Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I know this isn't a mahomes thread BUT people in here acting like they knew Mahomes was gonna be great in college...disregarding how "raw" he was. There was plays like this every week in college from him. Air raid QBs coming into the league were basically failures up to that point. He literally had no clue what he was doing play to play lol. His mechanics were a s**t show.

So I'm hunting for b-roll of Mahomes when he was at TTU for this QB retrospective episode and I saw this play from the TCU game in 2016.

Immediately got a distinct memory of watching this throw for the first time and writing down "zero chance this play style works in the NFL" 🥲 pic.twitter.com/jdy9i6sQNF

— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) February 22, 2022

Mahomes attempting a 55 yard NO-LOOK pass to the post LOL pic.twitter.com/TtfNYup01c

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) January 11, 2019

Dude stepped onto the field his first full yr and threw for 50 TDs and 5,000 yards...why? because one he played on a damn good team with a damn good HC. Two he has god given talent that others don't. He had to work through the nuances of playing QB and he sure as s**t didn't have the figured out his first yr playing.

My point is...A LOT of these rookie QBs are "raw as a sushi" or whatever analogy you want to use coming into the league. Talent will shine through if they're put in a position to be successful. No they're not gonna be able to read every coverage and make their 3rd read on progression in the pocket like some vets. That takes time to learn. Guys like Mahomes/Watson/Allen/Herbert all had success (Allen a little later on) because the coaching staff wasn't trying to put a round peg in a square hole to start off. I think Kyle is smart enough to figure out what will work and not work YR1 to win games.

This is what I'm talking about this is the JL blueprint clearly. Lance is our Mahomes only more talented at #3 than Mahomes was at #10 imo. Plus we have more talent around. Kittle > Kelce. Best LT. Best FB. Deebo a legit #1. Aiyuk better than any KC #2 wr. KS dialing it all up. Etc. Rather have our slew of top players than Hill & Kelce duo.

All I'm saying is he doesn't have to be Tom Brady or Manning 10 yrs into their career to have success next season. He has god given ability to make plays with his arm and legs. We have a elite OC/HC and a top 10 roster in the league. That s**t matters and is part of the reason why I think Lance will be just fine....once he get's confident in his reads and reps out all the bad s**t...this team could be a real problem for the league for yrs to come.

Trey Lance isn't the first rookie raw talent at qb that Kyle had handled. He had RG3 in Washington. Got him using his physical talent doing RPO until RG3 wanted an express lane to playing in the pocket in the NFL.

Trey had some limited form of the pro offense in college so he isn't as raw as RG3 or even Mahomes coming out, but he still needs to prove that he can play in the pocket at the NFL level. Kyle can guide him there in time. Only the guys involved can give us an idea when.

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Didn't Mahomes say after his 5000/50 year that he still couldn't read defenses?

Yes

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Didn't Mahomes say after his 5000/50 year that he still couldn't read defenses?

Yes

Imagine what the talking heads would have said if he announced that before that season?!

Originally posted by qnnhan7:
Trey Lance isn't the first rookie raw talent at qb that Kyle had handled. He had RG3 in Washington. Got him using his physical talent doing RPO until RG3 wanted an express lane to playing in the pocket in the NFL.

Trey had some limited form of the pro offense in college so he isn't as raw as RG3 or even Mahomes coming out, but he still needs to prove that he can play in the pocket at the NFL level. Kyle can guide him there in time. Only the guys involved can give us an idea when.

Yup RG3 was another air raid QB.

Like I said Kyle will put Lance in the best position for him to have success. Allow Lance to extend plays and play his game until the game can slow down for him a little.

He's gonna have to rep out all the bad s**t...and fans have to understand that.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by qnnhan7:
Trey Lance isn't the first rookie raw talent at qb that Kyle had handled. He had RG3 in Washington. Got him using his physical talent doing RPO until RG3 wanted an express lane to playing in the pocket in the NFL.

Trey had some limited form of the pro offense in college so he isn't as raw as RG3 or even Mahomes coming out, but he still needs to prove that he can play in the pocket at the NFL level. Kyle can guide him there in time. Only the guys involved can give us an idea when.

