The Top-five most important FAs (G.Cohn)

Oakland-Niner · 2012-02-23T12:07:38-08:00

This kids getting a lot better. http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2012/02/inside-the-49ers/the-top-five-most-important-free-agents-for-the-49ers-to-re-sign/ "Trent Baalke reiterated this morning at the NFL Combine that the 49ers want to keep their guys in place, as in re-sign their free agents. Baalke said there's no priority list for who he wants to re-sign, which is baloney, probably. Let's try to guess that priority list. Which of the 49ers free agents are most important to resign? And in what order? Keep in mind, no free agent is so important that Baalke will overspend for him – that's not his style. Baalke most likely has a price point in mind for each free agent, and if demands exceed, he'll move on to the next option. Assuming the 49ers free agents all want to re-sign for fair contracts, here's how I'd rank them in order of importance if I were Baalke. 1. Carlos Rogers. Rogers is the most difficult 49er to replace because he covers slot receivers as well as any cornerback does in the NFL. The way the 49ers defensive scheme is set up, the outside cornerbacks have a much easier job than the slot guy does. The outside cornerbacks get safety help, so they play underneath coverage. That means they can let the wide receiver run past a little bit and beat them because a safety is in position to make a big hit or interception if the quarterback throws it "over the top" of the underneath coverage. Also, they get to play with inside leverage, meaning they line up slightly inside of the receiver, as in between then receiver and the quarterback. This cuts off the middle of the field and baits the wideout into running down the sideline towards the safeties. This scheme is set up to make the cornerback's job easier. He gets help from a safety and a sideline, and he's in position to intercept passes because he's playing underneath. Tarell Brown, who had never excelled in the NFL, excelled in this scheme this past season. But Rogers frequently covered slot receivers (like Victor Cruz) man-to-man with no safety help. He didn't get sideline help, either, because the slot receiver lines up in the middle of the field. So, Rogers job was extremely difficult, much more difficult than Brown's. Rogers is a master of slot coverage because he anticipates breaks, not merely react to them. In the second half of the NFC championship game, to finally neutralize Cruz he outsmarted him. Instead of playing him straight, Rogers lined up with leverage, guessing that Cruz would cut away from the leverage, as he had done in the first half with great success. Rogers guessed right. He'd line up inside of Cruz, then jump outside when Cruz chopped his feet (and vice versa, lining up outside and jumping inside). This worked. He perfectly anticipated Cruz's routes in the second half, and shut him down. Chris Culliver isn't ready to do that. Neither is Tramaine Brock or Tarell Brown. Rogers' ability to cover the best slot receivers one-on-one is one of the many things that makes the Niners' D great. If they lose Rogers, they'd have to start doubling the best slot receivers and counting on Culliver to lock down No. 1 wide receivers without safety help, like Darrelle Revis does, and Deion Sanders used to do. That's too much to ask from Culliver, which is why Rogers tops this list. 2. Alex Smith. He probably should be No. 1 just by virtue of being a quarterback. But, if he wants to be paid like a Pro-Bowler, or a top-ten QB, I bet Baalke tells him he's welcome to seek that money from other teams. As much as Harbaugh likes Smith, he's a very confident coach, and I'd guess he believes he can win with Colin Kaepernick or Scott Tolzien or even himself as the QB. Smith will come back to the Niners on the Niners' terms, or he won't come back at all. He has less negotiating leverage than Rogers, so that's why he's No. 2 on this list. 3. Dashon Goldson. He's third on this list only because there are no good replacement options. There are many free safeties that could thrive on the Niners D with that great pass rush, but none that could outperform Dashon Goldson in 2012. I'd be surprised if Baalke offered him much more than what he offered and Goldson turned down last offseason – 5 years, $25 million. If Goldson rejects that again, he'll probably get the franchise tag, as he should. 4. Ahmad Brooks. He's a better 3-4 outside linebacker than Goldson is a free safety, but the Niners can more easily replace Brooks. They view Aldon Smith as a three-down player in 2012, and they still have Parys Haralson under contract for one more season. He can play the strong OLB spot, Brooks' spot, on first and second down, set the edge and cover, and Baalke can draft a third down pass rusher who can develop into a three-down OLB and take Haralson's job in 2013. In 2012, Haralson and the rookie pass rusher should be able to nearly replicate Brooks' production. 5. Adam Snyder. He's a mediocre guard, but the Niners have no replacement for him on the roster. Their O-line performed much worse last season when Snyder wasn't playing, and because of that he has a good deal of negotiating leverage for a mediocre guard. Will he use it? If he does, he's probably a goner. Baalke let David Baas walk last offseason because he wanted more than Baalke thought he was worth. If Snyder walks, Baalke will probably replace him with another mediocre free agent guard. The next player I would put on this list is Ted Ginn Jr., but if I were Baalke I'd only resign him as a return man. I would replace him as a receiver. Baalke has to determine how much he'd pay for a return specialist, and that figure may not satisfy Ginn. What's your list?"

