49ers 2016 win total over/under 5.5

Tough ass schedule. Tough ass division.

Anti Packers in those terms.

How does a 5-11 team get stuck with that schedule?

Originally posted by BobS:
How does a 5-11 team get stuck with that schedule?

I don't mind, I can live with another tank year so we can get our franchise Qb.

Originally posted by BobS:
The 49ers had one of the league's worst defenses last year, it was miracle to get 5 wins all things considered. If the rookies take a while to acclimate or don't make a quick impact combining that with the up tempo offense putting more pressure on the defense you could still end up with a 5 win team. No matter how much improved the offense is, it won't matter if the defense can't stop anybody.

The defense actually played pretty well at home. If you only looked at those statistics they would have been in something like the top five in scoring defense. The problem was they got torched on the road. Lots of unknowns going into this year given that they will be playing in a new system and that Kelly's offense supposedly will put more pressure on them to deliver. On the plus side, because of injuries a lot of guys got playing time last year that they might not have other wise like Tartt and Cromartie. Bethea coming back could be a help but there is a chance he might not even make the team. I think the biggest problem was lack of consistency and the lack of an effective pass rush which put added pressure on their secondary. Hopefully Buckner and Blair will help address some of that.

Would like to have seen them get an ILB to run with Bowman but maybe Hodges will step up and be better this year. He flashed a bit last year but his lack of recognition really hurt them a few times in those games where they were getting gashed for long runs. I think a lot of what will happen this year will depend on how effective Kelly's offense proves to be with the players currently on the roster and whether or not the changes made along the offensive line will be effective and which, if any, of the receivers will step up. I like the running backs and TE's we have and feel that if Gabbert wins the starting job that he will at least be able to execute the offense so I would think 5 to 8 wins is a possibility depending on how things fall. I certainly wouldn't count them out in their own division. They're obviously not going to win it but they could be competitive. The Rams will be starting a rookie QB and the Niners played the Cardinals tough in their second meeting so I don't think they will be the doormats that everyone seems to envision.

Originally posted by 49ers81:

The defense actually played pretty well at home. If you only looked at those statistics they would have been in something like the top five in scoring defense. The problem was they got torched on the road. Lots of unknowns going into this year given that they will be playing in a new system and that Kelly's offense supposedly will put more pressure on them to deliver. On the plus side, because of injuries a lot of guys got playing time last year that they might not have other wise like Tartt and Cromartie. Bethea coming back could be a help but there is a chance he might not even make the team. I think the biggest problem was lack of consistency and the lack of an effective pass rush which put added pressure on their secondary. Hopefully Buckner and Blair will help address some of that.

Would like to have seen them get an ILB to run with Bowman but maybe Hodges will step up and be better this year. He flashed a bit last year but his lack of recognition really hurt them a few times in those games where they were getting gashed for long runs. I think a lot of what will happen this year will depend on how effective Kelly's offense proves to be with the players currently on the roster and whether or not the changes made along the offensive line will be effective and which, if any, of the receivers will step up. I like the running backs and TE's we have and feel that if Gabbert wins the starting job that he will at least be able to execute the offense so I would think 5 to 8 wins is a possibility depending on how things fall. I certainly wouldn't count them out in their own division. They're obviously not going to win it but they could be competitive. The Rams will be starting a rookie QB and the Niners played the Cardinals tough in their second meeting so I don't think they will be the doormats that everyone seems to envision.

Really nice post!

I think the leap in coaching will make us a team that has a chance for the playoffs. Think this is similar to the Singletary to Harbaugh upgrade.

What makes it more realistic is our focus on improving the talent on defense as well.

I think Kelly got little to no support in PHI after Gamble left. That makes a huge difference. Just look at Harbaughs last year here. Think Kelly is capable of very good things if the front office supports him the right way.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by 49ers81:

The defense actually played pretty well at home. If you only looked at those statistics they would have been in something like the top five in scoring defense. The problem was they got torched on the road. Lots of unknowns going into this year given that they will be playing in a new system and that Kelly's offense supposedly will put more pressure on them to deliver. On the plus side, because of injuries a lot of guys got playing time last year that they might not have other wise like Tartt and Cromartie. Bethea coming back could be a help but there is a chance he might not even make the team. I think the biggest problem was lack of consistency and the lack of an effective pass rush which put added pressure on their secondary. Hopefully Buckner and Blair will help address some of that.

Would like to have seen them get an ILB to run with Bowman but maybe Hodges will step up and be better this year. He flashed a bit last year but his lack of recognition really hurt them a few times in those games where they were getting gashed for long runs. I think a lot of what will happen this year will depend on how effective Kelly's offense proves to be with the players currently on the roster and whether or not the changes made along the offensive line will be effective and which, if any, of the receivers will step up. I like the running backs and TE's we have and feel that if Gabbert wins the starting job that he will at least be able to execute the offense so I would think 5 to 8 wins is a possibility depending on how things fall. I certainly wouldn't count them out in their own division. They're obviously not going to win it but they could be competitive. The Rams will be starting a rookie QB and the Niners played the Cardinals tough in their second meeting so I don't think they will be the doormats that everyone seems to envision.

