MadDog49er 2018 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by cdub80:
I think you will be pleasantly surprised by Pettis. I live in Washington and have seen him live many times. The guy knows how to get open, runs great routes, has elite burst to the ball while it's in the air and wins a lot of 50/50 balls. He was very productive his Junior year, Browning played better that year and Ross was on the other side. He was underthrown so much in college, his numbers could have been much better. I think he'll be a good #2 WR in the NFL and a great punt returner. He can also play all both outside positions and will excel in the slot.

I didn't see it when I watched Washington football this year, but hope you are right.

Originally posted by AmpLee:

Pick 44- Dante Pettis- WR, Washington- The McGlinchey pick was only a warm-up for possibly the most boneheaded pick in the NFL draft (minus the Browns picking Antonio Callaway and the Pats selecting one of the worst college QBs in the draft). Catch this- the Niners traded UP 15 slots to select WR12 on my board. Pettis was the 4th WR selected in this draft. The team believes he is better than Anthony Miller, better than James Washington, Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and on and on. Pettis had 63 catches in 13 games (less than 5 catches per game), and only one game over 100 yards in 2017 (105 yards against Oregon State). The line for his last 6 games: 1 catch, 12 yards; 4 catches, 87 yards; 5 catches, 41 yards; 6 catches , 94 yards; 2 catches, 15 yards; 1 catch, 40 yards. A whopping 1.5 catch average in his last 2 college games. Impressive!!! I get that Pettis is a really good return guy. Is he worth the 44th pick, sacrificing a third rounder in the process? That is insanity. This pick is insanity. So, while we watch Anthony Miller churn 7 catch, 100 yard games, let's sit back and enjoy a skinny 4th or 5th WR on our roster standing on the sidelines. This pick is going to haunt us for a LONG, LONG time.
Draft grade for Pettis- F- (If there was a lower grade, I would assign it)

You've written a lot here but haven't really said anything of substance. Can you elaborate with context on his poor numbers in those final games? What happened in those games? Was he unable to separate from the defense? Did he drop a number of balls? Was he unable to make contested catches? Did he run poor routes? Was his footwork sloppy? Did he telegraph his routes?

Certainly, you have seen the tape and can provide reasons why he was a WR12 in your book, aside from pointing at numbers with no contextual analysis.

Sounds like you are more interested than I in examining Pettis' every snap from the last 6 games. I defer to you, and let me know what you find. I am interested

Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Good read. I agree with your analysis and final conclusion.

I don't know the players as well as you do. I DON"T believe in that throw away line: That every team employee, talent scout or FO type knows better than someone who follows the sport closely as a hobby (as you and some others on this forum do). They're not rocket scientist; in fact I'd say that some of them are very mentally challenged.

But getting back on point. I cannot slam any of their picks for lack of talent. But it doesn't take a genius to recognize that they made some awfully suspect and unnecessary moves to get the talent that they did. Along with leaving behind a lot of draft capital on the table.

Years from now, when some or many of the players that they picked are still on the roster and performing respectably, many posters will smugly point to that fact and make deprecating, and self-serving remarks about how so-and-so said this-or-that, snicker, snicker. But they'll be completely missing the point; namely, that so much more could have been had.

In that respect their performance was abysmal, I agree.

You, my friend, should be a professional writer.

In the end, this is all fun and games. There are more pressing issues in the world. But, it is fun to speculate at this point. Beer on me.

So if we didn't trade and the Packers took Pettis with the next pick and he's what Shanahan thinks he is, then what would everybody say? Packers were ready to go get him.

Originally posted by TD49ers:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another fun year of player evaluation. The draft has wrapped, and teams are celebrating their haul of new players. We will learn much about the new Niners over the days and weeks and years to come. So, how did the team perform when on the clock? Here is my yearly post-draft analysis Couple notes: I do not count the value of current NFL players acquired with draft selections, nor traded for draft choices. In that vein, Jimmy G and Trent Brown are not value added or lost. Nor do I attach value to UDFA added to the roster. I simply analyze the picks being chose while the team is on the clock.

Pick 9- Mike McGlinchey, RT, Notre Dame- The Niners went into the draft clearly shooting for need, and the need to was replace Trent Brown at RT. Brown had outperformed his draft selection, but was out of shape, and the Niners clearly want more athleticism on the line. McGlinchey checks that box. A tall, strong, intelligent, athletic player, with a good head on his shoulders, McGlinchey checks off many of the boxes you want in a RT. There is a LOT to like. Here is my issue with the pick- The Niners were drafting in the 9th slot. Three QBs were selected above them. That means the team is picking the 6th best non-QB in this draft....and McGlinchey is not close to being the 6th best non-QB in this draft. The player selected above him, Roquan Smith, was worthy of a top 8 selection. That was a good use of draft capital. The Niners selected someone who is a better choice somewhere in the mid-late first round at best. In that the team fielded numerous phone calls about moving down and passed, that is a shame. It looks like the team would like to groom McGlinchey to move to LT as Staley's replacement. While McGlinchey was a solid run blocker, he struggled against speedy and athletic edge rushers in numerous games last year, some at critical moments. To me, he is surely not a LT. He is a good RT. The team has a huge hole to fill with a defensive leader, a captain, a signal caller, the heart and soul of the defense for the next _________ years. We didn't have that person before the draft, and we don't have it after the draft. If the team is not moving up to ensure Roquan Smith, they might as well drop down to select Leighton Vander Esch, who they could have picked up, with extra draft assets. The Niners fell into the classic draft trap. Never take need over talent. Talent and need must intersect to create value.
Draft grade for McGlinchey: C-

Pick 44- Dante Pettis- WR, Washington- The McGlinchey pick was only a warm-up for possibly the most boneheaded pick in the NFL draft (minus the Browns picking Antonio Callaway and the Pats selecting one of the worst college QBs in the draft). Catch this- the Niners traded UP 15 slots to select WR12 on my board. Pettis was the 4th WR selected in this draft. The team believes he is better than Anthony Miller, better than James Washington, Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and on and on. Pettis had 63 catches in 13 games (less than 5 catches per game), and only one game over 100 yards in 2017 (105 yards against Oregon State). The line for his last 6 games: 1 catch, 12 yards; 4 catches, 87 yards; 5 catches, 41 yards; 6 catches , 94 yards; 2 catches, 15 yards; 1 catch, 40 yards. A whopping 1.5 catch average in his last 2 college games. Impressive!!! I get that Pettis is a really good return guy. Is he worth the 44th pick, sacrificing a third rounder in the process? That is insanity. This pick is insanity. So, while we watch Anthony Miller churn 7 catch, 100 yard games, let's sit back and enjoy a skinny 4th or 5th WR on our roster standing on the sidelines. This pick is going to haunt us for a LONG, LONG time.
Draft grade for Pettis- F- (If there was a lower grade, I would assign it)