Yup RG3 was another air raid QB.

Like I said Kyle will put Lance in the best position for him to have success. Allow Lance to extend plays and play his game until the game can slow down for him a little.

He's gonna have to rep out all the bad s**t...and fans have to understand that.

When did Mahomes rep out the bad stuff?

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by qnnhan7:
Trey Lance isn't the first rookie raw talent at qb that Kyle had handled. He had RG3 in Washington. Got him using his physical talent doing RPO until RG3 wanted an express lane to playing in the pocket in the NFL.

Trey had some limited form of the pro offense in college so he isn't as raw as RG3 or even Mahomes coming out, but he still needs to prove that he can play in the pocket at the NFL level. Kyle can guide him there in time. Only the guys involved can give us an idea when.

Yup RG3 was another air raid QB.

Like I said Kyle will put Lance in the best position for him to have success. Allow Lance to extend plays and play his game until the game can slow down for him a little.

He's gonna have to rep out all the bad s**t...and fans have to understand that.

When did Mahomes rep out the bad stuff?

This year he initially had trouble with taking the underneath stuff and not going for the big play but it looked he adjusted throughout the year

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Just for fun I did some rough calculations:
I used the information from NFL draft value pick from the WebZone Draft boards

Year
2021 #3 pick = 2200 {value for Trey Lance}

2021 #12 pick = 1200 {first round}
2022 #29 Pick = 640 {first round}
2022 #80 pick = 190 {3rd round pick - I just used the middle of the pack number - hoping its the average value of 3rd round picks in 2022}
2023 #16 pick = 1000 {first round pick - again I tried to pick the middle of the pack number - hoping it's the average value of first round picks in 2023}

You add the picks given up for Trey from 2021 through 2023 and you get 3030. So 3030 minus 2200 equals 830.
830 according to the draft value chart roughly equals the 20th pick in the first round.

So theoretically, the 49ers overpaid for Trey the equivalent of a 20th pick (first round) in the draft.

What you're not taking into consideration is it is said future picks are valued at one round less. Obviously with unknown picks you can't really put a clear value on it but the value of #29 this year and whatever our first rounder will be next season don't equal the value of same picks in last years draft.

So shave off value that value and check again.

Unfortunately there's no charts for the time value of future draft picks. I'd be going on more of a subjective path at that point. On the time value of draft picks, I *think* it goes like one round less, or something like that. Example: today's picks are worth more than tomorrows picks - i.e. a second rounder today is worth a first rounder tomorrow (or next year). I think that's how it goes - but how do you judge the time value of picks in the 3rd rounds and later? Also, the trade was done in 2021 not 2022 or 2023, shouldn't the value of the trade be better judged at the time of the trade and not as if the trade happened in 2022 or 2023?

I know there's no chart showing value of future picks but you're right about the value. That was my point.

2nd today is worth a first next year, etc.

So in 2021 we traded a first rounder(value is set as is)
2022 first(value in 2021 of a 2nd round pick)
2023 first(value in 2021 at least of a 2nd round pick)
2022 3rd rounder(value in 2021 of a 4th round pick)

So check the trade chart based on those vs giving point values as if all the picks were in 2021. No direct science to it of course but it's not as simple as value of 3rd overall for 12th overall, 29th overall and what whatever pick we get in the first next year and the 3rd comp pick this year.

Just off the cuff calculations - dropping a 1st round, 16th pick (using average/median of first round value) to 2nd round 16th pick drops the value from 1000 points to 420, which is an average of 580. 580 is valued at Round 2, pick 1 on the draft chart. So trying to analyze the 3 firsts and a 3rd by factoring in the time value, I think, results in a false valuation.

At the time of Trey's pick - in 2021 - you had actual data valuations on pick #3 and#12 -- but also a set of unknows (2022 round 1, 2022 round 3, 2023 round 1). We didn't know, at the time, that the first round pick in 2022 was going to be round 1 pick 29, so that's going to inflate the value *given* for Trey vs the actual value (round 1 pick 29). So now we *know* that in 2022 the first round pick is #29 vs an unknown projected number back in 2021, and hence you have a more accurate valuation of draft capital given up *now,* vs using and average first round pick valuation by trying to factor in time. Now in 2023, we again will have an even more accurate valuation of the draft capital given up for Trey because in the future, we will *know* the actual draft capital picks given up for Trey. In 2023, we will know exactly where we will draft because the season would have been played out. So I think factoring in the time value of draft picks would result in a lesser accurate valuation of the draft capital given up for Trey.

