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2009 Strategy...Drafting Tight Ends

Hey guys, my fantasy draft is tomorrow and I found out there will be a WR/TE flex position in my league this year, so I was thinking instead of trying to focus on getting big receiver, I should target the top tight ends. I had Tony Gonzalez last year under a pretty lousy KC team, and he still put up big numbers. Under Matt Ryan, I have a feeling he's going to blow up. I've got the 7th pick in the 1st, then 6th in the 2nd, 7th in the 3rd, and so on.

I was thinking I'd do something like this:

1: Frank Gore, Larry Fitzgerald
2: RB2 / Tom Brady / Randy Moss
3: Aaron Rodgers
4: Jason Witten
5: Tony Gonzalez
6: Pittsburgh DEF

When is the earliest you would take a tight end? I feel like owning Witten and Gonzalez would be a good 22-30 points a week you could count on where anyone less in that spot would only be good for about 2-8 points each.

Another scenario could be if I got Fitzgerald and Moss in round 1 and 2, then Witten
and Gonzalez in 4 and 5. That would be a pretty high scoring team, but weak at the running back position.

I probably have to take a RB with the 1st or 2nd round. I really got a lot of mileage out of DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal with late round picks last year. I had Gore and Forte, which worked out really well. I have a feeling that Darren McFadden could be a good mid round pick. Aaron Rodgers could also be very good.
[ Edited by Psinex on Aug 22, 2009 at 1:40 PM ]
  • crzy
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 39,284
Is it PPR?

Quote:
I feel like owning Witten and Gonzalez would be a good 22-30 points a week you could count on

Really? What exactly is your league's scoring system?
Originally posted by crzy:
Is it PPR?

Quote:
I feel like owning Witten and Gonzalez would be a good 22-30 points a week you could count on

Really? What exactly is your league's scoring system?

What is PPR?

Here's a summary of the scoring system:

Max Teams: 12
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Roster: QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN
Passing Yards 25 yards per point; 2 points at 300 yards
Passing Touchdowns 6
Interceptions -2
Rushing Yards 10 yards per point; 2 points at 100 yards
Rushing Touchdowns 6
Receptions .5
Reception Yards 10 yards per point; 2 points at 100 yards
Reception Touchdowns 6
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,956
I use to hold off on TE's until after my starters were set and i had a 3rd RB.


Your theory of taking Witt4en and Gonzo in the 3rd-5th rounds.

Lets compare projections.


Tony Gonzalez ATL 4 79 885 8 136.5
Jason Witten DAL 6 75 876 6 123.6


WR's that could be had AFTER the 5th round.


Santonio Holmes PIT 8 66 979 7 139.9
Chad Ochocinco CIN 8 72 1,029 6 138.9
DeSean Jackson PHI 4 73 967 7 138.7
Domenik Hixon NYG 10 80 962 7 138.2
Antonio Bryant TB 8 74 995 6 135.5
Santana Moss WAS 8 67 977 6 133.7
Hines Ward PIT 8 80 915 7 133.5
Brandon Marshall DEN 7 70 966 6 132.6
Braylon Edwards CLE 9 69 966 6 132.6
Anthony Gonzalez IND 6 65 945 6 130.5
Bernard Berrian MIN 9 63 936 6 129.6


You would be better served taking RB's in the spots you planned on targeting Witten and Gonzo.




Also for you and everyone else who wants help or wants people to rate my team.


POST THE LEAGUE SETUP
HOW MANY TEAMS
PPR?
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,956
Originally posted by Psinex:
Originally posted by crzy:
Is it PPR?

Quote:
I feel like owning Witten and Gonzalez would be a good 22-30 points a week you could count on

Really? What exactly is your league's scoring system?

What is PPR?

Here's a summary of the scoring system:

Max Teams: 12
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Roster: QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN
Passing Yards 25 yards per point; 2 points at 300 yards
Passing Touchdowns 6
Interceptions -2
Rushing Yards 10 yards per point; 2 points at 100 yards
Rushing Touchdowns 6
Receptions .5
Reception Yards 10 yards per point; 2 points at 100 yards
Reception Touchdowns 6

ppr = point per reception or this
Quote:
Receptions .5
  • crzy
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 39,284
Originally posted by Psinex:
Receptions .5
Reception Yards 10 yards per point; 2 points at 100 yards
Reception Touchdowns 6

Um, that's not going to give you 22 points per week from your TE.

Gonzalez averaged 6 catches, 66 yards, and 0.625 TD's per week last year.

In your league's scoring system that is only 13.35 points per week from Tony Gonalez.
  • crzy
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 39,284
In a 1/2 PPR league like yours I would hold off drafting a TE until round 6 or 7, maybe even later if I thought I could get Dustin Keller later.

