Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by NCommand:
So much discussion still over a guy who was never going to get a true shot here after the broken ankle.

It is what it is.

Agreed

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
He's basically sol for the 49ers. If he gets a shot elsewhere, I don't doubt that he'll improve.

Look, based on his experience level, he does NOT look horrible. This narrative is nothing but asshat hater talk. But he's not going to get that experience he needs.

I think that's the truth, unfortunately. He's not gonna get that experience that he needs to actually improve.

total mismanagement of him and the draft process. I wanted fields but would he ever gotten that YR+ to develop? I think kyle would have forced him to stay in the pocket and that would have killed him all the same.

I agree. He looks on par with his level of experience. I hope he finds success one day, I don't wish for anyone to fail.

I wanted Fields too but it's moot now.

I'm not sold on Fields

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
So much discussion still over a guy who was never going to get a true shot here after the broken ankle.

It is what it is.

Agreed

He was going to get another shot all the way up to the second Seahawks game, that's when the tide changed apparently.

Welcome to the Pro's where it's not fair it's business.

Originally posted by paulk205:
I have avoided getting into these dung-flinging matches of (all) the QB threads, but for me it's very obvious by now.

At least half (possibly even more) of early 1st round QBs don't pan out for the team which drafted them. This is becoming worse in the rookie salary cap era when it's cheaper for a team to punt (sorry, Britishism, I mean "to gamble") on a rookie QB, without sunk costs considerations like with the proverbial Sam Bradford contract. Now it's cheaper to just toss aside the young QB if he doesn't immediately produce. Terrible in terms of labour welfare, but you guys are American and don't think of these things

I make it 46 QBs drafted since (and including) Alex Smith, who was our previous high drafted/internet flamewar causing QB, and before Lance. 10 are either superstars, or led their team to a championship, or won an MVP. I've included three recent names (Allen, Jackson, Burrow) who haven't done any of that but are "looking good": You may think that 1-2 of these names "suck" but it doesn't really change the proportion. About 1 in 4 (at best) 1st round picks will become "franchise QBs" (I hate this stupid term, but I'll go along)

Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow

10 more are solid pros/got into the pro bowl consistently/had an impressive year before being derailed (Griffin, obviously). A murky category (does Goff really belong here?) but I tried to be charitable. Again, some recent names (Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert) can move up to the star category, but who knows at the moment? I'm not a prophet. Lets' call it another 1 in 4 (at best) chance that the QB will prove decent for a couple of years... or for someone else.

Smith, Cutler, Griffin, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Goff, Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert

26 (so, over 50%) didn't pan out. Some were famous busts (Russell, Manziel, Weeden etc), some were unlucky/didn't get a fair shot/were "overdrafted" (whatever that means). Again, you may disagree with some names (e.g. Vince Young who was good for 1 year, or Mariota who's a solid pro, or Love who is still too young), but the gist remains: you have a 1 in 2 chance (if you are lucky) that the "franchise QB" you thought you'd be drafting won't even be a solid pro. A total bust is about 1 in 4 chance, perhaps more.

Campbell, Young, Leinart, Russell, Quinn, Sanchez, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Weeden, Manuel, Bortles, Manziel, Winston, Mariota, Wentz, Trubisky, Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Haskins, Tagovailoa, Love

Some of these "don't pan outs" are unlucky. They get injured and by the time they're back the team has moved on. Some "are not given a fair chance", perhaps because of a coaching change. Some never adjust to the pros. Some should never have been drafted that high (Weeden, Tebow, Manziel, Rosen are the obvious names here). Some just suck (Russell, Leinart). It happens.

Lance has been injured, through no fault of his own. He was perhaps overdrafted, through no fault of his own. The team traded 3 1st rounders to move up for him, through no fault of his own. Another QB took his place after he got injured, through no fault of his own. I feel for him, but at present all he is displaying for us is:

A strong arm. A nice professional attitude. That's it.

He was drafted high after an extravagant trade. Irrelevant. He *might* be athletic and a dual threat QB. Hasn't shown it yet. He's a hard worker. Good for him. I said he's a nice person by all accounts. But this is sadly also irrelevant.

I want the kid to succeed. If he does, we all win. But it's year 3, and he still seems like a raw rookie. There are only 17 games in the regular season, and each one counts even more now that the 1st round bye is so tough to get. The team can't afford to "be fair" to him, give him the chance he deserves, find out what he can do, etc. He needs to produce NOW. So far this seems unlikely. It's sad, but there it is. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear I won't be.

