Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by glorydayz:

Originally posted by NCommand:
The QB room has DEFINITELY improved. Really excited!

Yes sir!

My hope is that Trey "Baby Kap" Lance is everything we hope he is.

Quest for 6!

The Kap comparisons is exactly why I didn't want anything to do with Trey originally. If he's anything like him we are f**ked…again

Originally posted by Jack49ers84:

Originally posted by glorydayz:

Originally posted by NCommand:
The QB room has DEFINITELY improved. Really excited!

Yes sir!

My hope is that Trey "Baby Kap" Lance is everything we hope he is.

Quest for 6!

Dude, let Trey play a single game first before we start comparing him to former Niner greats.

Kap is not a former Niner great lol. I guess RGIII is a former Washington football team great by this logic

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:
Kap is not a former Niner great lol. I guess RGIII is a former Washington football team great by this logic

that's the joke.

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by Jack49ers84:

Originally posted by glorydayz:

Originally posted by NCommand:
The QB room has DEFINITELY improved. Really excited!

Yes sir!

My hope is that Trey "Baby Kap" Lance is everything we hope he is.

Quest for 6!

Dude, let Trey play a single game first before we start comparing him to former Niner greats.

Kap is not a former Niner great lol. I guess RGIII is a former Washington football team great by this logic

How many Super Bowls did RGIII go to?

The kid is getting me jacked.

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by Jack49ers84:

Originally posted by glorydayz:

Originally posted by NCommand:
The QB room has DEFINITELY improved. Really excited!

Yes sir!

My hope is that Trey "Baby Kap" Lance is everything we hope he is.

Quest for 6!

Dude, let Trey play a single game first before we start comparing him to former Niner greats.

Kap is not a former Niner great lol. I guess RGIII is a former Washington football team great by this logic

How many Super Bowls did RGIII go to?

silly logic. How many all pros,pro bowls, potential hofers did RGIII play with? The 2012 Niners were already elite before Kap took over. I give him credit for what he did when he took over, but getting to a super bowl is a team effort imagine what RGIII would've looked like under center with the Harbaugh Niners

Originally posted by dhp318:

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:
Kap is not a former Niner great lol. I guess RGIII is a former Washington football team great by this logic

that's the joke.

Gotcha

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by Jack49ers84:

Originally posted by glorydayz:

Originally posted by NCommand:
The QB room has DEFINITELY improved. Really excited!

Yes sir!

My hope is that Trey "Baby Kap" Lance is everything we hope he is.

Quest for 6!

Dude, let Trey play a single game first before we start comparing him to former Niner greats.

Kap is not a former Niner great lol. I guess RGIII is a former Washington football team great by this logic

How many Super Bowls did RGIII go to?

silly logic. How many all pros,pro bowls, potential hofers did RGIII play with? The 2012 Niners were already elite before Kap took over. I give him credit for what he did when he took over, but getting to a super bowl is a team effort

I mean the same could be applied to the bad times too. Kap had a lot of great moments with us and I appreciate those memories, so I could see why someone might hold him in high esteem.

Trey isn't that similar to him though.

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by Jack49ers84:

Originally posted by glorydayz:

Originally posted by NCommand:
The QB room has DEFINITELY improved. Really excited!

Yes sir!

My hope is that Trey "Baby Kap" Lance is everything we hope he is.

Quest for 6!

Dude, let Trey play a single game first before we start comparing him to former Niner greats.

Kap is not a former Niner great lol. I guess RGIII is a former Washington football team great by this logic

How many Super Bowls did RGIII go to?

silly logic. How many all pros,pro bowls, potential hofers did RGIII play with? The 2012 Niners were already elite before Kap took over. I give him credit for what he did when he took over, but getting to a super bowl is a team effort

I mean the same could be applied to the bad times too. Kap had a lot of great moments with us and I appreciate those memories, so I could see why someone might hold him in high esteem.

Trey isn't that similar to him though.

Except after Kaps 2012 run, Harbaugh gave him the keys to the offense and he got exposed by the Seahawks & Colts, pretty badly might I add. Didn't take long for Harbs to change the offense to have it run through Gore again while Kap was demoted to game manager for the rest of the season. I get it those games where he torched the Bears in his first NFL start, destroying the Packers defense and leading the comeback against Atlanta in the 2nd half of 2012 were awesome, but it was pretty much downhill for him after the super bowl.

Back to the real topic. Let's hope Trey is more like Randle Cunningham and Pat Mahomes than Krap

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by Jack49ers84:

Originally posted by glorydayz:

Originally posted by NCommand:
The QB room has DEFINITELY improved. Really excited!

Yes sir!

My hope is that Trey "Baby Kap" Lance is everything we hope he is.

Quest for 6!

