Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by paulk205:
I have avoided getting into these dung-flinging matches of (all) the QB threads, but for me it's very obvious by now.

At least half (possibly even more) of early 1st round QBs don't pan out for the team which drafted them. This is becoming worse in the rookie salary cap era when it's cheaper for a team to punt (sorry, Britishism, I mean "to gamble") on a rookie QB, without sunk costs considerations like with the proverbial Sam Bradford contract. Now it's cheaper to just toss aside the young QB if he doesn't immediately produce. Terrible in terms of labour welfare, but you guys are American and don't think of these things

I make it 46 QBs drafted since (and including) Alex Smith, who was our previous high drafted/internet flamewar causing QB, and before Lance. 10 are either superstars, or led their team to a championship, or won an MVP. I've included three recent names (Allen, Jackson, Burrow) who haven't done any of that but are "looking good": You may think that 1-2 of these names "suck" but it doesn't really change the proportion. About 1 in 4 (at best) 1st round picks will become "franchise QBs" (I hate this stupid term, but I'll go along)

Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow

10 more are solid pros/got into the pro bowl consistently/had an impressive year before being derailed (Griffin, obviously). A murky category (does Goff really belong here?) but I tried to be charitable. Again, some recent names (Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert) can move up to the star category, but who knows at the moment? I'm not a prophet. Lets' call it another 1 in 4 (at best) chance that the QB will prove decent for a couple of years... or for someone else.

Smith, Cutler, Griffin, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Goff, Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert

26 (so, over 50%) didn't pan out. Some were famous busts (Russell, Manziel, Weeden etc), some were unlucky/didn't get a fair shot/were "overdrafted" (whatever that means). Again, you may disagree with some names (e.g. Vince Young who was good for 1 year, or Mariota who's a solid pro, or Love who is still too young), but the gist remains: you have a 1 in 2 chance (if you are lucky) that the "franchise QB" you thought you'd be drafting won't even be a solid pro. A total bust is about 1 in 4 chance, perhaps more.

Campbell, Young, Leinart, Russell, Quinn, Sanchez, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Weeden, Manuel, Bortles, Manziel, Winston, Mariota, Wentz, Trubisky, Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Haskins, Tagovailoa, Love

Some of these "don't pan outs" are unlucky. They get injured and by the time they're back the team has moved on. Some "are not given a fair chance", perhaps because of a coaching change. Some never adjust to the pros. Some should never have been drafted that high (Weeden, Tebow, Manziel, Rosen are the obvious names here). Some just suck (Russell, Leinart). It happens.

Lance has been injured, through no fault of his own. He was perhaps overdrafted, through no fault of his own. The team traded 3 1st rounders to move up for him, through no fault of his own. Another QB took his place after he got injured, through no fault of his own. I feel for him, but at present all he is displaying for us is:

A strong arm. A nice professional attitude. That's it.

He was drafted high after an extravagant trade. Irrelevant. He *might* be athletic and a dual threat QB. Hasn't shown it yet. He's a hard worker. Good for him. I said he's a nice person by all accounts. But this is sadly also irrelevant.

I want the kid to succeed. If he does, we all win. But it's year 3, and he still seems like a raw rookie. There are only 17 games in the regular season, and each one counts even more now that the 1st round bye is so tough to get. The team can't afford to "be fair" to him, give him the chance he deserves, find out what he can do, etc. He needs to produce NOW. So far this seems unlikely. It's sad, but there it is. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear I won't be.

Apologies for the very long post.

He's basically sol for the 49ers. If he gets a shot elsewhere, I don't doubt that he'll improve.

Look, based on his experience level, he does NOT look horrible. This narrative is nothing but asshat hater talk. But he's not going to get that experience he needs.

Well that's impossible not to do. It's 100% certainty he will improve the next game

With that said, while he will likely improve, and may even become a decent starter, I don't see him ever becoming a fqb based on everything I've seen.

Originally posted by JoseCortez:

Originally posted by paulk205:
I have avoided getting into these dung-flinging matches of (all) the QB threads, but for me it's very obvious by now.

