Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
I'm not gonna deny that they have paid a lot for guys who ended up getting hurt, but I stand by the reason they're tight for both 2020 & 2021 was COVID, up until 2020 they carried over between $35m to $55m a year, as I've said this years cap went down by basically $32.5m.
what site are you using & where are those salaries coming from? Also you need to note that some of those players were slotted, as in draft picks, meaning no matter who they took there would make that money.
You know I only use OTC. 😉
Here are the snap counts
With OTC, simply click on the player > History to see what the team/player committed to on the contracts. Add up 2019, 2020 and 1/2 of 2021. You're welcome to dive into the semantics on what was actually paid out but the point is, that's what the team committed to pay that player whether through FA or draft slot.
Again, these are your top 20 paid players so if you're not expecting them to play significant snaps, you're expecting a significant contribution in the snaps they are slated for (i.e. nickel CB). And that's not happening either.
Yes, QB, OL, CB, MIKE, S, WR1, etc. should be hitting closer to 100% while others like nickel CB, 3rd down ER, SAM, etc. and positions like that should be closer to 67%...FB and TE1? You decide what's appropriate for their top salaries at their positions (use their peers for comparison like Travis Kelce).
But no matter how you slice it, it's poor...really poor, especially when compared to their peers in the same market contracts. You are massively in the red on ROI here and like I said, I didn't even count players like the OL (all those snaps lost), Sherman, Buckner and countless other acquisitions between 2019 and 2021.
As to the COVID off season, that's irrelevant. Every single team had to contend with that. Every team, no matter how much over, got under. As noted above, had this FO made better decisions, it would have been even more irrelevant. In fact, weren't they like top 10 in cap space coming in anyhow WITH a FQB already paid for and only one bigger ticket in-house FA left to sign? They were plenty healthy. That's a poor excuse to me.
Ok, first, you can't expect them to play every starter 100% of the snaps.
As for the guys you listed, the bolded are guys I agree we overpaid, the guys bolded & italicized are guys who didn't miss as much time as you'd think, if you're going by 2019-2021.
Player - Total Snaps - Snaps AVG Per Game - % of Total Snaps - Total Contract
Jimmy Garoppolo - 1,964 - 46 - 68% - $59,800,000
Dee Ford - 482 - 11 - 18% - $26,939,294
Arik Armstead - 2,068 - 48 - 75% - $21,273,941
Nick Bosa - 1,399 - 33 - 51% - $18,443,518
Kyle Juszczyk - 1,275 - 30 - 44% - $13,775,736
Jimmie Ward - 2,301 - 54 - 84% - $10,307,133
Jaquiski Tartt - 1,600 - 37 - 58% - $11,618,750
George Kittle - 1,742 - 41 - 60% - $9,252,148
Raheem Mostert - 716 - 17 - 25% - $7,120,833
Jason Verrett - 866 - 20 - 31% - $5,582,353
K'Waun Williams - 1,305 - 30 - 47% - $6,316,875
Javon Kinlaw - 695 - 29 - 45% - $4,576,207
Fred Warner - 2,680 - 62 - 97% - $3,830,505
Deebo Samuel - 1,614 - 38 - 56% - $4,198,558
Brandon Aiyuk - 1,093 - 46 - 68% - $3,702,444
D.J. Jones - 1,008 - 23 - 37% - $3,271,875
Emmanuel Moseley - 1,646 - 38 - 60% - $2,496,000
Jeff Wilson - 376 - 9 - 13% - $2,311,471
Samson Ebukam - 229 - 29 - 45% - $1,860,294
As for guys who are on rookie deals, you have Bosa, Kittle(2019), Kinlaw, Warner(2019-2020), Deebo, Aiyuk, Jones(2019-2020), Moseley(2019-2020), Wilson(2019-2020). So those guys were gonna get what they got no matter where they went too.
