49ers 2016 win total over/under 5.5

Originally posted by BobS:

Originally posted by Dingo:
Some of you guys seem to be punch drunk. Last year 5-11, put down two losses to crap coaching and another 2 to a crap o-line = 9-7, playoffs.

The 49ers had one of the league's worst defenses last year, it was miracle to get 5 wins all things considered. If the rookies take a while to acclimate or don't make a quick impact combining that with the up tempo offense putting more pressure on the defense you could still end up with a 5 win team. No matter how much improved the offense is, it won't matter if the defense can't stop anybody.

delusional as always

Could someone that's projecting us to win more than 7 games explain your reasoning? I want to believe that, but I just don't know how. We went 5-11 last year, and we probably should have lost 2 or 3 of those wins. We lost Boone and probably Boldin and didn't do much at all in FA. Are you guys chocking up the additional victories to Chip Kelly?

Obviously he's an improvement over Tomsula, but I just don't see how 7+ wins is possible given that Kelly-coached teams need to have elite offenses. The defense is likely going to give up a lot of points purely due to the pace of the game. With the offense, as currently assembled, we are going to have a lot of 45 second 3 and outs, which is going to be a killer.

At max, I see us squeaking out 6 wins, maaaaybe 7 if things go our way. But for anything more than that, the stars would have to align - Gabbert would need to turn into a player, Buckner, Armstead, and Harold need to turn into studs. Smelter would need to become a great player, and somehow our offensive line would need to somehow become decent. If all of these things happen we can go 8-8, but the odds are slim to none.

Originally posted by Draftology:
Could someone that's projecting us to win more than 7 games explain your reasoning? I want to believe that, but I just don't know how. We went 5-11 last year, and we probably should have lost 2 or 3 of those wins. We lost Boone and probably Boldin and didn't do much at all in FA. Are you guys chocking up the additional victories to Chip Kelly?

Obviously he's an improvement over Tomsula, but I just don't see how 7+ wins is possible given that Kelly-coached teams need to have elite offenses. The defense is likely going to give up a lot of points purely due to the pace of the game. With the offense, as currently assembled, we are going to have a lot of 45 second 3 and outs, which is going to be a killer.

At max, I see us squeaking out 6 wins, maaaaybe 7 if things go our way. But for anything more than that, the stars would have to align - Gabbert would need to turn into a player, Buckner, Armstead, and Harold need to turn into studs. Smelter would need to become a great player, and somehow our offensive line would need to somehow become decent. If all of these things happen we can go 8-8, but the odds are slim to none.

Trying to find a formula to get to a certain number is futile. Being one of the youngest teams in the league any number of things could happen that might effect our final record. There's always surprise teams in the NFL that every "expert" in the world discounts prior to the season. We'll likely struggle, but who knows, there's a lot of unknown variables.

Originally posted by Pinion:

Trying to find a formula to get to a certain number is futile. Being one of the youngest teams in the league any number of things could happen that might effect our final record. There's always surprise teams in the NFL that every "expert" in the world discounts prior to the season. We'll likely struggle, but who knows, there's a lot of unknown variables.

I'm predicting 3 to 4 wins but that's just on my complete lack of faith in the QB position. But if Gabbert plays like a top 10 QB or Kap plays he did in 2013 then this team could really surprise people.

Originally posted by Pinion:

Originally posted by Draftology:
Could someone that's projecting us to win more than 7 games explain your reasoning? I want to believe that, but I just don't know how. We went 5-11 last year, and we probably should have lost 2 or 3 of those wins. We lost Boone and probably Boldin and didn't do much at all in FA. Are you guys chocking up the additional victories to Chip Kelly?

Obviously he's an improvement over Tomsula, but I just don't see how 7+ wins is possible given that Kelly-coached teams need to have elite offenses. The defense is likely going to give up a lot of points purely due to the pace of the game. With the offense, as currently assembled, we are going to have a lot of 45 second 3 and outs, which is going to be a killer.