At least half (possibly even more) of early 1st round QBs don't pan out for the team which drafted them. This is becoming worse in the rookie salary cap era when it's cheaper for a team to punt (sorry, Britishism, I mean "to gamble") on a rookie QB, without sunk costs considerations like with the proverbial Sam Bradford contract. Now it's cheaper to just toss aside the young QB if he doesn't immediately produce. Terrible in terms of labour welfare, but you guys are American and don't think of these things

I make it 46 QBs drafted since (and including) Alex Smith, who was our previous high drafted/internet flamewar causing QB, and before Lance. 10 are either superstars, or led their team to a championship, or won an MVP. I've included three recent names (Allen, Jackson, Burrow) who haven't done any of that but are "looking good": You may think that 1-2 of these names "suck" but it doesn't really change the proportion. About 1 in 4 (at best) 1st round picks will become "franchise QBs" (I hate this stupid term, but I'll go along)

Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow

10 more are solid pros/got into the pro bowl consistently/had an impressive year before being derailed (Griffin, obviously). A murky category (does Goff really belong here?) but I tried to be charitable. Again, some recent names (Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert) can move up to the star category, but who knows at the moment? I'm not a prophet. Lets' call it another 1 in 4 (at best) chance that the QB will prove decent for a couple of years... or for someone else.

Smith, Cutler, Griffin, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Goff, Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert

26 (so, over 50%) didn't pan out. Some were famous busts (Russell, Manziel, Weeden etc), some were unlucky/didn't get a fair shot/were "overdrafted" (whatever that means). Again, you may disagree with some names (e.g. Vince Young who was good for 1 year, or Mariota who's a solid pro, or Love who is still too young), but the gist remains: you have a 1 in 2 chance (if you are lucky) that the "franchise QB" you thought you'd be drafting won't even be a solid pro. A total bust is about 1 in 4 chance, perhaps more.

Campbell, Young, Leinart, Russell, Quinn, Sanchez, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Weeden, Manuel, Bortles, Manziel, Winston, Mariota, Wentz, Trubisky, Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Haskins, Tagovailoa, Love

Some of these "don't pan outs" are unlucky. They get injured and by the time they're back the team has moved on. Some "are not given a fair chance", perhaps because of a coaching change. Some never adjust to the pros. Some should never have been drafted that high (Weeden, Tebow, Manziel, Rosen are the obvious names here). Some just suck (Russell, Leinart). It happens.

Lance has been injured, through no fault of his own. He was perhaps overdrafted, through no fault of his own. The team traded 3 1st rounders to move up for him, through no fault of his own. Another QB took his place after he got injured, through no fault of his own. I feel for him, but at present all he is displaying for us is:

A strong arm. A nice professional attitude. That's it.

He was drafted high after an extravagant trade. Irrelevant. He *might* be athletic and a dual threat QB. Hasn't shown it yet. He's a hard worker. Good for him. I said he's a nice person by all accounts. But this is sadly also irrelevant.

I want the kid to succeed. If he does, we all win. But it's year 3, and he still seems like a raw rookie. There are only 17 games in the regular season, and each one counts even more now that the 1st round bye is so tough to get. The team can't afford to "be fair" to him, give him the chance he deserves, find out what he can do, etc. He needs to produce NOW. So far this seems unlikely. It's sad, but there it is. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear I won't be.

Apologies for the very long post.

Great post.

Actually, Lance leaving college early, after only 318 snaps and one full year in college then sitting out a year and being woefully unprepared for the NFL as a development project IS his fault. That's on him, he knew he could get the bag, and at the expense of actually being prepared for a NFL career. Of course many of us would do it, but there are also lots and lots of college players, especially QBs that want a successful NFL career and arent making a money grab, that stay in college and gtet development and preparation to play in the NFL.

Trey didn't, and that's on him, ridiculous that everyone acts like he has no responsibility or accountability for his own development, he is historically unprepared for the NFL, perhaps the least unprepared of any high first round draft pick ever, in terms of college experience.

Originally posted by prospector49:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:

Originally posted by paulk205:

I have avoided getting into these dung-flinging matches of (all) the QB threads, but for me it's very obvious by now.

