2012 vs. 2015 Rosters - Are we REALLY in much trouble at all personnel-wise?

Originally posted by MikeD:

Originally posted by VANiner:
A lot of media and general Webzone discussion has focused on the amount of turnover from our Superbowl squad from 2012 to the current roster. I have been defending the state of the team in the sense that Baalke had a plan in place and either sought timely replacements for players or already had the replacements waiting as depth on the squad. That said, I really hadn't looked at the starters from the 2012 roster position by position and compared them to our current projected starters. Here is a side by side comparison of the starters and a few noteworthy back-ups with some notes thrown in (Note: I bolded areas where I see us upgraded are having a new starter that is not a drop off from previous. I italicized positions where there is potential to have an upgrade, but time will tell:

2012 Offensive 2015 Projected
QB - Kaepernick QB - Kaepernick (Note: No change here and very well might have made significant strides this offseason)
RB1 - Gore RB1 - Hyde (Hyde was arguably the best RB in the draft last year and was specifically picked as Gore's replacement)
RB2 - Hunter RB2 - Bush (Reggie was brought in to bring back the screen and short passing game, which has been missing)
RB3 - James RB3 - Hunter (Our back-up from 2012 is now our number 3. Sounds good to me)
FB - Miller FB - Miller (Might be pushed by Millard in TC, but still a solid FB)
WR1 - Crabtree WR1 - Smith (Finally a deep threat as our primary / Crabtree never amounted to his potential with us)
WR2 - Moss WR-2 Boldin (Could argue AB is our number one / Much stronger over middle and true leader of the team)
TE - Davis TE - Davis (No change here, but hopefully Davis regains his 2012 form)
LT - Staley LT - Staley (No change on most important position on the OL)
RT - Davis RT - ?? (Only true hole that I see that needs to be determined in TC)
LG - Iupati LG - Thomas (He was drafted last year as a red shirt because Baalke knew Iupati would not be back)
RG - Boone RG - Boone (Could move out to tackle and make me feel better about the line as a whole)
C - Goodwin C - Kilgore (He was the backup in 2012 and was waiting in the wings - Martin could also push for this spot in TC)

2012 Defense 2015 Projected
RDE - Smith RDE - Dockett (Big loss with Justin, but Dockett is a seasoned vet and Smith was no longer in 2012 form)
LDE - McDonald LDE - Carradine/Dial (RayMac simply had to go and there is really not much drop here in my opinion)
NT - Sopagoa NT - Dorsey/Williams (Again, no drop off here. Really an upgrade)
ILB - Willis ILB - Wilhoite (You can't replace HOF talent, but Wilhoite was on the PC in 2012 and was a waiting replacement)
ILB - Bowman ILB - Bowman (All reports are that he is returning to form)
OLB - Smith OLB - Smith (Faster, stronger and unstoppable according to him...could be in for a big year)
OLB - Brooks OLB - Brooks/Lynch (Lynch might take this spot and make big strides this year)
FS - Goldson FS - Reid (Reid is a better player and much less of a liability. Only worry is the concussion issue)
SS - Whitner SS - Bethea (Pro Bowl year, better in coverage and less of a liability)
CB - Rogers CB - Brock (Would you really say you would rather have Rogers than a healthy Brock?)
CB - Brown CB - Wright/Johnson/Acker/Reaser (Excited to see who wins this battle. Again, is this a drop off?

P - Lee P - Pinion (Hated to see Lee go, but I'm not getting too worried over the punter. Pinion might be a find)
K - Akers K - Dawson (Dawson is better. Older and likely gone after this year, but still better)

When I look at this position by position, I cannot see how there is SO much negativity about this roster. In 2012, we were considered one of the , if not the most, talented rosters in the league. Turn over happens. I like what I see.

The biggest changes in my opinion are the coaching changes. This is the one thing I do not know about and we will have to wait until the results are shown on the field. I like what I am hearing so far, but time will tell. All in all, I feel pretty good with where this team is at roster-wise. Baalke did not miss a beat and has either sought worthy replacements or had the replacements waiting on the roster. That is a good GM if you ask me.

Because all the non 9er fans say the team is all Jim Harbaugh, but yet when he left Stanford, the team went to 1st place the next 3 years without him

Well done VANiner! Well done...excellent attempt.

