Who's on your do NOT draft list?

Originally posted by Alfienator:
The irony of this thread is that the Niners will pick up one or two of them that people have mentioned.

No doubt. If they stick at 31 my bet is on Morgan or Rosengarten given their 1) experience, 2) versatility, and 3) the need at OT. Neither will be popular picks in here or likely among the draft gurus.

Originally posted by DrJawbreaker:
Mims: Injury prone and inexperienced. No thanks.

And while you might not care who he worked out with or who his high school coach was, I think it could prove to be a valuable source of information on a player, especially if it's a question about a player's character, work ethic, leadership qualities, etc. The scouts have the measurables and are studying the tape and analyzing each snap and how well he performed in real game situations. I just think it's an added bonus that he's currently working out with and has been coached by people who have direct ties to the Niner organization, who might be willing to give an unfiltered and honest assessment on that player.

And you do make a good point about arm length because his arms measure 33 1/2" and the ideal arm length for a tackle is a minimum of 34". It doesn't necessarily mean that he won't be able to play tackle in the NFL (I'm sure he'll get a shot at the position) but there's a high likelihood that he moves to OG. So drafting him at #31 is probably a reach but if we snagged him in the 2nd round or later, I'd be happy with that.

I mean you can get a good understanding of who they are by having all those meetings and talking to their coaches. You act like they're not allowed to talk to any of their HS coaches or training coaches? Joe's worked with other guys and they didn't draft them all the same. I just don't hold a ton of weight into that stuff…they can talk to whomever to figure out s**t.

I don't hate him as a prospect. I think 31 is a ridiculous reach for him. I do think his ceiling is capped and because of certain things out of his control (length and too a point overall strength) he's kinda tapped out on what he can be…because he's already pretty technically sound.

At this point I have to make my peace with the fact that they're gonna reach for someone and it's gonna be underwhelming as s**t.

Originally posted by DrJawbreaker:
I don't even know if I would call it my evaluation. This is just my opinion, which most likely means nothing since I'm not a NFL scout or a professional who is paid to evaluated NFL draft prospects. And to clarify, the main reason that Rosengarten caught my eye was based on what Lombardi wrote in The Athletic when he and Matt Borrows were conducting the Niner's 7 round mock draft. Lombardi had him going #63 in the 2nd round:

Lombardi: OL Roger Rosengarten, Washington
Rosengarten is the fastest offensive lineman in this draft class. Former 49er Joe Staley is training him. He went to high school at Valor Christian in the Denver area, playing two seasons for coach Ed McCaffrey, who borrowed zone-blocking schemes straight from Mike Shanahan's 49ers and Denver Broncos playbooks of the 1990s. Oh, and Rosengarten didn't allow a sack over 610 pass-block snaps as a senior. Washington even moved Rosengarten to right tackle to protect lefty QB Michael Penix Jr.'s blindside.

There are so many sites that give detailed player evaluations that list their strengths and weaknesses, so my opinion is really based on Lombardi's and other writer's evaluations. Ultimately, the true test occurs when the player hits the field and we find out how accurate these evaluations were. And like I said, whoever is training or coaching a NFL prospect MIGHT prove to be a valuable source of information. Or, it might not. I just thought it was cool fun fact that put Rosengarten on my radar. At the same time though, I understand in this situation that it's just one tiny piece of the puzzle that teams use to grade and evaluate a prospect.

FWIW lombardi doesn't know diddly squat about player evaluations. He might not have allowed a sack, but go watch the Michigan game. Was not good (neither OT was great). You can see him oversetting because of his lack of length. You can see issues with power.

NFL isn't gonna be easier and someone like Mims can handle the power of grown ass men. He has the length and athleticism you love for a guy his size. Whatever with inexperience, the film he did put up was really good. Health is a question, but it's not like he's dealt with the same injury or had ACL surgery.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
You can see him oversetting because of his lack of length. You can see issues with power.

I do not think he oversets because of a lack of length. Arguably the best vertical set of all time belongs to Joe Thomas who had sub 34" arms. Length can help to cover up deficiencies (though I'd argue that's more wing span than pure arm length), but Rosengarten has the range to get to his landmark without prematurely opening his hips; and his explosives testing backs up the film. IMO, it's either coaching or a distrust in his ability to anchor if he doesn't completely beat the defender to his spot and so he's selling out. This is fixable. He is aggressive; his pass pro is not passive. He obviously prefers to jump set, and he doesn't have trouble getting first hands and latching on - his length does not present as a liability.

As an aside, I was looking up his wingspan and just realized Brandon Thorn ALSO comped him to Spencer Brown, coincidentally enough

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:
I do not think he oversets because of a lack of length. Arguably the best vertical set of all time belongs to Joe Thomas who had sub 34" arms. Length can help to cover up deficiencies (though I'd argue that's more wing span than pure arm length), but Rosengarten has the range to get to his landmark without prematurely opening his hips; and his explosives testing backs up the film. IMO, it's either coaching or a distrust in his ability to anchor if he doesn't completely beat the defender to his spot and so he's selling out. This is fixable. He is aggressive; his pass pro is not passive. He obviously prefers to jump set, and he doesn't have trouble getting first hands and latching on - his length does not present as a liability.

As an aside, I was looking up his wingspan and just realized Brandon Thorn ALSO comped him to Spencer Brown, coincidentally enough

IMO part of the reason for oversetting is because he doesn't trust his length. I think that's also why his aggressiveness can get him in trouble. He knows he's gotta get to his spot quickly, get hands on a guy fast because he doesn't have that length to fall back on.