Dude, let Trey play a single game first before we start comparing him to former Niner greats.

Kap is not a former Niner great lol. I guess RGIII is a former Washington football team great by this logic

How many Super Bowls did RGIII go to?

silly logic. How many all pros,pro bowls, potential hofers did RGIII play with? The 2012 Niners were already elite before Kap took over. I give him credit for what he did when he took over, but getting to a super bowl is a team effort

I mean the same could be applied to the bad times too. Kap had a lot of great moments with us and I appreciate those memories, so I could see why someone might hold him in high esteem.

Trey isn't that similar to him though.

Except after Kaps 2012 run, Harbaugh gave him the keys to the offense and he got exposed by the Seahawks & Colts, pretty badly might I add. Didn't take long for Harbs to change the offense to have it run through Gore again while Kap was demoted to game manager for the rest of the season. I get it those games where he torched the Bears in his first NFL start, destroying the Packers defense and leading the comeback against Atlanta in the 2nd half of 2012 were awesome, but it was pretty much downhill for him after the super bowl.

Back to the real topic. Let's hope Trey is more like Randle Cunningham and Pat Mahomes than Krap

God no. Not Randle Cunningham. That guy was a quitter. And certainly not Kaepernick who was just a one trick pony. Let's just hope that Trey becomes the best Trey Lance he can be.

This is great.

Originally posted by 49ers81:

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by Jack49ers84:

Originally posted by glorydayz:

Originally posted by NCommand:
The QB room has DEFINITELY improved. Really excited!

Yes sir!

My hope is that Trey "Baby Kap" Lance is everything we hope he is.

Quest for 6!

Dude, let Trey play a single game first before we start comparing him to former Niner greats.

Kap is not a former Niner great lol. I guess RGIII is a former Washington football team great by this logic

How many Super Bowls did RGIII go to?

silly logic. How many all pros,pro bowls, potential hofers did RGIII play with? The 2012 Niners were already elite before Kap took over. I give him credit for what he did when he took over, but getting to a super bowl is a team effort

I mean the same could be applied to the bad times too. Kap had a lot of great moments with us and I appreciate those memories, so I could see why someone might hold him in high esteem.

Trey isn't that similar to him though.

Except after Kaps 2012 run, Harbaugh gave him the keys to the offense and he got exposed by the Seahawks & Colts, pretty badly might I add. Didn't take long for Harbs to change the offense to have it run through Gore again while Kap was demoted to game manager for the rest of the season. I get it those games where he torched the Bears in his first NFL start, destroying the Packers defense and leading the comeback against Atlanta in the 2nd half of 2012 were awesome, but it was pretty much downhill for him after the super bowl.

Back to the real topic. Let's hope Trey is more like Randle Cunningham and Pat Mahomes than Krap

God no. Not Randle Cunningham. That guy was a quitter. And certainly not Kaepernick who was just a one trick pony. Let's just hope that Trey becomes the best Trey Lance he can be.

Cunningham was one missed field goal away from taking the Vikings to a Super Bowl. Coming back from hiatus helped him figure it out. Philly did him no favors with both Buddy Ryan and Rich Kotite's insistence that Randall just go out there without any game plan.

Originally posted by glorydayz:
Yes sir!

My hope is that Trey "Baby Kap" Lance is everything we hope he is.

Quest for 6!

Please. Trey is articulate, comfortable in his own skin and 100% focused on football.

Also, at this point "Quest for 6" is a jinx.

Originally posted by 808niner4lyphe:

Originally posted by glorydayz:
Yes sir!

My hope is that Trey "Baby Kap" Lance is everything we hope he is.

Quest for 6!

Stop f**king calling him "Baby Kap". Lance is nothing like Kap. Lance is a better thrower, more talented, humble with elite potential. Kap was a stiffer Lamar Jackson who can run but can't throw for s**t, who also got figured out in his second full season then went ahead and seek attention for getting benched, his potential was nowhere near elite also.

Kap and Lamar are no scrubs...One lead his team to the SB (with over 300yrds passing) and the other is a league MVP. I love Trey and hope he can have a season like Kap to take the niners to the SB or Dominate the league like Lamar and get the MVP....

Originally posted by a49erfan77:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Shanahan's offense was downfield in Cleveland and Washington, too. And also your "analytics" comment doesn't hold a lot of weight.

First, the Football Outsiders analysis everyone uses defines a successful run as one that gets 45% of the yards required for a first down. That's nonsense. A successful run is any run that would yield first downs if you ran every play, and that means all you need is >3 1/3 yards (or generally, anything more than 33.3333...% of the way to the first down). Thus, the ENTIRE ANALYSIS is flawed.

