If he stays out of trouble will the 49ers pay to keep Aldon Smith? | Page 2

IHATELOWELLCOHN · 2015-05-09T22:51:44-07:00

They paid to keep Kaepernick but Colin is possibly a franchise QB and plays the most important position on a football team. This is Aldon Smith's contract year and the 49ers for obvious reasons have yet to extend him. There hasn't been a hint to them even discussing a possible contract extension. It's obvious Trent and co. want to see Aldon get through a full season and off season without getting into trouble. The problem is it's his walk year and the 49ers converted his fully guaranteed salary into non guaranteed money. His agent said that Aldon wanted to do this to prove to the 49er organization that he has his issues under control and that he's past his problems that led to the second lengthy suspension he and the team suffered through last year. I know we are all 49ers fans and we want Aldon to succeed but how many of you believe he really wanted this? Maybe it's a sign of good faith on Aldon's part but I really hope it hasn't led to hurt feelings which could possibly hurt future negotiations. I want to see Aldon in a 49ers uniform for years to come. Aldon is such a unique talent and when his head is right he's arguably one of the top two pure pass rushers in the NFL. For a long time the 49ers finding players who could put pressure on the QB consistently was like them trying to find WRs now, they couldn't draft one or sign one that was any good. So the question is, knowing that the 49ers don't get into bidding wars for their own players and Trent hates to use the franchise tag, can you see him in a 49ers uniform next year? Let's just assume that Aldon has a great year and stays out of trouble, can Marathe and Baalke get him to sign a contract before he hits FA? Let's just say Aldon has 15-16 sacks, which if he's right, is a number Aldon can reach easily. Is he worth $100 million? IMO yes, but how? Maybe someone who knows the salary cap could figure out what we would have to do to resign Aldon while simultaneously carrying Kaep's contract and yes let's assume Kaep will be back next year. Is he worth that kind of money after one year of staying out of trouble? Again I say yes. He's a premium talent who plays a premium position and premium talent gets paid premium money. Is he worth it if in limited action Eli Harold does a good job? Corey Lemonier did a good job his first year then disappeared last year and couldn't get off a block to save his life. Let's also assume Lynch plays at a high level this year and continues ascending. Does that make a difference to you? Lynch has had past character issues and a very questionable work ethic, are we sure he has turned a corner? If he has would you be willing to let Aldon walk then? Are you prepared for the possibility of him staying in the NFC or even worse ending up on a rival's roster? Would $100 mill even be enough after what Suh was paid by the Dolphins this year? Here is what I would do if I'm in the FO and given the go ahead to try and resign him. I wait until the end of the preseason. I see how he holds up, make sure he's healthy and then talk to the people around him and try to collect as much info as I can. The team sees him everyday and will have a better idea than fans or media on how much he has matured but as we all know nothing is ever guaranteed and just because he's doing well now doesn't mean it continues just as it isn't guaranteed with any player. However, some players do come with a little more risk than others. With that said if he's progressed enough that your comfortable with the progress he's made then I offer him a big incentive laden contract that you can easily get out of if something goes wrong. You do it after the preseason because one of the worst things that can happen is giving a player a huge deal and then having him lost for the season in a meaningless preseason game. You also want to put as much time between his last incident and his new extension as you can. It's more likely that he takes a huge incentive based deal before a season starts because on the player's end if he suffers a season ending injury he will be screwed heading into FA without a contract. The other reason is if he has a great season and reaches the end of it healthy his agent is going to want him to wait until the FA period begins before he signs. He won't accept that kind of deal once into FA. Another team or teams will offer some ridiculous guaranteed amount, more than we are probably willing to offer. We will have a value amount on Aldon and offer him that but we won't go back and forth with other teams in the picture. That's how bidding wars start and we have proven we won't engage in that kind of negotiation. On a side note the incentives or clauses I'm talking about are game and roster bonuses to ensure he is active and protect us in case he is suspended again. I'm not talking about a contract that screws him if he's injured. That would be my idea, however it looks like the 49ers will wait until after the season. I'm nervous doing it that way and I would hate to see him in another uniform next year. He's still so young and an impact player who I believe is due for another huge year. Now I throw the question out to you. If he has a good year and stays out of trouble do you think we bring him back? To the guys that know the cap, can we bring him back on a huge deal if Kaep is still on the team, without losing other quality players? Maybe some of you think if Harold shows enough this year and Lynch takes another step forward we don't need to spend the money on Aldon and you would rather sign a big name FA WR? I think you know how I feel but I will tell you again anyway. I believe their are a few premium positions on a football team that you have to pay for. Obviously number one is QB, the others are the OT position and DL because it starts with stopping the run. Along with the DL you have to have players on defense that can rush the passer and Trent believes you can never have enough of them, which is a philosophy I love and think anybody that knows football believes. Aldon is the best pass rusher on our team, and IMO the NFC. We haven't had a pass rushing threat like Aldon since the days of Fred Dean and then Charles Haley. He's still so young you would get good value out of the contract and I believe Aldon still has many productive double digit sack seasons ahead of him. He's also able to sack Wilson and get sacks in big games which is another thing I love about Aldon's game. I don't know if some of you remember Tim Harris? He played for the Packers then came to us. That guy had double digit sack seasons but most of them were in garbage time. He had an uncanny nack to what I call in football cherry pick his sacks. Lol. Tim Harris was our answer to when we traded Charles Haley to Dallas. He got a lot of sacks and filled up the stat sheet but was never the havoc wreaker and difference maker Haley was. How many more titles would we have won had we kept him? I think we would have won at least one more. Bill Walsh said it was one of the biggest mistakes we made and it was something we later admitted we should never have done. You see losing Aldon doesn't just weaken us but he could be another team's missing piece. If he's right do we go all in and make sure he's a 49er in 2016 and beyond?

