Offseason Post: Thoughts on the Draft... | Page 27

Marvin49 · 2015-05-04T09:56:56-07:00

Seemed like it was time. :) BTW, adding my link again here to the ESPN and NFL Network coverage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CWK_cXUoNY Before I get into the players, some thoughts on the draft strategy in general: So much has been made of the Niners not addressing their "needs". They lost a bunch of players and they needed immediate starters, right? Well I think it's pretty obvious that the perceived needs of the team differed greatly between the media and fans and the team itself. I mean, "OMG, they lost BOTH starting corners, they lost 2 LBs, Frank Gore, Justin Smith might retire and Iupati and Crabtree left as FAs!! The world is ending and the Niners need to draft and hit on every pick at those positions where they lost players!!!". Right? Wrong. That popular viewpoint that is earning the Niners horrible draft grades all over the country is based on a fallacy. Its based on the impression that the Niners desperately needed to find replacements for all of those lost free agents. The truth? In many cases, they already had. They are untested for sure and time will tell if they are adequate replacements, but outside of Borland, they didn't lose a single player they didn't EXPECT to lose this year or in the near future. Willis was something of a surprise, but they knew it was coming at some point and was a big reason they selected Borland in the first place. Lost Gore? Already drafted Hyde and Hunter. Lost Iupati? Already drafted Martin and Thomas. Lost Crabtree? Already drafted Patton and Ellington AND signed Torrey Smith. Lost BOTH starting Corners (not really true to begin with...Brock was a starter)? Drafted Dontae Johnson, Kenneth Acker, and Keith Reaser last year. All the complaining about Niners not taking immediate day 1 starters? Well, you are about to see why. They selected the above players KNOWING what was coming down the line. Would drafting a bunch of players at those positions with no guarantee that they are any better than the guys they took the last two years be the smart move what they have a whole NEW lost of players whom they may lose NEXT year. Tell me if these positions sound familiar... DE: Justin Smith retiring, Ray McDonald released. SS: Antoine Bethea is 30. OLB: Ahmad Brooks likely short for the Team. TE: Vernon Davis likely in his final year WR (and more specifically, big, strong, possession WR): Anquan Boldin possibly in final year OG: Alex Boone in final year of contract. Now look at those needs next year and compare them to the players they selected. Do ya see it? What I'm saying here is that the 49ers ARE drafting for positions of need. NEXT years need. That may drive some of you crazy, but you are failing to realize they've been doing this for a few years now and they ALREADY HAVE players they like who they drafted to fill the positions they EXPECTED to need help with this year. While people are all up in arms over drafting for future need, it IS the future now for those picks from years past. The frustration over this to me is just really short sighted and misses the entire point of their draft strategy from the beginning. Are the players they selected last year for this years need and this year for next years need adequate replacements? Well that's an entirely different conversation, but does taking a CB in the 4th round address a need when they already took 3 guys last year that they like? Is adding a FOURTH guy to that mix smarter than addressing needs down the road? One more thing. "Projects". I keep reading criticism of Niners taking projects. Well, 1) ALL college players are projects, 2) Just because a player is considered a project doesn't mean that he should not be taken fairly high if his ceiling is off the charts, 3) I'm reminded of a line from York about the coaches he wanted. "Teachers". That really stuck in my mind when Tomsula was hired along with his staff and they selected player after player with huge potential but with work to do. On to the picks themselves... 1) Arik Armstead: "Project". Off the charts athleticism. I have to admit to not being stoked about the pick. I knew it was a very real possibility in the weeks leading up to the draft but I fell into the "I want a sexy pick" trap at 15. Truth be told, some of Niners best picks in round 1 have NOT been "sexy" picks. When they focus on the big guys up front, good things tend to happen. Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati...all interior players drafting in first round. Staley was also a big project pick BTW. Peeps keep citing Kentwan Balmer. I think that's ludicrous. That's like saying Megatron was a bad pick because Detroit selected Mike Williams a previous year. Different players. Kid has off the charts tools and even though he's a project, he actually has more experience at the position than most other players would coming in. It won't be a Tank Carradine transition. Tank was an edge rusher learning to player a completely different style. Armstead while he needs refinement, already knows the position. 2) Jaquiski Tartt: I have to admit, this one was a major WTF moment. Denzel Perryman was sitting there and I really thought he's be the pick...and they take a safety? Really? Now tho, while I still wish they'd found a way to take Perryman, I really like Tartt. As I stated above, it doesn't fill an immediate need, but I positional need aside, I really like the player. Bruiser who can run. Watching highlights I really like the way he closes on ball carriers. Seems to accelerate through the player. This went from being a major WTF to one of my favorite picks. 3) Eli Harold: Again...OLB? Seems they are stacked there. Another case of really liking the player, but not understanding immediately what they were doing. I think this was the pick where I was kinda starting to realize that they were looking at next years needs, not this years. Pretty obvious in retrospect. You can never have enough pass rushers. Seems a little light and skinny to me, but seems a great value in that spot. 4) Blake Bell: Reminds me a bit of Brent Jones and Gronk. No idea if he's close to the player eventually that either of those guys are, but that's really what my initial thoughts were after the pick. 5) Mike Davis: Shocker. Baalke took a RB. It's only 7 years in a row now that they've done so. :) Like the player. I like that he's a load and not a scat back. They have enough of that with Bush and Hunter. I like that they have 2 bruisers now. 6) DeAndre Smelter: Love this pick. They didn't need to look for a speed WR anymore. With Simpson and Smith on the roster, they need to be looking at a guy to take over for Anquan down the road. This guy is perfect. big, strong, compact, faster than you'd expect, and HUGE hands. Tremendous athlete. LOVE this pick. 7) Bradley Pinion: I must confess another major WTF moment when I saw this pick, but again...kinda makes sense. I've read peeps trippin' on Niners selecting a punter, but it seems people quickly forget that Andy Lee was a 6th round pick himself. He's also 32 and making 2.5 mil. The age for a punter not really an issue, but the money might be. That's a big savings AND he addresses two other issues....HUGE leg on kickoffs (which Dawson doesn't have anymore) and long FG attempts. Dude is a freakin' 6'5" and 230 lb monster of a punter. I'm not sure I want to see Lee go as I think he's the best in the league, but this pick isn't nearly as preposterous as some peeps let on. 8) Ian Silberman: Around this point of the draft I must confess to having no clue what to say. Clearly OG is a need moving forward with Iupati gone and Boone likely to follow. 9) Trenton Brown: See above....tho 6'8", 355!?! I mean seriously? If nothing else that size piques my curiosity. 10) Rory "Busta" Anderson: Must admit I knew very little about him prior to the draft, but I'm sitting there watching his ESPN highlights and then listening to Kiper and McShay talk about him and I'm thinkin, "huh? He looks pretty damn good for a 7th round pick". I'm sure there are some holes there and they mentioned him not really being a blocker and bad some bad drops...but couldn't we say the same about Delanie Walker coming in? Just sayin'.

