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Need or BPA? Scot McCloughan's draft philosophy

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Scot doesn't take BPA unless it's obvious.

Most of the time he has "players he likes" and reaches for them in instances where he's afraid they might not last to our next pick, despite them NOT being the BPA.

This is how Scot consistently works. And it disgusts me.

Yes,
#1. He is not very good at judging BPA, because he overvalues measurables over performance, and only considers BPA when they fit his mold of big players

#2. He is bad at 'value':
McC over-values and hence over-drafts players that he falls in love with. At the time of their selections I thought that these guys were clearly drafted higher than their 'value' (ie. they were clearly over-drafted):
D1 Alex Smith, D2 David Baas, D3 Brandon Williams, high D4 Mike Robinson, high D4 Jay Moore, high D2 Chilo Rachal, high D4 Cody Wallace,
These guys were all obviously over-drafted, so it seems that McC does NOT draft BPA, rather he drafts 'player he fell in love with'. Most of these picks (not Smith or Baas) would have been still available one round later than Scot picked them in. So he could have traded down and still drafted most of these guys.

[ Edited by maxsmart on Jan 17, 2010 at 18:29:15 ]
Originally posted by PA9erFaithful:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by dhp318:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Spiller

McCloughan wouldn't pick him in the 1st round unless he thought Spiller could be an every down back.

BPA, he will grade out very high and in the mid teens he will be BPA

Scouts Inc
10. C.J. Spiller RB Clemson 95

Kiper 25 board
14. Spiller

Draft Scout
#5 Senior

He's the number 1 rated RB this year and he's a RETURN guy.

But there's no guarantee that he'll be BPA on the Niners draft board. NFL teams don't work off of ESPN or other websites, they do their own scouting, they make up their own boards.

People...please spit out Spiller's jock strap and read what this man wrote.
  • smileyman
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Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Scot doesn't take BPA unless it's obvious.

Most of the time he has "players he likes" and reaches for them in instances where he's afraid they might not last to our next pick, despite them NOT being the BPA.

This is how Scot consistently works. And it disgusts me.

2009 Draft

1st round--Michael Crabtree. Definitely BPA and not a reach at all
3rd round--Glen Coffee. Before the draft he was projected all over the map, anywhere from 3rd to 5th. Personally I think the 3rd was a reach but not a huge one.
5th round--Nate Davis. This was right where he was slotted at pre-draft.
6th round--Bear Pascoe. Another pick going right where he was slotted pre-draft.
7th round--Ricky Jean-Francois. Jean-Francois was slotted as a 4th to 5th rounder. At the 7th round he's a steal.

The only person who could be considered a reach here is Coffee and he's not that big a reach.


2008 draft
1st round--Kentwan Balmer. He was projected as a late 1st round, early 2nd round selection. At pick 29 that's exactly where he went.
2nd round--Chilo Rachal. Rachal was rated the 2nd or 3rd best guard in the 2008 draft and a 2nd round prospect on most boards.
3rd round--Reggie Smith. Smith was projected as a 1st rounder before his foot injury, and even after that he was projected as a 2nd rounder. Getting him in the 3rd was a steal.
4th round--Cody Wallace. This is right where Wallace was projected to go pre-draft.
6th round--Josh Morgan. Morgan was projected anywhere from 5th to 7th.
7th round--Larry Grant. For a 7th round pick this isn't a bad choice.


These are the only two drafts where Scot McCloughan was GM, and the only reach I see here is Coffee and he's not all that much of a reach. I'm not seeing where you think he always reaches for players he likes instead of going BPA.
After this year......you have to give McCloughan some due as a judge of talent.

Vernon Davis finally has blossomed into the dominating player that he can be. Highest drafted TE ever.....but who else has 4.38 speed.
Michael Crabtree....yes I was pissed when he held out but once he signed the guy started every game. GREAT PICK that fell to us as BPA.
Dashon Goldson.....we have a presence at Free Safety now. Not worried about this position at all and we could move him to Strong Safety if we need to. The guy is a playmaker. 4th round pick.
Patrick Willis - I don't even have to say anything here....might be the best defensive player in the league. 10 teams passed on him.
Justin Smith - COWBOY IS A STUD. Great signing by Scot.
Ahmad Brooks - Found him off the scrap pile....he is looking really good.....want to see him unleashed.
Alex Smith - You can say what you want to say, but he has gone through a lot. Five offensive Coordinators.....no talent on the team.....arm problems and his coach calling him out. He stepped up this year.
Frank Gore - 3rd round pick.....the offensive engine of the niners. Now he is even faster. Great Heart and great player.
Aubrayo Franklin - Patrick Willis calls him the best Nose Tackle in the game.....great pick up.