I agree that the QB should be play 100% or as close to it as possible, I don't agree with FB, since not many teams use one, and Kyle, finally, is using him way more often, plus we don't always have a FB on the field, or else it'd be obviously a running play, RB wise, no one, or very few teams still use 1 RB over 80% of the time, the 49ers have always, under Kyle, gone with a RB by Committee approach, WR wise, when it comes to Deebo & Aiyuk, Deebo missed 1 game in 2019, he played I think only 8 in 2020, but that was due to that dumb camp Jimmy thing, hardly injury prone, Aiyuk wise, he missed 4 games, 2 to injury, 2 to COVID-19 list in 2020, and one of those COVID game he could have played, same game Trent missed, that the NFL refused to move to Sunday(the GB game I believe), plus Kyle also rotates WRs, he uses more than 2, usually 3, this year, he's been getting all 5 active into the gameplan, players need rest, they can't go out there week in week out, and play 100%. OL wise, most of our starters(Trent, Mack, Laken, Brunskill) have played pretty much every down this season.
On defense, again you can't expect the same 4 DL to play every game, so guys like Bosa need a breather, 2020 was unusual, as Armstead & Hyder played nearly every down because of Ford & Bosa's injuries, which I should say the Bosa injury was a freak one IMO, I don't want to make excuses, but it's not coincidence that Bosa, Thomas, Jimmy, Mostert, Coleman(I think), & Reed all got hurt on that field at MetLife in back to back weeks, plus even Giants & Jets players complained about it. For the most part DJ has been healthy, he's missed a few games here and there. AA since 2019 has proven to be not only healthy but worth the money(I'm not saying I'd have paid him $17M a yr, but he's produced, forget the sack numbers, he does more, getting pressure on the QB, yes it'd be great to get the QB, but he's doing a damn good job IMO), Kinlaw is unfortunate, but I'm tired of hearing the whole Wirfs this Wirfs that, do I wish we didn't trade Buck, HELL YES, I was pissed, but I like Kinlaw, and won't write him off, he's not Hurd, where Hurd never played a game, he was a bust.
LB Wise, Warner has played pretty much every down, until 2021 Dre as well(well after Kwon's injury), also we don't always put 3 LBs on the field, so we do rotate with guys like Azeez, Harris, etc.... DB wise, this sucks I agree, Verrett has been injury prone way too often, but 2020 looked like he turned the corner, he was signed to a 1yr $5.5M deal, some, including you, said he could get $10M on a multi year deal, I said no way, I'm fine that they gave him that deal, and not a multi year deal, Moseley has been healthy for the most part, but he needs to play better, we need to play Lenoir & Ambry, luckily they'll be active tonight. As for the Safeties, no doubt Tartt has been too injury prone, while Ward has been a soldier since 2019, and he's a guy who makes the defense better IMO.
As for my COVID-19 reason, it's a true IMO, look at the teams current cap room, from OTC as of today.
Team Cap Space
Jaguars $27,520,435
Eagles $21,215,783
Broncos $14,372,501
Seahawks $13,520,037
Washington $10,702,662
Chargers $10,247,189
Steelers $10,163,841
Bengals $8,863,846
Browns $7,464,472
Texans $5,268,056
Panthers $5,021,168
Packers $4,909,867
Patriots $4,502,148
Cowboys $4,277,030
Jets $4,060,437
Vikings $3,965,303
Giants $3,804,880
Bears $3,464,216
Chiefs $3,283,041
49ers $3,253,428
Buccaneers $3,223,173
Bills $3,199,448
Raiders $2,884,766
Titans $2,837,027
Colts $2,569,201
Lions $2,139,412
Falcons $1,748,508
Rams $1,602,788
Saints $1,029,763
Ravens $711,407
Dolphins $616,584
Cardinals ($655,875)
Notice how many teams have less than $10M in cap room(25 teams, 5 have $10M-$14M, only 2 have have over $20M, Jags & Eagles), that shows that the loss of not just the $15.7M from $198.2M to $182.5M hurt, but also the fact that from 2020 to 2021, the cap should have went from $198.2M to $215M, pre COVID, that's another $16.8M drop, so in total, teams lost $32.5M in potential cap room, imagine what that could have done for teams like NO who were $100M over, that right there, put them just $67.5M over, still a lot, NO has a bad cap management issue.