May 10, 2015 at 9:03 AM

#16

Allx9er
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yes

May 10, 2015 at 9:28 AM

#17

IHATELOWELLCOHN
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Originally posted by AB81Rules:
It could become tricky, cap wise, if the 49ers franchise him, it would be around $11M or so to tag him, so he is a 49er for at least a few more seasons if no extension is reached. I would bet on the tag in 2016 over an extension if we don't have much cap room to accommidate his demands, whatever they may be. Not sure they will pay a 3-4 OLB $100M. The highest 3-4 OLB contract is Clay Matthews at like $60M total.

Here's the thing though the Claymaker's high in sacks is 13.5. Aldon's high in sacks is 19.5. His first season he had 14. I know Clay hasn't had the off the field stuff but Aldon is on a different level than Clay as far as a player. Plus Clay is always hurt. He's good to miss games every year you can count on it, last year was an anomaly. He also signed his deal, what 3 years ago? Suh broke open the vault this year mainly because the Dolphins are stupid. It's not just about Aldon here it's about what his agent thinks he could get him and if he has a big year his agent is going to want a massive deal. It's also important to remember Aldon will still only be 26 when he signs his new contract. How much of Clay's money and Suh's money guaranteed? Maybe we could get him for somewhere in the middle of those two deals.

May 10, 2015 at 10:37 AM

#18

btthepunk
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Posts: 23,304

Yes.

/thread

May 10, 2015 at 10:39 AM

#19

dtg_9er
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Lynch and Eli Harold may have a lot to say whether Aldon gets a huge contract offer from the 9ers. I'm hoping they can sign him sometime during the preseason so there isn't anything hanging over his head...but only if Baalke and Tomsula believe he has matured as a person...a big if!

May 10, 2015 at 10:44 AM

#20

Buchy
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I think we will, Brooks will obviously be gone one way or another but we will also be cheaper on the Dline in general and I think we will move away from keeping a lot of cap money at ILB. I think we will keep Bowman but our other ILB will be a serviceable, budget type of guy.

May 10, 2015 at 10:50 AM

#21

Jesu80ncleats
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Pay the man! no1curr about trees!

May 10, 2015 at 10:55 AM

#22

Karma
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I think it's pretty obvious that they are already planning his extension. They drafted Pinion to possibly save money by parting ways with Andy Lee. They drafted Harold as a replacement for Brooks, they drafted Thomas, Martin, Silberman, and Brown because to take over for Iupati and Boone since both of them are big money guards, and they signed ALL the UDFA WRs because Boldin will be too expensive after this year. All of this to save money for the one big extension to Aldon.

May 10, 2015 at 10:57 AM

#23

niners94
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Depends if Harold turns into a beast and if Lynch gets even better.

May 10, 2015 at 10:59 AM

#24

NYniner85
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I think this is one position that Baalke won't be cheap on....he values pass rushers more than any other position on the defensive side. If Baalke didn't think they would be able to resign him I doubt they would have put up with all the off-field issues.

I wouldn't be surprised if they resigned him during the season, that's how Baalke works. Also I think Smith wants to stay in SF or he wouldn't have agreed to take the restructured contract this year. I think I read somewhere that his goal is to get a extension with the team.

May 10, 2015 at 11:41 AM

#25

Pillbusta
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Originally posted by NYniner85:
I think this is one position that Baalke won't be cheap on....he values pass rushers more than any other position on the defensive side. If Baalke didn't think they would be able to resign him I doubt they would have put up with all the off-field issues.