Those (now retired) vets were in their primes as well in 2012 (Justin, Gore, Willis, etc.) but were shells of themselves the past two years hence why I believe we could actually see BETTER production from those positions (believe it or not) over last year b/c of the rotational depth and versatility we now have there: Gore was a one-dimensional runner who was beyond over-used; now we have youth, speed, unpredictability and versatility with Hyde/Davis/Hunter/Bush and a less predictable power-run scheme and an insertion of the zone blocking scheme with OL who fit that style much better (TBD). Willis - not hard to replicate his production on the field the past two years but nothing was better than a healthy Willis and Bowman in their primes though in 2012. That said, we should all go back and compare numbers to Bowman and Willis in 2012 and Bowman and Wilhoite at the end of this year. You might be surprised at the bottom stat line. Justin - obviously even a one-armed Justin the past two years is better than most starting RDE in the game but with the upside, youth, health, energy and committee of Dorsey/AA/Carradine, will we really see a drop off in production from his prime performance in 2012? Again, we should revisit at the end of the season and see how the collective group did. One player probably won't replace these HOF-like players when they took 100% of the snaps and were leaned on heavily to carry this team. Now it will be more of production-by-committee but there are a LOT of upsides to that as well.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by elguapo:
We may have had a plethora of pro bowl pinatas last year and finished 8-8 but let me tell you how much better the team would of been with all pro aldon smith, all pro bowman, all pro Willis, Dorsey and Williams, Brock, Kilgore and Anthony Davis, VD healthy, and so on. Easily wins against CHI ARIZ STL SD that's 12-4 and the bye week and the division.

So again, injuries was the reason as well as horrible OC and 2nd half adjustments. However if healthy, we would of probably been the top seed Despite the horrendous OC, clock management and 2nd half lack of adjustments.

Hard to argue that!

My thought is that if Bruce Arians can manage a winning season with backup QBs playing the majority of it, Tomsula can win with the roster we have.

Pretty much. He had an aggressive defensive game plan and even more aggressive offensive game plan and wasn't afraid to deviate from that even with a 9th string QB at the helm. I respect that. From what it sounds like on offense and defense for us, is that we're about to adopt a more balanced attack (far less vanilla and conservative) and I think that was a missing element in our team; games we could have easily won became way too close and nail-biters. We genuinely lacked the finisher/killer instinct mentality even when we clearly threw the right combinations of punches and just had to tip the boxer over for the official KO.

Originally posted by Dsoto87:

Originally posted by Youngone:

I like he lost but a 2012 Smith Vs a 2015 ACL repaired Dockett will be a big drop off. Losing Willis will be a big drop off. I think those two alone will put a big learning curve on our defense. But we have leaders, Bethea, bowman, reid. I think they'll get better as we go.

i think this offense can be better if Davis regains form but that's a lot to ask. Dude is gone be 31 I think. Big difference between 28 prime and 31 coming off a bad year. But Gates still manages to produce so who knows.

Not sure what you're trying to say with the first line about "like he lost" but why are you comparing 2012 Justin to today's Dockett? The real comparison is how much of a drop off it will be from 2014 Justin to ACL repaired Dockett.

Willis is most definitely a loss. Bowman and Willis side by side for years could have been a historically great tandem. But as long as Bowman comes back even 90%, he and Wilhoite together are good enough to win with. You don't absolutely need 2 all pro ILBs to win. We were just spoiled.

Whoops. Typo. I like the post. And I'm comparing 2012 cowboy to 2015 Dockett because that's what the post is about. Comparing 2012 to 2015. Am I wrong?

Originally posted by Geeked:

Originally posted by Born9erFan:
I don't see the reason to compare the defensive side of the ball with 2012. We were a top 5 defense last year with a depleted roster. The way I see it we are starting the season with a more talented defense (considering everyone is healthy) than what we played with last year (or at least a similar amount of talent).

Offensively, its tough to say because we have never been great, so comparing talent from previous years doesn't tell us much.

I think it really comes down to coaching and scheme. Is Mangini a big drop off from Fangio? Is Chryst any better than Roman?

In bold! You believe it's possible to be worse than HaRoman without being intentional? Seriously?

More importantly. Do you think Tomsula and Baalke will backstop a meathead that can't get their S straight until 20 seconds tick off the playclock?

No I actually think Chryst will be better (although we have had OC's that were much worse than Roman, so they are out there). My point was that the talent level seems to be a much more known quantity (and not as dire as some make it out to be) and that the biggest question is what the new coaching staff does with the talent.

I wouldn't be surprised if the offense is much better because Chryst is better than Roman and that the defense is worse because of a drop off from Fangio to Mangini.

Its gonna come down to the coaching. Harbaugh came in with a new start and his staff put the players in the right place at the right time. Can Tomsula and his staff do the same? Thats the BIG questions for me. The niners are still talented, no doubt at all. But can Chryst and Mangini game plan effectively. Can they outsmart the other teams.

players on the 2015 roster also have a chance to prove their worth, since Niners have a lot of cap room to sign big contracts to those who are deserving. Some rookies or those who have healed from injuries are ready to make their mark.

Originally posted by Baldie:
Its gonna come down to the coaching. Harbaugh came in with a new start and his staff put the players in the right place at the right time. Can Tomsula and his staff do the same? Thats the BIG questions for me. The niners are still talented, no doubt at all. But can Chryst and Mangini game plan effectively. Can they outsmart the other teams.

That's the bottom line for me...and personnel along the OL coupled with new scheme.

I want to see this coaching staff clearly out-coach another. Talent was never an issue here...hence the changes in coaching staff. Can this staff learn from the previous regime? If so, we're in for a real treat!

Originally posted by Born9erFan:
No I actually think Chryst will be better (although we have had OC's that were much worse than Roman, so they are out there). My point was that the talent level seems to be a much more known quantity (and not as dire as some make it out to be) and that the biggest question is what the new coaching staff does with the talent.