Moreover, the reason a strong running game helps a QB is the third and short situations it gives. The fact that it keeps you out of full drop back and read passes, and the fact that it ALLOWS you to run play-action DUE to the short yardage to move the chains. That is, you can't run play-action well on 3rd and 10, but you sure can on 3rd and 4 or less. An elite running game affords you that opportunity.

And of course, play-action itself makes quarterbacking easier, because there are very few plays which have simpler reads than the play-action game (especially the boot game). But again, you can't run play-action consistently if you're behind the chains, unless you're doing it on first down. And THAT is why Jimmy was so fortunate to have an ELITE run game helping him. It allowed for Shanahan to call a bunch of play-action plays, which is more or less the only pass plays other than one read plays that he's actually good at.

So yeah, Jimmy having an elite running game made his life WAY easier, and it is completely asinine to say it didn't. Did it make play-action more successful? Directly, no. But the "analytics" doesn't consider the fact that running play-action MORE is better for a QB, and you can't run play-action MORE if you're facing a bunch of 2nd and 3rd and 10s. And if you have a bad running game, you're going to be facing a lot of 2nd and 3rd and 10s.

From FootballOutsiders:
Success Rate (running backs): A measure of running back consistency based on the percentage of carries where the player gains 40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down.

The article itself that I was referring to specifically said 45%, not 40%.

And yeah, it's still an arbitrary, nonsense definition.

The biggest error in the analysis is, however (once again), the fact that previous rushing is NOT what determines whether or not a play-action will be successful. What determines whether or not a play-action pass will be successful is if the defense really thinks the play will be a run, and DOWN AND DISTANCE are FAR more important than previous running history.

As you can see here, Football Outsiders also analyzed down and distance for play-action, and it was — as I said in my previous post, and as I'm saying here — the most important tell for whether or not a PA pass will be successful:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/situational-play-action-passing-nfl

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Defenses will not believe a PA pass is really a run fake if you're running PA on third and long, or other downs where it is clear that the run game would not be advantageous to the offense. Which means if you're constantly in 3rd and long, PA is not going to be successful.

But where you (and they) miss the mark is here: what part of football plays one of the biggest roles in how often you are in second or third and long?

The success of the run game.

When you're getting a lot of third and short or second less than 10, play-action is most successful. And that happens when the run game is a real threat. It is not the only time play-action is successful, of course. First downs are also highly successful for play-action. Run success plays an important role in later down play-action, however, because it allows you to be in those 2nd/3rd down and reasonable distances in the first place.

Conclusion: Everyone gets the First and 10s. That's your gimmie down for play-action. But only teams with a good run game consistently get the other downs where play-action is successful. (unless those teams have a Hall of Fame QB that is great no matter what down and distance it is, and who can have success with play-action even when the defense knows that a pass is coming)

It's 40% on first down(4 yards), because you can't track 33% (3-1/3 yards) in football. I've never seen 2nd and 6-2/3 yards to go.

The article says 45%, not 40%.

A successful run is any run that would yield first downs if you ran every play.

By this logic, a 13 yard run play on 3rd and 20 is a success!

Here we are discussing an average run, not particular instances. Hence why in poker, the correct play is based on pot odds, not whether what you do would win one particular hand or another. Correct play is based on the long term success of the strategy, all other things being equal. I stand by my assertion that their definition of a successful run is nonsense and completely arbitrary.

But again, average run success is not directly relevant. What is relevant is down and distance, and the frequency of opportunities to be in a down and distance favorable to play-action does depend on run success.

Play-action success is, once again, determined in part by whether or not a defense thinks the play is a run. And whether a defense thinks a play is a run is more tied to down and distance and tendencies than the recent history of your run attack. HOWEVER, whether or not you are in a down and distance that is conducive to successful play-action, and how frequently you find yourself in a down and distance conducive to successful play-action, is dependent in part upon your run game.

In 2020, teams ran the ball 31% of the time on 2nd and 10+.

Did they run PLAY-ACTION a lot on 2nd and 10+? Because that's the only thing relevant to what you have bolded in my comment.

Even if you filter down to the worst 10 rushing teams, it's 28%.

Again, completely irrelevant, because the part of my post that you bolded is about play-action, not runs.

I think your ENTIRE ANALYSIS if flawed.

Good for you. Their analysis doesn't tell us much about anything, because it didn't even consider what's important in a play-action pass: whether or not the defense believes the play is a run.

And again, it is down and distance, and tendencies, that are what matters here. And, again, where run game success comes into play is in giving opportunities to be in down and distance conducive to success with play-action.

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Based on your response, I am not sure you quite realized what I was saying. What I am saying is that a good run game keeps you in 2nd and 3rd downs that are reasonable, and being in those down situations is what helps your play-action game (along with being in first down, which again, everyone gets at least once per drive).