If the cap even never went down, and stayed at what the NFLPA wanted, $198.2M, that's $15.7M more for each team, meaning no need to redo anyone for the 49ers, except Richburg since he was retiring, and maybe Dee since he wasn't being kept at his price, but Ward would have never been redone.
Basically, the issues with the 49ers is a mixture of giving money to players who END up getting hurt, and the issue with the pandemic causing the cap to go down, look at the deals that were given pre-2020, no one knew a pandemic was gonna happen, so they backloaded deals(Jimmy, Kwon, Dee, Richburg, etc...). It's clear things need to change in Santa Clara, but it's not firing Lynch & Shanahan, it's gotta be better evaluating what players to target, don't give big deals to guys who have had injury issues in the past, unless minor ones, and still look into low money, high reward guys, cause there are guys out there, who, could end up costing much less than some big name, and give us as good of production as the big name would.
Also look at fans this offseason & in season clamoring for guys who are in their 30s + injury prone or have had serious injuries, Julio Jones, now he's on IR for at least 3 weeks, I don't even know what he's done for TEN, Stephon Gilmore, he wants $15M a yr, coming off a serious injury, no way the 49ers, nor would I invest $15M a yr into Gilmore, yet fans wanted him because we need help at CB, which is true, but also because he's a big name, then OBJ & Von, OBJ is 1. a locker room & on field distraction IMO, even you said you didn't care if we got him or not, but now, because the Rams got him, it's an issue? As for Von, no way I give up a 2 & 3 for him just so DEN eats $9M, not when he's a FA at the end of the season, the highest pick we can get comp wise is a 2023 5th, due to his age.
As for the whole people being upset we didn't make a "splash" move, that would require redoing guys like Laken(who already counts $1,005,530 in dead money in 2022), or Armstead(which would add onto his 2022-2024 cap numbers), or even Jimmy(Say you save $6.5M, his savings go from $24.845M to $18.345M, which no it's not bad, but, since the 49ers will likely be around $9M-$11M over the 2022 cap, if it does indeed hit the ceiling of $208.2M, that makes the net savings from just Jimmy just $9.345M-$7.345M, that's what we'd be under, then you add in any savings from Laken & AA, that's more lost cap room.
I get the whole redoing Donald is smart, because he's dependable, but sooner or later, it catches up top you, it did for the Saints, all the times they redid Brees to have cap room, Steelers with Ben, GB with Rodgers, NO & GB are projected over next year, only PIT has been able to get out of it after YEARS of doing this.
And I agree with OTC(On The Clock) had to say in his thread about the issue isn't what you think, it's not drafting, we're at 40% according to him, I've said that 30%-35% hit rate makes you a good GM, also and this is a fact, I wish I could fine the image I saw, but, most draft picks(because it's a crapshoot) don't make it past year 3 of their rookie deal, let alone a 2nd contract.
I do agree, the team needs to consider taking some power from Kyle, maybe promote Peters to GM, Lynch to a higher position, but the last thing Jed need to do is be impulsive, and fire them, he's really shown he's off hands when it comes to football decisions, he was impulsive firing Harbaugh when it was Baalke's fault, even though Harbaugh was/is an ego maniac, who can't lead 19-21yr olds, let along MEN, 2nd he took too long to fire Baalke, he hired/fired Chip & Tomsula after 1yr, right moves, but still, neither should have been hired in the first place.
As for the whole notion that the locker room has lost faith in Kyle, I find that as BS, guys have come out and said they believe in Kyle & the talent they have, I don't agree with certain players getting time over others(Norman & Dre over Lenoir & Ambry, no getting Sermon more involved after he had a good game, I forget which week, he had a TD, then he's nowhere to be found, keeping Cannon on the team, not giving Banks a chance over Brunskill at RG, I'm happy to see Aiyuk getting the PT he deserves, I wish Sherfield, and hope with Sanu out, he'll get the 3rd WR snaps now)
Bosa ---> $13,183 per snap. 