I wouldn't be surprised if the offense is much better because Chryst is better than Roman and that the defense is worse because of a drop off from Fangio to Mangini.

I definitely think Chryst will open things up alot more than Roman did. I don't think he was a supporter of keeping Kaep in the pocket anyway. As for the defense, Fangio didn't take chances and looks like Mangini will be taking chances. The Harbaugh niners played conservative and kept it close and did enough to win the game. I really think Tomsula's niners will take more chances.

Originally posted by Team49ers:
players on the 2015 roster also have a chance to prove their worth, since Niners have a lot of cap room to sign big contracts to those who are deserving. Some rookies or those who have healed from injuries are ready to make their mark.

Great point...LOTS of motivation for players such as Aldon, Boone, etc. as well as new blood looking to establish themselves. The camp battles will be epic!

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
The answer is your question is: Most likely we are in trouble personnel-wise. Three years ago, we had numerous guys who were Pro-Bowlers. Outside of Bowman, and maybe Stanley, I don't see a lot of guys.

Can some of the young guys play at a high level, and fill-in the gaps on where we lost valuable talent. Sure. Is it likely that a large cluster will? Call me a skeptic. We just haven't seen it yet.

Lot of holes that will need to be filled over the next few years. I see this team right now as a 6-10 team at best.

I see Bowman, Aldon, Bethea, Possibly Reid, Staley, maybe even Kap if this hard work pays off, Vern possibly(its a contract year), and Boldin all having probowl caliber years on the team. I still think there is a good amount of vets and some quality youth on this roster. I could see Hyde, Lynch, Dial, Tank, Kilgore, and/or Dontae johnson amongst a couple other all ascending to a high/above average level of play.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Baldie:
Its gonna come down to the coaching. Harbaugh came in with a new start and his staff put the players in the right place at the right time. Can Tomsula and his staff do the same? Thats the BIG questions for me. The niners are still talented, no doubt at all. But can Chryst and Mangini game plan effectively. Can they outsmart the other teams.

That's the bottom line for me...and personnel along the OL coupled with new scheme.

I want to see this coaching staff clearly out-coach another. Talent was never an issue here...hence the changes in coaching staff. Can this staff learn from the previous regime? If so, we're in for a real treat!

Das right!! No one is giving the niners a chance to even reach .500 let alone win the division. I hope thats enough motivation for Tomsula/Chryst/Mangini. I mean these 3 aren't new to the team, they were on the staff the past couple of years to. Aside from a couple starters that left/retired but probably balances out with some of the starters that were signed, the talent level has not changed.

And I'm sure Chryst was shot down when he had ideas in years past with Kaep, now he gets a chance to show the league what he can do. Boy, I hope he surprises everyone because thats what its going to take to have a successful season. With Kaep, Torrey, Boldin, Simpson, Vernon, Hyde, Ellington, Patton, Bush, etc....I will be shocked if this team can't score points when they want. Seattle's D is vulnerable, Brady showed that in the SB. Everyone should have that blueprint for next season.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Baldie:
Its gonna come down to the coaching. Harbaugh came in with a new start and his staff put the players in the right place at the right time. Can Tomsula and his staff do the same? Thats the BIG questions for me. The niners are still talented, no doubt at all. But can Chryst and Mangini game plan effectively. Can they outsmart the other teams.

That's the bottom line for me...and personnel along the OL coupled with new scheme.

I want to see this coaching staff clearly out-coach another. Talent was never an issue here...hence the changes in coaching staff. Can this staff learn from the previous regime? If so, we're in for a real treat!

I can't wait to see how much the offense can be so much more different than in the past. I'm a little weary about the oline, but man...there is potential for something awesome I hope...stretch the field with smith, open up the middle for VD or send him deep too, Bush on screens, Hyde crushing people up the middle... oh man...

There was a solid plan in place. Unfortuntately for us we got hit with unexpected losses. Willis retiring a few years earlier than expected. Borland retiring completely out of teh blue and then A Davis RT doing the same. Davis gives us an unexpected hole on the O-line at the critical RT position. This could have a big effect on our season. If Bowman comes back to form then it will help alleviate some of the loss of Willis and Borland.


We're just snake bit.

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
There was a solid plan in place. Unfortuntately for us we got hit with unexpected losses. Willis retiring a few years earlier than expected. Borland retiring completely out of teh blue and then A Davis RT doing the same. Davis gives us an unexpected hole on the O-line at the critical RT position. This could have a big effect on our season. If Bowman comes back to form then it will help alleviate some of the loss of Willis and Borland.


We're just snake bit.

it is certainly nice not to see the coaches and players set around feeling sorry for themselves. they seem very very committed to making haters and doubters eat their words.. oh f**k borland. and davis irritates me with the timing

It's not so much about "opening things up", as it is more about calling plays that gets our players into a Rhythm, and attacks the other teams weakness.

Last year was hard to watch because you could see that the offense was out of sync.