Really nice post!

Don't you guys think the Kelly offense puts less pressure on OUR defense considering our defense had to put up with our offense last year? I think our defense will improve by a lot because the offense will be better.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Don't you guys think the Kelly offense puts less pressure on OUR defense considering our defense had to put up with our offense last year? I think our defense will improve by a lot because the offense will be better.

If it works yes. That's the risk reward with chips system. But if your defense just defended a team on a 9 play drive and force a field goal. Then chip goes 3 and out in 40 seconds your defense is going to start to break. When the body is tired the mind is the first to go.

One poster made a great point about ys being lucky to win some of those ganes. We were more like a 3-13 team last year. With that said, if we are competitive each week and can pull out 6 wins, the season is a success in my eyes, so I vote for iver 5.5.

5 1/2 wins is about a perfect betting number. Most bad teams are right in that range, and the Niners are a bad football team.
RIght now, I'd day they squeak out 4 or 5 wins. I think worst case is 3-13, best case is 6-10,

Let's be real, good people, This is a bad football team with very little talent.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
5 1/2 wins is about a perfect betting number. Most bad teams are right in that range, and the Niners are a bad football team.
RIght now, I'd day they squeak out 4 or 5 wins. I think worst case is 3-13, best case is 6-10,

Let's be real, good people, This is a bad football team with very little talent.

Sorry, but I have to disagree with you there. While it may be true that they lack elite playmakers, guys like Dez Bryant, JJ Watt, or Rob Gronkowski, I think they have a pretty solid core of guys that can line up and contribute. Hyde, Draughn, and Harris all played hard when they were on the field. Staley and Kilgore are steady pros and Tiller and Brown looked they were coming on at the end of last year and Garnett could be an upgrade. TE's have some potential as well. I think the receiving corps remains the biggest unknown.

One defense you have Armstead, Dial, Purcell, Lynch, Tartt, and Ward all sort of coming into their own. Bowman, Bethea, and Reid to provide the experience and leadership and a whole slew of cornerbacks to choose from. Outside of Bowman the ILB's are a question and I don't think we will know what we have in Buckner and the repackaged Harold and Carradine until they take the field. Again, no absolute stars but how many teams can really claim to have more than a few of those at any give time.

Bill Walsh famously said that you can scheme for offense but you need talent on defense. If a couple of these untested receivers and defensive guys step up then hopefully they'll have enough talent on the field to be competitive.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by 49ers81:
The defense actually played pretty well at home. If you only looked at those statistics they would have been in something like the top five in scoring defense. The problem was they got torched on the road. Lots of unknowns going into this year given that they will be playing in a new system and that Kelly's offense supposedly will put more pressure on them to deliver. On the plus side, because of injuries a lot of guys got playing time last year that they might not have other wise like Tartt and Cromartie. Bethea coming back could be a help but there is a chance he might not even make the team. I think the biggest problem was lack of consistency and the lack of an effective pass rush which put added pressure on their secondary. Hopefully Buckner and Blair will help address some of that.

Would like to have seen them get an ILB to run with Bowman but maybe Hodges will step up and be better this year. He flashed a bit last year but his lack of recognition really hurt them a few times in those games where they were getting gashed for long runs. I think a lot of what will happen this year will depend on how effective Kelly's offense proves to be with the players currently on the roster and whether or not the changes made along the offensive line will be effective and which, if any, of the receivers will step up. I like the running backs and TE's we have and feel that if Gabbert wins the starting job that he will at least be able to execute the offense so I would think 5 to 8 wins is a possibility depending on how things fall. I certainly wouldn't count them out in their own division. They're obviously not going to win it but they could be competitive. The Rams will be starting a rookie QB and the Niners played the Cardinals tough in their second meeting so I don't think they will be the doormats that everyone seems to envision.

Really nice post!

Agree...nice post! Seems like most teams in the league are closer in talent level than may believe...losing so many elite players will hold the team back this year, but they should be a mid-level team if Kelly can get the offense to be consistently decent.

Quite frankly, anything less than 10 wins and playoff would be consider disappointment. Chip Kelly being genius and all. Less than 7 wins, Chip's honey moon will be so over. Less than 5 wins, we may be looking at the new HC. Boys are all saying the right thing about Chip right now, but then this time last year, boys were praising Tomsula too.

It seems unlikely to me that the team will win less than 3 games. I can see maybe 6 or 7 wins as doable. So I'm in the 3 - 7 wins range. But if Gabbert or Kap take to Kelly's offense exceptionally well - which I think is certainly possible but I'm far from counting on it - and a little luck drops their way then there is a possibility of maybe 9 or 10 wins, but that is a big "if".

Originally posted by GarnerValleyFan:
Quite frankly, anything less than 10 wins and playoff would be consider disappointment. Chip Kelly being genius and all. Less than 7 wins, Chip's honey moon will be so over. Less than 5 wins, we may be looking at the new HC. Boys are all saying the right thing about Chip right now, but then this time last year, boys were praising Tomsula too.