At max, I see us squeaking out 6 wins, maaaaybe 7 if things go our way. But for anything more than that, the stars would have to align - Gabbert would need to turn into a player, Buckner, Armstead, and Harold need to turn into studs. Smelter would need to become a great player, and somehow our offensive line would need to somehow become decent. If all of these things happen we can go 8-8, but the odds are slim to none.

Trying to find a formula to get to a certain number is futile. Being one of the youngest teams in the league any number of things could happen that might effect our final record. There's always surprise teams in the NFL that every "expert" in the world discounts prior to the season. We'll likely struggle, but who knows, there's a lot of unknown variables.

I agree. In football the whole is greater than the some of its parts. However, you need to have some reasoning in projecting us to win 9 games. You can't just say "Who knows? There are always surprise teams. Why not us?" That's just blind optimism as opposed to actually having a logical reason for optimism.

Originally posted by Draftology:

Originally posted by Pinion:

Originally posted by Draftology:
Could someone that's projecting us to win more than 7 games explain your reasoning? I want to believe that, but I just don't know how. We went 5-11 last year, and we probably should have lost 2 or 3 of those wins. We lost Boone and probably Boldin and didn't do much at all in FA. Are you guys chocking up the additional victories to Chip Kelly?

Obviously he's an improvement over Tomsula, but I just don't see how 7+ wins is possible given that Kelly-coached teams need to have elite offenses. The defense is likely going to give up a lot of points purely due to the pace of the game. With the offense, as currently assembled, we are going to have a lot of 45 second 3 and outs, which is going to be a killer.

At max, I see us squeaking out 6 wins, maaaaybe 7 if things go our way. But for anything more than that, the stars would have to align - Gabbert would need to turn into a player, Buckner, Armstead, and Harold need to turn into studs. Smelter would need to become a great player, and somehow our offensive line would need to somehow become decent. If all of these things happen we can go 8-8, but the odds are slim to none.

Trying to find a formula to get to a certain number is futile. Being one of the youngest teams in the league any number of things could happen that might effect our final record. There's always surprise teams in the NFL that every "expert" in the world discounts prior to the season. We'll likely struggle, but who knows, there's a lot of unknown variables.

I agree. In football the whole is greater than the some of its parts. However, you need to have some reasoning in projecting us to win 9 games. You can't just say "Who knows? There are always surprise teams. Why not us?" That's just blind optimism as opposed to actually having a logical reason for optimism.

Well, maybe the problem is projecting then. I could create the universe that we get to 9 wins that is more than "why not us" reasoning. I could also create a universe that this team wins one game. I prefer to be optimistic, but I'm not married to the idea that this team will show improvement.

i think we could be at least 2 games better than last season. so OVER.

Wonder how much of the 5.5 is based on toughest schedule? Because we all know, the toughest or easiest schedules can easily end up being the reverse.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Originally posted by Pinion:
Trying to find a formula to get to a certain number is futile. Being one of the youngest teams in the league any number of things could happen that might effect our final record. There's always surprise teams in the NFL that every "expert" in the world discounts prior to the season. We'll likely struggle, but who knows, there's a lot of unknown variables.

I'm predicting 3 to 4 wins but that's just on my complete lack of faith in the QB position. But if Gabbert plays like a top 10 QB or Kap plays he did in 2013 then this team could really surprise people.

A lot hinges on the QB play. I could definitely envision a revival year for Kap. An improved offensive line and scheme tailored to his talents could net a positive return, especially if a couple of our unknown skill guys break out. I could also see a scenario where Gabbert has success under Kelly. I could also see either QB struggling. The one thing I know will be improved will be our defense. Our front 7 should look greatly improved with the addition of Buckner and the trajectory of Armstead.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Wonder how much of the 5.5 is based on toughest schedule? Because we all know, the toughest or easiest schedules can easily end up being the reverse.

Not in the NFC West.

