49ers select Nick Martin-LB-Oklahoma State with the 75th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
If they're willing to overpay for a house and they're happy then what's the problem. Samewith draftinga player or signing a player. You can'y really believe that any player is worth $50 million per year just because that's what the market says. Lot's of plyers that get signed to big contracts never live up to them.

The final result is all that matteras. If the player performsms well and becomes a major par tof the team it makes no difference whether he was darfted 1st or last. Lance was abust and Purdy has played well. If Lance had played well enough to stay with the team and they won the same amount of games the net result would be the same.

the problem is they lose money and will not see the equity of it down the road. It's bad business and again there's not much to defend or prove that shows it works.

Yes the final results matter and again who is the success story? What player(s) using this we don't give a rip about draft value turned into the obvious right move? Yes they've had a good roster….A LOT of those good players weren't massive reaches. Shocker I know.

FWIW Purdy was properly valued (might have actually been undervalued as the last pick) he certainly wasn't a "reach" at 252.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
Passing on a player you like because you think he'll be availabale later can bite you in the ass. If someone else takes him just before your next pick then you miss out on a guy you wanted because you thought the value wasn't there. If he ends up being a good player then you failed.

And that's part of the draft…if the value isn't there maybe the player isn't as great as you thought. I'll bet money they fail more reaching than letting that player drop to their proper value and take someone else of proper value earlier.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Ah the consensus big board of 2017

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2017/consensus-big-board-2017

You can call it "bad media" or you can call it bad scouting/GM processing from teams all the same.

Even if Martin is graded out as a 3rd rd talent according to your scouts. How about you read the room/league and understand that you STILL might be able to get him later? Maybe see if you can at least move down? My god we made most of our picks within 30 secs of our turn this yr…at least try.

FWIW We did it with Kittle. Had a 3rd rd grade on him, yet they knew they could get him later. Use those other picks on properly valued good talent AND still get your dude…sucks they took those 3rd and 4th rd picks and basically threw it in the trash that yr (CJ and Williams)…who were wait for it…massive reaches!

we've consistently been at the top of the rankings in reaching for talent. Again, rarely has it workout out (I don't need a deflecting point about properly ranked player busts).

Hehe, they compile 300+ internet mock drafts. Not bad, but a little deceptive too in that the pros are mixed in with the punters.

The problem withe the Nick Martin thing for example is that we don't get data on "early" drafts but we do get data on drafts where players fall past the "consensus" ... this year we had Shadeur Sanders fall nearly 200 picks past where the experts put him. If they can get one player wrong by placing him too high they can also get other players wrong by putting them too low. In fact we KNOW they sometimes place them too low because occasionally other teams come out and admit they were going to take that player a few picks later. Bill Walsh's scouts had Joe Montana being on the board in the 5th round and Walsh admitted he chickened out in the 3rd round only to find out years later another team had him in the 3rd round.

It's entirely possible Nick was "overdrafted" but it's also possible he was going to be taken in the next 5 picks, and chances are we'll never know. What matters is if the pick works for the 49ers or not.

Sure it's possible the player you like most on the board at any one moment will still be there later and waiting or trading down works out for you, but you can't assume it. This year a team was looking to trade up to get a player they loved, they couldn't trade up but the player they wanted to trade up for fell to them anyhow.

The point is that the internet experts are MOSTLY guessing on ranking, and they are doing it with virtually no care on needs for scheme and human needs on a team by team basis.

It's fine for talk but just understand it's not facts, it's not close to facts about the real perceived value of the player in the league, and that NONE OF IT MATTERS anymore. Our internet blathering isn't going to change Lynch or Shanahan's thoughts on the next draft day.

Originally posted by Heroism:
yea, for real.

The 49ers are terrible at draft value. We're all 49ers' fans, but we also should be honest because it's obvious they're so bad at applying draft value to their board. This is why their whiffs look sooooo bad. They take guys rounds ahead of where the rest of the league has them slotted.

NOBODY knows where the rest of the league slots players.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Yea but SF is leading the league in this department.

Has someone actually compiled this data?

Originally posted by NYniner85:
And that's part of the draft…if the value isn't there maybe the player isn't as great as you thought. I'll bet money they fail more reaching than letting that player drop to their proper value and take someone else of proper value earlier.

