The Top-five most important FAs (G.Cohn) | Page 5

Oakland-Niner · 2012-02-23T12:07:38-08:00

This kids getting a lot better. http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2012/02/inside-the-49ers/the-top-five-most-important-free-agents-for-the-49ers-to-re-sign/ "Trent Baalke reiterated this morning at the NFL Combine that the 49ers want to keep their guys in place, as in re-sign their free agents. Baalke said there's no priority list for who he wants to re-sign, which is baloney, probably. Let's try to guess that priority list. Which of the 49ers free agents are most important to resign? And in what order? Keep in mind, no free agent is so important that Baalke will overspend for him – that's not his style. Baalke most likely has a price point in mind for each free agent, and if demands exceed, he'll move on to the next option. Assuming the 49ers free agents all want to re-sign for fair contracts, here's how I'd rank them in order of importance if I were Baalke. 1. Carlos Rogers. Rogers is the most difficult 49er to replace because he covers slot receivers as well as any cornerback does in the NFL. The way the 49ers defensive scheme is set up, the outside cornerbacks have a much easier job than the slot guy does. The outside cornerbacks get safety help, so they play underneath coverage. That means they can let the wide receiver run past a little bit and beat them because a safety is in position to make a big hit or interception if the quarterback throws it "over the top" of the underneath coverage. Also, they get to play with inside leverage, meaning they line up slightly inside of the receiver, as in between then receiver and the quarterback. This cuts off the middle of the field and baits the wideout into running down the sideline towards the safeties. This scheme is set up to make the cornerback's job easier. He gets help from a safety and a sideline, and he's in position to intercept passes because he's playing underneath. Tarell Brown, who had never excelled in the NFL, excelled in this scheme this past season. But Rogers frequently covered slot receivers (like Victor Cruz) man-to-man with no safety help. He didn't get sideline help, either, because the slot receiver lines up in the middle of the field. So, Rogers job was extremely difficult, much more difficult than Brown's. Rogers is a master of slot coverage because he anticipates breaks, not merely react to them. In the second half of the NFC championship game, to finally neutralize Cruz he outsmarted him. Instead of playing him straight, Rogers lined up with leverage, guessing that Cruz would cut away from the leverage, as he had done in the first half with great success. Rogers guessed right. He'd line up inside of Cruz, then jump outside when Cruz chopped his feet (and vice versa, lining up outside and jumping inside). This worked. He perfectly anticipated Cruz's routes in the second half, and shut him down. Chris Culliver isn't ready to do that. Neither is Tramaine Brock or Tarell Brown. Rogers' ability to cover the best slot receivers one-on-one is one of the many things that makes the Niners' D great. If they lose Rogers, they'd have to start doubling the best slot receivers and counting on Culliver to lock down No. 1 wide receivers without safety help, like Darrelle Revis does, and Deion Sanders used to do. That's too much to ask from Culliver, which is why Rogers tops this list. 2. Alex Smith. He probably should be No. 1 just by virtue of being a quarterback. But, if he wants to be paid like a Pro-Bowler, or a top-ten QB, I bet Baalke tells him he's welcome to seek that money from other teams. As much as Harbaugh likes Smith, he's a very confident coach, and I'd guess he believes he can win with Colin Kaepernick or Scott Tolzien or even himself as the QB. Smith will come back to the Niners on the Niners' terms, or he won't come back at all. He has less negotiating leverage than Rogers, so that's why he's No. 2 on this list. 3. Dashon Goldson. He's third on this list only because there are no good replacement options. There are many free safeties that could thrive on the Niners D with that great pass rush, but none that could outperform Dashon Goldson in 2012. I'd be surprised if Baalke offered him much more than what he offered and Goldson turned down last offseason – 5 years, $25 million. If Goldson rejects that again, he'll probably get the franchise tag, as he should. 4. Ahmad Brooks. He's a better 3-4 outside linebacker than Goldson is a free safety, but the Niners can more easily replace Brooks. They view Aldon Smith as a three-down player in 2012, and they still have Parys Haralson under contract for one more season. He can play the strong OLB spot, Brooks' spot, on first and second down, set the edge and cover, and Baalke can draft a third down pass rusher who can develop into a three-down OLB and take Haralson's job in 2013. In 2012, Haralson and the rookie pass rusher should be able to nearly replicate Brooks' production. 5. Adam Snyder. He's a mediocre guard, but the Niners have no replacement for him on the roster. Their O-line performed much worse last season when Snyder wasn't playing, and because of that he has a good deal of negotiating leverage for a mediocre guard. Will he use it? If he does, he's probably a goner. Baalke let David Baas walk last offseason because he wanted more than Baalke thought he was worth. If Snyder walks, Baalke will probably replace him with another mediocre free agent guard. The next player I would put on this list is Ted Ginn Jr., but if I were Baalke I'd only resign him as a return man. I would replace him as a receiver. Baalke has to determine how much he'd pay for a return specialist, and that figure may not satisfy Ginn. What's your list?"

Feb 25, 2012 at 10:34 AM

#61

ninersrule4
Veteran
Posts: 22,568

Goldson is #1 for me. I love the tandem at the safety position we have. Very physical and they set our Ds attitude. Goldson can cover well too. If it came down between him and Carlosr I'd take Goldson. Anyone remember how terrible our pass D was with out Goldson?? I do

Feb 25, 2012 at 12:40 PM

#62

SanDiego49er
Veteran
Posts: 52,301

Originally posted by ninersrule4:
Goldson is #1 for me. I love the tandem at the safety position we have. Very physical and they set our Ds attitude. Goldson can cover well too. If it came down between him and Carlosr I'd take Goldson. Anyone remember how terrible our pass D was with out Goldson?? I do

Yes I do. But the WZers don't apparently. 80 yard bombs down the middle all day....

