Originally posted by FL9er:
i could easily see the 49ers "drop off" to 10-6/11-5. This team was in the Super Bowl last year. The only way to surpass what they did last year is to actually win it. There will be injuries, that is just a fact. I could make an argument that they could lose 1 game each to Seattle, Los Angeles, and Arizona. I'm not sure AZ did enough to fix their OL and defense, but they nearly got us last year (2nd game), the Seahawks did beat us and were an inch away from a friggin' sweep. Everyone wants to write off the Rams, but McVay is a really good coach and a lot the players and bad contracts they dumped were for under-performing players (relative to what they were being paid), and it took TWO 3rd and 16 conversions in the last minute of regulation just to beat them the 2nd time. Division games are always tough, they know the tendencies and strengths and weaknesses of the players. We run Seattle's defense. They should KNOW how to attack it. I could point to all the times the 49ers during the glory years dropping games to the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons that should've been wins on paper. Even during the Harbaugh years, AZ and the Rams were a pain in the ass.
And that doesn't even take into account the tougher non-division games (on paper). We see this every year, teams we thought would be good have a down year, and vice versa.
Also the 49ers defense was historically good last year (against the pass). There is the regression to the mean. It happens a lot more often than you think.
I know a lot of 49ers fans are fired up with the direction of the team and think the glory days are back and they have a clear path to the Super Bowl, but it's not gonna be easy. It never is. [Unless you're the Pats]

10-6/11-5? People like yourself are falling into the pessimism of
cciowa.
You are assuming injuries will derail us yet again. You're forgetting that Shanny and Lynch have staffed the roster to relativity survive injuries. Let us not forget that there was a good stretch last season where we didn't have BOTH OT's, Kwan Alexander, a starting CB, and Dee Ford, not to mention injuries to the backfield forcing us to get RB's off the PS. For most teams missing both starting OT's alone would end their season. You, and others, are assuming regressions on defense when we're returning all but one player, and his replacement, while not Buck, will still demand a double team. So I fail to see a production drop-off there.
This team is loaded to get back to the SB, and win this time. No team in our division has really done much that I see that'll knock us off as divisional champs, so I cannot see how you think AZ and the Lambs would split with us. You yourself acknowledged that AZ hasn't done much to fix their OL issues, or help on D. McVay is good, but he's living on much of what he learned from Shanny. While SEA did beat us we did beat them 2 out of 3 times, once in their building, in a high pressure game no less.
And you're wrong. We DO NOT run SEA's defense! True, Saleh came from that tree, but our 4-3 scheme is vastly different. SEA's 4-3 scheme is man coverage dependent to help generate a pass rush; they are built back to front. Our 4-3 more zone coverage (or zone-man coverage) that depends on the front 4 to get to the QB. We're built front to back. I really wish people stop saying that we're running SEA's defense, because we're not.
"The tougher non-divisional games". Are you serious? Have you seen the 2020 schedule? We play the NFC East, THE weakest division in all of football. We play the Brady-less AFC East, perhaps the 2nd weakest division in football. Last seasons schedule was much tougher than this seasons, hands down.
What you and others are doing are using injuries (and I dare say fear) and an assumed drop-off on defense as cop-outs so as to minimize expectations. People don't want a big letdown due to the drought of greatness since the 80's and 90's. Now that we have the foundation for a legitimate return to long-term, sustained greatness some fans are on a "see it first" bandwagon and generically predicting 10-6/11-5 without even digging deep into the schedule and the teams themselves. Last season I predicted an 11 or 12 win season because I was looking at the schedule.
Speaking of which, cciowa predicted a similar results last season, predicting 8 wins:
https://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/192240-2019-nfl-schedule-release/page24/
Many fans like myself
expected 11, 12 wins with at least a wildcard birth:
https://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/192240-2019-nfl-schedule-release/page23
Though they aren't saying it, I honestly think that there are many fans that really think that the 49ers over achieved last season and therefore look for reasons for regression to avoid disappointment. IMHO.