At least half (possibly even more) of early 1st round QBs don't pan out for the team which drafted them. This is becoming worse in the rookie salary cap era when it's cheaper for a team to punt (sorry, Britishism, I mean "to gamble") on a rookie QB, without sunk costs considerations like with the proverbial Sam Bradford contract. Now it's cheaper to just toss aside the young QB if he doesn't immediately produce. Terrible in terms of labour welfare, but you guys are American and don't think of these things

I make it 46 QBs drafted since (and including) Alex Smith, who was our previous high drafted/internet flamewar causing QB, and before Lance. 10 are either superstars, or led their team to a championship, or won an MVP. I've included three recent names (Allen, Jackson, Burrow) who haven't done any of that but are "looking good": You may think that 1-2 of these names "suck" but it doesn't really change the proportion. About 1 in 4 (at best) 1st round picks will become "franchise QBs" (I hate this stupid term, but I'll go along)

Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow

10 more are solid pros/got into the pro bowl consistently/had an impressive year before being derailed (Griffin, obviously). A murky category (does Goff really belong here?) but I tried to be charitable. Again, some recent names (Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert) can move up to the star category, but who knows at the moment? I'm not a prophet. Lets' call it another 1 in 4 (at best) chance that the QB will prove decent for a couple of years... or for someone else.

Smith, Cutler, Griffin, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Goff, Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert

26 (so, over 50%) didn't pan out. Some were famous busts (Russell, Manziel, Weeden etc), some were unlucky/didn't get a fair shot/were "overdrafted" (whatever that means). Again, you may disagree with some names (e.g. Vince Young who was good for 1 year, or Mariota who's a solid pro, or Love who is still too young), but the gist remains: you have a 1 in 2 chance (if you are lucky) that the "franchise QB" you thought you'd be drafting won't even be a solid pro. A total bust is about 1 in 4 chance, perhaps more.

Campbell, Young, Leinart, Russell, Quinn, Sanchez, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Weeden, Manuel, Bortles, Manziel, Winston, Mariota, Wentz, Trubisky, Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Haskins, Tagovailoa, Love

Some of these "don't pan outs" are unlucky. They get injured and by the time they're back the team has moved on. Some "are not given a fair chance", perhaps because of a coaching change. Some never adjust to the pros. Some should never have been drafted that high (Weeden, Tebow, Manziel, Rosen are the obvious names here). Some just suck (Russell, Leinart). It happens.

Lance has been injured, through no fault of his own. He was perhaps overdrafted, through no fault of his own. The team traded 3 1st rounders to move up for him, through no fault of his own. Another QB took his place after he got injured, through no fault of his own. I feel for him, but at present all he is displaying for us is:

A strong arm. A nice professional attitude. That's it.

He was drafted high after an extravagant trade. Irrelevant. He *might* be athletic and a dual threat QB. Hasn't shown it yet. He's a hard worker. Good for him. I said he's a nice person by all accounts. But this is sadly also irrelevant.

I want the kid to succeed. If he does, we all win. But it's year 3, and he still seems like a raw rookie. There are only 17 games in the regular season, and each one counts even more now that the 1st round bye is so tough to get. The team can't afford to "be fair" to him, give him the chance he deserves, find out what he can do, etc. He needs to produce NOW. So far this seems unlikely. It's sad, but there it is. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear I won't be.

Apologies for the very long post.

Great post.

Actually, Lance leaving college early, after only 318 snaps and one full year in college then sitting out a year and being woefully unprepared for the NFL as a development project IS his fault. That's on him, he knew he could get the bag, and at the expense of actually being prepared for a NFL career. Of course many of us would do it, but there are also lots and lots of college players, especially QBs that want a successful NFL career and arent making a money grab, that stay in college and gtet development and preparation to play in the NFL.

Trey didn't, and that's on him, ridiculous that everyone acts like he has no responsibility or accountability for his own development, he is historically unprepared for the NFL, perhaps the least unprepared of any high first round draft pick ever, in terms of college experience.

Huh? I don't even know where to begin with this lol. In summary:

-It's Trey's fault we drafted him too high. By entering the draft, he clearly forced our hand!

-It's also Trey's fault he got his ankle snapped in half on a run up the middle and as a result, is responsible for his lack of reps/development

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by prospector49:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:

Originally posted by paulk205:
I have avoided getting into these dung-flinging matches of (all) the QB threads, but for me it's very obvious by now.

