Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by 49ers808:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Jimmy's 3rd down conversions are just as much to do with YAC and play calls as ability.

The fact that Jimmy's 2019 3rd down conversion rate and Nick Mullens 2020 3rd down conversion rate are so similar proves this statement to be correct.

yet the Win and points Differential is huge

And so was our run game and defense

defense was top 5 in 2020, Run doesn't help when you are playing catch up every game

Originally posted by Polkadots:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
You really think that 6 win team last year was our team and that what this roster can only acomplish ? lol

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Jimmy's 3rd down conversions are just as much to do with YAC and play calls as ability.

The fact that Jimmy's 2019 3rd down conversion rate and Nick Mullens 2020 3rd down conversion rate are so similar proves this statement to be correct.

yet the Win and points Differential is huge

Aren't you taking into account the 2020 injuries etc. in your first quote, while simultaneously ignoring their impact in your second? You seem to be acknowledging the roster was decimated in 2020 with your first quote--far beyond the QB position. And, as such, you imply a healthy roster will be much better this year--beyond solely the QB position. In your second quote, in order to discredit the 3rd down conversion comparison, you seem to ignore the decimated roster in order to make a, strictly, QB vs QB comparison. I think such a specific comparison is contextually inaccurate. The only comparison being made is that of 3rd down conversion rate, though that comparison is problematic in and of itself (more to it than just the QB).

I understand it fully.. Healthy or not if Mullens was completing 3rd downs like Jimmy.. we should have more points and more wins.

Coverting is converting

Both played with alomst the same team in 2020. which team looked better Mullens or Jimmy at QB ?

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
I understand it fully.. Healthy or not if Mullens was completing 3rd downs like Jimmy.. we should have more points and more wins.

Coverting is converting

Both played with alomst the same team in 2020. which team looked better Mullens or Jimmy at QB ?

They both looked terrible in 2020. JG looked best for about a half against the Jets. The Jets.

For reference, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct shows SF had a 3rd down conversion rate in 2020 of 39.09%, while in 2019 it was 44.35%. A difference of 5%. In addition, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game shows the 49ers scored, in 2020, 23.5 points per game, compared to 29.6 points per game in 2019. The average NFL team gets approximately 12-13 offensive drives per game. 12.5 x .05 equals .625. So, every five games, the 49ers had three more offensive drives. This (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct) shows the 49ers had a red zone scoring percentage of 67.27% in 2020 versus 55.56% in 2019. I'll ignore the 12% increase in 2020. As such, the 49ers would have scored approximately 12 more points every five games in 2019, for a regular season total of approximately 37 more points, or 2.5 more points per game. Yet, the difference is six points per game. The difference likely comes, not from JG alone, but the surrounding cast. Which, I think is fair to say, is exactly what you implied with the first quote I referenced.

The larger point is that JG is a clear upgrade compared to Mullens--granted. The question though, is whether JG is a clear upgrade compared to Trey. If he is, I have every belief he will start. But if he is not, I have no doubt Trey will play. JG is no more likely to win a Super Bowl than Trey is, if they are both playing at a similar level. Posters are pointing out a rookie has never won a Super Bowl as the starting QB. Yet that claim fails to account for so many variables, it's mind boggling people keep using it as some sort of defense against starting Trey in 2021.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Jimmy's 3rd down conversions are just as much to do with YAC and play calls as ability.

The fact that Jimmy's 2019 3rd down conversion rate and Nick Mullens 2020 3rd down conversion rate are so similar proves this statement to be correct.

yet the Win and points Differential is huge

That has nothing to do with what we were talking about, thanks.

Originally posted by Polkadots:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
I understand it fully.. Healthy or not if Mullens was completing 3rd downs like Jimmy.. we should have more points and more wins.

Coverting is converting

Both played with alomst the same team in 2020. which team looked better Mullens or Jimmy at QB ?

They both looked terrible in 2020. JG looked best for about a half against the Jets. The Jets.

For reference, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct shows SF had a 3rd down conversion rate in 2020 of 39.09%, while in 2019 it was 44.35%. A difference of 5%. In addition, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game shows the 49ers scored, in 2020, 23.5 points per game, compared to 29.6 points per game in 2019. The average NFL team gets approximately 12-13 offensive drives per game. 12.5 x .05 equals .625. So, every five games, the 49ers had three more offensive drives. This (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct) shows the 49ers had a red zone scoring percentage of 67.27% in 2020 versus 55.56% in 2019. I'll ignore the 12% increase in 2020. As such, the 49ers would have scored approximately 12 more points every five games in 2019, for a regular season total of approximately 37 more points, or 2.5 more points per game. Yet, the difference is six points per game. The difference likely comes, not from JG alone, but the surrounding cast. Which, I think is fair to say, is exactly what you implied with the first quote I referenced.

