49ers 2016 win total over/under 5.5

Originally posted by GarnerValleyFan:
Quite frankly, anything less than 10 wins and playoff would be consider disappointment. Chip Kelly being genius and all. Less than 7 wins, Chip's honey moon will be so over. Less than 5 wins, we may be looking at the new HC. Boys are all saying the right thing about Chip right now, but then this time last year, boys were praising Tomsula too.

lol, not a chance in hell of that happening.

Originally posted by Joecool:
I think the leap in coaching will make us a team that has a chance for the playoffs. Think this is similar to the Singletary to Harbaugh upgrade.

What makes it more realistic is our focus on improving the talent on defense as well.

I think Kelly got little to no support in PHI after Gamble left. That makes a huge difference. Just look at Harbaughs last year here. Think Kelly is capable of very good things if the front office supports him the right way.

In 2010 the 49ers were widely picked to win the NFC West. This team is nowhere close to the playoffs, they are in the midst of a rebuild and still about 2 years away if all goes well. People expecting them to be anywhere close to a playoff berth are only setting themselves up for a disappointment. Seattle is still Seattle and the Cards got quite a bit better this offseason. The Rams may or may not have improved with the addition of a QB but things certainly won't be easier than last year.

Playoffs? Did he say playoffs? We're just trying to win a goddamn game.

Remember, beating lines on -110 type wagers (Bet 110 to win 100 profit) are set to get an even split of money on each side to guarantee maximum profit with zero risk.
The sports books are just trying to accurately predict what the betting public thinks. The 5.5 o/u is reflective of general public opinion, not the experts.

Last yr, had we drafted the kind of quality talent we drafted this yr, we would have had the same results...5 Ws. Simply, there was NO coaching last yr, there was no one to get these draftees focused, practiced, and then coached up. Actually, there was this laughable oddball idea to not have full contact practices on most days, nor full speed practices....just walk thrus...and on the field...it showed. As I have posted before, we had TWO wins and 3 others where the other team just lost, or there were unmade FGs or FG clangers. And that is how we managed to get 5 Ws, pretty much on a true 2 W team. Could the coaching have been worse? Well , I guess anything is possible, but it is hard to imagine. We were as good as our coaching, but no better.

So I ask you: if same coaching staff were here this yr, would we be talking about 5.5 Ws? Unnnhhh....no. We would realistically be talking about another 2 Ws, with extra ration of prayers to get us 3 more Ws. On top of that, the draft last yr was below average. It produced no plug and play impact starters, whereas we had two impact starters this yr before the first round was over. And then we had the talent dump....tons of it....literally, if you wanted to weigh the entire draft class. Easily tons of talent'..

Now we come to the interesting part of the question....with a truly skilled coaching staff, and an innovative, highly charged HC/OC, is it not reasonable that this yrs draftees PLUS LAST yr's coaching would lead us to 2 Ws, or even 1st pick in 2017? Whereas I have posted a rock bottom W number at 5, there is no way we don't win 6, I guess that makes me a 5.5 W guy. But that is just based purely on talent of those drafted. Now add in the massive upswing in quality of coaching, and I think the 5.5 Ws may be in jeopardy of being one order of magnitude off....i.e., double the # of Ws. Not saying it is going to happen, but am saying that the massive burst of coaching improvement probably is not being factored in by those in the 5.5 W category. We all witnessed what a guy who could organize all our talent accumulated over the preceding 9 yrs did beginning in 2011. The team took off. We became a recognizable team once again. Kudos to Harbaw for organizing our talent. And that skill carried us thru the first 3 yrs. It was shown up in NFCC games and one SB , however, and was woefully short on O coaching, i.e., game planning, play calls, and RZ/goal line O. In short we had none. And consequently lost the one most important game 3 yrs in a row..our last one each yr. The D was frightfully good. The O playcalls were those of a guy and his OC who knew no O. So had we had Harbaw last yr, I think our Ws would have been about the same, maybe one more or so.