At least half (possibly even more) of early 1st round QBs don't pan out for the team which drafted them. This is becoming worse in the rookie salary cap era when it's cheaper for a team to punt (sorry, Britishism, I mean "to gamble") on a rookie QB, without sunk costs considerations like with the proverbial Sam Bradford contract. Now it's cheaper to just toss aside the young QB if he doesn't immediately produce. Terrible in terms of labour welfare, but you guys are American and don't think of these things

I make it 46 QBs drafted since (and including) Alex Smith, who was our previous high drafted/internet flamewar causing QB, and before Lance. 10 are either superstars, or led their team to a championship, or won an MVP. I've included three recent names (Allen, Jackson, Burrow) who haven't done any of that but are "looking good": You may think that 1-2 of these names "suck" but it doesn't really change the proportion. About 1 in 4 (at best) 1st round picks will become "franchise QBs" (I hate this stupid term, but I'll go along)

Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow

10 more are solid pros/got into the pro bowl consistently/had an impressive year before being derailed (Griffin, obviously). A murky category (does Goff really belong here?) but I tried to be charitable. Again, some recent names (Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert) can move up to the star category, but who knows at the moment? I'm not a prophet. Lets' call it another 1 in 4 (at best) chance that the QB will prove decent for a couple of years... or for someone else.

Smith, Cutler, Griffin, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Goff, Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert

26 (so, over 50%) didn't pan out. Some were famous busts (Russell, Manziel, Weeden etc), some were unlucky/didn't get a fair shot/were "overdrafted" (whatever that means). Again, you may disagree with some names (e.g. Vince Young who was good for 1 year, or Mariota who's a solid pro, or Love who is still too young), but the gist remains: you have a 1 in 2 chance (if you are lucky) that the "franchise QB" you thought you'd be drafting won't even be a solid pro. A total bust is about 1 in 4 chance, perhaps more.

Campbell, Young, Leinart, Russell, Quinn, Sanchez, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Weeden, Manuel, Bortles, Manziel, Winston, Mariota, Wentz, Trubisky, Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Haskins, Tagovailoa, Love

Some of these "don't pan outs" are unlucky. They get injured and by the time they're back the team has moved on. Some "are not given a fair chance", perhaps because of a coaching change. Some never adjust to the pros. Some should never have been drafted that high (Weeden, Tebow, Manziel, Rosen are the obvious names here). Some just suck (Russell, Leinart). It happens.

Lance has been injured, through no fault of his own. He was perhaps overdrafted, through no fault of his own. The team traded 3 1st rounders to move up for him, through no fault of his own. Another QB took his place after he got injured, through no fault of his own. I feel for him, but at present all he is displaying for us is:

A strong arm. A nice professional attitude. That's it.

He was drafted high after an extravagant trade. Irrelevant. He *might* be athletic and a dual threat QB. Hasn't shown it yet. He's a hard worker. Good for him. I said he's a nice person by all accounts. But this is sadly also irrelevant.

I want the kid to succeed. If he does, we all win. But it's year 3, and he still seems like a raw rookie. There are only 17 games in the regular season, and each one counts even more now that the 1st round bye is so tough to get. The team can't afford to "be fair" to him, give him the chance he deserves, find out what he can do, etc. He needs to produce NOW. So far this seems unlikely. It's sad, but there it is. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear I won't be.

Apologies for the very long post.

Great post.

Actually, Lance leaving college early, after only 318 snaps and one full year in college then sitting out a year and being woefully unprepared for the NFL as a development project IS his fault. That's on him, he knew he could get the bag, and at the expense of actually being prepared for a NFL career. Of course many of us would do it, but there are also lots and lots of college players, especially QBs that want a successful NFL career and arent making a money grab, that stay in college and gtet development and preparation to play in the NFL.

Trey didn't, and that's on him, ridiculous that everyone acts like he has no responsibility or accountability for his own development, he is historically unprepared for the NFL, perhaps the least unprepared of any high first round draft pick ever, in terms of college experience.

Huh? I don't even know where to begin with this lol. In summary:

-It's Trey's fault we drafted him too high. By entering the draft, he clearly forced our hand!

-It's also Trey's fault he got his ankle snapped in half on a run up the middle and as a result, is responsible for his lack of reps/development

He had to know once he enter the draft he doesn't get to choose which team he is going. He may have to compete for a starting role, which he may not win.

I think that is very different from saying he forced out hand.

We chose to draft him, and that was our fault, but we don't owe him playing time.

Originally posted by prospector49:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:

Originally posted by paulk205:
I have avoided getting into these dung-flinging matches of (all) the QB threads, but for me it's very obvious by now.