Apologies for the very long post.

Great post.

Originally posted by JoseCortez:

Originally posted by paulk205:
I have avoided getting into these dung-flinging matches of (all) the QB threads, but for me it's very obvious by now.

At least half (possibly even more) of early 1st round QBs don't pan out for the team which drafted them. This is becoming worse in the rookie salary cap era when it's cheaper for a team to punt (sorry, Britishism, I mean "to gamble") on a rookie QB, without sunk costs considerations like with the proverbial Sam Bradford contract. Now it's cheaper to just toss aside the young QB if he doesn't immediately produce. Terrible in terms of labour welfare, but you guys are American and don't think of these things

I make it 46 QBs drafted since (and including) Alex Smith, who was our previous high drafted/internet flamewar causing QB, and before Lance. 10 are either superstars, or led their team to a championship, or won an MVP. I've included three recent names (Allen, Jackson, Burrow) who haven't done any of that but are "looking good": You may think that 1-2 of these names "suck" but it doesn't really change the proportion. About 1 in 4 (at best) 1st round picks will become "franchise QBs" (I hate this stupid term, but I'll go along)

Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow

10 more are solid pros/got into the pro bowl consistently/had an impressive year before being derailed (Griffin, obviously). A murky category (does Goff really belong here?) but I tried to be charitable. Again, some recent names (Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert) can move up to the star category, but who knows at the moment? I'm not a prophet. Lets' call it another 1 in 4 (at best) chance that the QB will prove decent for a couple of years... or for someone else.

Smith, Cutler, Griffin, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Goff, Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert

26 (so, over 50%) didn't pan out. Some were famous busts (Russell, Manziel, Weeden etc), some were unlucky/didn't get a fair shot/were "overdrafted" (whatever that means). Again, you may disagree with some names (e.g. Vince Young who was good for 1 year, or Mariota who's a solid pro, or Love who is still too young), but the gist remains: you have a 1 in 2 chance (if you are lucky) that the "franchise QB" you thought you'd be drafting won't even be a solid pro. A total bust is about 1 in 4 chance, perhaps more.

Campbell, Young, Leinart, Russell, Quinn, Sanchez, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Weeden, Manuel, Bortles, Manziel, Winston, Mariota, Wentz, Trubisky, Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Haskins, Tagovailoa, Love

Some of these "don't pan outs" are unlucky. They get injured and by the time they're back the team has moved on. Some "are not given a fair chance", perhaps because of a coaching change. Some never adjust to the pros. Some should never have been drafted that high (Weeden, Tebow, Manziel, Rosen are the obvious names here). Some just suck (Russell, Leinart). It happens.

Lance has been injured, through no fault of his own. He was perhaps overdrafted, through no fault of his own. The team traded 3 1st rounders to move up for him, through no fault of his own. Another QB took his place after he got injured, through no fault of his own. I feel for him, but at present all he is displaying for us is:

A strong arm. A nice professional attitude. That's it.

He was drafted high after an extravagant trade. Irrelevant. He *might* be athletic and a dual threat QB. Hasn't shown it yet. He's a hard worker. Good for him. I said he's a nice person by all accounts. But this is sadly also irrelevant.

I want the kid to succeed. If he does, we all win. But it's year 3, and he still seems like a raw rookie. There are only 17 games in the regular season, and each one counts even more now that the 1st round bye is so tough to get. The team can't afford to "be fair" to him, give him the chance he deserves, find out what he can do, etc. He needs to produce NOW. So far this seems unlikely. It's sad, but there it is. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear I won't be.

Apologies for the very long post.

Great post.

Just wish there was a summary at the end :)

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

He's basically sol for the 49ers. If he gets a shot elsewhere, I don't doubt that he'll improve.

Look, based on his experience level, he does NOT look horrible. This narrative is nothing but asshat hater talk. But he's not going to get that experience he needs.

I think that's the truth, unfortunately. He's not gonna get that experience that he needs to actually improve.

total mismanagement of him and the draft process. I wanted fields but would he ever gotten that YR+ to develop? I think kyle would have forced him to stay in the pocket and that would have killed him all the same.

I agree. He looks on par with his level of experience. I hope he finds success one day, I don't wish for anyone to fail.

I wanted Fields too but it's moot now.

