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MadDog49er 2018 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by LottOfDefense:
Originally posted by 21SandersMoss84:
It shows just how much Shanny was lusting after Pettis, to secure the pick with such a bold trade. Hopefully the fans will get to find out why he was sought after by the HC.

Let's hope because we are still waiting on Joe Williams who Shanahan had to trade up for.

Guys are going to hit and miss all the time in the draft. That is why all GMs eventually get dumped. The best ones simply hit more than others. It is witchcraft!
Originally posted by JamesGatz83:
We would've been in bad shape at RT with your draft. McGlinchey at 9 isn't really a reach when you consider the Raiders were almost guaranteed to grab him at 10.

It was not a reach, but not good value. If the Raiders are dumb enough to pick him at 10, then it doesn't make it automatically a good pick.

Case in point: The Browns picked Antonio Callaway in the fourth round. Kid is always smoking weed, getting into trouble. If the team behind him is ready to pull the trigger, it doesn't mean the Browns are let off the hook. It is not good value to toss a 4th rounder on a guy who will never play.

My argument is about value, not reach. McGlinchey was simply not the 6th best non-QB in this draft. Not close.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Apr 29, 2018 at 2:48 PM ]
Originally posted by mayo49:
Way too early to grade until they've played a couple of years. Even, the great MadDog must be patient.

It is all fun and games. And, you are right. Nobody knows until then. Still ok to have an opinion.
Originally posted by Oilcan:
Originally posted by CRABTREE:
So if we didn't trade and the Packers took Pettis with the next pick and he's what Shanahan thinks he is, then what would everybody say? Packers were ready to go get him.

No Packers where NOT going to take him. They said he was #2 on there board at that time and they took there #1 guy Jackson. Now if we took Jackson they very well could have taken Pettis.

Maybe I misread it, but it sounded like a reporter asked if the 9ers moved ahead of them to get Pettis before they could and Guhk-whatever said that wasn't the case, and that they had an A grade on Jackson, implying they didn't have an A on Pettis, but still thought Pettis was a good player.

My takeaway from that comment is that it was all mealy-mouthed GM speak: we got the guy we wanted, but don't want to offend by making anything but a milquetoast statement about the guy someone else jumped ahead of us to pick.

FWIW I also think the "jump ahead of" narratives in the draft — particularly after the 1st round — are a little over-cooked. A lot of times teams are trying to trade with a whole bunch of teams in the general area they have a guy valued in, not just trying to jump in front of the next team all the time. We saw a glimpse of this last year with Foster when Lynch said he started in the late teens offering the same deal to everyone to move back up for him if he was there. He just didn't get a yes until he got to the Seahawks, who by chance happened to be the team to finally say yes right before Foster was going to go to the Saints (Which Payton is now trying to backtrack on given Foster's troubles and that they nailed they're pick with Foster gone).
[ Edited by PopeyeJonesing on Apr 29, 2018 at 2:52 PM ]
Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
LVE had neck fusion surgery. Lets see how long he lasts in the NFL. He could have a short career if you ask me because linebackers take a lot of beating game in and game out.

We will see. 5 teams flagged him, which means they dropped him down their boards. 27 teams did not flag it, which means no concern. The combine medical gave him a 4 out of 5 score for health, which is solid. Medicals did not impact him. I think some teams are more worried about him being a 1 year wonder, and others simply had different draft needs (like the Niners). Need over value is a slippery slope when bypassing better talent.
Originally posted by TD49ers:
Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:
Not sure where you saw MD claiming to have a crystal ball, nor claiming that his post-draft thoughts will reflect reality multiple years out — instead he goes out of his way to make clear this isn't the case. How are we to trust you that he is "blind" and "stupid" when by your own claims we definitely shouldn't be listening to you and your opinions?

If grading a draft on Sunday is "irrelevant" just skip the thread.

If you are grading a player before a player even has his jersey number that would be predicting the future. Again, your personal mock draft is not an accurate way to assess a teams actual draft. Its biased from the beginning and lack all of the factual information that would be needed to properly assess this draft class early. The only to do that would be gather all of NFL teams data (not possible) or wait......most accurate.

i think more importantly would be to assess how they may fit into the teams scheme and do they seem like good character guys willing to focus and work hard. ie Mc. Glinchey.

Some players motivations stops at the NFL and some are just starting.