At least half (possibly even more) of early 1st round QBs don't pan out for the team which drafted them. This is becoming worse in the rookie salary cap era when it's cheaper for a team to punt (sorry, Britishism, I mean "to gamble") on a rookie QB, without sunk costs considerations like with the proverbial Sam Bradford contract. Now it's cheaper to just toss aside the young QB if he doesn't immediately produce. Terrible in terms of labour welfare, but you guys are American and don't think of these things

I make it 46 QBs drafted since (and including) Alex Smith, who was our previous high drafted/internet flamewar causing QB, and before Lance. 10 are either superstars, or led their team to a championship, or won an MVP. I've included three recent names (Allen, Jackson, Burrow) who haven't done any of that but are "looking good": You may think that 1-2 of these names "suck" but it doesn't really change the proportion. About 1 in 4 (at best) 1st round picks will become "franchise QBs" (I hate this stupid term, but I'll go along)

Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow

10 more are solid pros/got into the pro bowl consistently/had an impressive year before being derailed (Griffin, obviously). A murky category (does Goff really belong here?) but I tried to be charitable. Again, some recent names (Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert) can move up to the star category, but who knows at the moment? I'm not a prophet. Lets' call it another 1 in 4 (at best) chance that the QB will prove decent for a couple of years... or for someone else.

Smith, Cutler, Griffin, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Goff, Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert

26 (so, over 50%) didn't pan out. Some were famous busts (Russell, Manziel, Weeden etc), some were unlucky/didn't get a fair shot/were "overdrafted" (whatever that means). Again, you may disagree with some names (e.g. Vince Young who was good for 1 year, or Mariota who's a solid pro, or Love who is still too young), but the gist remains: you have a 1 in 2 chance (if you are lucky) that the "franchise QB" you thought you'd be drafting won't even be a solid pro. A total bust is about 1 in 4 chance, perhaps more.

Campbell, Young, Leinart, Russell, Quinn, Sanchez, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Weeden, Manuel, Bortles, Manziel, Winston, Mariota, Wentz, Trubisky, Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Haskins, Tagovailoa, Love

Some of these "don't pan outs" are unlucky. They get injured and by the time they're back the team has moved on. Some "are not given a fair chance", perhaps because of a coaching change. Some never adjust to the pros. Some should never have been drafted that high (Weeden, Tebow, Manziel, Rosen are the obvious names here). Some just suck (Russell, Leinart). It happens.

Lance has been injured, through no fault of his own. He was perhaps overdrafted, through no fault of his own. The team traded 3 1st rounders to move up for him, through no fault of his own. Another QB took his place after he got injured, through no fault of his own. I feel for him, but at present all he is displaying for us is:

A strong arm. A nice professional attitude. That's it.

He was drafted high after an extravagant trade. Irrelevant. He *might* be athletic and a dual threat QB. Hasn't shown it yet. He's a hard worker. Good for him. I said he's a nice person by all accounts. But this is sadly also irrelevant.

I want the kid to succeed. If he does, we all win. But it's year 3, and he still seems like a raw rookie. There are only 17 games in the regular season, and each one counts even more now that the 1st round bye is so tough to get. The team can't afford to "be fair" to him, give him the chance he deserves, find out what he can do, etc. He needs to produce NOW. So far this seems unlikely. It's sad, but there it is. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear I won't be.

Apologies for the very long post.

Great post.

Actually, Lance leaving college early, after only 318 snaps and one full year in college then sitting out a year and being woefully unprepared for the NFL as a development project IS his fault. That's on him, he knew he could get the bag, and at the expense of actually being prepared for a NFL career. Of course many of us would do it, but there are also lots and lots of college players, especially QBs that want a successful NFL career and arent making a money grab, that stay in college and gtet development and preparation to play in the NFL.

Trey didn't, and that's on him, ridiculous that everyone acts like he has no responsibility or accountability for his own development, he is historically unprepared for the NFL, perhaps the least unprepared of any high first round draft pick ever, in terms of college experience.

The Draft, as is often stated, is a crapshoot. To be a good QB in the NFL, I think one of the key ingredients is getting in with a good OC, or a Head Coach (doesn't matter if the HC has a defensive background - Walsh, Shula, Noll, Landry, or offensive - Gillman, Lombardi, John Madden, Al Davis) that knows football and can spot talent and develop said talent.

Most people can see that Trey has flashed a lot of potential. There have been throws in his brief NFL career where he's just Wow'ed me, and many other people. The key is having a coach that can develop that *wow* factor consistently. Trey isn't just a strong arm, or another running back playing QB. I don't think he's another Colin Kaepernick. The guy can read defenses, he cares about football, and he has a good and accurate arm both in the pocket and on the move. NDSU is a football powerhouse, but that doesn't mean Trey doesn't have talent, and was carried by the team. Key is for a good coach to develop that talent. Trey may be the rawest of the raw, in terms of being a football player, but I trust Kyle in QB talent evaluations, and I think Kyle can do it. Afterall, Nick Mullens and BeatHard are still playing in the NFL.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
So much discussion still over a guy who was never going to get a true shot here after the broken ankle.

