree. You even have him getting selected two slots after us. If the first 16 picks fell the way you mocked, the pick would have to be Wilson, Iupati, or Charles Brown. Charles Brown has the ability to play left or right tackle which makes his value and ceiling higher.

And about finding tackles later in the draft, we could definitely say the same thing about safeties. IMO, the safety class is better than the tackle class after the first round. There are so many good safeties that would be available in the 2nd or 3rd like Chad Jones, Major Wright, Morgan Burnett, and so on.

Berry is a better all-around safety, Thomas is a better free safety/center fielder type. Berry can play either position, Thomas CANNOT.

I do not think that we ARE going to take Dez Bryant; as I said, I think we would trade out of the spot if that scenario happened. If your biggest "need" is not available, you go with BPA...its that simple.

Wilson goes three picks later, but CB IS HOUSTON'S BIGGEST NEED. If CB wasn't their biggest need, they wouldn't have taken him.

If Berry is a better all-around safety, then how is it possible that Thomas is a better free safety/center fielder? Don't get me wrong, I like Thomas and I think he's very talented, but in our 3-4, he would need to play a lot more in the box and less out in center field. If that was the case, he would only be playing in nickle or dime packages.

Mike Singletary wanted Oher last year but still got an incredible talent in Crabtree. He's gonna have a huge say on who the Niners select this year, and believe me, if he had Dez, Wilson, Iupati, Brown, or even Mays on the table, I see him passing on Dez to select one of the other four. Especially since he was ecstatic about the trade for Ginn. He will do what's best for the team, and adding another receiver to the payroll just isn't smart.

Because Berry can play strong safety, while Thomas cannot. In other words, Berry is much better than Thomas vs. the run, while Thomas is somewhat better than Berry vs. the pass.

How often does the FS get in the box? How often do we have 9-man fronts?

We don't, but our FS plays very aggressive against the run, just not as close as our SS. That's where I think Earl Thomas may not fit us because offensive linemen will just push him out of the way because he isn't as aggressive against the run.
Quote:
Other interesting items from my mock: Tebow goes to MIN at #30, Brandon Graham slips out of the first round because nobody knows exactly where he'll fit (and his similarities to Groves and other busts), and Nate Allen makes it into the 1st round.

I'll give you two out of three on your interesting items. I think the Tebow to MIN idea is very possible and Nate Allen has the skill set to be a first round pick.

However, I think you are way off on Brandon Graham. He could fit as a 3-4 OLB like his old teammate Woodley and definitely be a 4-3 DE. He could go anywhere from #10 at Jacksonville who made the mistake on Graves and he definitely would not make it past the Packers at #23 who are looking for a booked to Matthews.
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Quote:
Other interesting items from my mock: Tebow goes to MIN at #30, Brandon Graham slips out of the first round because nobody knows exactly where he'll fit (and his similarities to Groves and other busts), and Nate Allen makes it into the 1st round.

I'll give you two out of three on your interesting items. I think the Tebow to MIN idea is very possible and Nate Allen has the skill set to be a first round pick.

However, I think you are way off on Brandon Graham. He could fit as a 3-4 OLB like his old teammate Woodley and definitely be a 4-3 DE. He could go anywhere from #10 at Jacksonville who made the mistake on Graves and he definitely would not make it past the Packers at #23 who are looking for a booked to Matthews.

There are concerns about his ability to switch to a 3-4. WalterFootball's report on him mentioned it. I agree that the Packers are a possible fit, but they need an OT so bad they they'll have to take one.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Quote:
Other interesting items from my mock: Tebow goes to MIN at #30, Brandon Graham slips out of the first round because nobody knows exactly where he'll fit (and his similarities to Groves and other busts), and Nate Allen makes it into the 1st round.

I'll give you two out of three on your interesting items. I think the Tebow to MIN idea is very possible and Nate Allen has the skill set to be a first round pick.

However, I think you are way off on Brandon Graham. He could fit as a 3-4 OLB like his old teammate Woodley and definitely be a 4-3 DE. He could go anywhere from #10 at Jacksonville who made the mistake on Graves and he definitely would not make it past the Packers at #23 who are looking for a booked to Matthews.

There are concerns about his ability to switch to a 3-4. WalterFootball's report on him mentioned it. I agree that the Packers are a possible fit, but they need an OT so bad they they'll have to take one.

That is one person's opinion, not fact. His game tape and the Senior Bowl week/game show him dominating on the edge as a pass rusher and against the run. Even if the 3-4 teams pass on him, A bunch of 4-3 teams (the Seahawks, Giants, Titans, Falcons and Eagles) are all looking for front seven help. I just don't see him making it past the mid 20's IMO.
I still can't get over the fact that you honestly believe Thomas is the best ball hawking safety since Ed Reed.

Think of all the great safeties that have been drafted in the last few years. Sean Taylor, Landry, Merriweather, Polamalu, Griffin etc. and you think Thomas who isn't even the best S in this years class is a better ball hawk than all of them?

Wow talk about falling in love with a player.
I do agree with your BPA philosophy, and it is especially true for the first round; later rounds, not so much. If there is a huge disparity in the value you assign a player, you either work a trade or pick the value. Short sightedness is a sure way of killing your team. You build for the ages not for tomorrow.

So if Bryant is the clear value pick, you just swallow and make the pick.

So it really comes down to how the Niners value the various players. Any argument re selection only has merit IF one is basing it off what is the relative VALUE of the alternative picks. IMO one has it all wrong if you simply say: "The Niners simply HAVE to pick an OT". That is true only if he represents the correct VALUE at that pick.

Now we don't really know how the Niners have valued the various players, so its all guesswork, but I'll wade in.

I agree with the posters who are not buying into Earl Thomas. I know Maycock thinks that he is so great. But other analysts (Casserly among them) point to his weaknesses. I'm guessing that his flaws decreases his value for the Niners, especially as they have a pretty good player occupying that position on the roster (yes, that does factor into assigning value on the Niners board). Earl is too small and he does not like to tackle . . . a fatal flaw. In fact, I'm guessing, but the Niners may feel that Mays has greater value to them (and I don't even like Mays as a selection) in their scheme.

OTOH Kyle Wilson could represent a higher value for the Niners. It's an area of critical NEED: Cornerback. Wislon is fast and has good size. Yews, He also doesn't like to tackle, but its not a fatal flaw in a CB and can be coached, as some posters have pointed out. I see him easily being a first round possibility.

Also, I would not be so dismissive of Brown either. As we approach the draft his stock seems to be rising fast. Some analysts are even projecting him to be the surest pick with the highest upside . . . no personal issues, high work ethic . . . a sure-fire starter at LT, who could probably be coached to play either side. He is a converted TE, which means that he is athletic . . . we've had luck with a converted TE before . . . and Solari comes from the school preferring more nimble, athletic offensive linemen. So I see him easily being a first round possibility also.

Iupati gets great press. But he is an interior lineman. He will be devalued for that reason alone. People rag on Baas, but his play was superior to Rachal's last year. Also we have adequate back-up for the interior line. I would be surprised if Iupati is the pick at #13 or #17. Although for sentimental reasons I would like him for his Samoan connections.
I know Thomas is a good player...but, I can't see Singletary taking a S/wannabe CB that early. If Haden's on the board, different story...CB is a much more critical position for us, given Clements may be going into his last season. Agree, Coach won't leave the 1st rd w/o an OT...especially after missing out on Oher because Crabtree fell to him last year. If haden's gone, then I'd fall back to taking two of the big fellas...Davis and Iupati or Pouncey. Our offense will get to the next level a lot quicker IF we seriously upgrade the OL.