Pick 70- Fred Warner, Will backer, BYU- Back to sanity. Warner is a nice value player in this slot. Was not at the top of my board at 70, but a really solid Will backer. He is athletic, mature, smooth on the field, Can cover a lot of ground. I think he looks better on the field than he plays (his productivity was inconsistent, especially in his final 5 college games), but he adds an ability that we need in a rangy 3 down backer who has very good coverage skills. I do not think he can play the Mike position effectively. He is built like a Will, and needs room to run. I believe the team wants him to play the Mike for some time until Foster returns (if he does return). He was a team captain, which is a big plus for him. No off the field issues- bigger plus.
Draft grade for Warner- B

Pick 95- Tarvarius Moore, CB, Southern Mississippi- Moore was a draft climber after a good 2017 season and exceptional offseason, where he had the chance to show off his athleticism. He played free safety at Southern Miss, and had a productive year, but it seems the team wants to move him to corner. JUCO transfer and one year starter, so he is still pretty raw. Moves really well on the field. Moore is going to be a good special teamer in Year One. I don't think he will play much in 2018, but has the chance to develop and get more time in 2019. This is a developmental pick, with some upside. This is more of a boom or bust pick. I am not sold on it being great value, even though this is about the spot where I believe he would be selected, based on his athleticism.
Draft grade for Moore- C+

Pick 128- Kentavius Street- DT/DE, NC State- Street was a compact, powerful, thick-legged DE for NC State. Ultra-strong lower body, and hard worker on and off the field. Ruptured his ACL in a private workout, so he will be a redshirt this year. 38 tackles, 6.5 sacks in 2017. Really looked good in the Shrine practices this offseason, and was rising up draft boards. Is a tweener as a DE and DT. Teams will have to decide if they want him to be a strongside DE or 3 technique DT. To me, he is a rotational guy that doesn't have great burst, but someone who can hold an edge. More of a line of scrimmage player, so there is little dynamic to his game. This pick cam way too early. I thought he had a 50-50 shot of being drafted due to the ACL. The team must have some plan in mind for him, but he won't be able to do anything on the field, or with the scour team this season. The value is about right if he is healthy. With the redshirt year, this is NOT good value. Will Richardson and Josh Sweat were the two next players selected, and both have superior upside. So, if you are going to take a risk, take a risk.
Draft grade for Street- D

Pick 142- DJ Reed- Slot Corner, Kansas State- Reed was a very good college corner for Kansas State, even though he is barely 5'9". He is loose-hipped, has smooth change of direction skills, is fiesty, and will compete on each play. Excellent special teamer with superb kick return skills. It is clear that Lynch and Shanahan are prioritizing special teams in this draft. Athletic with a SPARQ percentile at 63 percent. Probably will get some field time as a dime corner in 2017, and maybe some nickel snaps as well. Solid, dependable, reliable. For a fifth round pick, he adds value to a team. Were there better pure corners out there? Sure. But, the team will get some use of Reed. Is he a starter? No.
Draft grade for Reed- B-

Pick 184- Marcell Harris, Strong safety, Florida- Did not play last year due to a torn Achilles last summer. I believe I counted 9 career starts, but a fair amount of playing time. Finished the 2016 season well with over 70 tackles. Was not able to work out this offseason, so we have no idea what his athletic profile is at right now. My guess is that the team will have to discover what they have sometime over the summer. Another head-scratcher to me. I simply don't have much to add. Nobody does. I believe he will be a special teamer who the team tries to get on the practice squad and develop. Microscopic chance of making the 53 for 2018.
Draft grade for Harris- D

Pick 223- Jullian Taylor, DT, Temple- One of the more intriguing guys in the NFL draft because he has very little playing experience, and limited productivity, Was a part time starter at Temple last year at DT. Collected a TON of frequent flier miles this offseason because everyone want to see this dude face to face. Two reasons why he was drafted- His final game against UCF was incredible- 10 tackles, 4.5 for loss; and his offseason workout- 4.94 at 6'4", 294 is impressive, as was his 10 yard split of 1.63. Long-armed, fluid body movements on the field. The guy is an athlete. This pick is a boom or bust pick. Zero chance he makes the 53 in 2018. Headed to the practice squad to see if he can develop over time.
Draft grade for Taylor- C

Pick 240- Richie James- Slot WR- Middle Tennessee St- Ultra fun-too-watch little spark plug slot receiver, James was like a video game machine the past two seasons. Giant productivity. This season was cut short by two injuries, but he is the type of slot receiver that will be a blast to watch in preseason games. Short at 5'10", but fiesty. Short area quickness is exceptional. In 2016, 7 of his last 8 games had 100+ yards receiving. So, he knows how to get it done. Will compete for a backup slot role in 2018.
Draft grade for James- A

In the end, I cannot be blind to my allegiance to the Niners. I have to be honest. I don't have any regrets over my analysis, nor do I revisit the players after the draft and tack on added value because they are wearing Niners' gear.

If you handed me an envelop before the draft with a team in the 7-12 draft slot, and gave me these three players for four top 74 picks: McGlinchey, Pettis, Warner, I would say that draft was a total dumpster fire. So, I am saying today, this was a total dumpster fire. In the end, the Niners will pick up this in the draft: A starting RT, a possible starting Will backer, and a bunch of guys standing on the sidelines. To me, that is not good value with the draft capital we had entering the draft. None of these guys are going to be team captains who will be the face of the defense, none are going to rush the passer. We needed both of these...... and still need both of these.

Let me compare with a team that got this draft right. The Cowboys, picking 10 slots lower, picked up a starting monster Mike backer, (in LVE) a starting LG that could be a RT (Connor Williams), and a starting WR.(Michael Gallup). All were picked lower than the Niners, all are better than the Niners' players selected, and with only three picks, not four which the Niners started the weekend with, and squandered in the Pettis trade. The Bears got Roquan Smith and Anthony Miller. I would trade that in heartbeat for the four picks that we originally had, and three selections we made.