It is what it is.

Agreed

Yup.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 9erson3:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
So much discussion still over a guy who was never going to get a true shot here after the broken ankle.

It is what it is.

Agreed

And yet here we all are still discussing. 😅

That entire group of five, grrr. All that bickering and four of them over drafted. Fields maybe okay but I just don't care for the guy too much attitude wise.

That entire draft board of early QBs. Wow.

I know what NC would have rather spent those 3x 1st's on.

Hahaha. Wait,

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
I agree. He looks on par with his level of experience. I hope he finds success one day, I don't wish for anyone to fail.

I wanted Fields too but it's moot now.

It's wild that a preseason game was the breaking point for the media lol

Originally posted by libertyforever:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by prospector49:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:

Originally posted by paulk205:

I have avoided getting into these dung-flinging matches of (all) the QB threads, but for me it's very obvious by now.

At least half (possibly even more) of early 1st round QBs don't pan out for the team which drafted them. This is becoming worse in the rookie salary cap era when it's cheaper for a team to punt (sorry, Britishism, I mean "to gamble") on a rookie QB, without sunk costs considerations like with the proverbial Sam Bradford contract. Now it's cheaper to just toss aside the young QB if he doesn't immediately produce. Terrible in terms of labour welfare, but you guys are American and don't think of these things

I make it 46 QBs drafted since (and including) Alex Smith, who was our previous high drafted/internet flamewar causing QB, and before Lance. 10 are either superstars, or led their team to a championship, or won an MVP. I've included three recent names (Allen, Jackson, Burrow) who haven't done any of that but are "looking good": You may think that 1-2 of these names "suck" but it doesn't really change the proportion. About 1 in 4 (at best) 1st round picks will become "franchise QBs" (I hate this stupid term, but I'll go along)

Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow

10 more are solid pros/got into the pro bowl consistently/had an impressive year before being derailed (Griffin, obviously). A murky category (does Goff really belong here?) but I tried to be charitable. Again, some recent names (Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert) can move up to the star category, but who knows at the moment? I'm not a prophet. Lets' call it another 1 in 4 (at best) chance that the QB will prove decent for a couple of years... or for someone else.

Smith, Cutler, Griffin, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Goff, Watson, Murray, Jones, Herbert

26 (so, over 50%) didn't pan out. Some were famous busts (Russell, Manziel, Weeden etc), some were unlucky/didn't get a fair shot/were "overdrafted" (whatever that means). Again, you may disagree with some names (e.g. Vince Young who was good for 1 year, or Mariota who's a solid pro, or Love who is still too young), but the gist remains: you have a 1 in 2 chance (if you are lucky) that the "franchise QB" you thought you'd be drafting won't even be a solid pro. A total bust is about 1 in 4 chance, perhaps more.

Campbell, Young, Leinart, Russell, Quinn, Sanchez, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Weeden, Manuel, Bortles, Manziel, Winston, Mariota, Wentz, Trubisky, Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Haskins, Tagovailoa, Love

Some of these "don't pan outs" are unlucky. They get injured and by the time they're back the team has moved on. Some "are not given a fair chance", perhaps because of a coaching change. Some never adjust to the pros. Some should never have been drafted that high (Weeden, Tebow, Manziel, Rosen are the obvious names here). Some just suck (Russell, Leinart). It happens.

Lance has been injured, through no fault of his own. He was perhaps overdrafted, through no fault of his own. The team traded 3 1st rounders to move up for him, through no fault of his own. Another QB took his place after he got injured, through no fault of his own. I feel for him, but at present all he is displaying for us is:

A strong arm. A nice professional attitude. That's it.

He was drafted high after an extravagant trade. Irrelevant. He *might* be athletic and a dual threat QB. Hasn't shown it yet. He's a hard worker. Good for him. I said he's a nice person by all accounts. But this is sadly also irrelevant.

