Grade the offense

Originally posted by Goatie:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Goatie:

WR are the obvious problem. QB long passing game is another.

Very true!

I wonder if Ellington would have gone alright at WR? It was where he played in college and did quite ok. But the 49ers never utilised him there, instead had him as a returner until he went on IR this year

Yeah, we've had a lot of mis or non-utilization of personnel over the years. It wasn't until this year that I felt Ellington was prime for a big role in the offense and in an offense that highlighted his skill set...instead, Kerley got that chance because, as, always, Ellington got himself hurt...again. The good news is that if we sign Kerley, we have a chance to have real depth at the YWR position.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Goatie:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Goatie:

WR are the obvious problem. QB long passing game is another.

Very true!

I wonder if Ellington would have gone alright at WR? It was where he played in college and did quite ok. But the 49ers never utilised him there, instead had him as a returner until he went on IR this year

Yeah, we've had a lot of mis or non-utilization of personnel over the years. It wasn't until this year that I felt Ellington was prime for a big role in the offense and in an offense that highlighted his skill set...instead, Kerley got that chance because, as, always, Ellington got himself hurt...again. The good news is that if we sign Kerley, we have a chance to have real depth at the YWR position.

Before the season started I honestly thought Eric Rodgers was gonna be our best receiver at the end of the year...then he gets hurt ughh

Originally posted by yung_prophet_one:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Goatie:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Goatie:

WR are the obvious problem. QB long passing game is another.

Very true!

I wonder if Ellington would have gone alright at WR? It was where he played in college and did quite ok. But the 49ers never utilised him there, instead had him as a returner until he went on IR this year

Yeah, we've had a lot of mis or non-utilization of personnel over the years. It wasn't until this year that I felt Ellington was prime for a big role in the offense and in an offense that highlighted his skill set...instead, Kerley got that chance because, as, always, Ellington got himself hurt...again. The good news is that if we sign Kerley, we have a chance to have real depth at the YWR position.

Before the season started I honestly thought Eric Rodgers was gonna be our best receiver at the end of the year...then he gets hurt ughh

As a fan, that has been my biggest frustration. We just want to see these kids get on the field and stay on the field so we can properly evaluate them. I was very curious myself, with his size and catching radius, what he could do.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by yung_prophet_one:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Goatie:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Goatie:
WR are the obvious problem. QB long passing game is another.

Very true!

I wonder if Ellington would have gone alright at WR? It was where he played in college and did quite ok. But the 49ers never utilised him there, instead had him as a returner until he went on IR this year

Yeah, we've had a lot of mis or non-utilization of personnel over the years. It wasn't until this year that I felt Ellington was prime for a big role in the offense and in an offense that highlighted his skill set...instead, Kerley got that chance because, as, always, Ellington got himself hurt...again. The good news is that if we sign Kerley, we have a chance to have real depth at the YWR position.

Before the season started I honestly thought Eric Rodgers was gonna be our best receiver at the end of the year...then he gets hurt ughh

As a fan, that has been my biggest frustration. We just want to see these kids get on the field and stay on the field so we can properly evaluate them. I was very curious myself, with his size and catching radius, what he could do.

Just seems like bad resource management to me

Originally posted by susweel:
I'd rather pluck my ass hairs.

LOL

What other grade can you give this offense than a:
F-
Minus!

Originally posted by Trath44:
What other grade can you give this offense than a:
F-
Minus!

Oh come on Trath44, we beat the Rams

After watching only the 2nd half punting match of last night's Raiders Chiefs game it would appear that our offense is right up there with the better teams in the league.

QBs D
RBs B
WRs D-
TEs C-
OL C

Originally posted by NCommand:

Probably best fair to compare a Kelly offense (here) with a Kelly offense (Philly):

Just the basic stats:

Passing: Yearly Yards Totals (Per Game Average)
QB's Vick/Foles/Sanchez/Bradford – Colin Kaepernick = 4,442 + 27

Kaepernick is currently on pace to throw for 3,300 yards + 27 TD's over a 16 game span under Kelly. Keep in mind he had a couple slow games and that Bears game killed a higher pace (3,800). Overall, I don't get the impression he's executing all the plays per design; still relying on ad lib plays, his running and his accuracy remains 'iffy'. I'd give him a C- grade, mostly for his big addition to the running game.