The larger point is that JG is a clear upgrade compared to Mullens--granted. The question though, is whether JG is a clear upgrade compared to Trey. If he is, I have every belief he will start. But if he is not, I have no doubt Trey will play. JG is no more likely to win a Super Bowl than Trey is, if they are both playing at a similar level. Posters are pointing out a rookie has never won a Super Bowl as the starting QB. Yet that claim fails to account for so many variables, it's mind boggling people keep using it as some sort of defense against starting Trey in 2021.

The times Jimmy was healthy/semi heathy, the flow of the game (was my last point) was a lot better than Mullens' games. compare the two RAMs games.of how the game flowed, not stats

Yes so many variables.. yet it has yet to happen. people want to say Trey can match Jimmy with no evidence at all. let just slow down a bit and ease in Lance

we don't need a repeat of Alex smith

Originally posted by Wewillwin:
Agree with all the folks that want Trey to prove it this year and take the job.

I think it's going to be really, really hard for him to do that.

And I think this whole "rookie QBs start now" concept is dumb and so is the "we should take the bumps with him now" commentary. They do start. They don't win Super Bowls. One extra loss because of Trey's bumps may mean we don't get a bye week or lose home field advantage.. or even miss the playoffs altogether.

As talented as Trey is, we have a real Super Bowl window this year and somehow thinking Trey will be more effective in this offense than Jimmy is by week 1 or this season is a stretch. Jimmy plays like a top 12-15 QB when he's out there… to think that a rookie QB will be at that level is is stretch.

Remember how Wentz played in year 1. How about Josh Alben? Lets go win a ring this year and trade Jimmy for a bounty after.

I feel like the whole "rookies don't win Super Bowls" sentiment is so misleading and most of the time (not all of the time) it's regurgitated by posters who know why it's misleading but say it anyway.

Originally posted by Polkadots:
They both looked terrible in 2020. JG looked best for about a half against the Jets. The Jets.

For reference, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct shows SF had a 3rd down conversion rate in 2020 of 39.09%, while in 2019 it was 44.35%. A difference of 5%. In addition, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game shows the 49ers scored, in 2020, 23.5 points per game, compared to 29.6 points per game in 2019. The average NFL team gets approximately 12-13 offensive drives per game. 12.5 x .05 equals .625. So, every five games, the 49ers had three more offensive drives. This (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct) shows the 49ers had a red zone scoring percentage of 67.27% in 2020 versus 55.56% in 2019. I'll ignore the 12% increase in 2020. As such, the 49ers would have scored approximately 12 more points every five games in 2019, for a regular season total of approximately 37 more points, or 2.5 more points per game. Yet, the difference is six points per game. The difference likely comes, not from JG alone, but the surrounding cast. Which, I think is fair to say, is exactly what you implied with the first quote I referenced.

The larger point is that JG is a clear upgrade compared to Mullens--granted. The question though, is whether JG is a clear upgrade compared to Trey. If he is, I have every belief he will start. But if he is not, I have no doubt Trey will play. JG is no more likely to win a Super Bowl than Trey is, if they are both playing at a similar level. Posters are pointing out a rookie has never won a Super Bowl as the starting QB. Yet that claim fails to account for so many variables, it's mind boggling people keep using it as some sort of defense against starting Trey in 2021.

5% is a significant change in a 3rd down conversion percentage. In 2019, if the rate would have dropped 5% its goes from a top 5 converting unit to somewhere in that 16th-17th range. There's usually about a 10% split from the best converting teams to bottom half of the league converting teams.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Jimmy's 3rd down conversions are just as much to do with YAC and play calls as ability.

The fact that Jimmy's 2019 3rd down conversion rate and Nick Mullens 2020 3rd down conversion rate are so similar proves this statement to be correct.

yet the Win and points Differential is huge

That has nothing to do with what we were talking about, thanks.

has everything to do with the end result.. but go ahead pretend they were the same

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by Wewillwin:
Agree with all the folks that want Trey to prove it this year and take the job.

I think it's going to be really, really hard for him to do that.