May 11, 2015 at 10:00 AM

#391

dtg_9er
Veteran
Posts: 33,204

Originally posted by Hopper:
Because of his pass rush ability Tank will be asked to replace Justin Smith.

Tank may start this year and if Justin comes back the two best DE will play...putting Tank on the left side. Down the road I could see Tank sliding over to the right side and Armstead on the left. Dockett's coming off surgery so I see him more as a role player...not necessarily a starter.

Edit: Keeping in mind the watch word--versatility--I would like to see more flipping and stunting this year. The line did this three years ago and kept the offensive lines guessing. I've never been a huge fan of the DL being static.

[ Edited by dtg_9er on May 11, 2015 at 10:02 AM ]

May 11, 2015 at 10:07 AM

#392

SFrush
Veteran
Posts: 5,401

Originally posted by Hopper:

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Doing his job well...as usual! Not perfect like every other GM in the NFL ( ) but one of the best!

Hopeful prediction:

Justin Smith comes back, will be replaced by Armstead in a year or two

Dockett replaces McDonald, will be replaced by Carradine soon

Bolden will be replaced by Smelter, Davis or one of the other WRs picked up this year

Gore being replaced by Hyde, with Davis added in for good measure and depth

Willis being replaced by Wilhoite, Wheeler, Moody...or?

Culliver replaced by Johnson (Acker)

Cox replaced by Ward (Reaser)

Bethea will be replaced by Tartt

A Smith can be replaced by Lynch or Harold in a year

Brooks can be replaced by Lynch

VD can be replaced by Bell, McDonald or Anderson down the line

The only position that does not have a credible backup is QB...and maybe Logan can work wonders with Gabbert.

Because of his pass rush ability Tank will be asked to replace Justin Smith.

Yeah Tank is more polished as a pass rusher than Armstead. Ideally he should be lining up next to Aldon.

May 11, 2015 at 5:00 PM

#393

pasodoc9er
Veteran
Posts: 21,040

Very good, Marvin. " They just don't happen to be positions they will need This year", and that is something many of us forget in the midst of the draft.