But clearly if you factor the time value of the draft capital given up, it's going to result in a greater disparity between what was given up vs the actual value of #3 in 2021.

Disagree. Have to factor in the time value. A 1st in 2023 is essentially equivalent to a 2021 3rd rounder. The team receiving the 2023 1st has to wait TWO FREAKING YEARS to use the pick. That wait is a huge thing.

Future picks MUST be discounted to present value. No different than in finance where future cash flows must be discounted to present value using a discount rate. A dollar two years from now is not worth a dollar today.

The fact that this year's first rounder is at #29 is huge - do that again next year and we easily come out on top of that trade.

I will concede if we gave up high 1st rounders the next two years would have to take that into consideration as those are extremely valuable picks. But we didn't.

Originally posted by Ghostofabshelmet:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by qnnhan7:
Trey Lance isn't the first rookie raw talent at qb that Kyle had handled. He had RG3 in Washington. Got him using his physical talent doing RPO until RG3 wanted an express lane to playing in the pocket in the NFL.

Trey had some limited form of the pro offense in college so he isn't as raw as RG3 or even Mahomes coming out, but he still needs to prove that he can play in the pocket at the NFL level. Kyle can guide him there in time. Only the guys involved can give us an idea when.

Yup RG3 was another air raid QB.

Like I said Kyle will put Lance in the best position for him to have success. Allow Lance to extend plays and play his game until the game can slow down for him a little.

He's gonna have to rep out all the bad s**t...and fans have to understand that.

When did Mahomes rep out the bad stuff?

This year he initially had trouble with taking the underneath stuff and not going for the big play but it looked he adjusted throughout the year

Got it.. so after he won a SB and MVP...

Go and do likewise Lancelot.. bringer of Camelot

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Got it.. so after he won a SB and MVP...

Go and do likewise Lancelot.. bringer of Camelot

Lance Came-alot, famous porn star from the 80"s

Originally posted by Ezekiel38:
Disagree. Have to factor in the time value. A 1st in 2023 is essentially equivalent to a 2021 3rd rounder. The team receiving the 2023 1st has to wait TWO FREAKING YEARS to use the pick. That wait is a huge thing.

Future picks MUST be discounted to present value. No different than in finance where future cash flows must be discounted to present value using a discount rate. A dollar two years from now is not worth a dollar today.

The fact that this year's first rounder is at #29 is huge - do that again next year and we easily come out on top of that trade.

I will concede if we gave up high 1st rounders the next two years would have to take that into consideration as those are extremely valuable picks. But we didn't.

In no way is a 3rd this year worth a 1st in 2023

I mean if that's the case we should trade our third round pick away every season. Eventually you will get to a point where you have no thirds ever but 2 firsts every year. Course you would have to find trade partners willing to deal away firsts for thirds, and you won't cuz out of all 31 other clubs none would part with a first in two years for a 3rd today. So what you say is essentially equal is not at all.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by Ezekiel38:
Disagree. Have to factor in the time value. A 1st in 2023 is essentially equivalent to a 2021 3rd rounder. The team receiving the 2023 1st has to wait TWO FREAKING YEARS to use the pick. That wait is a huge thing.

Future picks MUST be discounted to present value. No different than in finance where future cash flows must be discounted to present value using a discount rate. A dollar two years from now is not worth a dollar today.

The fact that this year's first rounder is at #29 is huge - do that again next year and we easily come out on top of that trade.

I will concede if we gave up high 1st rounders the next two years would have to take that into consideration as those are extremely valuable picks. But we didn't.

In no way is a 3rd this year worth a 1st in 2023

I mean if that's the case we should trade our third round pick away every season. Eventually you will get to a point where you have no thirds ever but 2 firsts every year. Course you would have to find trade partners willing to deal away firsts for thirds, and you won't cuz out of all 31 other clubs none would part with a first in two years for a 3rd today. So what you say is essentially equal is not at all.