I want the kid to succeed. If he does, we all win. But it's year 3, and he still seems like a raw rookie. There are only 17 games in the regular season, and each one counts even more now that the 1st round bye is so tough to get. The team can't afford to "be fair" to him, give him the chance he deserves, find out what he can do, etc. He needs to produce NOW. So far this seems unlikely. It's sad, but there it is. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear I won't be.

Apologies for the very long post.

Great post.

Actually, Lance leaving college early, after only 318 snaps and one full year in college then sitting out a year and being woefully unprepared for the NFL as a development project IS his fault. That's on him, he knew he could get the bag, and at the expense of actually being prepared for a NFL career. Of course many of us would do it, but there are also lots and lots of college players, especially QBs that want a successful NFL career and arent making a money grab, that stay in college and gtet development and preparation to play in the NFL.

Trey didn't, and that's on him, ridiculous that everyone acts like he has no responsibility or accountability for his own development, he is historically unprepared for the NFL, perhaps the least unprepared of any high first round draft pick ever, in terms of college experience.

Huh? I don't even know where to begin with this lol. In summary:

-It's Trey's fault we drafted him too high. By entering the draft, he clearly forced our hand!

-It's also Trey's fault he got his ankle snapped in half on a run up the middle and as a result, is responsible for his lack of reps/development

He had to know once he enter the draft he doesn't get to choose which team he is going. He may have to compete for a starting role, which he may not win.

I think that is very different from saying he forced out hand.

We chose to draft him, and that was our fault, but we don't owe him playing time.

Agreed 100%. I was sarcastically making that point. I get where the other dude was probably trying to go, but the way it framed was hilariously silly.

No player is entitled to anything. On a Shanahan team, you get what you earn -- and sometimes that's a seat on the bench, or a ticket out of town.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
It's wild that a preseason game was the breaking point for the media lol

It was a highly anticipated preseason game + Purdy's emergence + Sam Darnold's presence + a win now team + dreamers.

Originally posted by paulk205:
Thank you for the courteous tone.

I said before and I'll say it again. I like the kid because he seems like a genuinely nice person who tries hard and doesn't undermine his teammates. I also am a fan of the team, so if he proves me wrong so much the better. I get to eat crow in a random internet forum, the team get a great player, and therefore have a better chance to win. I'll take this trade any time.

The reason I put in all the draft statistics is to show that it is actually not a failure of character by Lance if he fails here, nor a total brainfart by the team who picked him. He got injured, someone else stepped in. It happens. In fact, it happens to EVERYBODY, most of the time. Draw enough lots (and the draft happens every year) and you too end up holding up the short straw, despite 5 SBs and bucketloads of HOFers in your history. That's the problem with probabilities as high as 0.5 and annual draws. The team had basically a coin flip chance of this working out even a little. They picked heads. It looks as if it it is coming up tails. Possibly.

What these statistics also show is that the correct strategy by the team is to take a decision this year. For whatever reason, bad luck, injuries, wrong place for him, "overdrafting", whatever, if (and it's still an "if", though worryingly less so) he is still playing rookie level ball in Year 3 on a team that is shooting for the championship, then the correct strategy is to cut him loose. Perhaps he finds success elsewhere, perhaps he doesn't. I hope he does. I still hope he turns it around for us. But I don't KNOW. Only the team know, or think they do. They have the information, and the the plan. Since we're all fans of the team, let's hope this plan is the right one. Keeping him simply because they drafted him so high, for all that draft capital is not just irrelevant - it's sunk costs fallacy. And forget "potential". His paid like a #3 QB pick. There is no unlimited time left in his rookie contract for him to develop that potential, AND win his job back, AND show he is the long term answer some time next year. This team is built to win NOW. Can he help this team NOW, even as insurance to Purdy? If yes, keep him. If no, let him try elsewhere.

They can keep Trey for this year, and if he progresses enough, they probably will keep him next year and then make that final decision as to trade/cut him at that point. Again, progress for Trey is critical in this next game, as is *progress* in any game for a QB. The reps a QB gets is scarce resource for a team. They can keep Trey (cap wise) because of Brock (and Brock's Salary). Whether they do, or not, is another matter. Going into 2023, Kyle has a strong QB squad with Brock, Trey, and Sam. Allen has really surprised me also, and he's possibly another find for Kyle. I think cutting Trey now (or trading him sometime this year) is still too soon. He's only played in 4+ regular season NFL games. That's really not enough time to evaluate him, given his eyepopping athleticism, and his Rawness (one year in college and four NFL games). 49ers are in a Super Bowl window. Having *both* Sam and Trey as backups to Brock makes this a very strong QB squad for this year's Super Bowl run.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 9erson3:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
So much discussion still over a guy who was never going to get a true shot here after the broken ankle.