Originally posted by Draftology:

Could someone that's projecting us to win more than 7 games explain your reasoning? I want to believe that, but I just don't know how. We went 5-11 last year, and we probably should have lost 2 or 3 of those wins. We lost Boone and probably Boldin and didn't do much at all in FA. Are you guys chocking up the additional victories to Chip Kelly?

Obviously he's an improvement over Tomsula, but I just don't see how 7+ wins is possible given that Kelly-coached teams need to have elite offenses. The defense is likely going to give up a lot of points purely due to the pace of the game. With the offense, as currently assembled, we are going to have a lot of 45 second 3 and outs, which is going to be a killer.

At max, I see us squeaking out 6 wins, maaaaybe 7 if things go our way. But for anything more than that, the stars would have to align - Gabbert would need to turn into a player, Buckner, Armstead, and Harold need to turn into studs. Smelter would need to become a great player, and somehow our offensive line would need to somehow become decent. If all of these things happen we can go 8-8, but the odds are slim to none.

BETTER COACHING!
We won 5 games with probably the worst coaching staff in the history of the NFL. I've seen better game planning from high school coaches than last year's coaches. Nobody wanted to coach under Tomsula last year and that's the reason why they took so long to fill up the coaching staff and we ended up filling it up with bottom of the barrel coaches. This year's coaching staff is already 10 times better than last years and will squeeze in an extra 3 or more wins than last year's staff.
OLine is also a lot better than last year with the signing of Beadles and drafting of Garnett. RT might be our weakest spot but T.Brown showed promising performances towards the end of last season. AD can suck a fat one tho. My prediction is we go 9-7 because of the tough division and schedule that we face this season.

Originally posted by 808niner4lyphe:

Originally posted by Draftology:
Could someone that's projecting us to win more than 7 games explain your reasoning? I want to believe that, but I just don't know how. We went 5-11 last year, and we probably should have lost 2 or 3 of those wins. We lost Boone and probably Boldin and didn't do much at all in FA. Are you guys chocking up the additional victories to Chip Kelly?

Obviously he's an improvement over Tomsula, but I just don't see how 7+ wins is possible given that Kelly-coached teams need to have elite offenses. The defense is likely going to give up a lot of points purely due to the pace of the game. With the offense, as currently assembled, we are going to have a lot of 45 second 3 and outs, which is going to be a killer.

At max, I see us squeaking out 6 wins, maaaaybe 7 if things go our way. But for anything more than that, the stars would have to align - Gabbert would need to turn into a player, Buckner, Armstead, and Harold need to turn into studs. Smelter would need to become a great player, and somehow our offensive line would need to somehow become decent. If all of these things happen we can go 8-8, but the odds are slim to none.

BETTER COACHING!
We won 5 games with probably the worst coaching staff in the history of the NFL. I've seen better game planning from high school coaches than last year's coaches. Nobody wanted to coach under Tomsula last year and that's the reason why they took so long to fill up the coaching staff and we ended up filling it up with bottom of the barrel coaches. This year's coaching staff is already 10 times better than last years and will squeeze in an extra 3 or more wins than last year's staff.
OLine is also a lot better than last year with the signing of Beadles and drafting of Garnett. RT might be our weakest spot but T.Brown showed promising performances towards the end of last season. AD can suck a fat one tho. My prediction is we go 9-7 because of the tough division and schedule that we face this season.

I think that is fair. However, me being the pessimist I am, this is how I look at it. While we went 5-11, but we were really a 2-14 or 3-13 quality team. And we can thank our talent and coaching for that. We lucked into a few victories, especially that Bears win which ended up costing us Jalen Ramsey. Making the jump from a 2-win quality team to 9-win quality would be huge, and I think would require more than just a coaching change. What may happen is improving to a 6-win quality team and lucking into 3 more wins. You just have to hope that luck is on our side.

Originally posted by NinerSickness:
Niners, Browns & Titans to fight over Myles Garret?

If Vegas is right and we pick in the top 3 there is no way we don't take a QB.