I'm not saying he's awful or anything. I do like him (at a certain draft spot). He has some things that limit his ceiling at the next level. Length and strength. He can improve on the strength, I don't think he's gonna become some super strong guy who can handle power extremely well though.

FWIW thorn has a 4h rd grade on him.

Originally posted by krizay:
He had 14 TDs in 3 years. Which is the same amount as DK Metcalf in his 3 years at ole miss. Which is 2 more than OBJ had in his 3 years at LSU. 2 less than Deebo's 4 years at South Carolina.

Per season stats are meaningless without context. And the context is McConkey played in more games than any of those players and was less productive per game in an offense that threw the ball more. McConkey was shockingly unproductive for a WR being talked about as a potential first round pick. He didn't have a lot of yards or TDs. Metcalf scored a lot of TDs in college and OBJ and Samuel accounted for a high % of their team's receiving yards.

Metcalf: 58.5 yards per game, 14 TDs in 21 games.

OBJ: 58.5 yards per game, 12 TDs in 40 games.

Samuel: 69.2 yards per game, 16 TDs in 30 games.

McConkey: 43.3 yards per game, 14 TDs in 39 games.

edit: fixed OBJ to 40 games

Obj played 14 games, 13 games 13 games my math equals 40 games

The rest of your numbers are correct. As far as games played

Originally posted by krizay:
Obj played 14 games, 13 games 13 games my math equals 40 games

The rest of your numbers are correct. As far as games played

39 Jason Verrett had a take your child to work day when he faced OBJ.

McConkey is #1 on my do not draft list at 31. Do not want an undersized WR with short arms, tiny hands, and mediocre college production (horrendous college production for a first round pick).

I don't want Worthy at #31 either but at least he was productive in college. I'd take Mitchell, Worthy, or Leggette before McConkey.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
McConkey is #1 on my do not draft list at 31. Do not want an undersized WR with short arms, tiny hands, and mediocre college production (horrendous college production for a first round pick).

I don't want Worthy at #31 either but at least he was productive in college. I'd take Mitchell, Worthy, or Leggette before McConkey.

If it weren't for that s**t NY posted about Mitchell's non football stuff he'd be #1 on my board. Football ability wise Mitchell 🤩

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
McConkey is #1 on my do not draft list at 31. Do not want an undersized WR with short arms, tiny hands, and mediocre college production (horrendous college production for a first round pick).

I don't want Worthy at #31 either but at least he was productive in college. I'd take Mitchell, Worthy, or Leggette before McConkey.

If it weren't for that s**t NY posted about Mitchell's non football stuff he'd be #1 on my board. Football ability wise Mitchell 🤩

I agree completely. I rank him as the #5 WR in this draft and worthy of a late 1st rd pick. My guess is he goes to the Chiefs unless the off the field stuff is really bad.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
McConkey is #1 on my do not draft list at 31. Do not want an undersized WR with short arms, tiny hands, and mediocre college production (horrendous college production for a first round pick).

I don't want Worthy at #31 either but at least he was productive in college. I'd take Mitchell, Worthy, or Leggette before McConkey.

I'm not advocating that he should be the pick, but I think Ladd is a legit WR that will have success in the NFL (if he stays healthy). He reminds me of Emmanuel Sanders. Not sure that's worth a 1st, but I don't think it's too far off.

He's not just a slot guy. He lined up on the outside 79% of the time and their passing game was funneled through Bowers, who did play a lot in the slot. His per route and per target efficiency metrics ranked among the best WRs in this class. The production wasn't great, he did have his two 100 yard games when Bowers was out. Only Nabers and MHJ rank above him in career first downs per route run. He's the best separator in the draft class as well.

as far as Worthy. I've seen the zay flower comps. I guess that's fair. My issue with worthy is almost half his targets were on screens. As far as a deep threat I found this analytical data point

his 9.2 career YPT average on deep passes ranks worst of any projected non-UDFA Power 5 WR in the class. Again, for emphasis: The fastest WR of all time is apparently the worst deep threat in his own Draft class

Yuck.

Worthy's 22.8 BMI ranks the 10th-lowest of any WR since at least 2000. Among the 45 lightest WRs, DeVonta Smith (24.1)[17] is the only one to post a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. So, even if the NFL appears to care less about low-weight / thin-frame WRs in recent years[18], the overall track record is pretty abhorrent.

im out on this dude in the 1st rd.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
I agree completely. I rank him as the #5 WR in this draft and worthy of a late 1st rd pick. My guess is he goes to the Chiefs unless the off the field stuff is really bad.

I do like the upside of Mitchell. I really want to like him. He reminds me of Martavis Bryant. He has almost zero YAC ability though. His numbers there are the worst in the draft class.

honestly if you value analytics at all…he was horrible. Whenever you see those charts he was always in the bottom left lol. Toss in taking plays off and not regulating his diabetes. Boy it's a lot of projection with him. The more I dive into all these WRs the less impressive them seem (outside of the top 3 guys).

Any GM saying this is a WR rich draft and BA isn't worth a 1st…they're lying. There's some good prospects, but not a lot of studs.

I have no idea what YPT is or whatever other fantasy oriented metrics might say, but Quin Ewers sucked ass as a deep passer.

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:
I have no idea what YPT is or whatever other fantasy oriented metrics might say, but Quin Ewers sucked ass as a deep passer.

He sucked in general. In watching Mitchell I seen him having to break stride alot which hurts his YAC