Based on the conventional wisdom is that for very year in the future the worth of the pick is one round less.... ie receiving a 2022 2nd rounder is equivalent to receiving a 3rd rounder in 2021.

However, common sense wise...I can concede that I would not consider trading a 2023 1st straight up for a 2021 3rd. So I agree with you.

SO...the question is what would a regular non-desperate team be willing to trade their 2023 1st rounder for in 2021..... a 2021 2nd rounder? The answer to that question will provide the actual "discount rate" applied to the 2023 1st rounder to express in equivalent value in 2021.

I think it depends on the draft and quality of the players available in the 2nd round - but there have been many trades where a team picking in the high 30s in the 2nd round has traded their pick straight up for a 1st round pick the following year. So we can set kind of as a floor value a 2022 1st is worth a high-to-mid 2021 2nd rounder. So what is a 2023 1st worth in 2021...a team wouldn't accept a 1st in 2023 for a 2021 pick in the 35-45 range...so what range pick would get a team to be willing to part with their 2021 pick for a 2023 1st? Or looked at the other way...what range a pick in 2021 would a team be willing to accept to part with their 2023 1st?

Fascinating question.

Originally posted by Ezekiel38:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by Ezekiel38:
Disagree. Have to factor in the time value. A 1st in 2023 is essentially equivalent to a 2021 3rd rounder. The team receiving the 2023 1st has to wait TWO FREAKING YEARS to use the pick. That wait is a huge thing.

Future picks MUST be discounted to present value. No different than in finance where future cash flows must be discounted to present value using a discount rate. A dollar two years from now is not worth a dollar today.

The fact that this year's first rounder is at #29 is huge - do that again next year and we easily come out on top of that trade.

I will concede if we gave up high 1st rounders the next two years would have to take that into consideration as those are extremely valuable picks. But we didn't.

In no way is a 3rd this year worth a 1st in 2023

I mean if that's the case we should trade our third round pick away every season. Eventually you will get to a point where you have no thirds ever but 2 firsts every year. Course you would have to find trade partners willing to deal away firsts for thirds, and you won't cuz out of all 31 other clubs none would part with a first in two years for a 3rd today. So what you say is essentially equal is not at all.

Based on the conventional wisdom is that for very year in the future the worth of the pick is one round less.... ie receiving a 2022 2nd rounder is equivalent to receiving a 3rd rounder in 2021.

However, common sense wise...I can concede that I would not consider trading a 2023 1st straight up for a 2021 3rd. So I agree with you.

SO...the question is what would a regular non-desperate team be willing to trade their 2023 1st rounder for in 2021..... a 2021 2nd rounder? The answer to that question will provide the actual "discount rate" applied to the 2023 1st rounder to express in equivalent value in 2021.

I think it depends on the draft and quality of the players available in the 2nd round - but there have been many trades where a team picking in the high 30s in the 2nd round has traded their pick straight up for a 1st round pick the following year. So we can set kind of as a floor value a 2022 1st is worth a high-to-mid 2021 2nd rounder. So what is a 2023 1st worth in 2021...a team wouldn't accept a 1st in 2023 for a 2021 pick in the 35-45 range...so what range pick would get a team to be willing to part with their 2021 pick for a 2023 1st? Or looked at the other way...what range a pick in 2021 would a team be willing to accept to part with their 2023 1st?

Fascinating question.

Good post. Firsts kinda break the future discount rules in part because you don't know what exactly it will be. Could be the #1 overall and if that lands in the right draft it is franchise altering (Peyton Manning or John Elway type of draft). NBA puts in a whole bunch of protections on first round transactions so teams avoid giving away a future first if it say ends up in the top 10 or top 5.

As you mention we bet on ourselves in the Lance deal and huge to only be giving up pick #29.

Still boggles me that people said he isn't ready. They didn't say this crap with mahomes. Trey Lance in February 22, 2022 will be a lot different than a September 2022 Trey Lance.

I think this dude us going to make a lot of people look silly this year.