Originally posted by Draftology:

Originally posted by 808niner4lyphe:

Originally posted by Draftology:
Could someone that's projecting us to win more than 7 games explain your reasoning? I want to believe that, but I just don't know how. We went 5-11 last year, and we probably should have lost 2 or 3 of those wins. We lost Boone and probably Boldin and didn't do much at all in FA. Are you guys chocking up the additional victories to Chip Kelly?

Obviously he's an improvement over Tomsula, but I just don't see how 7+ wins is possible given that Kelly-coached teams need to have elite offenses. The defense is likely going to give up a lot of points purely due to the pace of the game. With the offense, as currently assembled, we are going to have a lot of 45 second 3 and outs, which is going to be a killer.

At max, I see us squeaking out 6 wins, maaaaybe 7 if things go our way. But for anything more than that, the stars would have to align - Gabbert would need to turn into a player, Buckner, Armstead, and Harold need to turn into studs. Smelter would need to become a great player, and somehow our offensive line would need to somehow become decent. If all of these things happen we can go 8-8, but the odds are slim to none.

BETTER COACHING!
We won 5 games with probably the worst coaching staff in the history of the NFL. I've seen better game planning from high school coaches than last year's coaches. Nobody wanted to coach under Tomsula last year and that's the reason why they took so long to fill up the coaching staff and we ended up filling it up with bottom of the barrel coaches. This year's coaching staff is already 10 times better than last years and will squeeze in an extra 3 or more wins than last year's staff.
OLine is also a lot better than last year with the signing of Beadles and drafting of Garnett. RT might be our weakest spot but T.Brown showed promising performances towards the end of last season. AD can suck a fat one tho. My prediction is we go 9-7 because of the tough division and schedule that we face this season.

I think that is fair. However, me being the pessimist I am, this is how I look at it. While we went 5-11, but we were really a 2-14 or 3-13 quality team. And we can thank our talent and coaching for that. We lucked into a few victories, especially that Bears win which ended up costing us Jalen Ramsey. Making the jump from a 2-win quality team to 9-win quality would be huge, and I think would require more than just a coaching change. What may happen is improving to a 6-win quality team and lucking into 3 more wins. You just have to hope that luck is on our side.

The Bears game and dont forget the last game vs the Rams those 2 games are losses we end up with Goff and Kap gets traded.

I cant see 7 games with our schedule but there are reasons to be optimistic for this season.
1. The Oline should be better. I think our lone FA acquisition and draft should fill some of the deficiencies.
2. Kelly may have been dumped in Philly but yes he is hands down a 10 times better coach than Tomsula and his assistants are more qualified
3. I think the DL has the potential to do some really good things in the run game and vs. the pass.
4. I think Kap is asked to do less and play to his strengths and has no expectations to carry the team.
5. Hyde is healthy
6. Our secondary has more depth.
7. Lynch has come on big and should have more help up front with Buckner and Armstead.

Still pessimistic on following:
1. Can any of our WRs step up so the team is less one dimensional.
2. There are so many young players.
3. QB position when you have 2 QBs you really have 0 Qbs
4. TEs some decent depth but not really one guy you can rely
5. The schedule looks brutal
6. Chip Kelly is know for his offense in a division where the best offenses get shut down week in week out
7. The defense is young, inexperienced and with the lack of offensive weapons will be on the field most of the game

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by BobS:

Originally posted by Dingo:
Some of you guys seem to be punch drunk. Last year 5-11, put down two losses to crap coaching and another 2 to a crap o-line = 9-7, playoffs.

The 49ers had one of the league's worst defenses last year, it was miracle to get 5 wins all things considered. If the rookies take a while to acclimate or don't make a quick impact combining that with the up tempo offense putting more pressure on the defense you could still end up with a 5 win team. No matter how much improved the offense is, it won't matter if the defense can't stop anybody.

delusional as always

Very intelligent counter point. Why do you let your disdain for my dislike of Kaepernick carryover into totally unrelated threads? That is pretty weak.