I wouldn't be surprised if they resigned him during the season, that's how Baalke works. Also I think Smith wants to stay in SF or he wouldn't have agreed to take the restructured contract this year. I think I read somewhere that his goal is to get a extension with the team.

You're dead on! Passer and pass rusher and we hit on both in one draft. We got that settled then we've filled in the rest. TB is from the Bill Parcels school and Aldon is our LT if there can be such a thing so we're keeping him. It seems that Aldon needs his money from things we've seen and heard and personally I believe we should extend him right prior to the season starting or at a minimum during the bye week. Get him right now as he needs the cash and lock him up until 2021

May 10, 2015 at 11:56 AM

#26

FaTaL
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i cant see him getting a huge bonus

basically a deal where he gets paid as he plays

May 10, 2015 at 12:18 PM

#27

Afrikan
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I think they want to see how he does a whole season without Justin Smith....since Cowboy won't be with us from now on....at least for sure starting next year.

I'm not saying Aldon needs Justin...but I think they just want to see if Aldon will look like his old self if not better.

May 10, 2015 at 12:26 PM

#28

LifelongNiner
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Originally posted by AB81Rules:
It could become tricky, cap wise, if the 49ers franchise him, it would be around $11M or so to tag him, so he is a 49er for at least a few more seasons if no extension is reached. I would bet on the tag in 2016 over an extension if we don't have much cap room to accommidate his demands, whatever they may be. Not sure they will pay a 3-4 OLB $100M. The highest 3-4 OLB contract is Clay Matthews at like $60M total.

I respect you knowledge of the cap in general and also what the 49ers are likely to do. But if Aldon Smith is anything like how he was in 2011-2012, he's worth more than that. I'm not saying he should get an Ndamokong (sp?) Suh type of deal, but I'm not sure if 60 million does it. Maybe they can get him to sign a deal similar to the one Colin Kaepernick signed. If they can't, this may be the one time where they break their on rule in terms of how much they have slotted for a certain position. Having players like that can truly make a defense special in my opinion, much the same way that a certain type of QB can make an offense special.

I remember a few years ago when the Texans let Mario Williams walked, which seemed crazy at the time, but I understood their logic. Mario Williams is a great pass rusher. But if Mario Williams is say, Clyde Simmons, Aldon Smith is Reggie White. Even though we know historically, Reggie White left his team in free agency, I do not believe in letting those types of players walk.

May 10, 2015 at 1:16 PM

#29

AB81Rules
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Originally posted by IHATELOWELLCOHN:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
It could become tricky, cap wise, if the 49ers franchise him, it would be around $11M or so to tag him, so he is a 49er for at least a few more seasons if no extension is reached. I would bet on the tag in 2016 over an extension if we don't have much cap room to accommidate his demands, whatever they may be. Not sure they will pay a 3-4 OLB $100M. The highest 3-4 OLB contract is Clay Matthews at like $60M total.

Here's the thing though the Claymaker's high in sacks is 13.5. Aldon's high in sacks is 19.5. His first season he had 14. I know Clay hasn't had the off the field stuff but Aldon is on a different level than Clay as far as a player. Plus Clay is always hurt. He's good to miss games every year you can count on it, last year was an anomaly. He also signed his deal, what 3 years ago? Suh broke open the vault this year mainly because the Dolphins are stupid. It's not just about Aldon here it's about what his agent thinks he could get him and if he has a big year his agent is going to want a massive deal. It's also important to remember Aldon will still only be 26 when he signs his new contract. How much of Clay's money and Suh's money guaranteed? Maybe we could get him for somewhere in the middle of those two deals.

Clay got $20.05M fully guaranteed. Where as Kap got less than $13M fully guaranteed. Thing is with Baalke as GM, he won't go higher on fully guaranteed on a Pass Rusher over what he gave his hopeful Franchise QB. And if you have seen 49er deals, they don't give out a big amoun of guarantees in a deal, most are if said player is on the roster on April 1st, take for example Torrey Smith, reported $22M gtd, well only $8.75M is fully gtd, where he has his 2016-2018 base salaries gtd on April 1 of those dates, 2016-2017 is fully, $2.25M of his 2018 is gtd on April 1 2018.

It could change if Baalke isn't GM in 2016, but the chances of that aren't likely. So while I think they could give Aldon $20M+ gtd, it would be in a smaller sized bonus, likely $10M, and then base guarantees each year for a few years. They certainly won't do a Suh type deal, where he got $49M fully guaranteed, with like a $25M base salary next year. Its just not the 49er way.

May 10, 2015 at 1:35 PM

#30

SaksV
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Posts: 1,470

Yes. Aldon Smith is a phenom. You pay phenoms phenomenally. He's a Father, things are different now than they were for him two years ago. Pay him.