May 11, 2015 at 5:14 PM

#394

susweel
Hall of Nepal
Posts: 122,017

still cant't see how baalke didnt draft a ILB, its just mind bottling.

Willis and Borland retired and Bowman is coming back from a major injury. Whilihoite is backup material, just dont make sense no matter how you look at it.

May 11, 2015 at 7:14 PM

#395

brodiebluebanaszak
Veteran
Posts: 15,369

Yup. its obvious you could secomd guess this draft all year long. Small school ss at round two. Light olb at round three. Two te when we have carrier mcdonald and real te coach. No ilb? Really? Im glad trent is thinking one year ahead. But we play next year next year. Not in two years.

The apologists trying to see genius are way over reaching. Baalkogists.

Of course the picks could work out. But thats not the point.

May 11, 2015 at 7:28 PM

#396

cciowa
Veteran
Posts: 60,541

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Yup. its obvious you could secomd guess this draft all year long. Small school ss at round two. Light olb at round three. Two te when we have carrier mcdonald and real te coach. No ilb? Really? Im glad trent is thinking one year ahead. But we play next year next year. Not in two years.

The apologists trying to see genius are way over reaching. Baalkogists.

Of course the picks could work out. But thats not the point.

they like the players they have on the team right now. so what? just because you do not really means little as we move forward

May 11, 2015 at 10:23 PM

#397

flynhayn15
Veteran
Posts: 3,689

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by flynhayn15:
Obviously you aren't going to get a lot of "projections" to an offensive lineman. However, I was comparing them because of the physical size and skills, and them both being considered projects when we drafted them in the 1st round and both having their killer instinct questioned.

Also, he has been compared to Calais Campbell, but the scary thing is he is capable of becoming either depending on how much he wants it.

Im guessing you mean defensive linemen

Projections go out the window as soon as they get placed on a different team in a new scheme. Crabtree was a top 3 talent in the 2009 draft. But he didn't turn into that...I find it comical that people have declared him a bust because he wasn't "their" pick....I can compare him and many football plays to good and bad players as well. I'll at least wait to see what he can do on the field before proclaiming him Harris 2.0

No I meant offensive lineman. Kwame Harris was an offensive lineman and the reason not many are comparing Armstead to him is because of that fact but I think their boom/bust potential is similar among other things.

Like I said, there is no doubt that Tomsula can get every ounce of potential out of defensive lineman and he has proved that over and over. No defensive linemen on our team has had a better yet then their best under Tomsula so I am optimistic that Armstead will at least turn into a serviceable player.

May 11, 2015 at 11:20 PM

#398

flynhayn15
Veteran
Posts: 3,689

Originally posted by susweel:
still cant't see how baalke didnt draft a ILB, its just mind bottling.

Willis and Borland retired and Bowman is coming back from a major injury. Whilihoite is backup material, just dont make sense no matter how you look at it.

Besides Perryman, who else could we have drafted that would be able to beat out wilhoite or would be noticeably better then Mood? Also, in case of emergency we can always bring in Briggs.

There is a reason Perryman dropped to 48, he isn't a can't miss ILB by any means. And in a weak ILB draft, the top 3 were gone by our 2nd pick and I for one don't think any of them were worth a top 17 pick.

Let me ask you a question. If we had a huge need at ILB and Jaime Winborn, Dat Nguyen, and Dexter Coakley were available but so were Rodney Harrison, Kam Chancellor, or Tim McDonald. Who do you take? Hopefully, you don't pass on a great player for a good player that fills a need. In Baalke's mind, Tart has the potential to be great and Perrryman might not have as high of a ceiling. If that's the case, you gotta take Tart and oh BTW, another ILB doesn't go for another 40 picks after that.

[ Edited by flynhayn15 on May 11, 2015 at 11:30 PM ]

May 12, 2015 at 12:10 AM

#399

English
Moderator
Posts: 41,384

Originally posted by flynhayn15:
Besides Perryman, who else could we have drafted that would be able to beat out wilhoite or would be noticeably better then Mood? Also, in case of emergency we can always bring in Briggs.

There is a reason Perryman dropped to 48, he isn't a can't miss ILB by any means. And in a weak ILB draft, the top 3 were gone by our 2nd pick and I for one don't think any of them were worth a top 17 pick.