Overall draft grade for the Niners in 2018: D-. The Pettis trade and selection was the breaker. Without this disaster, the grade for me would probably be a C+/ B-. I honestly hope I am horrifically off on my analysis and all the Niners pick become All Pros and future Hall of Famers. I just got to call it like it is for today

My Draft-
9- Leighton Vander Esch- Boise State- Starting Mike backer, defensive team captain. The team should have accepted one of these offers to drop down (I am guessing one team was the Cardinals at 15) and made the selection there. My draft position, stated pre-draft, is to trade down if Roquan goes off the board before them, The Niners could have traded, gained assets, and still picked up a stud player, like LVE. Drafted at 19 by the Cowboys.

44- Connor Williams- Texas- Starting left guard. Connor is everything the Niners want in an interior lineman: strong, but agile, Light on his feet, Williams was a bargain at 44. Of course, the Niners did trade up from 59. losing pick 74 in the process. Drafted at 50 by the Cowboys.

70- Ogbonnia Okoronkwo- Oklahoma- Starting Sam backer/rotational pass rusher- The Niners need a pass rusher and Obo is best pushing forward. He was selected later than expected, so this pick did not have great draft value, but he will make up for it with a solid NFL career. Measurables very similar to Yannick Ngakoue.

95- Harrison Phillips- Stanford- Nose tackle- Strong as a house (42 reps at 225), and ultra productive at Stanford(100 tackles), Phillips would have been the eventual replacement at NT for Earl Mitchell. Picked in the next selection, 96, by the Bills. Crazy late third round value.

128- Tyler Conklin- Central Michigan- Tight End- Strong productivity at Central Michigan, Conklin had a solid Senior Bowl week, and an outstanding Pro Day. SPARQ score of 72 percent shows excellent athleticism. One of the better blocking TEs. Selected by the Rams with the Vikings with the 157th pick.

142- John Kelly- Tennessee- RB- Kelly is a good-sized (5'10", 216) running back that breaks tackles and falls forward. Caught 37 balls in 2017, so he can be used on all three downs. Survived the year behind an dreadful OL, but still was productive. Very good rotational back. Selected by the Rams at 176.

184- Cedrick Wilson- Boise State- WR- 1,000+ yard receiver the previous two years, Wilson is still developing as a WR, and shows big play ability. Had a solid Senior Bowl week, and has family roots with the 49ers, as his dad played with them. Selected by the Cowboys at pick 208. Cowboys looking at my board...we share three picks.

228- Akrum Wadley- Iowa- Running Back- Wadley is strictly a value pick at this point. Just like Kelly, Wadley may not be the best athlete, but teams get every ounce of energy from him. Can use him in a myriad of formations out of the backfield, Wadley is a tough football player. Was not selected in the 256 picks.

240- Trey Quinn- SMU- Slot receiver- The Niners picked James, which was solid. I went for the man who caught 114 balls for 1236 yards and 13 TDs. Quick, with great hands, Quinn is a guy seemingly always open on the football field. Was selected as Mr. Irrelevant.

Final Note: One main rule I have for myself to stay honest: I have to make the pick while the team is on the clock. I post the picks on the running draft thread. This way, I can't cherry pick after the draft to maximize draft value. In some cases, my selections were right before another team's pick (Phillips at 95; he went 96). In other cases, I was way off where my player was selected (Obo at 70; he went 160).

You may agree or disagree with my analysis. Let's revisit this 5 years down the road over a cold one, and get a good laugh either way.

Thanks for a great draft year to all. Cheers,- MD

It is clear that you spend a lot of time and effort in reviewing and evaluating draft picks and players and that is commendable, you are very knowledgeable but no one has a crystal ball. In my opinion, grading a draft on Sunday is irrelevant. You and everyone else has no idea how these picks are going to evolve. This could the best drat ever, it could be the worst or something in between. No one really knows for at least 2-3 years. You have no idea what motivates players and why a first overall pick can be a bust and 7th round pick turns into a pro bowler. There are scheme fits, injuries, motivational reasons and talents ceiling that are unknown, so any evaluation is a joke.

The comments around or first pick are blind. Brown was on over weight, under motivated, injury plagued player who did not fit our scheme and could not run block in a zone scheme and to boot was looking for a long term contract. You can argue McGlinchey all day long and whether he under performed in pass protection but he was drafted for the run game. If he turns into a 15 yr average pro we should be happy. Whether he projects to LT in 2 years falls under my earlier comment,,,,,you don't know what motivated him and what the future brings. He has the physical tools and sounds like a leader.....seems like a good start.

The comments around value especially on day 3 is stupid. You have no idea who is on everyone's draft board. The only what to evaluate a reach and value would be to have knowledge of everyone board so therefore a reach/value is based on what......your mock draft, mike mayock, what Mel Kiper thinks.

I don't disagree with the issue of taking injured players especially on a team that is still in need of starting talent. The comparison to Baalke is short sighted. Again, maybe those players were not good to begin with. You can sit a QB for 2-3 years but not any other position?

The draft is mostly a crap shoot. Teams that are successful in the draft, pick players that fit their scheme and have good character. If look at a team like NE, they seem to turn water into wine. Is it because they are good at drafting players that fit their team philosophy and have the coaches to turn potential into reality. Not because of Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock or forum popularity.

Well-scribed, and I agree with much of what you say. Curious on the value statement, so I can correct my stupidity. Tell me where I made it so I can address. Not sure if I compared him to Baalke. Don't remember writing that.

The most true thing you wrote is the draft is mostly a crap shoot. Totally agree. At the same time, if you do your work, you have every reason to impart your opinion. as long as there is substance to it.

Originally posted by CRABTREE:

So if we didn't trade and the Packers took Pettis with the next pick and he's what Shanahan thinks he is, then what would everybody say? Packers were ready to go get him.