YES.....He has missed on players.....most notable is Desean Jackson (but a lot of teams missed on Desean.)

He likes bigger players especially on the offensive line.
He likes players that produce vs a great 40 time (Vernon is an exception)
He also likes potential or raw players that can be coached but which can get him into trouble like Rasheed Marshall or even Michael Robinson.
He has focused on our offensive line but he hasn't had the best results

Larry Allen - Stud but past his prime
Rachal - Too early to count out, the guy has the tools to be a good player but he's very young.
David Baas - Hurt himself as a rookie when he got hurt......so he fell way behind. Also they were moving him around to guard and also trying to learn center. (Center might be the best place for him.) This year after a very slow beginning of the year (he was hurt)....he was looking like one of our best lineman. His pulls for Gore really made the running game work. I hope we keep him.
Jonas Jennings - HE KILLED THE NINERS......Guy was made of glass but when healthy he was fantastic.
Synder seems like a great back up.

So Scot tried to do the right thing and build the team the right way but he hasn't been so lucky.

BPA is very important. Look at Terry Donahues draft record (Mike Rumph, Anthony Adams, Rashaun Woods, even Shauntae Spencer was a reach but he turned out to be good player but probably could have been had in the 3rd round or later. The guy was reaching on players and filling holes. This kind of strategy sets you back years!!!!

If you don't take BPA you will lose out on the talent available. Teams like the Baltimore, Eagles, Colts, even Arizona......do a great job of drafting and taking guys that are the BPA and not reach a miss a player.

Also BPA is what got Scot the extra 1st round pick this year which was a genius move. He did that specifically because he couldn't get a player he wanted in the draft at that pick that he liked. Carolina had one of the toughest schedules in the league so he knew we were going to get a good pick. Too bad they couldn't have lost another game because WE WOULD HAVE BACK TO BACK PICKS.

People quickly forget HOW BAD our team was when Nolan and Company took over.

We finally have a solid team that we are only missing a few of the pieces.

The Team has character......this is really important because a team with character is always looking to get better and not SELF DESTRUCT.

This will be an interesting draft.....probably the most important draft of McCloughans career and the 49ers future. If we do it right.....NEXT YEAR PLAYOFFS GUARANTEED.

We really need an offensive tackle and thank god there are plenty of them this year, but if all of the 1st round talents are gone. Scot will go BPA.

We need another game changer.... I would love to see which Spiller, Best, Mays, Earl Thomas are rated on the board. But if Mike Lupati is BPA.....watch scott pull the trigger. The line needs to be solid. All of the teams in the playoffs have great OLines.

At the end of the day

We will shore up the OL (Probably OT and even Guard)
We will take a Kick Returner that can play RB, Be a slot Receiver and be a deep threat if he can get them in one player.....this player can be had later in the draft unless Best falls to them in the 2nd round.
We will take a Inside Linebacker - (with 1b, 2 or 3) that is a playmaker.
We will take a safety or CB - probably both, if Haden Falls at 13 it might be tough to pass.

The Niners are good enough yet to not take close to BPA, but will be flexible enough in the draft to allow the best players to fall to them and not reach.
Originally posted by jreff22:
Spiller

If he's available...then YES!!! We can go OT with our 2nd 1st rounder.
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by PA9erFaithful:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by dhp318:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Spiller

McCloughan wouldn't pick him in the 1st round unless he thought Spiller could be an every down back.

BPA, he will grade out very high and in the mid teens he will be BPA

Scouts Inc
10. C.J. Spiller RB Clemson 95

Kiper 25 board
14. Spiller

Draft Scout
#5 Senior

He's the number 1 rated RB this year and he's a RETURN guy.

But there's no guarantee that he'll be BPA on the Niners draft board. NFL teams don't work off of ESPN or other websites, they do their own scouting, they make up their own boards.

People...please spit out Spiller's jock strap and read what this man wrote.

Same draft board that had A. Smith as the best QB available in 05'. Same one that had David Baas as the best lineman available in 05'. And the very same board that drafted Kentwan Balmer to be a difference maker on the D-line!

Need I say more on the 49ers draft success? My point is that Spiller is a special player. The kind that can be a difference maker in todays NFL. Speed kills, and Spiller has a lot of it!
Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
I get the BPA thing, and I'm sure it's the right way to go most of the time.

But if you have the same needs every goddamn draft and you keep ignoring them because of your philosophy, and then continue losing games because of those unaddressed needs, then you need to change your philosophy.

Agreed.
Originally posted by smileyman:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Scot doesn't take BPA unless it's obvious.

Most of the time he has "players he likes" and reaches for them in instances where he's afraid they might not last to our next pick, despite them NOT being the BPA.