It is what it is.

Agreed

And yet here we all are still discussing. 😅

That entire group of five, grrr. All that bickering and four of them over drafted. Fields maybe okay but I just don't care for the guy too much attitude wise.

That entire draft board of early QBs. Wow.

I know what NC would have rather spent those 3x 1st's on.

Hahaha. Wait,

Next year, NC, next year!

Originally posted by Stanley:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
It's wild that a preseason game was the breaking point for the media lol

It was a highly anticipated preseason game + Purdy's emergence + Sam Darnold's presence + a win now team + dreamers.

It was a s**tty normal preseason game imo. Like most kyle preseason games. I think honestly most media people and a good handful of fans were licking their chops for a poor lance game. I mean as bad as some of the moments were, it wasn't all bad either. You don't put up those stats and it's all pure trash.

end of the day is what it is, Brock better be the next coming of Montana.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 9erson3:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
So much discussion still over a guy who was never going to get a true shot here after the broken ankle.

It is what it is.

Agreed

And yet here we all are still discussing. 😅

That entire group of five, grrr. All that bickering and four of them over drafted. Fields maybe okay but I just don't care for the guy too much attitude wise.

That entire draft board of early QBs. Wow.

I know what NC would have rather spent those 3x 1st's on.

Hahaha. Wait,

Next year, NC, next year!

Would have been spent on DL and WRs.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by paulk205:
Thank you for the courteous tone.

I said before and I'll say it again. I like the kid because he seems like a genuinely nice person who tries hard and doesn't undermine his teammates. I also am a fan of the team, so if he proves me wrong so much the better. I get to eat crow in a random internet forum, the team get a great player, and therefore have a better chance to win. I'll take this trade any time.

The reason I put in all the draft statistics is to show that it is actually not a failure of character by Lance if he fails here, nor a total brainfart by the team who picked him. He got injured, someone else stepped in. It happens. In fact, it happens to EVERYBODY, most of the time. Draw enough lots (and the draft happens every year) and you too end up holding up the short straw, despite 5 SBs and bucketloads of HOFers in your history. That's the problem with probabilities as high as 0.5 and annual draws. The team had basically a coin flip chance of this working out even a little. They picked heads. It looks as if it it is coming up tails. Possibly.

What these statistics also show is that the correct strategy by the team is to take a decision this year. For whatever reason, bad luck, injuries, wrong place for him, "overdrafting", whatever, if (and it's still an "if", though worryingly less so) he is still playing rookie level ball in Year 3 on a team that is shooting for the championship, then the correct strategy is to cut him loose. Perhaps he finds success elsewhere, perhaps he doesn't. I hope he does. I still hope he turns it around for us. But I don't KNOW. Only the team know, or think they do. They have the information, and the the plan. Since we're all fans of the team, let's hope this plan is the right one. Keeping him simply because they drafted him so high, for all that draft capital is not just irrelevant - it's sunk costs fallacy. And forget "potential". His paid like a #3 QB pick. There is no unlimited time left in his rookie contract for him to develop that potential, AND win his job back, AND show he is the long term answer some time next year. This team is built to win NOW. Can he help this team NOW, even as insurance to Purdy? If yes, keep him. If no, let him try elsewhere.

They can keep Trey for this year, and if he progresses enough, they probably will keep him next year and then make that final decision as to trade/cut him at that point. Again, progress for Trey is critical in this next game, as is *progress* in any game for a QB. The reps a QB gets is scarce resource for a team. They can keep Trey (cap wise) because of Brock (and Brock's Salary). Whether they do, or not, is another matter. Going into 2023, Kyle has a strong QB squad with Brock, Trey, and Sam. Allen has really surprised me also, and he's possibly another find for Kyle. I think cutting Trey now (or trading him sometime this year) is still too soon. He's only played in 4+ regular season NFL games. That's really not enough time to evaluate him, given his eyepopping athleticism, and his Rawness (one year in college and four NFL games). 49ers are in a Super Bowl window. Having *both* Sam and Trey as backups to Brock makes this a very strong QB squad for this year's Super Bowl run.

Don't they have to decide whether or not to exercise his 5th year option by next off season? If so, they need to decide then whether they want to trade him, let the rest of his contract play out or cut him.