Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by NDSU:
10/10/21 We lose to AZ by 7 at Arizona (10-17)
11/07/21 We lose to AZ by 14 at Arizona (17-31)

What was the difference? Who was QB for each game.
Do people really still think Jimmy G was better than Lance in 2021?

dude

what kind of analysis is this?

Yes in 2021 Jimmy was better than Lance you just have to look at the play Jimmy was hampered by injury which did cut down his effiency at the end but overall Jimmy G IN 2021 was better than Lance.

our PPG if you take out any game where Lance played more than a 1Q jumps to top 3 in NFL

our yards/play was #1 in NFL
our redzone TD% was #1 in NFL

Jimmy G is a good QB who is limited but yes he is better than Lance as of right now things will change soon and Lance has the physical tools, smarts and ability to be a top QB

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by NDSU:
10/10/21 We lose to AZ by 7 at Arizona (10-17)
11/07/21 We lose to AZ by 14 at Arizona (17-31)

What was the difference? Who was QB for each game.
Do people really still think Jimmy G was better than Lance in 2021?

That game was 100% on the defense and 2 bone headed fumbles. Jimmy played excellent that game

So when Lance looses its his fault, and when Jimmy looses its the defenses fault. Got it.

Originally posted by ritz126:

Originally posted by NDSU:
10/10/21 We lose to AZ by 7 at Arizona (10-17)
11/07/21 We lose to AZ by 14 at Arizona (17-31)

What was the difference? Who was QB for each game.
Do people really still think Jimmy G was better than Lance in 2021?

dude

what kind of analysis is this?

A head to head direct analysis of the outcome of 2 games within 30 days with different QBs.

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by NDSU:
10/10/21 We lose to AZ by 7 at Arizona (10-17)
11/07/21 We lose to AZ by 14 at Arizona (17-31)

What was the difference? Who was QB for each game.
Do people really still think Jimmy G was better than Lance in 2021?

That game was 100% on the defense and 2 bone headed fumbles. Jimmy played excellent that game

Agree. It's tough using the 2nd AZ game as a comparison between Trey and Jimmy because Jimmy actually played much better as the season progressed. Add in the fact that the 49er defense also played much better as the season progressed. However, it's still a decent data point to judge the difference between Jimmy and Trey because it's the same opposing team and basically the same 49er team minus some injured parts. Trey playing - they lose by 7, Jimmy playing - they lose by 14. I'll take that datapoint with a big huge spoonful of salt, but I still do like the direction of that datapoint.

Originally posted by NDSU:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by NDSU:
10/10/21 We lose to AZ by 7 at Arizona (10-17)
11/07/21 We lose to AZ by 14 at Arizona (17-31)

What was the difference? Who was QB for each game.
Do people really still think Jimmy G was better than Lance in 2021?

That game was 100% on the defense and 2 bone headed fumbles. Jimmy played excellent that game

So when Lance looses its his fault, and when Jimmy looses its the defenses fault. Got it.

Show me where I said that

How do you compare a step-in due to injury to (not even two complete games) to the other 15 games played? In fact how do you compare the coming 2022 season as a whole to four years of play?

We will not know anything of true outcome until the 2023 season after he plays for a year. He could play lights out (need to see 2023 to make sure not a fluke) and if average to poor chalk it up to first full season. Until then, frigging glad he is batter up.

Really, Jimmy is history. The compares are null and void. It does not matter.

Originally posted by goldlame2013:
Here's the deal, nobody is questioning his mental or physical abilities, bottom line, the kid is more raw than bloody red hamburger meat. He's a project. Deebo, Kittle, Bosa and coming up Aiyuk, are in their primes. By the time Trey is ready to play, the others are gonna past their primes and it's gonna be too be late. The team is built to challenge for a Superbowl now, not 3 yrs from now when an experienced QB finally gets it.. Keep something in mind folks, he has 4 yrs of High school, one yr, I repeat ONE YEAR of college against basically JUCO level competition, it's not like he was competing against the SEC. He started 2 games in the NFL, and that's it. Pete Carroll, Belichick, Raheem Morris, you name it, will eat him alive. I wish the front office had thought this through better.

Deebo just turned 26 and Nick is 24.