This is how Scot consistently works. And it disgusts me.

2009 Draft

1st round--Michael Crabtree. Definitely BPA and not a reach at all
3rd round--Glen Coffee. Before the draft he was projected all over the map, anywhere from 3rd to 5th. Personally I think the 3rd was a reach but not a huge one.
5th round--Nate Davis. This was right where he was slotted at pre-draft.
6th round--Bear Pascoe. Another pick going right where he was slotted pre-draft.
7th round--Ricky Jean-Francois. Jean-Francois was slotted as a 4th to 5th rounder. At the 7th round he's a steal.

The only person who could be considered a reach here is Coffee and he's not that big a reach.


2008 draft
1st round--Kentwan Balmer. He was projected as a late 1st round, early 2nd round selection. At pick 29 that's exactly where he went.
2nd round--Chilo Rachal. Rachal was rated the 2nd or 3rd best guard in the 2008 draft and a 2nd round prospect on most boards.
3rd round--Reggie Smith. Smith was projected as a 1st rounder before his foot injury, and even after that he was projected as a 2nd rounder. Getting him in the 3rd was a steal.
4th round--Cody Wallace. This is right where Wallace was projected to go pre-draft.
6th round--Josh Morgan. Morgan was projected anywhere from 5th to 7th.
7th round--Larry Grant. For a 7th round pick this isn't a bad choice.


These are the only two drafts where Scot McCloughan was GM, and the only reach I see here is Coffee and he's not all that much of a reach. I'm not seeing where you think he always reaches for players he likes instead of going BPA.

From my understanding, Scot took over the drafting in 2008? I do not get why so many people bash the guy. He got a starter out of Josh Morgan in the 6th, which is rare? Cody Wallace may make the team one day. Crabtree is a given, and every seems content that Balmer and Rachal are continuing to improve...

Crabtree was a given, as any team without a true #1 WR would have taken him at 10. He also got us two first round picks in a draft rich with OL. While I think we go with OL with 13, and something else with 17, we stil have them available.

I actually would not be suprised to see McC trade down the second first rounder to get picks for next year, and then get a steal at the end of the first...
Originally posted by SJniner7:
Originally posted by smileyman:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Scot doesn't take BPA unless it's obvious.

Most of the time he has "players he likes" and reaches for them in instances where he's afraid they might not last to our next pick, despite them NOT being the BPA.

This is how Scot consistently works. And it disgusts me.

2009 Draft

1st round--Michael Crabtree. Definitely BPA and not a reach at all
3rd round--Glen Coffee. Before the draft he was projected all over the map, anywhere from 3rd to 5th. Personally I think the 3rd was a reach but not a huge one.
5th round--Nate Davis. This was right where he was slotted at pre-draft.
6th round--Bear Pascoe. Another pick going right where he was slotted pre-draft.
7th round--Ricky Jean-Francois. Jean-Francois was slotted as a 4th to 5th rounder. At the 7th round he's a steal.

The only person who could be considered a reach here is Coffee and he's not that big a reach.


2008 draft
1st round--Kentwan Balmer. He was projected as a late 1st round, early 2nd round selection. At pick 29 that's exactly where he went.
2nd round--Chilo Rachal. Rachal was rated the 2nd or 3rd best guard in the 2008 draft and a 2nd round prospect on most boards.
3rd round--Reggie Smith. Smith was projected as a 1st rounder before his foot injury, and even after that he was projected as a 2nd rounder. Getting him in the 3rd was a steal.
4th round--Cody Wallace. This is right where Wallace was projected to go pre-draft.
6th round--Josh Morgan. Morgan was projected anywhere from 5th to 7th.
7th round--Larry Grant. For a 7th round pick this isn't a bad choice.


These are the only two drafts where Scot McCloughan was GM, and the only reach I see here is Coffee and he's not all that much of a reach. I'm not seeing where you think he always reaches for players he likes instead of going BPA.

From my understanding, Scot took over the drafting in 2008? I do not get why so many people bash the guy. He got a starter out of Josh Morgan in the 6th, which is rare? Cody Wallace may make the team one day. Crabtree is a given, and every seems content that Balmer and Rachal are continuing to improve...

Crabtree was a given, as any team without a true #1 WR would have taken him at 10. He also got us two first round picks in a draft rich with OL. While I think we go with OL with 13, and something else with 17, we stil have them available.

I actually would not be suprised to see McC trade down the second first rounder to get picks for next year, and then get a steal at the end of the first...

I'm beginning to think we should trade back with the 2nd first rounder & pick up extra picks in the draft.
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Originally posted by doc_brown_:

Same draft board that had A. Smith as the best QB available in 05'. Same one that had David Baas as the best lineman available in 05'. And the very same board that drafted Kentwan Balmer to be a difference maker on the D-line!