No Packers where NOT going to take him. They said he was #2 on there board at that time and they took there #1 guy Jackson. Now if we took Jackson they very well could have taken Pettis.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
MD.. One could say that your mock would have been full of reaches.

rd 1.. Vander Esch..... He lasted 10 picks longer and not taken until pick 19. McGlinchey certainly wouldnt have fallen that far
rd 2 Williams Not bad but still lasted 6 picks longer until pick 50.
rd 3 Okoronkwo Lasted 90 picks (almost 3 full rounds) longer. Would have been a huge reach at 70
rd 3 Phillips Right where you would have taken him. Not sure a backup NT was what the team needed there though
rd 4 Conklin Taken 29 picks after where you would have the Niners taking him. Reach
rd 5 Kelly Taken 34 picks or 1 full round where you wanted the Niners to take him. Another reach
rd 6 Wilson Selected 24 picks later than where you wanted the Niners to draft him
rd 7 Wadley never drafted
rd 7 Quinn Mr Irrelevant and 1 pick away from being an UDFA

My point is not to ridicule your draft. I would have been fine with it. Would it be a B? Maybe a C? Who knows. Probably not an A and certainly I wouldnt give it a D-. But, based on where players were actually taken there would have been several reaches. I also think we have to wait 2 or 3 years before any draft grade actually makes sense.

I dont think the Niners draft is as bad as you claim it is but, once again, that remains to be seen. One thing I do agree with, I would never have traded up for Pettis. If he fell to them in rd 2 great but moving up didnt make a lot of sense to me.

They are all reaches, because your pick stops the movement downward. No person is going to select a player, and the see the average the real team selects him a handful of players away. In that Williams was 6 away, Phillips 1, and Quinn even being picked is not bad at all.

You also missed my point on Vander Esch. As stated earlier, I would not have picked him at 9, but traded down and then made the selection. However, I can't play imaginary trade. I have to draft someone at 9.

Let's be honest: If you had the Chicago Bears' draft card in advance of the draft with McGlinchey, Pettis and Warner, and losing a third to get one of these players. I don't think in any way you would call that a good draft. You have to be honest and admit that you would have laughed at their choices

Originally posted by Fresno49er:
Dont worry MD, I can be blind to your allegiance to the 49ers for you. Your analysis is wrong, 49ers staff dont make mistakes. This was a grade A draft.

Thanks. Beers on me.

Originally posted by glorydayz:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another fun year of player evaluation. The draft has wrapped, and teams are celebrating their haul of new players. We will learn much about the new Niners over the days and weeks and years to come. So, how did the team perform when on the clock? Here is my yearly post-draft analysis Couple notes: I do not count the value of current NFL players acquired with draft selections, nor traded for draft choices. In that vein, Jimmy G and Trent Brown are not value added or lost. Nor do I attach value to UDFA added to the roster. I simply analyze the picks being chose while the team is on the clock.

Pick 9- Mike McGlinchey, RT, Notre Dame- The Niners went into the draft clearly shooting for need, and the need to was replace Trent Brown at RT. Brown had outperformed his draft selection, but was out of shape, and the Niners clearly want more athleticism on the line. McGlinchey checks that box. A tall, strong, intelligent, athletic player, with a good head on his shoulders, McGlinchey checks off many of the boxes you want in a RT. There is a LOT to like. Here is my issue with the pick- The Niners were drafting in the 9th slot. Three QBs were selected above them. That means the team is picking the 6th best non-QB in this draft....and McGlinchey is not close to being the 6th best non-QB in this draft. The player selected above him, Roquan Smith, was worthy of a top 8 selection. That was a good use of draft capital. The Niners selected someone who is a better choice somewhere in the mid-late first round at best. In that the team fielded numerous phone calls about moving down and passed, that is a shame. It looks like the team would like to groom McGlinchey to move to LT as Staley's replacement. While McGlinchey was a solid run blocker, he struggled against speedy and athletic edge rushers in numerous games last year, some at critical moments. To me, he is surely not a LT. He is a good RT. The team has a huge hole to fill with a defensive leader, a captain, a signal caller, the heart and soul of the defense for the next _________ years. We didn't have that person before the draft, and we don't have it after the draft. If the team is not moving up to ensure Roquan Smith, they might as well drop down to select Leighton Vander Esch, who they could have picked up, with extra draft assets. The Niners fell into the classic draft trap. Never take need over talent. Talent and need must intersect to create value.
Draft grade for McGlinchey: C-

Pick 44- Dante Pettis- WR, Washington- The McGlinchey pick was only a warm-up for possibly the most boneheaded pick in the NFL draft (minus the Browns picking Antonio Callaway and the Pats selecting one of the worst college QBs in the draft). Catch this- the Niners traded UP 15 slots to select WR12 on my board. Pettis was the 4th WR selected in this draft. The team believes he is better than Anthony Miller, better than James Washington, Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and on and on. Pettis had 63 catches in 13 games (less than 5 catches per game), and only one game over 100 yards in 2017 (105 yards against Oregon State). The line for his last 6 games: 1 catch, 12 yards; 4 catches, 87 yards; 5 catches, 41 yards; 6 catches , 94 yards; 2 catches, 15 yards; 1 catch, 40 yards. A whopping 1.5 catch average in his last 2 college games. Impressive!!! I get that Pettis is a really good return guy. Is he worth the 44th pick, sacrificing a third rounder in the process? That is insanity. This pick is insanity. So, while we watch Anthony Miller churn 7 catch, 100 yard games, let's sit back and enjoy a skinny 4th or 5th WR on our roster standing on the sidelines. This pick is going to haunt us for a LONG, LONG time.
Draft grade for Pettis- F- (If there was a lower grade, I would assign it)

Pick 70- Fred Warner, Will backer, BYU- Back to sanity. Warner is a nice value player in this slot. Was not at the top of my board at 70, but a really solid Will backer. He is athletic, mature, smooth on the field, Can cover a lot of ground. I think he looks better on the field than he plays (his productivity was inconsistent, especially in his final 5 college games), but he adds an ability that we need in a rangy 3 down backer who has very good coverage skills. I do not think he can play the Mike position effectively. He is built like a Will, and needs room to run. I believe the team wants him to play the Mike for some time until Foster returns (if he does return). He was a team captain, which is a big plus for him. No off the field issues- bigger plus.
Draft grade for Warner- B