Feb 23, 2012 at 12:18 PM

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Wow, I couldn't disagree anymore.

Alex Smith - duh.
Ahmad Brooks - front 7 trumps the back end and this is a very rare SAM commodity
Carlos Rogers - 31 years old with Culliver/Brock in-training all last year and I'm sure we'll draft another and target another low-budget but high-producer in FA (healthy product of the front 7)
Adam Snyder - was there any question that he not only solidified the line instantly but helped take us deep into the playoffs?
Dashon Goldson - We already have a SS in the exact same mold and his name is Donte Whitner - who is signed LT. For this defense, we need a player with speed, range, a sure-tackler and one who can cover TE's. Goldson is great in the box playing down hill and for big hits/highlights but that's about it. Nobody benefited more from the front 7 play than him (even over Rogers/Whitner and even Brown).

And all of the ST guys are critical and equal in my eyes in coverage and returns.

[ Edited by NCommand on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:20 PM ]

Feb 23, 2012 at 12:18 PM

valrod33
Hall of Small
Posts: 138,118

Smith
Goldson
Rogers
Ginn
Snyder

Feb 23, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Youngb
Veteran
Posts: 1,257

That was a good read. In depth on the part about Carlos Rogers "making adjustments" in the 2nd half. You always hear the term, but never know what they mean 100 percent of the time. My list looks exactly like the one that was written.

Edit: List is the same except Snyder and Brooks switch spots.

[ Edited by Youngb on Feb 23, 2012 at 12:26 PM ]

Feb 23, 2012 at 12:28 PM

miked1978
Veteran
Posts: 12,584

People underestimate the value of Ginn. If he wasnt injured we are probably Super Bowl champs. Let that sink in for a moment.

It was just a couple years ago we all were b***hing and gnashing out teeth because we had no return guy. We finally get one and now the majority don't care if he comes back.

Feb 23, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Ninefan56
Member
Posts: 5,106

Originally posted by Youngb:
That was a good read. In depth on the part about Carlos Rogers "making adjustments" in the 2nd half. You always hear the term, but never know what they mean 100 percent of the time. My list looks exactly like the one that was written.

Edit: List is the same except Snyder and Brooks switch spots.

I think it would be easier to replace Snyder than Brooks. But we will soon find out the answer. I think Kilgor, Person, and Beeler will find a way into the picture. But if we can keep Snyder and Brooks, and Rogers it would be great to keep the continuity. But RG needs to be updated.

Feb 23, 2012 at 12:35 PM

miked1978
Veteran
Posts: 12,584

Originally posted by NCommand:
Wow, I couldn't disagree anymore.

Alex Smith - duh.
Ahmad Brooks - front 7 trumps the back end and this is a very rare SAM commodity
Carlos Rogers - 31 years old with Culliver/Brock in-training all last year and I'm sure we'll draft another and target another low-budget but high-producer in FA (healthy product of the front 7)
Adam Snyder - was there any question that he not only solidified the line instantly but helped take us deep into the playoffs?
Dashon Goldson - We already have a SS in the exact same mold and his name is Donte Whitner - who is signed LT. For this defense, we need a player with speed, range, a sure-tackler and one who can cover TE's. Goldson is great in the box playing down hill and for big hits/highlights but that's about it. Nobody benefited more from the front 7 play than him (even over Rogers/Whitner and even Brown).

And all of the ST guys are critical and equal in my eyes in coverage and returns.

I disagree. Goldson doesn't equal Whitner. Goldson is above average at coverage while Whitner is below average.

Feb 23, 2012 at 12:47 PM

80sbaby24
Member
Posts: 2,990

Carlos Rogers
Dashon Goldson
Adam Snyder
Ahmad Brooks
Alex Smith

Feb 23, 2012 at 12:50 PM

WillistheWall
Veteran
Posts: 22,848

Originally posted by 80sbaby24:
Carlos Rogers
Dashon Goldson
Adam Snyder
Ahmad Brooks
Alex Smith

I KNEW that's how your list would look

Feb 23, 2012 at 12:56 PM

lamontb
Veteran
Posts: 33,168

Originally posted by NCommand:
Wow, I couldn't disagree anymore.