To be clear I totally get your point and I'm not saying the 49ers are right to do what they are doing. My point is that we don't KNOW where players are actually going to go until they go. And much like Walsh "overdrafted" Montana, sometimes we find out it was just in time.

Actually I think there was talk at the time the 49ers overdrafted Jerry Rice but we later learned the Cowboys were going to take him in a few picks and the Niners "stole" him.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
Passing on a player you like because you think he'll be availabale later can bite you in the ass. If someone else takes him just before your next pick then you miss out on a guy you wanted because you thought the value wasn't there. If he ends up being a good player then you failed.

And that's part of the draft…if the value isn't there maybe the player isn't as great as you thought. I'll bet money they fail more reaching than letting that player drop to their proper value and take someone else of proper value earlier.

Once again I'll challange this value issue. Who puts the value on these guys? We all see the mock drafts and rankings for players pryor to the draft. There must be at least 100 different ones and none of them agree on every player. Most start to differ after the first 2 or 3 players. They're all just opinions. Players are only as good as their performance on the field. Trying to assess a draft before the players have a chance to show how they perform in a new system is stupid. After 2 or 3 years then you can look back and see how it was. If it's a typical team you're likely to see more misses than hits. Where those hits were picked isn't relative. If they're starting or playing significant time then it was a good pick.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
Once again I'll challange this value issue. Who puts the value on these guys?

Have you ever heard of BLESTO? Or NFS? There are third-party agencies used by all 32 teams in the NFL to evaluate and grade college athletes. The entire league uses these services to formulate a grading foundation for the entire draft and helps teams map out a league-wide consensus on player draft value. In fact, the dirty secret around the NFL is that a lot of these services do the heavy lifting for the entire league for the draft.

Draft value isn't some arbitrary thing assigned by your favorite poster on the webzone, a grade at PFF, columnist at NFL.com or your favorite website's mock draft. It's a consensus formed by professionals.

Originally posted by Heroism:
Have you ever heard of BLESTO? Or NFS? There are third-party agencies used by all 32 teams in the NFL to evaluate and grade college athletes. The entire league uses these services to formulate a grading foundation for the entire draft and helps teams map out a league-wide consensus on player draft value. In fact, the dirty secret around the NFL is that a lot of these services do the heavy lifting for the entire league for the draft.

Draft value isn't some arbitrary thing assigned by your favorite poster on the webzone, a grade at PFF, columnist at NFL.com or your favorite website's mock draft. It's a consensus formed by professionals.

They are a baseline on the data, then each team digs considerably deeper on the players they highlight. Teams should never just rely on the scouting services.

The "Consensus" mock NYNiner posted references over 3200 online mocks and big boards: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2025/consensus-big-board-2025

I think it's funny they have a "consensus" on the left, but on the right show where they think they will be picked, and they are wildly different in some cases which is telling about the quality of the data :).

We can use all this info to get an idea of what people think about these players for sure ... but it's all subjective data. You take any two scouts to rank their top 32 players the day before the draft and they will almost certainly not agree on all 32.

The reality is that it's all just grist for the mill.

Originally posted by Scoots:
Hehe, they compile 300+ internet mock drafts. Not bad, but a little deceptive too in that the pros are mixed in with the punters.

The problem withe the Nick Martin thing for example is that we don't get data on "early" drafts but we do get data on drafts where players fall past the "consensus" ... this year we had Shadeur Sanders fall nearly 200 picks past where the experts put him. If they can get one player wrong by placing him too high they can also get other players wrong by putting them too low. In fact we KNOW they sometimes place them too low because occasionally other teams come out and admit they were going to take that player a few picks later. Bill Walsh's scouts had Joe Montana being on the board in the 5th round and Walsh admitted he chickened out in the 3rd round only to find out years later another team had him in the 3rd round.

It's entirely possible Nick was "overdrafted" but it's also possible he was going to be taken in the next 5 picks, and chances are we'll never know. What matters is if the pick works for the 49ers or not.

Sure it's possible the player you like most on the board at any one moment will still be there later and waiting or trading down works out for you, but you can't assume it. This year a team was looking to trade up to get a player they loved, they couldn't trade up but the player they wanted to trade up for fell to them anyhow.

The point is that the internet experts are MOSTLY guessing on ranking, and they are doing it with virtually no care on needs for scheme and human needs on a team by team basis.