Pick 95- Tarvarius Moore, CB, Southern Mississippi- Moore was a draft climber after a good 2017 season and exceptional offseason, where he had the chance to show off his athleticism. He played free safety at Southern Miss, and had a productive year, but it seems the team wants to move him to corner. JUCO transfer and one year starter, so he is still pretty raw. Moves really well on the field. Moore is going to be a good special teamer in Year One. I don't think he will play much in 2018, but has the chance to develop and get more time in 2019. This is a developmental pick, with some upside. This is more of a boom or bust pick. I am not sold on it being great value, even though this is about the spot where I believe he would be selected, based on his athleticism.
Draft grade for Moore- C+

Pick 128- Kentavius Street- DT/DE, NC State- Street was a compact, powerful, thick-legged DE for NC State. Ultra-strong lower body, and hard worker on and off the field. Ruptured his ACL in a private workout, so he will be a redshirt this year. 38 tackles, 6.5 sacks in 2017. Really looked good in the Shrine practices this offseason, and was rising up draft boards. Is a tweener as a DE and DT. Teams will have to decide if they want him to be a strongside DE or 3 technique DT. To me, he is a rotational guy that doesn't have great burst, but someone who can hold an edge. More of a line of scrimmage player, so there is little dynamic to his game. This pick cam way too early. I thought he had a 50-50 shot of being drafted due to the ACL. The team must have some plan in mind for him, but he won't be able to do anything on the field, or with the scour team this season. The value is about right if he is healthy. With the redshirt year, this is NOT good value. Will Richardson and Josh Sweat were the two next players selected, and both have superior upside. So, if you are going to take a risk, take a risk.
Draft grade for Street- D

Pick 142- DJ Reed- Slot Corner, Kansas State- Reed was a very good college corner for Kansas State, even though he is barely 5'9". He is loose-hipped, has smooth change of direction skills, is fiesty, and will compete on each play. Excellent special teamer with superb kick return skills. It is clear that Lynch and Shanahan are prioritizing special teams in this draft. Athletic with a SPARQ percentile at 63 percent. Probably will get some field time as a dime corner in 2017, and maybe some nickel snaps as well. Solid, dependable, reliable. For a fifth round pick, he adds value to a team. Were there better pure corners out there? Sure. But, the team will get some use of Reed. Is he a starter? No.
Draft grade for Reed- B-

Pick 184- Marcell Harris, Strong safety, Florida- Did not play last year due to a torn Achilles last summer. I believe I counted 9 career starts, but a fair amount of playing time. Finished the 2016 season well with over 70 tackles. Was not able to work out this offseason, so we have no idea what his athletic profile is at right now. My guess is that the team will have to discover what they have sometime over the summer. Another head-scratcher to me. I simply don't have much to add. Nobody does. I believe he will be a special teamer who the team tries to get on the practice squad and develop. Microscopic chance of making the 53 for 2018.
Draft grade for Harris- D

Pick 223- Jullian Taylor, DT, Temple- One of the more intriguing guys in the NFL draft because he has very little playing experience, and limited productivity, Was a part time starter at Temple last year at DT. Collected a TON of frequent flier miles this offseason because everyone want to see this dude face to face. Two reasons why he was drafted- His final game against UCF was incredible- 10 tackles, 4.5 for loss; and his offseason workout- 4.94 at 6'4", 294 is impressive, as was his 10 yard split of 1.63. Long-armed, fluid body movements on the field. The guy is an athlete. This pick is a boom or bust pick. Zero chance he makes the 53 in 2018. Headed to the practice squad to see if he can develop over time.
Draft grade for Taylor- C

Pick 240- Richie James- Slot WR- Middle Tennessee St- Ultra fun-too-watch little spark plug slot receiver, James was like a video game machine the past two seasons. Giant productivity. This season was cut short by two injuries, but he is the type of slot receiver that will be a blast to watch in preseason games. Short at 5'10", but fiesty. Short area quickness is exceptional. In 2016, 7 of his last 8 games had 100+ yards receiving. So, he knows how to get it done. Will compete for a backup slot role in 2018.
Draft grade for James- A

In the end, I cannot be blind to my allegiance to the Niners. I have to be honest. I don't have any regrets over my analysis, nor do I revisit the players after the draft and tack on added value because they are wearing Niners' gear.

If you handed me an envelop before the draft with a team in the 7-12 draft slot, and gave me these three players for four top 74 picks: McGlinchey, Pettis, Warner, I would say that draft was a total dumpster fire. So, I am saying today, this was a total dumpster fire. In the end, the Niners will pick up this in the draft: A starting RT, a possible starting Will backer, and a bunch of guys standing on the sidelines. To me, that is not good value with the draft capital we had entering the draft. None of these guys are going to be team captains who will be the face of the defense, none are going to rush the passer. We needed both of these...... and still need both of these.

Let me compare with a team that got this draft right. The Cowboys, picking 10 slots lower, picked up a starting monster Mike backer, (in LVE) a starting LG that could be a RT (Connor Williams), and a starting WR.(Michael Gallup). All were picked lower than the Niners, all are better than the Niners' players selected, and with only three picks, not four which the Niners started the weekend with, and squandered in the Pettis trade. The Bears got Roquan Smith and Anthony Miller. I would trade that in heartbeat for the four picks that we originally had, and three selections we made.

Overall draft grade for the Niners in 2018: D-. The Pettis trade and selection was the breaker. Without this disaster, the grade for me would probably be a C+/ B-. I honestly hope I am horrifically off on my analysis and all the Niners pick become All Pros and future Hall of Famers. I just got to call it like it is for today

My Draft-
9- Leighton Vander Esch- Boise State- Starting Mike backer, defensive team captain. The team should have accepted one of these offers to drop down (I am guessing one team was the Cardinals at 15) and made the selection there. My draft position, stated pre-draft, is to trade down if Roquan goes off the board before them, The Niners could have traded, gained assets, and still picked up a stud player, like LVE. Drafted at 19 by the Cowboys.

44- Connor Williams- Texas- Starting left guard. Connor is everything the Niners want in an interior lineman: strong, but agile, Light on his feet, Williams was a bargain at 44. Of course, the Niners did trade up from 59. losing pick 74 in the process. Drafted at 50 by the Cowboys.

70- Ogbonnia Okoronkwo- Oklahoma- Starting Sam backer/rotational pass rusher- The Niners need a pass rusher and Obo is best pushing forward. He was selected later than expected, so this pick did not have great draft value, but he will make up for it with a solid NFL career. Measurables very similar to Yannick Ngakoue.