Even the top TE's usually only put up stats that equal the 15th-20th best receiver.
Originally posted by crzy:
Originally posted by Psinex:
Receptions .5
Reception Yards 10 yards per point; 2 points at 100 yards
Reception Touchdowns 6

Um, that's not going to give you 22 points per week from your TE.

Gonzalez averaged 6 catches, 66 yards, and 0.625 TD's per week last year.

In your league's scoring system that is only 13.35 points per week from Tony Gonalez.

Thanks for the breakdown of the receivers versus TE's, Krizay. Helps put things into perspective somewhat.

What I meant was getting a combined 20-28 points from the TE and Flex spot. My reasoning is this...in a draft where I'm not going to pick until 7th and 6th in each alternating round, a lot of the guys I want could be taken. So if I target Witten and Gonzo in the 4th-6th rounds, I can get receiver quality numbers from a spot where the other 11 teams might not be looking until I've already got them. Witten will go fast because it's a Cowboys fans-heavy league.

It's probably better that I target Gonzo and someone else...like Vernon in the 8th or something. I have a good feeling about him this year under Jimmy Raye.
  • crzy
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 39,284
Originally posted by krizay:

Santonio Holmes PIT 8 66 979 7 139.9
Chad Ochocinco CIN 8 72 1,029 6 138.9
DeSean Jackson PHI 4 73 967 7 138.7
Domenik Hixon NYG 10 80 962 7 138.2
Antonio Bryant TB 8 74 995 6 135.5
Santana Moss WAS 8 67 977 6 133.7
Hines Ward PIT 8 80 915 7 133.5
Brandon Marshall DEN 7 70 966 6 132.6
Braylon Edwards CLE 9 69 966 6 132.6
Anthony Gonzalez IND 6 65 945 6 130.5
Bernard Berrian MIN 9 63 936 6 129.6


Did you come up with those projections.

Because Domenik Hixon looks very very out of place on that list.
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,956
Originally posted by crzy:
Originally posted by krizay:

Santonio Holmes PIT 8 66 979 7 139.9
Chad Ochocinco CIN 8 72 1,029 6 138.9
DeSean Jackson PHI 4 73 967 7 138.7
Domenik Hixon NYG 10 80 962 7 138.2
Antonio Bryant TB 8 74 995 6 135.5
Santana Moss WAS 8 67 977 6 133.7
Hines Ward PIT 8 80 915 7 133.5
Brandon Marshall DEN 7 70 966 6 132.6
Braylon Edwards CLE 9 69 966 6 132.6
Anthony Gonzalez IND 6 65 945 6 130.5
Bernard Berrian MIN 9 63 936 6 129.6


Did you come up with those projections.

Because Domenik Hixon looks very very out of place on that list.




FFtoday's projections. Didn't look at the list. Just copied the guys with similar projected numberes of gonzo and witten
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by crzy:
Originally posted by krizay:

Santonio Holmes PIT 8 66 979 7 139.9
Chad Ochocinco CIN 8 72 1,029 6 138.9
DeSean Jackson PHI 4 73 967 7 138.7
Domenik Hixon NYG 10 80 962 7 138.2
Antonio Bryant TB 8 74 995 6 135.5
Santana Moss WAS 8 67 977 6 133.7
Hines Ward PIT 8 80 915 7 133.5
Brandon Marshall DEN 7 70 966 6 132.6
Braylon Edwards CLE 9 69 966 6 132.6
Anthony Gonzalez IND 6 65 945 6 130.5
Bernard Berrian MIN 9 63 936 6 129.6


Did you come up with those projections.

Because Domenik Hixon looks very very out of place on that list.



FFtoday's projections. Didn't look at the list. Just copied the guys with similar projected numberes of gonzo and witten

OH, I thought those were numbers from last year. Gonzo had almost 200 more yards than the projection. Now I feel like I definitely have to draft Gonzo in the 4th or 5th round. If he had over 1000 yards with Kansas City's QB's, he's going to have a monster season with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner on the same offense. I'd say he'd be more like 150 to 160.
[ Edited by Psinex on Aug 22, 2009 at 3:07 PM ]
  • crzy
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 39,284
Originally posted by Psinex:
Originally posted by crzy:
Originally posted by Psinex:
Receptions .5
Reception Yards 10 yards per point; 2 points at 100 yards
Reception Touchdowns 6

Um, that's not going to give you 22 points per week from your TE.

Gonzalez averaged 6 catches, 66 yards, and 0.625 TD's per week last year.

In your league's scoring system that is only 13.35 points per week from Tony Gonalez.

Thanks for the breakdown of the receivers versus TE's, Krizay. Helps put things into perspective somewhat.

What I meant was getting a combined 20-28 points from the TE and Flex spot. My reasoning is this...in a draft where I'm not going to pick until 7th and 6th in each alternating round, a lot of the guys I want could be taken. So if I target Witten and Gonzo in the 4th-6th rounds, I can get receiver quality numbers from a spot where the other 11 teams might not be looking until I've already got them. Witten will go fast because it's a Cowboys fans-heavy league.