Need I say more on the 49ers draft success? My point is that Spiller is a special player. The kind that can be a difference maker in todays NFL. Speed kills, and Spiller has a lot of it!

It's been documented that we wanted Mankins not Baas in 2005.
Scotty contradicted his whole "BPA" argument with the Favre example. I think he is just making it publicly known that he is a BPA guy as a strategy against other teams. Smart move. You don't want to show your cards on draft day. Its possible to draft a player in the second round which you would have been able to get in the 3rd round as well if you knew what other GMs were looking for.

I think its a combination of BPA and need. Look at the Willis Selection. He was a BPA selection. We needed a Linemen at the time (J.Smith type player). If we settled with a need position we would have taken Carriker and missed out on Willis. Crabtree was also a BPA selection. Even though we did need a WR, scotty is not known for drafting WRs high, unless the guy was super talented of course.

Now look at the A. Smith selection. We NEEDED a QB and took the best QB we thought was available. Glenn Coffee anyone? We needed a running back to backup Gore in this new smash mouth offense so we go with a RB...which was a NEED.

So I think Scotty balances it out.

When you are stacked at a position why keep drafting the same position? That's the wrong way to draft. Look at the Lions. They took the BPA 4 years in a row...unfortunatley they were all WR's. This is who the Lions took and who they could have taken:

2003: Charles Rogers over: Andre Johnson, Newman, Kevin Williams, Suggs, Trufant, Polamalu

2004: Roy Williams over Big Ben, J. Vilma, Tommie Harris, Shawn Andrews, Will Smith, Wilfork

2005: Mike Williams over Merriman, D.Ware, Jamaal Brown, Aaron Rodgers

2006: Calvin Johnson over Joe Thomas, A. Peterson, P. Willis, Darrel Revis....

That is what happens when you go BPA only instead of need players. You have to balance it out.

Good job Scotty.
  • smileyman
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Originally posted by Young2Rice:

When you are stacked at a position why keep drafting the same position? That's the wrong way to draft. Look at the Lions. They took the BPA 4 years in a row...unfortunatley they were all WR's. This is who the Lions took and who they could have taken:

2003: Charles Rogers over: Andre Johnson, Newman, Kevin Williams, Suggs, Trufant, Polamalu

2004: Roy Williams over Big Ben, J. Vilma, Tommie Harris, Shawn Andrews, Will Smith, Wilfork

2005: Mike Williams over Merriman, D.Ware, Jamaal Brown, Aaron Rodgers

2006: Calvin Johnson over Joe Thomas, A. Peterson, P. Willis, Darrel Revis....

That is what happens when you go BPA only instead of need players. You have to balance it out.

Good job Scotty.


If you look at the Patriots, their draft philosophy is best for their system. It's why they consistently trade back their first round picks to acquire extra picks in the second round. In the second round they can find role players who they can slot in. Of course when your team has no offensive philosophy, it's hard to do that.
If you study the Patriot's roster, you will notice that they sign a number of free agents, often not big name guys. But they are solid players that fill holes. Until this year, NE seemed to be a well-coached team that won with a solid lineup that rarely made game-losing mistakes, with a QB that could win a game for them at the end, if needed. But their drafts, frankly, are not so wonderful.
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I hope for Scot McCloughan's sake that Spiller is off the board by 13 (and if he is not that he is gone before 16/17) because there will be a lot of backlash from Spiller's fanboy's that we passed on him. They will find it hard to believe that he was not the BPA on our board or that we drafted a greater need pick in his place. Everyone seems to think he is a lock to go in the top 20, however everyone sees things differently and has their own opinions and the 49ers draft board may not look anything close to the way you see it.
Originally posted by Yetiman:
We may need offensive linemen and a kick returner, but...

Story by Steve Wyche at NFL.com, April 2009

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d80fe53bf

"It's best player," said 49ers general manager Scot McCloughan. "It's cliché, but it's the best player. Now, when I was with Green Bay, we had Brett Favre. We would never take a quarterback in the first round with Brett Favre in his prime. But 99 percent of the time, if you take the best player available you'll get the best bang for the buck for the long haul. There are 32 teams and not everybody has a roster they think is that good. You never have enough good football players."

"You have your philosophy and you have to stick with it," McCloughan said. "If you change year-in-and-year out, you're not building your organization the best way. Successful or not, you stick to the vision and add good young talent every year. That's why the draft is so important to building a consistent team."


i agree you always take BPA if its reasonable, i mean would you take trent williams if dez bryant eric berry and joe hadden are still on the board, NO you would not. Value of the pick is more important.