Grade the offense

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by McClusky:

Eh, you can't benchmark players as if they all played 16 games. At the end of the analysis you're counting about 20 games worth of yardage, because you're not backlogging the yardage the backups picked up in starters roles.

You can if you're 11-12 of 16 games in.

No probability study will ever get that large of a sample of the full population.

TBF, some players like CK can have wide on-pace differences because of low sample sizes & outlier performances (i.e. CK with only 6 games, or his Chicago performance, etc.).

That said, I'll revisit in 4 games to see how these individuals compared to the benchmark average performances under Kelly's system for three years.

It was just an exercise back in the summer to get an idea of what Kelly produced in his system and how that could be used as a benchmark for the players here...whether they had the same talent level or not.

Learned a lot about Kelly's system this year.

His point was that the average yards per game of some of our backups include games while the starters were out (RB is the most obvious example). It wasn't that you can't interpolate 12 game averages into 16 games.

A simpler example would be at the QB position if you were to interpolate Kaepernick's numbers to 16 games and interpolate Gabbert's numbers to 16 games and add them together. You'd be assuming that even if Kaepernick played all year, Gabbert would have put up the same per game numbers. You're basically doing this for the games Hyde missed assuming Harris and Draughn would have put up the same numbers if Hyde had played.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

This is a fair point - if you add up per game averages for everyone and multiply them by the number of games we've played, you'll end up with more yards than our offense has produced this season. If Hyde misses a game and Draughn gets a lot more carries, it doesn't make sense to interpolate Draugns' per game average to 16 games and Hyde's per game average to 16 games (Draughn's numbers would go down if Hyde played all 16 games).

Still appreciate the analysis and time that went into this. I agree with a lot of the rankings and think Beadles and/or Kilgore need to go (we have to improve our offensive line somehow and we aren't going to replace promising young players in Garnett and Brown). I'd probably give Kaepernick a C+ grade so far if you include rushing taking into account his terrible supporting cast. I don't expect a rookie QB to provide a ton of value over Kaepernick - there isn't one player who we can add that will completely turn around this offense.

Thanks. Good point. Hyde missed 2.5 games. So naturally, Harris and Draughn would step up for him with more utilization than normal inflating their projections. And then return to normal when Hyde comes back.

But either way, if you compared Harris/Draughn (RB2 & 3) to what Kelly's RB2 & 3 did in Philly, they are still similar. Maybe HOW that was achieved was different...but the end result might end up being the same. And that's the point.

This exercise is only done for these players based on the games they actually played in and the production they provided while in those game. The underline is that IF a player stays healthy and plays all 16 games, X is the production pace they are on.

In the real world, players get hurt so their projections won't always match their season end stats.

CK didn't start every game, Hyde missed 2.5 games, Vance 1, Harris brought back late, Draughn not utilized much and then used a lot last game, Streater now taking up Patton snaps, etc. You get the idea. So this is just a reference exercise. The projections will get closer and closer to reality the closer to 16 games they actually play.

Some players in Kelly's system were able to stay healthy for 16 games and for three years under him so their benchmarks would be the best/most accurate to use for us and our players.

Also, the rest of the offensive players HAVE been healthy for us and consistently in the lineup save for Harris. So it's more accurate in this case. The defense would certainly not work for this exercise in terms of accuracy. LOL

Obviously, Kelly relied heavily on a core of 4-5 receivers for X number of yards. Here, he doesn't have that same luxury so he's got to utilize 9 different players to achieve the same end production he had in Philly.

Overall production is the key though as is setting up realistic expectations for our players within Kelly's offense...no matter how he gets us there.

He's got some parts in Kaepernick (bridge QB), Hyde, Harris, McDonald, Celek and Kerley. He badly needs a true XWR and especially, ZWR..he might need a more powerful G/C too. Depth for Hyde. He certainly needs a better QB but this exercise proves he gets similar production from every QB within his system so that's encouraging! Especially if we end up going with a rookie next year.

So it's not as bleak as first thought where we thought he had zero talent to run his system.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Yeah, we've had a lot of mis or non-utilization of personnel over the years. It wasn't until this year that I felt Ellington was prime for a big role in the offense and in an offense that highlighted his skill set...instead, Kerley got that chance because, as, always, Ellington got himself hurt...again. The good news is that if we sign Kerley, we have a chance to have real depth at the YWR position.

That's questionable since the guys we have really haven't done anything.

Maybe if TB had drafted an impact WR we'd have a better idea if it would be quality depth or not.

F+ quarterbacks
C- running backs
F- Wr
D- Te
D OL
That = 1-11

Originally posted by LasVegasWally:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Yeah, we've had a lot of mis or non-utilization of personnel over the years. It wasn't until this year that I felt Ellington was prime for a big role in the offense and in an offense that highlighted his skill set...instead, Kerley got that chance because, as, always, Ellington got himself hurt...again. The good news is that if we sign Kerley, we have a chance to have real depth at the YWR position.

That's questionable since the guys we have really haven't done anything.

Maybe if TB had drafted an impact WR we'd have a better idea if it would be quality depth or not.

The Y is the slot position Kerley occupies. And he's performed x3 already in this offense compared to Avant in Kelly's offense. IF Ellington can ever get healthy and we sign Kerley, we're now two deep at that WR position...three with Burbridge.

Next step? Find a QB who can pass to the XWR in Torrey or find another XWR (speed; play maker).

Next step after that? Find a true big-bodied ZWR with a huge catching radius and play maker (i.e. Bryant, Benjamin, etc.)