Rush Distribution:
Total Yards = 2,096
RB1 McCoy/Murray – Carlos Hyde = 1,209
RB2 Matthews – Shaun Draughn = 394
RB3 Sproles – DuJuan Harris = 317
QB Vick/Foles – Colin Kaepernick = 285

Carlos Hyde is on pace for 1,100 (11 TD's) so right on the projection for the 9 games he's played...health is his issue. I'd give him a B+ grade given he's getting these yards via facing an injury and the running scheme is very predictable; we've faced some great rushing defenses as well. But he's got to stay on the field.
Colin Kaepernick has gone off on the ground and has blown his original projection out of the water. He's on pace for 900 vs. the 285 we originally predicted for Kelly's QB's. A- grade.
DuJuan Harris is on pace for 419. Few snaps but he produces every time he's on the field. B+ grade. 100 more yards than Sproles.
Shaun Draughn is on pace for 162. B- grade. He's had a lot of big runs called back and should be right at 400. Nothing more/less.

Receiving Distribution:
WR1 Jackson/Maclin – Torrey Smith = 1,325 --- Torrey is only on pace for 427. Sad. We just don't use him like Kelly used Jackson/Maclin in Philly. D grade. Not sure if he's massively underutilized, a poor player or both. He certainly was a different player with Flacco.
WR2 Cooper/Matthews – Quinton Patton (Eric Rogers) = 820 --- We lost Rogers and had to go with Quinton Patton. Only on pace for 544. I'd give him a C- grade mostly for his help in run support (he improved a lot here).
TE1 Ertz – Vance McDonald = 675 --- Right on pace with 670. A- grade given his pace/production and he's doing it with far less targets and he continues to spring big runs inline and esp. out in space.
RB1 McCoy/Sproles – Carlos Hyde = 438 --- Under pace at 213. C+ grade here; some drops and mostly, underutilized.
TE2 Celek – Garrett Celek = 413 --- Right on pace with 400. Nothing flashy with TE2 but that's Kelly's offense. C+ grade for matching the pace but he's had some big drops and fumbles.
WR3 Avant – Jeremy Kerley (Bruce Ellington) = 272 --- Kerley is way above pace with 652 making up for the WR1 and the WR2 some. A- grade. Only negative is small catching radius.

Offensive Line:
Joe Staley – B+ grade this year; still some quick pressures from his side but steady and above average in run blocking.
Zane Beadles – C grade this year; most sacks have come from inside and slightly below average in run blocking. Lacks power at the POA.
Daniel Kilgore – C+ grade this year; makes all the run blocking calls and you can't ignore a 1,100 yard RB1 when 95% of the runs are IZ runs. Lacks power at the POA.
Joshua Garnett – C grade this year; most sacks have come from inside and can get beat on quicker inside DL and fails to pick up the stunting inside pass rusher. Streaky in PP and getting better and better in run blocking. Has the tools. Good rookie season.
Trenton Brown – B- grade this year; zero sacks outside and the few he has given up were on inside (usually stunts). Can pick up two blitzers at once. Lacks conditioning and is good with the initial call (run or pass) but doesn't play through the whistle and can fail at the second level in run blocking. Powerful in goal line and short yardage. Good first year and lots to build on.

Absolutely great breakdown

Originally posted by tohara3:

Absolutely great breakdown

Thank you kind sir!

Originally posted by tohara3:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Probably best fair to compare a Kelly offense (here) with a Kelly offense (Philly):

Just the basic stats:

Passing: Yearly Yards Totals (Per Game Average)
QB's Vick/Foles/Sanchez/Bradford – Colin Kaepernick = 4,442 + 27

Kaepernick is currently on pace to throw for 3,300 yards + 27 TD's over a 16 game span under Kelly. Keep in mind he had a couple slow games and that Bears game killed a higher pace (3,800). Overall, I don't get the impression he's executing all the plays per design; still relying on ad lib plays, his running and his accuracy remains 'iffy'. I'd give him a C- grade, mostly for his big addition to the running game.

Rush Distribution:
Total Yards = 2,096
RB1 McCoy/Murray – Carlos Hyde = 1,209
RB2 Matthews – Shaun Draughn = 394
RB3 Sproles – DuJuan Harris = 317
QB Vick/Foles – Colin Kaepernick = 285

Carlos Hyde is on pace for 1,100 (11 TD's) so right on the projection for the 9 games he's played...health is his issue. I'd give him a B+ grade given he's getting these yards via facing an injury and the running scheme is very predictable; we've faced some great rushing defenses as well. But he's got to stay on the field.
Colin Kaepernick has gone off on the ground and has blown his original projection out of the water. He's on pace for 900 vs. the 285 we originally predicted for Kelly's QB's. A- grade.
DuJuan Harris is on pace for 419. Few snaps but he produces every time he's on the field. B+ grade. 100 more yards than Sproles.
Shaun Draughn is on pace for 162. B- grade. He's had a lot of big runs called back and should be right at 400. Nothing more/less.