See Dallas game....

Our pass D was horrific without Goldson in the lineup. With him it was very respectable to good all year. He cleans up a lot. Messed up coverages by CB's even. He intercepts balls left and right and hits like a hammer. He's not that replaceable like a lot of WZers seem to think.

Feb 25, 2012 at 1:28 PM

#63

Oakland-Niner
Member
Posts: 24,062

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by ninersrule4:
Goldson is #1 for me. I love the tandem at the safety position we have. Very physical and they set our Ds attitude. Goldson can cover well too. If it came down between him and Carlosr I'd take Goldson. Anyone remember how terrible our pass D was with out Goldson?? I do

Yes I do. But the WZers don't apparently. 80 yard bombs down the middle all day.... See Dallas game.... Our pass D was horrific without Goldson in the lineup. With him it was very respectable to good all year. He cleans up a lot. Messed up coverages by CB's even. He intercepts balls left and right and hits like a hammer. He's not that replaceable like a lot of WZers seem to think.

The problem is nobody wants a guy thats trying to bankrupt us. Rogers is probably harder to replace. I think Goldson is good, but not elite. I love his playing style, but its not irreplacable in my opinion. Rogers would be much more difficult. I dont think Rogers body is in decline. The dude is 30. He probably has at least 3 more very productive years.

Feb 27, 2012 at 8:07 PM

#64

bleeds9ersredandgold
Veteran
Posts: 1,192

gotta be

brooks
smith
goldson
rodgers
synder

Feb 27, 2012 at 8:36 PM

#65

OtisDriftwood
Veteran
Posts: 1,146

Originally posted by miked1978:
People underestimate the value of Ginn. If he wasnt injured we are probably Super Bowl champs. Let that sink in for a moment.

It was just a couple years ago we all were b***hing and gnashing out teeth because we had no return guy. We finally get one and now the majority don't care if he comes back.

yeah well we needed him healthy.

Feb 28, 2012 at 11:01 AM

#66

CorvaNinerFan
Veteran
Posts: 10,448

Agree on Alex, Goldson, Rogers, Brooks...although we can replace Ahmad if need be. Aldon Smith will be a 3-down player at one OLB, and we have Haralson for one more season while we break in a newby...someone like Irving or any of quite a bunch who should be able to handle the job. Much as I like Snyder's versatility, we need to upgrade RG. Several mocks I saw had us taking top C Peter Konz (Wisc). At first, I scratched my head trying to understand the pick. One of the mocksters put it pretty well...Goodwin will be 34 this season, and it's time to groom his replacement, plus Konz can also slide over and play RG in the interim. We really don't know how Person and Kilgore fit into the OL scheme yet. Both guys are versatile, meaning they should be able to play most OL positions. Still, the chance to get one of the top OL in the country may be worth it. All of that could mean Snyder may be replaceable.

Feb 28, 2012 at 11:58 AM

#67

Joecool
Veteran
Posts: 70,984

Originally posted by Joecool:
I agree with the importance of Rogers. The main point is how easy are each one of those players to replace. And we have young CBs where Rogers' leadership would be vital.

Goldson will be very difficult to replace. Our scheme is all about the Safeties and their speed. Goldson can cover a lot of ground and has a lot of speed, size, and ability to dislodge the ball. Not sure why anyone doesn't consider him very valuable. He and Rodgers were tops in the league in INTs.

Alex Smith didn't have a high production year that would raise his value to implacable. The biggest factor of his importance being low is the fact that teams are NOT going to chase him if it comes down to money in Free Agency. He will be easy to sign.

Snyder is similar to Alex. They are solid but not difficult to find replacements or teams won't match prices.

Brooks: 3-4 strong side LB is not difficult to replace. Brooks has speed and explosion but his 1st and 2nd down responsibility can be replaced with Parys and we can draft a young talent to develop for 3rd downs only.

Well damn. Looks as if the coaches see Brooks taking a larger pass rushing role next season.

Feb 28, 2012 at 6:17 PM

#68

dtg_9er
Veteran
Posts: 33,204

Originally posted by CorvaNinerFan:
Agree on Alex, Goldson, Rogers, Brooks...although we can replace Ahmad if need be. Aldon Smith will be a 3-down player at one OLB, and we have Haralson for one more season while we break in a newby...someone like Irving or any of quite a bunch who should be able to handle the job. Much as I like Snyder's versatility, we need to upgrade RG. Several mocks I saw had us taking top C Peter Konz (Wisc). At first, I scratched my head trying to understand the pick. One of the mocksters put it pretty well...Goodwin will be 34 this season, and it's time to groom his replacement, plus Konz can also slide over and play RG in the interim. We really don't know how Person and Kilgore fit into the OL scheme yet. Both guys are versatile, meaning they should be able to play most OL positions. Still, the chance to get one of the top OL in the country may be worth it. All of that could mean Snyder may be replaceable.

I actually have liked the Konz idea! If the niners could firm up the middle of the line they would be better in both the run game and in pass protection. Konz replacing Goodwin in a year or so and Kilgore coming in at RG would make a feisty line.

[ Edited by dtg_9er on Feb 28, 2012 at 6:19 PM ]