So when Deebo is 29 and Nick is 27 they will no longer be in their primes.

Good to know because if it's written on the innanet it must be true.

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by NDSU:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by NDSU:
10/10/21 We lose to AZ by 7 at Arizona (10-17)
11/07/21 We lose to AZ by 14 at Arizona (17-31)

What was the difference? Who was QB for each game.
Do people really still think Jimmy G was better than Lance in 2021?

That game was 100% on the defense and 2 bone headed fumbles. Jimmy played excellent that game

So when Lance looses its his fault, and when Jimmy looses its the defenses fault. Got it.

Show me where I said that

10 points is literally one of the lowest scoring losses we've had since Beathard. Jimmy scored 9 once and won.

Maybe score more points than what Beathard can do and we win.

The reason Trey didn't start is that John and Kyle didn't want to risk having another non-playoffs season. By keeping Jimmy in they have two NFC championship appearances in 4 years. No one's talking about them losing their jobs. If they had another stinker of a season, that would be the narrative.

Originally posted by NDSU:

Originally posted by ritz126:

Originally posted by NDSU:
10/10/21 We lose to AZ by 7 at Arizona (10-17)
11/07/21 We lose to AZ by 14 at Arizona (17-31)

What was the difference? Who was QB for each game.
Do people really still think Jimmy G was better than Lance in 2021?

dude

what kind of analysis is this?

A head to head direct analysis of the outcome of 2 games within 30 days with different QBs.

49ers vs rams we win by 21 points on 11/15/2021
The next game the rams lost to packers by 8

Jimmy G > Aaron Rodgers

both played the same defense within 14 days

also why did you not respond to the stats over the entire season why i said Jimmy was a better option than Trey Lance for the 2021 season? which by the way was the topic of your post

Originally posted by Polkadots:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Just off the cuff calculations - dropping a 1st round, 16th pick (using average/median of first round value) to 2nd round 16th pick drops the value from 1000 points to 420, which is an average of 580. 580 is valued at Round 2, pick 1 on the draft chart. So trying to analyze the 3 firsts and a 3rd by factoring in the time value, I think, results in a false valuation.

At the time of Trey's pick - in 2021 - you had actual data valuations on pick #3 and#12 -- but also a set of unknows (2022 round 1, 2022 round 3, 2023 round 1). We didn't know, at the time, that the first round pick in 2022 was going to be round 1 pick 29, so that's going to inflate the value *given* for Trey vs the actual value (round 1 pick 29). So now we *know* that in 2022 the first round pick is #29 vs an unknown projected number back in 2021, and hence you have a more accurate valuation of draft capital given up *now,* vs using and average first round pick valuation by trying to factor in time. Now in 2023, we again will have an even more accurate valuation of the draft capital given up for Trey because in the future, we will *know* the actual draft capital picks given up for Trey. In 2023, we will know exactly where we will draft because the season would have been played out. So I think factoring in the time value of draft picks would result in a lesser accurate valuation of the draft capital given up for Trey.

But clearly if you factor the time value of the draft capital given up, it's going to result in a greater disparity between what was given up vs the actual value of #3 in 2021.

So, wouldn't the way to do this be as follows:

Points for the 2021 draft picks (at that time / in 2021) + 2022 draft pick points (at this time / 2022) + 2023 draft pick points (known next year, and given at that time - meaning their worth in 2023, not their projected worth today, nor in 2021) = total cost?

Seems like that's what you said, but I just want to make sure. I never liked using projected cost as a way to determine actual cost, though I understand that's what you have to do given future considerations.

End of the day you can't really calculate it given it's a mix of things. Known picks in 2021 vs unknowns in 2022/2023.

Obviously the easiest thing to do is wait until next year to get the exact pick we'll be giving away in 2023 and do the value chart at that point but with the understanding that the 2022/2023 picks shouldn't be valued exactly as they show up in the chart since they at the time of the draft day trade were future picks(or ones that are so called worth 1 round less than that year's picks)

Though of course the biggest tell whether the 49ers made a great trade will be what Trey Lance does. Us giving away a 29th pick this year and hopefully an even later first round pick next year is a positive but if Trey turns into a 15+ year franchise QB for us and one of the best in the NFL during that time it wouldn't have mattered if we gave away #1 overall pick in 2022/2023 to go with #12 in 2021.