It's fine for talk but just understand it's not facts, it's not close to facts about the real perceived value of the player in the league, and that NONE OF IT MATTERS anymore. Our internet blathering isn't going to change Lynch or Shanahan's thoughts on the next draft day.

Martin was absolutely overdrafted. He wasn't the 75th best player in this draft. Is what it is. I don't think he's a bad player or can't be good in the NFL.

it's not even just about him. It's about the consistency of them reaching every single yr. We have a solid sample size of them doing this and overall it simply doesn't work. Not sure why we're even debating…it's okay to not believe everything they do is right, trust me them won't take your fan card away

Originally posted by Heroism:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
Once again I'll challange this value issue. Who puts the value on these guys?

Have you ever heard of BLESTO? Or NFS? There are third-party agencies used by all 32 teams in the NFL to evaluate and grade college athletes. The entire league uses these services to formulate a grading foundation for the entire draft and helps teams map out a league-wide consensus on player draft value. In fact, the dirty secret around the NFL is that a lot of these services do the heavy lifting for the entire league for the draft.

Draft value isn't some arbitrary thing assigned by your favorite poster on the webzone, a grade at PFF, columnist at NFL.com or your favorite website's mock draft. It's a consensus formed by professionals.

Agents also talk to all the teams to get rough ideas of their client's draft grade

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Agents also talk to all the teams to get rough ideas of their clients draft projection.

Yup, and they're all in contact with these agencies to get grades and draft projections for their clients. To pretend there isn't league-wide consensus on draft value for all college prospects is objectively wrong.

When the scouting services tell the 49ers that--for example--CJ Beathard is a late day-3 pick/potentially UDFA, the 49ers ignore it and draft him in the 3rd-round, that's the embodiment of terrible draft value. So many other examples like this. The one that really irks me is Cam Latu. What the f**k was that?

Anyways, back to Nick Martin. Yes, he was overdrafted, but I think he's going to be solid.

Originally posted by Heroism:
Have you ever heard of BLESTO? Or NFS? There are third-party agencies used by all 32 teams in the NFL to evaluate and grade college athletes. The entire league uses these services to formulate a grading foundation for the entire draft and helps teams map out a league-wide consensus on player draft value. In fact, the dirty secret around the NFL is that a lot of these services do the heavy lifting for the entire league for the draft.

Draft value isn't some arbitrary thing assigned by your favorite poster on the webzone, a grade at PFF, columnist at NFL.com or your favorite website's mock draft. It's a consensus formed by professionals.

Your still missing a key point. These rankings are done without thought to scheme. Its a good overall consensus ranking and sort of an average overview of where the league might be on a player. But they are done as if players are interchangeable. 3-4 and 4-3 teams have very different opinion about lineman and edge rushers. Offensive coordinators have very different opinions on QB. Power and zone teams have very different opinions on RBs and guards.

Here's DE#11 at 270 pounds and here's DE#12 at 253 pounds. If DE11 is gone then just get DE12. Thats the value pick. But what if he doesnt fit the scheme or need? The next power setting edge that fits your scheme might be DE#15 and so he appears overdrafted. But in reality, you had DE11 at DE8, and DE15 as DE9, and DE12 was your DE22.

Case in point. Tyler Booker. Love him as a prospect. He'd be my top rated guard if I were doing consensus rankings. If I were GM of the 49ers, I dont think hes my top 3 guards. No surprise Kellen Moore like Tyler Shough over Milroe. No surprise Milroe goes to Seattle. Pat Freiermuth and Mike Gesicki nearly had the same stats last year, but one is an inline blocker and the other plays as a big slot. These are not the same players and no surprise power run teams and spead passing teams will value them very differently.

And thats where a guy like Nick Martin is unique. Hes the only LB drafted before the 5th round thats under 229 pounds. Hees in the top 5 at the combine in 40, 10 split, vertical, broad. On body type and athletic profile alone, if you want a light, fast, explosive OLB. He was your choice. Thats not how some teams play so he could easily have a 6 round grade for some teams. If you are a 3-4 team and want to rush with weight, hes not your guy. If thats what you are looking for, then theres wasnt much besides him so you go get it. To you, he has third round value as a starting LB.

Originally posted by Scoots:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Yea but SF is leading the league in this department.

Has someone actually compiled this data?

Yes, this is this yr.


this is the collection of reaches since 2017