95- Harrison Phillips- Stanford- Nose tackle- Strong as a house (42 reps at 225), and ultra productive at Stanford(100 tackles), Phillips would have been the eventual replacement at NT for Earl Mitchell. Picked in the next selection, 96, by the Bills. Crazy late third round value.

128- Tyler Conklin- Central Michigan- Tight End- Strong productivity at Central Michigan, Conklin had a solid Senior Bowl week, and an outstanding Pro Day. SPARQ score of 72 percent shows excellent athleticism. One of the better blocking TEs. Selected by the Rams with the Vikings with the 157th pick.

142- John Kelly- Tennessee- RB- Kelly is a good-sized (5'10", 216) running back that breaks tackles and falls forward. Caught 37 balls in 2017, so he can be used on all three downs. Survived the year behind an dreadful OL, but still was productive. Very good rotational back. Selected by the Rams at 176.

184- Cedrick Wilson- Boise State- WR- 1,000+ yard receiver the previous two years, Wilson is still developing as a WR, and shows big play ability. Had a solid Senior Bowl week, and has family roots with the 49ers, as his dad played with them. Selected by the Cowboys at pick 208. Cowboys looking at my board...we share three picks.

228- Akrum Wadley- Iowa- Running Back- Wadley is strictly a value pick at this point. Just like Kelly, Wadley may not be the best athlete, but teams get every ounce of energy from him. Can use him in a myriad of formations out of the backfield, Wadley is a tough football player. Was not selected in the 256 picks.

240- Trey Quinn- SMU- Slot receiver- The Niners picked James, which was solid. I went for the man who caught 114 balls for 1236 yards and 13 TDs. Quick, with great hands, Quinn is a guy seemingly always open on the football field. Was selected as Mr. Irrelevant.

Final Note: One main rule I have for myself to stay honest: I have to make the pick while the team is on the clock. I post the picks on the running draft thread. This way, I can't cherry pick after the draft to maximize draft value. In some cases, my selections were right before another team's pick (Phillips at 95; he went 96). In other cases, I was way off where my player was selected (Obo at 70; he went 160).

You may agree or disagree with my analysis. Let's revisit this 5 years down the road over a cold one, and get a good laugh either way.

Thanks for a great draft year to all. Cheers,- MD

This just ruined my day!!!!!

Thanks Mad dog!

I aim to please.

Originally posted by 49ERGLENN:
So MD let me ask you this, if you are so smart, and such an expert on talent and draft strategy why aren't you a Scout, Player Personnel Guy, or GM in the NFL? You have your opinion like all of us and that's fine! But you seem to take joy every year in ripping our drafts? The draft is a crapshoot and you hope the picks work out! Unfortunately some do and some don't, such is life! You almost sound as if you are glad when you can bash the team and their decisions. You must really enjoy ripping a team you say you support? Nothing is as bad as it seems, nor is it as great as some make it! It takes usually around 3 seasons to become a competent and accomplished veteran player in the NFL, so we'll see down the road! So based on your assumptions I take it you think we will be drafting next year in the top 5? Yep you are a fan no doubt about it!

Can we trade this entire draft and get that top 5 pick next year?

Originally posted by 21SandersMoss84:
I thought Christian Kirk would've made more sense than Pettis. But it's Shanny's system, not mine. I'll defer to the Wunderkind.

Careful. All GMs and coaches are canned for a reason. You should feel free to challenge when you think they are wrong. Don't drink the Shanny Kool-Aid. He has to prove to you that he is flawless. When he hits on all hit picks, I will retire and sit underneath a shade tree.

Still suffering from the "All Praise to Baalke" thread from 5 years ago.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by 21SandersMoss84:
I thought Christian Kirk would've made more sense than Pettis. But it's Shanny's system, not mine. I'll defer to the Wunderkind.

I think there were several WRS in the 2nd that had similar ratings. Dont hate Pettis but hated giving up the 3rd rd pick to move up to get him. To me, that was the biggest downer of the draft for me.

Mega downer. Crazy mega downer. Maybe we plan on punting to ourselves on third downs and letting him return them.

Originally posted by 9erred:
Maddog, I usually respect you, but your knee jerk reaction has me concerned. The team is parting ways with slackers, and they want to be competitive this year and in the future. I do not like the OT pick, I LOVE the OT pick. He is a leader, will start right away on the right side and in 3 years be Jimmy G's blind side protector. Trent Brown would not have gotten paid by the Niners, by drafting his replacement and having a trade plan in place was ingenius.

Pettis- I watched this kid play as I am a big Pac 12 fan. Shannahan said he does not care about height, he cares about route running ability and smarts. Pettis checks that box and can be a punt returner. He will be an outside WR replacing Garcon soon. How many WR's got drafted in the past and were never used by the 9ers?? Mark my words, I will ear mark this thread and in two years your grade for the round 1 and 2 pick you will need to eat your draft grades (which you will be happy to do as a fan.

I looked at the depth chart and the 2017 draft, Lynch and Shannahan clearly want to see what players can step up. I am a fan of theirs, and will not take pot shots after the draft is over and said coulda woula shoulda, because they did not know how the draft would fall. To say afterwards they should have done this is like saying I should have bought amazon before earnings because they crushed it.

I believe the first 3 picks will become starters, that is all anyone can hope for out of a draft.

You don't have to take pot shots. I did it for you. As for the sauce to eat with this thread, I prefer a honey mustard dijon.

Originally posted by pd24:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another fun year of player evaluation. The draft has wrapped, and teams are celebrating their haul of new players. We will learn much about the new Niners over the days and weeks and years to come. So, how did the team perform when on the clock? Here is my yearly post-draft analysis Couple notes: I do not count the value of current NFL players acquired with draft selections, nor traded for draft choices. In that vein, Jimmy G and Trent Brown are not value added or lost. Nor do I attach value to UDFA added to the roster. I simply analyze the picks being chose while the team is on the clock.