And I think this whole "rookie QBs start now" concept is dumb and so is the "we should take the bumps with him now" commentary. They do start. They don't win Super Bowls. One extra loss because of Trey's bumps may mean we don't get a bye week or lose home field advantage.. or even miss the playoffs altogether.

As talented as Trey is, we have a real Super Bowl window this year and somehow thinking Trey will be more effective in this offense than Jimmy is by week 1 or this season is a stretch. Jimmy plays like a top 12-15 QB when he's out there… to think that a rookie QB will be at that level is is stretch.

Remember how Wentz played in year 1. How about Josh Alben? Lets go win a ring this year and trade Jimmy for a bounty after.

I feel like the whole "rookies don't win Super Bowls" sentiment is so misleading and most of the time (not all of the time) it's regurgitated by posters who know why it's misleading but say it anyway.

i mean, you can always bet on the 10k/1 bet.. it has it hit sometime

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Jimmy's 3rd down conversions are just as much to do with YAC and play calls as ability.

The fact that Jimmy's 2019 3rd down conversion rate and Nick Mullens 2020 3rd down conversion rate are so similar proves this statement to be correct.

yet the Win and points Differential is huge

That has nothing to do with what we were talking about, thanks.

has everything to do with the end result.. but go ahead pretend they were the same

We werent discussing the end result.

Also, was never pretending or claiming they were the same. Jimmy is substantially more talented than Nick Mullens. Logic would tell you that with the huge difference in talent (as well as a huge difference in team health), Jimmy's 3rd down conversion rate should be substantially better than Mullens was. Since it wasnt, logic also tells us that there is another factor that is making the two stats similar.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
We werent discussing the end result.

Also, was never pretending or claiming they were the same. Jimmy is substantially more talented than Nick Mullens. Logic would tell you that with the huge difference in talent (as well as a huge difference in team health), Jimmy's 3rd down conversion rate should be substantially better than Mullens was. Since it wasnt, logic also tells us that there is another factor that is making the two stats similar.

5% difference is a substantial difference in 3rd down conversion rate. It's one of the area showing why a Jimmy led offense has been much more prolific than when the backup QBs are tasked with playing.

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
We werent discussing the end result.

Also, was never pretending or claiming they were the same. Jimmy is substantially more talented than Nick Mullens. Logic would tell you that with the huge difference in talent (as well as a huge difference in team health), Jimmy's 3rd down conversion rate should be substantially better than Mullens was. Since it wasnt, logic also tells us that there is another factor that is making the two stats similar.

5% difference is a substantial difference in 3rd down conversion rate. It's one of the area showing why a Jimmy led offense has been much more prolific than when the backup QBs are tasked with playing.

No it isnt. Using last season's average amount of 3rd downs a game, a 5% difference is good for about half a conversion a game. Are you really going to tell me that 8 more third down conversions over the course of a season is a substantial difference?

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
We werent discussing the end result.

Also, was never pretending or claiming they were the same. Jimmy is substantially more talented than Nick Mullens. Logic would tell you that with the huge difference in talent (as well as a huge difference in team health), Jimmy's 3rd down conversion rate should be substantially better than Mullens was. Since it wasnt, logic also tells us that there is another factor that is making the two stats similar.

5% difference is a substantial difference in 3rd down conversion rate. It's one of the area showing why a Jimmy led offense has been much more prolific than when the backup QBs are tasked with playing.

No it isnt. Using last season's average amount of 3rd downs a game, a 5% difference is good for about half a conversion a game. Are you really going to tell me that 8 more third down conversions over the course of a season is a substantial difference?

yes, there were a couple of single digit losses in 2020 where we needed some conversions.. heck we just need 1 conversion in the SB

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
No it isnt. Using last season's average amount of 3rd downs a game, a 5% difference is good for about half a conversion a game. Are you really going to tell me that 8 more third down conversions over the course of a season is a substantial difference?

A 5% difference in 3rd down takes you from the 24th ranked converting unit to the 9th ranked converting unit(assuming it was at the 2019 level of 44.35). That's a sizable jump.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Jimmy's 3rd down conversions are just as much to do with YAC and play calls as ability.

The fact that Jimmy's 2019 3rd down conversion rate and Nick Mullens 2020 3rd down conversion rate are so similar proves this statement to be correct.

"Similar" is pretty arbitrary
What are the percentages for each and where did each rank for that stat?


Jimmy G on 3rd down 2019:
69.23 comp percentage
101.9 rating
AY/A 7.5

Mullens on 3rd down in 2020:
57.5 Comp percentage
71.5 rating
4.85 AY/A


Almost identical I tell ya!