No it isn't/ wasn't just tomsul, it would have been same with Harbaw too...IMO. THIS yr, we DO have a pure football guy, an innovator on O, who is something special to factor into the calculus of Ws this yr. And whereas the 5.5 Ws is fair and legit re: talent, I believe it does not factor in the uncommonly good coaching we are about to witness. And no, he won't be laying off contact drills nor walking thru plays to practice them. We have a genuine red hot OC/HC this yr PLUS the incredible amount of terrific talent that Trent AND cihip assembled.

Talentwise, we are a 5.5 W team. Factor in the massive upswing from great coaching, and I wouldn't be that surprised to see us double those 5 Ws based just on coacihing alone.
I am not saying it will happen but am saying I believe 5.5 Ws factors in talent only...not coaching. So with the best draft class based on eyeball assessment since back in BW times, I am saying we could easily surprise everyone with our draftees PLUS coaching.

By rights we look to win 1 of our first half dozen games,.... the first one,...it is conceivable all this shot in the arm of talent becomes way better due to top flite coaching.
Just saying, that's all...

If everything played out just like people predict at the beginning of the season there would be no reason to play the games. No one knows what's going to happen. With some luck, good coaching and some player development, this team could do okay.

Originally posted by BobS:

Remember, beating lines on -110 type wagers (Bet 110 to win 100 profit) are set to get an even split of money on each side to guarantee maximum profit with zero risk.
The sports books are just trying to accurately predict what the betting public thinks. The 5.5 o/u is reflective of general public opinion, not the experts.

No ,the opening lines are what the experts think. How they move after is based on public money.

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

Originally posted by BobS:
Remember, beating lines on -110 type wagers (Bet 110 to win 100 profit) are set to get an even split of money on each side to guarantee maximum profit with zero risk.
The sports books are just trying to accurately predict what the betting public thinks. The 5.5 o/u is reflective of general public opinion, not the experts.

No ,the opening lines are what the experts think. How they move after is based on public money.

It's based on how the experts think the public will bet which is slightly different. The goal of opening lines is to be as close as possible to the final lines.

There's probably not a huge difference between the two though - 5.5 likely reflects expert opinion as well as general public opinion.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

Originally posted by BobS:

Remember, beating lines on -110 type wagers (Bet 110 to win 100 profit) are set to get an even split of money on each side to guarantee maximum profit with zero risk.
The sports books are just trying to accurately predict what the betting public thinks. The 5.5 o/u is reflective of general public opinion, not the experts.

No ,the opening lines are what the experts think. How they move after is based on public money.

It's based on how the experts think the public will bet which is slightly different. The goal of opening lines is to be as close as possible to the final lines.

There's probably not a huge difference between the two though - 5.5 likely reflects expert opinion as well as general public opinion.

No opening line is the experts pick.

The juice on the bet is for the casinos to move the amount of bets of the public.

Right now it -115 for both the over and under which means the public is split.

If the public bets heavily on one side they will raise the juice (-170 etc) to try and even out the public bets and if that doesn't work they move the lines to even out the bets.

I predict the over for super bowl victories for next season

For the "since we won 5 games in '15 crowd, we'll definitely win more than 5 in '16" crowd, you obviously don't remember how bad & lucky how four of those wins were. Especially BAL and CHI. It's a very tough schedule, and I think the 5.5 line is perfect. I'll bet the over to have some action, but I don't like the bet, and I'll be thrilled if they win 6+ games in '16.

Their record will be 11-5
6-0 in the division
Super Bowl champs

Originally posted by Andra:
Their record will be 11-5
6-0 in the division
Super Bowl champs

you serious?

Originally posted by harryj:

Originally posted by Andra:

Their record will be 11-5
6-0 in the division
Super Bowl champs

you serious?

Seriously trying to predict the future? Sure why not. I'm very optimistic

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
lol, not a chance in hell of that happening.

[ He, she or it ] must be a Harbonehead fan and/or a cawksucker fan