Can you build me a time machine so I can get this 100% right?
Originally posted by dj43:
MD, as always, thanks for your sterling work. Having your list available during this time adds a good deal of value (value pick ) to the forum.

Personally, I think Pettis' performance in two years will soften the blow of the price paid. We shall see.

Thanks, my friend. Hope Pettis is a 10 time All-Pro.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
It was not a reach, but not good value. If the Raiders are dumb enough to pick him at 10, then it doesn't make it automatically a good pick.

Case in point: The Browns picked Antonio Callaway in the fourth round. Kid is always smoking weed, getting into trouble. If the team behind him is ready to pull the trigger, it doesn't mean the Browns are let off the hook. It is not good value to toss a 4th rounder on a guy who will never play.

My argument is about value, not reach. McGlinchey was simply not the 6th best non-QB in this draft. Not close.

For most teams he may not have been. However, for the 49ers, given Staley's age and Brown's weight, contract and inability to pass block in our system, McGlinchey probably was the 6th most important player for them to select. Much more important, I would argue, than taking Fitzpatrick or James as an example.
Originally posted by CRABTREE:
Dante Pettis with Shanahan and Jimmy G will crush the nfl. He'll be the #1 Wr in this class.... Get your popcorn 🍿 ready

I am ready.
Originally posted by 49ERGLENN:
And the majority of the so called experts, Kiper and Co. all give the Niners a solid B for this draft! I'll take that any day of the week! But none of these players have strapped on a helmet or put on pads in the NFL yet, so we'll see! As they say they all have potential! Which means no one on any team has done anything yet! Again we'll see, and I actually like this draft the more I read about the players! We disagree MD and that's okay because it's okay to disagree in life!

Yes it is.

Of course, Kiper has the worst grade inflation in the world. I want to sit in his class.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
LVE had neck fusion surgery. Lets see how long he lasts in the NFL. He could have a short career if you ask me because linebackers take a lot of beating game in and game out.

We will see. 5 teams flagged him, which means they dropped him down their boards. 27 teams did not flag it, which means no concern. The combine medical gave him a 4 out of 5 score for health, which is solid. Medicals did not impact him. I think some teams are more worried about him being a 1 year wonder, and others simply had different draft needs (like the Niners). Need over value is a slippery slope when bypassing better talent.

Just curious. How do we know that 27 teams had no concerns while 5 teams flagged him? Is there some report they have to file that I missed? Or is this merely conjecture?

I think it is very fair to be concerned about a middle linebacker that has had neck infusion surgery and will be taking tons of hits.
Originally posted by SammyFrancisco:
I see MadDog catching a lot of flak for being critical of this year's draft. The reality is, no one is actually good at drafting players. Not fans, not NFL teams, though some tend to be better than others. There are simply too many variables and too much dumb luck. But we all have to appreciate fans like MD who put in their time studying and and sharing their opinions with other fans.
Out of curiosity, I looked back at MD's 2016 and 2017 Reviews to see how they've aged (granted, it's still early for these players, especially last year's class). I compiled my findings below.

2016 (MD's overall grade: B-/C+)
1. Niners: DeForest Buckner. MD's grade: A+
MD's pick: DeForest Buckner
1. Niners: Joshua Garnett . MD's grade: B-
MD's pick: WR Sterling Shepard (missed games in 2017 but looks like one of the better WRs in the league)
3. Niners: CB Will Redmond. MD's grade: C+
MD's pick: CB KeiVarae Russell (Chiefs--Released and picked up by Bengals. Has seen the field but zero production)
4. Niners: CB Rashard Robinson. MD's grade: D
MD's pick: RB Kenneth Dixon (Bills--made an impact as a rookie but missed all of 2017 due to injury)
5. Niners: Ronald Blair. MD's grade: A
MD's pick: TE Jerell Adams (Giants--backup and minimal contributor)
5. Niners: OT John Theus. MD's grade: C+
MD's pick: G/C Christian Westerman (Bengals--backup. Started two games for awful Bengals OLine last year)
5. Niners: G Fahn Cooper. MD's grade: B-
MD's pick: LB Jatavis Brown (Chargers--has started 12 games in 2 years. More productive as a rookie than in 2017)
6. Niners: QB Jeff Driskel. MD's grade: A
MD's pick: WR Keyarris Garrett (Panthers--hasn't played a down)
6. Niners: RB Kelvin Taylor. MD's grade: D
MD's pick: CB Jonathan Jones (Patriots--has started 5 games in 2 years. 8 PBUs and 1 INT in 2017)
6. Niners: WR Aaron Burbridge. MD's grade: C
MD's pick: S Jalen Mills (Eagles--started 15 games this year for the Super Bowl champs! 64 Tackles 3 INTs 14 PBUs)
7. Niners: CB Prince Charles Iworah. MD's grade: B-
MD's pick: C Jack Allen (Saints--hasn't played a down)