It's probably better that I target Gonzo and someone else...like Vernon in the 8th or something. I have a good feeling about him this year under Jimmy Raye.


The 8th round is way too high for Vernon Davis.
  • crzy
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 39,284
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by crzy:
Originally posted by krizay:

Santonio Holmes PIT 8 66 979 7 139.9
Chad Ochocinco CIN 8 72 1,029 6 138.9
DeSean Jackson PHI 4 73 967 7 138.7
Domenik Hixon NYG 10 80 962 7 138.2
Antonio Bryant TB 8 74 995 6 135.5
Santana Moss WAS 8 67 977 6 133.7
Hines Ward PIT 8 80 915 7 133.5
Brandon Marshall DEN 7 70 966 6 132.6
Braylon Edwards CLE 9 69 966 6 132.6
Anthony Gonzalez IND 6 65 945 6 130.5
Bernard Berrian MIN 9 63 936 6 129.6


Did you come up with those projections.

Because Domenik Hixon looks very very out of place on that list.




FFtoday's projections. Didn't look at the list. Just copied the guys with similar projected numberes of gonzo and witten

lol

whoever came up with those Hixon projections was high.

Between Nicks, Steve Smith, Barden, Hixon, and Manningham, the ball is going to get spread around. Nobody will put up big numbers.
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,956
Originally posted by Psinex:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by crzy:
Originally posted by krizay:

Santonio Holmes PIT 8 66 979 7 139.9
Chad Ochocinco CIN 8 72 1,029 6 138.9
DeSean Jackson PHI 4 73 967 7 138.7
Domenik Hixon NYG 10 80 962 7 138.2
Antonio Bryant TB 8 74 995 6 135.5
Santana Moss WAS 8 67 977 6 133.7
Hines Ward PIT 8 80 915 7 133.5
Brandon Marshall DEN 7 70 966 6 132.6
Braylon Edwards CLE 9 69 966 6 132.6
Anthony Gonzalez IND 6 65 945 6 130.5
Bernard Berrian MIN 9 63 936 6 129.6


Did you come up with those projections.

Because Domenik Hixon looks very very out of place on that list.



FFtoday's projections. Didn't look at the list. Just copied the guys with similar projected numberes of gonzo and witten

OH, I thought those were numbers from last year. Gonzo had almost 200 more yards than the projection. Now I feel like I definitely have to draft Gonzo in the 4th or 5th round. If he had over 1000 yards with Kansas City's QB's, he's going to have a monster season with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner on the same offense. I'd say he'd be more like 150 to 160.

That is one way to look at it. Or one can look at it like he's going to a better team that very easily could be taking the air out of the ball in the 4th quarters to protect their leads. He's also no longer the best player on his team. He's easily the 3rd option now. Behind White and Turner. KC was also in the top 10 in passing attempts last year. While the Falcons were bottom 5.


Not saying Gonzo can't match last years numbers. I just don't think he will.
  • crzy
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 39,284
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by Psinex:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by crzy:
Originally posted by krizay:

Santonio Holmes PIT 8 66 979 7 139.9
Chad Ochocinco CIN 8 72 1,029 6 138.9
DeSean Jackson PHI 4 73 967 7 138.7
Domenik Hixon NYG 10 80 962 7 138.2
Antonio Bryant TB 8 74 995 6 135.5
Santana Moss WAS 8 67 977 6 133.7
Hines Ward PIT 8 80 915 7 133.5
Brandon Marshall DEN 7 70 966 6 132.6
Braylon Edwards CLE 9 69 966 6 132.6
Anthony Gonzalez IND 6 65 945 6 130.5
Bernard Berrian MIN 9 63 936 6 129.6


Did you come up with those projections.

Because Domenik Hixon looks very very out of place on that list.



FFtoday's projections. Didn't look at the list. Just copied the guys with similar projected numberes of gonzo and witten

OH, I thought those were numbers from last year. Gonzo had almost 200 more yards than the projection. Now I feel like I definitely have to draft Gonzo in the 4th or 5th round. If he had over 1000 yards with Kansas City's QB's, he's going to have a monster season with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner on the same offense. I'd say he'd be more like 150 to 160.

That is one way to look at it. Or one can look at it like he's going to a better team that very easily could be taking the air out of the ball in the 4th quarters to protect their leads. He's also no longer the best player on his team. He's easily the 3rd option now. Behind White and Turner. KC was also in the top 10 in passing attempts last year. While the Falcons were bottom 5.


Not saying Gonzo can't match last years numbers. I just don't think he will.

Me neither.

Gonzo got 155 targets each of the past two years. Almost 10 times every game the ball was thrown to Tony G.

With the weapons on the Falcons, he's not going to get the ball thrown to him 150 times this year. More like 120 times.