Let me ask you a question. If we had a huge need at ILB and Jaime Winborn, Dat Nguyen, and Dexter Coakley were available but so were Rodney Harrison, Kam Chancellor, or Tim McDonald. Who do you take? Hopefully, you don't pass on a great player for a good player that fills a need. In Baalke's mind, Tart has the potential to be great and Perrryman might not have as high of a ceiling. If that's the case, you gotta take Tart and oh BTW, another ILB doesn't go for another 40 picks after that.

Yes. Doing it the other way could be called the Reggie McGrew manoeuvre.

May 12, 2015 at 12:19 AM

#400

Pillbusta
Veteran
Posts: 25,622

Originally posted by flynhayn15:
Besides Perryman, who else could we have drafted that would be able to beat out wilhoite or would be noticeably better then Mood? Also, in case of emergency we can always bring in Briggs.

There is a reason Perryman dropped to 48, he isn't a can't miss ILB by any means. And in a weak ILB draft, the top 3 were gone by our 2nd pick and I for one don't think any of them were worth a top 17 pick.

Let me ask you a question. If we had a huge need at ILB and Jaime Winborn, Dat Nguyen, and Dexter Coakley were available but so were Rodney Harrison, Kam Chancellor, or Tim McDonald. Who do you take? Hopefully, you don't pass on a great player for a good player that fills a need. In Baalke's mind, Tart has the potential to be great and Perrryman might not have as high of a ceiling. If that's the case, you gotta take Tart and oh BTW, another ILB doesn't go for another 40 picks after that.

This post puts everything in perspective

May 12, 2015 at 2:55 AM

#401

brodiebluebanaszak
Veteran
Posts: 15,369

Seriously you imply tartt is mcdonald harrison chancellor. Not another jimmy ward zero impact player. I look at it as can we draft a guy to land higher than wheeler bishop on depth chart. Yeah i think so. I that kid was out there. We didnt need two te and a punter.

May 12, 2015 at 5:36 AM

#402

PhillyNiner
Veteran
Posts: 8,995

Originally posted by susweel:
still cant't see how baalke didnt draft a ILB, its just mind bottling.

Willis and Borland retired and Bowman is coming back from a major injury. Whilihoite is backup material, just dont make sense no matter how you look at it.

where do you store your bottled mind?

May 12, 2015 at 6:54 AM

#403

NYniner85
Veteran
Posts: 118,896

Originally posted by flynhayn15:
No I meant offensive lineman. Kwame Harris was an offensive lineman and the reason not many are comparing Armstead to him is because of that fact but I think their boom/bust potential is similar among other things.

Like I said, there is no doubt that Tomsula can get every ounce of potential out of defensive lineman and he has proved that over and over. No defensive linemen on our team has had a better yet then their best under Tomsula so I am optimistic that Armstead will at least turn into a serviceable player.

Oh I must have read it wrong

I think you could say that about a lot of unproven rookies, especially in the 1st...there's a boom or bust idea there because of where they were drafted.

If there's one position I have faith in it's DL

....overall I thought this draft was very underwhelming minus a couple prospects, we will have to see!

May 12, 2015 at 7:22 AM

#404

NYniner85
Veteran
Posts: 118,896

Originally posted by susweel:
still cant't see how baalke didnt draft a ILB, its just mind bottling.

Willis and Borland retired and Bowman is coming back from a major injury. Whilihoite is backup material, just dont make sense no matter how you look at it.

Because none of the ILB in this draft were anything special IMO...Wilhoite will be a the strong side LB (which he was good at) and Tartt will come in to help cover TEs and RBs in nickel packages, similar to Bucannon in Zona or a hybrid Chancellor-role.

I mean why is MW backup material? Yeah he isn't Willis or Bowman but they are two of the best ILBs in the game...he does his role just fine.

May 12, 2015 at 7:29 AM

#405

NYniner85
Veteran
Posts: 118,896

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Yup. its obvious you could secomd guess this draft all year long. Small school ss at round two. Light olb at round three. Two te when we have carrier mcdonald and real te coach. No ilb? Really? Im glad trent is thinking one year ahead. But we play next year next year. Not in two years.

The apologists trying to see genius are way over reaching. Baalkogists.

Of course the picks could work out. But thats not the point.

You need to focus on the 23 draft picks from the past two years then, they are the ones that will finally be taking on a bigger role...did everyone forget about them

that small school SS will be playing in nickle packages and that light OLB will get a full year with a NFL quality strength/conditioning coach (full time) and be ready to roll after we let Brooks go.

Bad teams have to force their rookie draft picks on the field right away, good teams have players in place and can let those "unproven" rookies time to adapted to the NFL....Baalke's been doing this for years not anything new