2017 (MD's overall grade: B-)
1. Niners: DE Solomon Thomas. MD's grade: very favorable
MD's pick: DE Solomon Thomas
1. Niners: LB Reuben Foster. MD's grade: unfavorable. love the talent but very skeptical of the person
MD's pick: G Forrest Lamp (Chargers--missed entire rookie year due to injury)
3. Niners: Akhello Witherspoon. MD's grade: favorable
MD's pick: WR Cooper Kupp (Rams--very productive as a rookie. Rams are counting on him as a contributor)
3. Niners: CJ Beathard. MD's grade: very unfavorable
MD's pick: LB Blair Brown (Jaguars--backup with minimal production)
4. Niners: Joe Williams. MD's grade: unfavorable
MD's pick: TE Jake Butt (Broncos--yet to play a down)
5. Niners: George Kittle. MD's grade: favorable
MD's pick: CB Damontae Kazee (Falcons--backup with minimal production but did have 2 FFs as a rookie)
5. Niners: Trent Taylor. MD's grade: neutral
MD's pick: FS Xavier Woods (Cowboys--started 4 games and played in all 16 for a sketchy secondary. Had 4 PBUs and 1 INT)
6. Niners: DJ Jones. MD's grade: neutral
MD's pick: TE Bucky Hodges (Jets--yet to play a down)
6. Niners: Pita Taumoepenu. MD's grade: unfavorable
MD's pick: LB Keion Adams (Steelers--yet to play a down)
7. Niners: Adrian Colbert. MD's grade: unfavorable
MD's pick: C Cameron Tom (Saints--yet to play a down)

There you have it. None of this proves anything, but it's interesting to go back and compare past predictions with reality when it comes to something as unpredictable as the draft. MD's 2016 picks were pretty clearly better than Baalke's. While Lynch&co's 2017 class has, so far, looked aberrantly good. Year in year out, talent evaluators make mistakes and try to learn from them, but that's all you can do. Imo, MD's opinions are just about as valid as anyone else's outside the '9ers building. And the guys inside the '9ers building aren't infallible.

Thanks for pointing out all my flaws. You are worst than my wife. Look for Blair Brown to take over for Paul Pusluzny for the Jags, and Butt to make an impact. Lamp is going to be a monster
As always, thanks again MD for your work and review this year. May not be what we expected but hope a couple if not a few can contribute on the upcoming season.
Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:
Kewl.

As fun as your opinion is, it doesn't really entertain OR inform (as it's already acknowledged in the original post).

If your contribution is that people are "blind" and "stupid" because it takes years to know how a draft will pan out, that's a mundane observation and not really a contribution. Rather than spamming the obvious just go back to the last sentence of my post you quoted and skip the thread— there's no point in sullying yourself down in the muck of an irrelevant conversation with the rest of us.

If its so obvious than why entertain grades. So posting completely arbitrary grades with pretty much little or no real information other than google is informative . How many interview did you have with these players? Did you go to there games and scout them? Talk to coaches? Meet the parents?

A productive exercise is stating how they will fit into our system and who we think will be a true pro at there craft. Not whether we reached for player and the value of the draft slot because after Saturday, its meaningless.

Blind and stupid was harsh on my part and was not necessary.
I always respect you take on things and I know you put a lot of time into your evals and I can't be honest and say I was thrilled with the picks and I certainly wouldn't have done the same.

Having said that I think you're overreacting to some of the picks and come off a bit arrogant assuming guys like Pettis can't somehow be better players than you ranked him as.

It's all personal opinion so don't take it the wrong way but I would trust Kyle on the offensive picks. He's proven to know that side of the ball very well. doesn't mean this time he's right and you're wrong but we'll see.
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