I'm not sold on Fields

That's another thing, he may not have necessarily been much better either. We had no shot at Lawrence, and as it stands now, none of the other QBs in the 1st round of that class have stood out. Shoot, I don't think anyone else from the entire draft class has.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
asshat hater talk.

Thank you for the courteous tone.

I said before and I'll say it again. I like the kid because he seems like a genuinely nice person who tries hard and doesn't undermine his teammates. I also am a fan of the team, so if he proves me wrong so much the better. I get to eat crow in a random internet forum, the team get a great player, and therefore have a better chance to win. I'll take this trade any time.

The reason I put in all the draft statistics is to show that it is actually not a failure of character by Lance if he fails here, nor a total brainfart by the team who picked him. He got injured, someone else stepped in. It happens. In fact, it happens to EVERYBODY, most of the time. Draw enough lots (and the draft happens every year) and you too end up holding up the short straw, despite 5 SBs and bucketloads of HOFers in your history. That's the problem with probabilities as high as 0.5 and annual draws. The team had basically a coin flip chance of this working out even a little. They picked heads. It looks as if it it is coming up tails. Possibly.

What these statistics also show is that the correct strategy by the team is to take a decision this year. For whatever reason, bad luck, injuries, wrong place for him, "overdrafting", whatever, if (and it's still an "if", though worryingly less so) he is still playing rookie level ball in Year 3 on a team that is shooting for the championship, then the correct strategy is to cut him loose. Perhaps he finds success elsewhere, perhaps he doesn't. I hope he does. I still hope he turns it around for us. But I don't KNOW. Only the team know, or think they do. They have the information, and the the plan. Since we're all fans of the team, let's hope this plan is the right one. Keeping him simply because they drafted him so high, for all that draft capital is not just irrelevant - it's sunk costs fallacy. And forget "potential". His paid like a #3 QB pick. There is no unlimited time left in his rookie contract for him to develop that potential, AND win his job back, AND show he is the long term answer some time next year. This team is built to win NOW. Can he help this team NOW, even as insurance to Purdy? If yes, keep him. If no, let him try elsewhere.

Originally posted by Shorteous:
Just wish there was a summary at the end :)

I did apologise.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
That's another thing, he may not have necessarily been much better either. We had no shot at Lawrence, and as it stands now, none of the other QBs in the 1st round of that class have stood out. Shoot, I don't think anyone else from the entire draft class has.

That's just it, sometimes when it's your turn to take a shot theres no winning targets available.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
So much discussion still over a guy who was never going to get a true shot here after the broken ankle.

It is what it is.

Agreed

And yet here we all are still discussing. 😅

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
So much discussion still over a guy who was never going to get a true shot here after the broken ankle.

It is what it is.

Agreed

poor Trey, he just never got a fair chance.... that makes so much sense that Shanny would shaft him, after investing all that draft capital and time into TL, its the only logical outcome

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
So much discussion still over a guy who was never going to get a true shot here after the broken ankle.

It is what it is.

Agreed

And yet here we all are still discussing. 😅

That entire group of five, grrr. All that bickering and four of them over drafted. Fields maybe okay but I just don't care for the guy too much attitude wise.

That entire draft board of early QBs. Wow.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
So much discussion still over a guy who was never going to get a true shot here after the broken ankle.

It is what it is.

Agreed

With this teams history he will be playing at some point this year.

Originally posted by 9erson3:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
So much discussion still over a guy who was never going to get a true shot here after the broken ankle.

It is what it is.

Agreed

And yet here we all are still discussing. 😅

That entire group of five, grrr. All that bickering and four of them over drafted. Fields maybe okay but I just don't care for the guy too much attitude wise.

That entire draft board of early QBs. Wow.

I know what NC would have rather spent those 3x 1st's on.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

He's basically sol for the 49ers. If he gets a shot elsewhere, I don't doubt that he'll improve.

Look, based on his experience level, he does NOT look horrible. This narrative is nothing but asshat hater talk. But he's not going to get that experience he needs.

I think that's the truth, unfortunately. He's not gonna get that experience that he needs to actually improve.

total mismanagement of him and the draft process. I wanted fields but would he ever gotten that YR+ to develop? I think kyle would have forced him to stay in the pocket and that would have killed him all the same.

I agree. He looks on par with his level of experience. I hope he finds success one day, I don't wish for anyone to fail.

I wanted Fields too but it's moot now.

Should have passed on both and waited for Brock.