Pick 9- Mike McGlinchey, RT, Notre Dame- The Niners went into the draft clearly shooting for need, and the need to was replace Trent Brown at RT. Brown had outperformed his draft selection, but was out of shape, and the Niners clearly want more athleticism on the line. McGlinchey checks that box. A tall, strong, intelligent, athletic player, with a good head on his shoulders, McGlinchey checks off many of the boxes you want in a RT. There is a LOT to like. Here is my issue with the pick- The Niners were drafting in the 9th slot. Three QBs were selected above them. That means the team is picking the 6th best non-QB in this draft....and McGlinchey is not close to being the 6th best non-QB in this draft. The player selected above him, Roquan Smith, was worthy of a top 8 selection. That was a good use of draft capital. The Niners selected someone who is a better choice somewhere in the mid-late first round at best. In that the team fielded numerous phone calls about moving down and passed, that is a shame. It looks like the team would like to groom McGlinchey to move to LT as Staley's replacement. While McGlinchey was a solid run blocker, he struggled against speedy and athletic edge rushers in numerous games last year, some at critical moments. To me, he is surely not a LT. He is a good RT. The team has a huge hole to fill with a defensive leader, a captain, a signal caller, the heart and soul of the defense for the next _________ years. We didn't have that person before the draft, and we don't have it after the draft. If the team is not moving up to ensure Roquan Smith, they might as well drop down to select Leighton Vander Esch, who they could have picked up, with extra draft assets. The Niners fell into the classic draft trap. Never take need over talent. Talent and need must intersect to create value.
Draft grade for McGlinchey: C-

Pick 44- Dante Pettis- WR, Washington- The McGlinchey pick was only a warm-up for possibly the most boneheaded pick in the NFL draft (minus the Browns picking Antonio Callaway and the Pats selecting one of the worst college QBs in the draft). Catch this- the Niners traded UP 15 slots to select WR12 on my board. Pettis was the 4th WR selected in this draft. The team believes he is better than Anthony Miller, better than James Washington, Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and on and on. Pettis had 63 catches in 13 games (less than 5 catches per game), and only one game over 100 yards in 2017 (105 yards against Oregon State). The line for his last 6 games: 1 catch, 12 yards; 4 catches, 87 yards; 5 catches, 41 yards; 6 catches , 94 yards; 2 catches, 15 yards; 1 catch, 40 yards. A whopping 1.5 catch average in his last 2 college games. Impressive!!! I get that Pettis is a really good return guy. Is he worth the 44th pick, sacrificing a third rounder in the process? That is insanity. This pick is insanity. So, while we watch Anthony Miller churn 7 catch, 100 yard games, let's sit back and enjoy a skinny 4th or 5th WR on our roster standing on the sidelines. This pick is going to haunt us for a LONG, LONG time.
Draft grade for Pettis- F- (If there was a lower grade, I would assign it)

Pick 70- Fred Warner, Will backer, BYU- Back to sanity. Warner is a nice value player in this slot. Was not at the top of my board at 70, but a really solid Will backer. He is athletic, mature, smooth on the field, Can cover a lot of ground. I think he looks better on the field than he plays (his productivity was inconsistent, especially in his final 5 college games), but he adds an ability that we need in a rangy 3 down backer who has very good coverage skills. I do not think he can play the Mike position effectively. He is built like a Will, and needs room to run. I believe the team wants him to play the Mike for some time until Foster returns (if he does return). He was a team captain, which is a big plus for him. No off the field issues- bigger plus.
Draft grade for Warner- B

Pick 95- Tarvarius Moore, CB, Southern Mississippi- Moore was a draft climber after a good 2017 season and exceptional offseason, where he had the chance to show off his athleticism. He played free safety at Southern Miss, and had a productive year, but it seems the team wants to move him to corner. JUCO transfer and one year starter, so he is still pretty raw. Moves really well on the field. Moore is going to be a good special teamer in Year One. I don't think he will play much in 2018, but has the chance to develop and get more time in 2019. This is a developmental pick, with some upside. This is more of a boom or bust pick. I am not sold on it being great value, even though this is about the spot where I believe he would be selected, based on his athleticism.
Draft grade for Moore- C+

Pick 128- Kentavius Street- DT/DE, NC State- Street was a compact, powerful, thick-legged DE for NC State. Ultra-strong lower body, and hard worker on and off the field. Ruptured his ACL in a private workout, so he will be a redshirt this year. 38 tackles, 6.5 sacks in 2017. Really looked good in the Shrine practices this offseason, and was rising up draft boards. Is a tweener as a DE and DT. Teams will have to decide if they want him to be a strongside DE or 3 technique DT. To me, he is a rotational guy that doesn't have great burst, but someone who can hold an edge. More of a line of scrimmage player, so there is little dynamic to his game. This pick cam way too early. I thought he had a 50-50 shot of being drafted due to the ACL. The team must have some plan in mind for him, but he won't be able to do anything on the field, or with the scour team this season. The value is about right if he is healthy. With the redshirt year, this is NOT good value. Will Richardson and Josh Sweat were the two next players selected, and both have superior upside. So, if you are going to take a risk, take a risk.
Draft grade for Street- D

Pick 142- DJ Reed- Slot Corner, Kansas State- Reed was a very good college corner for Kansas State, even though he is barely 5'9". He is loose-hipped, has smooth change of direction skills, is fiesty, and will compete on each play. Excellent special teamer with superb kick return skills. It is clear that Lynch and Shanahan are prioritizing special teams in this draft. Athletic with a SPARQ percentile at 63 percent. Probably will get some field time as a dime corner in 2017, and maybe some nickel snaps as well. Solid, dependable, reliable. For a fifth round pick, he adds value to a team. Were there better pure corners out there? Sure. But, the team will get some use of Reed. Is he a starter? No.
Draft grade for Reed- B-

Pick 184- Marcell Harris, Strong safety, Florida- Did not play last year due to a torn Achilles last summer. I believe I counted 9 career starts, but a fair amount of playing time. Finished the 2016 season well with over 70 tackles. Was not able to work out this offseason, so we have no idea what his athletic profile is at right now. My guess is that the team will have to discover what they have sometime over the summer. Another head-scratcher to me. I simply don't have much to add. Nobody does. I believe he will be a special teamer who the team tries to get on the practice squad and develop. Microscopic chance of making the 53 for 2018.
Draft grade for Harris- D

Pick 223- Jullian Taylor, DT, Temple- One of the more intriguing guys in the NFL draft because he has very little playing experience, and limited productivity, Was a part time starter at Temple last year at DT. Collected a TON of frequent flier miles this offseason because everyone want to see this dude face to face. Two reasons why he was drafted- His final game against UCF was incredible- 10 tackles, 4.5 for loss; and his offseason workout- 4.94 at 6'4", 294 is impressive, as was his 10 yard split of 1.63. Long-armed, fluid body movements on the field. The guy is an athlete. This pick is a boom or bust pick. Zero chance he makes the 53 in 2018. Headed to the practice squad to see if he can develop over time.
Draft grade for Taylor- C

Pick 240- Richie James- Slot WR- Middle Tennessee St- Ultra fun-too-watch little spark plug slot receiver, James was like a video game machine the past two seasons. Giant productivity. This season was cut short by two injuries, but he is the type of slot receiver that will be a blast to watch in preseason games. Short at 5'10", but fiesty. Short area quickness is exceptional. In 2016, 7 of his last 8 games had 100+ yards receiving. So, he knows how to get it done. Will compete for a backup slot role in 2018.
Draft grade for James- A

In the end, I cannot be blind to my allegiance to the Niners. I have to be honest. I don't have any regrets over my analysis, nor do I revisit the players after the draft and tack on added value because they are wearing Niners' gear.