Receiving Distribution:
WR1 Jackson/Maclin – Torrey Smith = 1,325 --- Torrey is only on pace for 427. Sad. We just don't use him like Kelly used Jackson/Maclin in Philly. D grade. Not sure if he's massively underutilized, a poor player or both. He certainly was a different player with Flacco.
WR2 Cooper/Matthews – Quinton Patton (Eric Rogers) = 820 --- We lost Rogers and had to go with Quinton Patton. Only on pace for 544. I'd give him a C- grade mostly for his help in run support (he improved a lot here).
TE1 Ertz – Vance McDonald = 675 --- Right on pace with 670. A- grade given his pace/production and he's doing it with far less targets and he continues to spring big runs inline and esp. out in space.
RB1 McCoy/Sproles – Carlos Hyde = 438 --- Under pace at 213. C+ grade here; some drops and mostly, underutilized.
TE2 Celek – Garrett Celek = 413 --- Right on pace with 400. Nothing flashy with TE2 but that's Kelly's offense. C+ grade for matching the pace but he's had some big drops and fumbles.
WR3 Avant – Jeremy Kerley (Bruce Ellington) = 272 --- Kerley is way above pace with 652 making up for the WR1 and the WR2 some. A- grade. Only negative is small catching radius.

Offensive Line:
Joe Staley – B+ grade this year; still some quick pressures from his side but steady and above average in run blocking.
Zane Beadles – C grade this year; most sacks have come from inside and slightly below average in run blocking. Lacks power at the POA.
Daniel Kilgore – C+ grade this year; makes all the run blocking calls and you can't ignore a 1,100 yard RB1 when 95% of the runs are IZ runs. Lacks power at the POA.
Joshua Garnett – C grade this year; most sacks have come from inside and can get beat on quicker inside DL and fails to pick up the stunting inside pass rusher. Streaky in PP and getting better and better in run blocking. Has the tools. Good rookie season.
Trenton Brown – B- grade this year; zero sacks outside and the few he has given up were on inside (usually stunts). Can pick up two blitzers at once. Lacks conditioning and is good with the initial call (run or pass) but doesn't play through the whistle and can fail at the second level in run blocking. Powerful in goal line and short yardage. Good first year and lots to build on.

Absolutely great breakdown

Eh, you can't benchmark players as if they all played 16 games. At the end of the analysis you're counting about 20 games worth of yardage, because you're not backlogging the yardage the backups picked up in starters roles.

Originally posted by McClusky:

Eh, you can't benchmark players as if they all played 16 games. At the end of the analysis you're counting about 20 games worth of yardage, because you're not backlogging the yardage the backups picked up in starters roles. One again NC conducted a test in a way that produced far more favorable results for the 49ers, than what actually happened.

This is a fair point - if you add up per game averages for everyone and multiply them by the number of games we've played, you'll end up with more yards than our offense has produced this season. If Hyde misses a game and Draughn gets a lot more carries, it doesn't make sense to interpolate Draugns' per game average to 16 games and Hyde's per game average to 16 games (Draughn's numbers would go down if Hyde played all 16 games).

Still appreciate the analysis and time that went into this. I agree with a lot of the rankings and think Beadles and/or Kilgore need to go (we have to improve our offensive line somehow and we aren't going to replace promising young players in Garnett and Brown). I'd probably give Kaepernick a C+ grade so far if you include rushing taking into account his terrible supporting cast. I don't expect a rookie QB to provide a ton of value over Kaepernick - there isn't one player who we can add that will completely turn around this offense.

Most of you are grading too generous. The 49er offense is 30th in total yards and 25th in points that means the average grade for anyone participating in that mess should be around a D minus, not all the C's and B's people are giving out.

Originally posted by McClusky:

Eh, you can't benchmark players as if they all played 16 games. At the end of the analysis you're counting about 20 games worth of yardage, because you're not backlogging the yardage the backups picked up in starters roles.

You can if you're 11-12 of 16 games in.

No probability study will ever get that large of a sample of the full population.

TBF, some players like CK can have wide on-pace differences because of low sample sizes & outlier performances (i.e. CK with only 6 games, or his Chicago performance, etc.). Prior to that Chicago game, he was on pace for 3,800...after...3,300. But we can only work with the players in games and their performance. Eventually it comes together at 16 games and now we have benchmarks to see how our players matched up. No doubt, that is why McDonald was just signed. Because he'll be the Ertz to this offense. We should see 4.5 to 6.5 targets for him next year if Kelly stays within his own play calling.

That said, I'll revisit in 4 games to see how these individuals compared to the benchmark average performances under Kelly's system for three years.

It was just an exercise back in the summer to get an idea of what Kelly produced in his system and how that could be used as a benchmark for the players here...whether they had the same talent level or not.

Learned a lot about Kelly's system this year.