But at the same time some people argue that the Bears didn't get fleeced by the 49ers in 2017 when they traded up for Trubisky because the 49ers used their pick on Solomon Thomas. But reality is both teams were going to pick the same player at their original picks. So regardless of Thomas being a bust for us the Bears got fleeced in that deal because they traded up to get someone(bust or not) who they could've gotten at their original pick and kept all their picks in the process.

Originally posted by Silky:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Literally, the only concern I have for Trey initially, is his current mindset:

"I appreciate when I can play how I play and be off schedule."

Trey on his own game: 1:45 mark

Trey Lance talks #HOUvsSF prep. pic.twitter.com/vFN72gjGRp

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 31, 2021

I'm excited to see him grow in this area but initially, I'm expecting him to bail early and often and rely on hero-ball for a while. Some of it will be successful and some, not so much.

I'm also excited to see how Kyle handles it given how much of a control freak he is. LOL

He'll tire himself out by the 3rd qtr if he tries to play hero ball all game

and overall it's false...he didn't play hero ball in NDSU (zero INTS in 2019) people watched the highlights which are a lot of big splashy plays but they ran an legit offense.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by NDSU:
10/10/21 We lose to AZ by 7 at Arizona (10-17)
11/07/21 We lose to AZ by 14 at Arizona (17-31)

What was the difference? Who was QB for each game.
Do people really still think Jimmy G was better than Lance in 2021?

That game was 100% on the defense and 2 bone headed fumbles. Jimmy played excellent that game

Agree. It's tough using the 2nd AZ game as a comparison between Trey and Jimmy because Jimmy actually played much better as the season progressed. Add in the fact that the 49er defense also played much better as the season progressed. However, it's still a decent data point to judge the difference between Jimmy and Trey because it's the same opposing team and basically the same 49er team minus some injured parts. Trey playing - they lose by 7, Jimmy playing - they lose by 14. I'll take that datapoint with a big huge spoonful of salt, but I still do like the direction of that datapoint.

Jimmy stans liked to use s**t like this to though lol. Jimmy WON head up vs Stafford regardless of how each actually played in the context of the game.

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by NDSU:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by NDSU:

10/10/21 We lose to AZ by 7 at Arizona (10-17)
11/07/21 We lose to AZ by 14 at Arizona (17-31)

What was the difference? Who was QB for each game.
Do people really still think Jimmy G was better than Lance in 2021?

That game was 100% on the defense and 2 bone headed fumbles. Jimmy played excellent that game

So when Lance looses its his fault, and when Jimmy looses its the defenses fault. Got it.

Show me where I said that

Yeah anyone who actually watched that game knows that one wasn't on Jimmy. He had his share of bad moments but that was one of his better games.

Aiyuk and Kittle fumbled in scoring position and Norman gifted a touchdown off a ridiculous unsportsmanlike penalty. AZ had no business winning, but several guys not named Jimmy unfortunately choked that day.

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by Silky:
Well we're f*cked because Booger McFarland has major concerns about Trey Lance. Might as well trade him while we can still get something

f**k Booger.

I seriously doubt that Booger watched a single second of the 49ers game against Houston. Only someone who did not watch that Trey Lance start would make the comments that he made. Instead, Booger picked out the one game he did probably see, the game against AZ, and based his comments off what he saw.

By the time Trey settled down and got over his first half jitters against the Texans, the kid displayed the kind of promise, poise and talent that both Shanahan and Lynch obviously spotted. Watching a highlight reel is one thing. A highlight reel is a collection of great plays all strung together. It doesn't give you a complete picture. An entire game, however, does give you a glimpse or glimmer into what the kid can be.

I think, and hope, that the 49ers are going to be fine with Trey. I do not expect the kid to set the world on fire during his first season. I hope nobody does. He's likely to play some incredible games next season, and also just as likely to turn in a few less-than-stellar performances. That's the thing with a young QB. They can be great. They can be horrible.

Bottom line? I wouldn't worry about Trey Lance. I know all of you will, but I think the kid is going to be just fine in the long run.