If you handed me an envelop before the draft with a team in the 7-12 draft slot, and gave me these three players for four top 74 picks: McGlinchey, Pettis, Warner, I would say that draft was a total dumpster fire. So, I am saying today, this was a total dumpster fire. In the end, the Niners will pick up this in the draft: A starting RT, a possible starting Will backer, and a bunch of guys standing on the sidelines. To me, that is not good value with the draft capital we had entering the draft. None of these guys are going to be team captains who will be the face of the defense, none are going to rush the passer. We needed both of these...... and still need both of these.

Let me compare with a team that got this draft right. The Cowboys, picking 10 slots lower, picked up a starting monster Mike backer, (in LVE) a starting LG that could be a RT (Connor Williams), and a starting WR.(Michael Gallup). All were picked lower than the Niners, all are better than the Niners' players selected, and with only three picks, not four which the Niners started the weekend with, and squandered in the Pettis trade. The Bears got Roquan Smith and Anthony Miller. I would trade that in heartbeat for the four picks that we originally had, and three selections we made.

Overall draft grade for the Niners in 2018: D-. The Pettis trade and selection was the breaker. Without this disaster, the grade for me would probably be a C+/ B-. I honestly hope I am horrifically off on my analysis and all the Niners pick become All Pros and future Hall of Famers. I just got to call it like it is for today

My Draft-
9- Leighton Vander Esch- Boise State- Starting Mike backer, defensive team captain. The team should have accepted one of these offers to drop down (I am guessing one team was the Cardinals at 15) and made the selection there. My draft position, stated pre-draft, is to trade down if Roquan goes off the board before them, The Niners could have traded, gained assets, and still picked up a stud player, like LVE. Drafted at 19 by the Cowboys.

44- Connor Williams- Texas- Starting left guard. Connor is everything the Niners want in an interior lineman: strong, but agile, Light on his feet, Williams was a bargain at 44. Of course, the Niners did trade up from 59. losing pick 74 in the process. Drafted at 50 by the Cowboys.

70- Ogbonnia Okoronkwo- Oklahoma- Starting Sam backer/rotational pass rusher- The Niners need a pass rusher and Obo is best pushing forward. He was selected later than expected, so this pick did not have great draft value, but he will make up for it with a solid NFL career. Measurables very similar to Yannick Ngakoue.

95- Harrison Phillips- Stanford- Nose tackle- Strong as a house (42 reps at 225), and ultra productive at Stanford(100 tackles), Phillips would have been the eventual replacement at NT for Earl Mitchell. Picked in the next selection, 96, by the Bills. Crazy late third round value.

128- Tyler Conklin- Central Michigan- Tight End- Strong productivity at Central Michigan, Conklin had a solid Senior Bowl week, and an outstanding Pro Day. SPARQ score of 72 percent shows excellent athleticism. One of the better blocking TEs. Selected by the Rams with the Vikings with the 157th pick.

142- John Kelly- Tennessee- RB- Kelly is a good-sized (5'10", 216) running back that breaks tackles and falls forward. Caught 37 balls in 2017, so he can be used on all three downs. Survived the year behind an dreadful OL, but still was productive. Very good rotational back. Selected by the Rams at 176.

184- Cedrick Wilson- Boise State- WR- 1,000+ yard receiver the previous two years, Wilson is still developing as a WR, and shows big play ability. Had a solid Senior Bowl week, and has family roots with the 49ers, as his dad played with them. Selected by the Cowboys at pick 208. Cowboys looking at my board...we share three picks.

228- Akrum Wadley- Iowa- Running Back- Wadley is strictly a value pick at this point. Just like Kelly, Wadley may not be the best athlete, but teams get every ounce of energy from him. Can use him in a myriad of formations out of the backfield, Wadley is a tough football player. Was not selected in the 256 picks.

240- Trey Quinn- SMU- Slot receiver- The Niners picked James, which was solid. I went for the man who caught 114 balls for 1236 yards and 13 TDs. Quick, with great hands, Quinn is a guy seemingly always open on the football field. Was selected as Mr. Irrelevant.

Final Note: One main rule I have for myself to stay honest: I have to make the pick while the team is on the clock. I post the picks on the running draft thread. This way, I can't cherry pick after the draft to maximize draft value. In some cases, my selections were right before another team's pick (Phillips at 95; he went 96). In other cases, I was way off where my player was selected (Obo at 70; he went 160).

You may agree or disagree with my analysis. Let's revisit this 5 years down the road over a cold one, and get a good laugh either way.

Thanks for a great draft year to all. Cheers,- MD

Thanks for all your work during draft time. People may disagree with some of your analysis but I have been following your information for the last 8 years or so, and you are really great at this.

Thanks for the kind words. I do put an enormous amount of time looking at hundreds of players, some of them for every snap of 2017. It is something to keep me from early Alzheimer's, for sure.

Originally posted by Ernst82:
We don't have the same info all the teams have but with what info we have to work with it's really hard to argue with the analysis.

I think we really showed how a young and unproven GM with a coach who seems to fall in love with players and is more than happy to waste valuable draft capital to get his guy.

While I like a lot of players we got I hate how we got them. If KS has a plan for guys like Pettis I'm gonna have to give him the benefit of the doubt on this one. He has never drafted a WR that high on any team he has coached on, let alone traded up for him. Im not sure Pettis drops to us if we didn't trade up.

Love to go behind the scenes on that one and see how it played out.