Alex Smith - duh.
Ahmad Brooks - front 7 trumps the back end and this is a very rare SAM commodity
Carlos Rogers - 31 years old with Culliver/Brock in-training all last year and I'm sure we'll draft another and target another low-budget but high-producer in FA (healthy product of the front 7)
Adam Snyder - was there any question that he not only solidified the line instantly but helped take us deep into the playoffs?
Dashon Goldson - We already have a SS in the exact same mold and his name is Donte Whitner - who is signed LT. For this defense, we need a player with speed, range, a sure-tackler and one who can cover TE's. Goldson is great in the box playing down hill and for big hits/highlights but that's about it. Nobody benefited more from the front 7 play than him (even over Rogers/Whitner and even Brown).

And all of the ST guys are critical and equal in my eyes in coverage and returns.

This except i would put Goldson above Synder

Originally posted by miked1978:
People underestimate the value of Ginn. If he wasnt injured we are probably Super Bowl champs. Let that sink in for a moment.

It was just a couple years ago we all were b***hing and gnashing out teeth because we had no return guy. We finally get one and now the majority don't care if he comes back.

Nobody is undervaluing him it's just that he brings nothing else to the game. So of course every down players are going to be viewed as being more important.

Feb 23, 2012 at 12:58 PM

#10

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by miked1978:
I disagree. Goldson doesn't equal Whitner. Goldson is above average at coverage while Whitner is below average.

They are essentially the same player...Goldson doesn't even cover TE's (even with his height). And when you look at team needs, I'd rather have Goldson over Whitner (barely) but Goldson fled and we signed Whitner instead...Goldson came back. But we still have the same need. A safety with excellent range, closing speed, who doesn't have to camp out 30 yards deep, who takes WAY better angles or get caught flat-footed, a S who can FINALLY help cover over the top esp. on sideline routes, etc. He's a good player but we were destroyed in the middle of the field all year even with lots of underneath coverage with Willis/Boman (all year long).

PS: This is a cool topic as we ALL have differing views so far. I can't imagine what the FO meetings are like with coaches pitching in their thoughts as well. These are tough decisions!

[ Edited by NCommand on Feb 23, 2012 at 1:01 PM ]

Feb 23, 2012 at 1:02 PM

#11

9erred
Veteran
Posts: 4,195

I think Baalke meant to say we have offered contracts to all of our players, the numbers have not changed. The only player to accept our initial terms was Alex Boone. The rest we are millions of dollars a year apart, and we will not overpay for any player, any player I repeat.

The list is not of importance, the 9ers will not overpay for any player, every ball player is replaceable. (paraphrasing.) Baalke said NFL football is a business so they will be losing players.

So it comes down to what players love Harbaugh and company and the niners enought to sign before FA begins.

My answer

1. Alex Smith

No one else, they all will test FA with Rogers being the surprise Tag.

Feb 23, 2012 at 1:05 PM

#12

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by WillistheWall:

Originally posted by 80sbaby24:
Carlos Rogers
Dashon Goldson
Adam Snyder
Ahmad Brooks
Alex Smith

I KNEW that's how your list would look

LOL. Any list that has a CB over a starting QB is laughable.

Feb 23, 2012 at 1:18 PM

#13

dj43
Moderator
Posts: 38,284

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by WillistheWall:

Originally posted by 80sbaby24:
Carlos Rogers
Dashon Goldson
Adam Snyder
Ahmad Brooks
Alex Smith

I KNEW that's how your list would look

LOL. Any list that has a CB over a starting QB is laughable.

Some things are better left ignored.

Feb 23, 2012 at 1:24 PM

#14

Oakland-Niner
Member
Posts: 24,062

Originally posted by 9erred:
I think Baalke meant to say we have offered contracts to all of our players, the numbers have not changed. The only player to accept our initial terms was Alex Boone. The rest we are millions of dollars a year apart, and we will not overpay for any player, any player I repeat.

The list is not of importance, the 9ers will not overpay for any player, every ball player is replaceable. (paraphrasing.) Baalke said NFL football is a business so they will be losing players.

So it comes down to what players love Harbaugh and company and the niners enought to sign before FA begins.

My answer

1. Alex Smith

No one else, they all will test FA with Rogers being the surprise Tag.

I really like this response...