DeShone Kizer QB, Notre Dame

Originally posted by jcs:

Originally posted by evil:

People can also say no to this guy or that guy at 2...but a lot will change between now and late April. A lot of this process left to go, guys will rise guys will fall.

You know what doesn't change....his 58% completion percentage...his 4-8 record his last season there...the lack of bowl game his team is going to play in...

I think he's going to ace the eyeball test because he really does look the role of a top QB physically but his play doesn't...

This

Originally posted by jcs:

Originally posted by evil:

People can also say no to this guy or that guy at 2...but a lot will change between now and late April. A lot of this process left to go, guys will rise guys will fall.

You know what doesn't change....his 58% completion percentage...his 4-8 record his last season there...the lack of bowl game his team is going to play in...

I think he's going to ace the eyeball test because he really does look the role of a top QB physically but his play doesn't...

And the teams record or lack of a bowl game does not fall solely on the shoulders of the QB. There is even a case to be made that his completion % is not entirely his fault, and that shows up on tape. Yes he has some bad tape from 2016 and some inconsistent tape as well, but there was also a lot of good tape as well. There is a lot that goes into the evaluation process.

If you look at game tapes from both 2015 and 2016, you can see why some believe he is still a first round talent. He has some really good tape in 2015 and when you compare both ND teams he started for (the 2015 and 2016 squads) you see he played for 2 completely different teams. You can't ignore the 2016 tape but you have to look at it and understand that that team not only played poorly but was coached and managed poorly.

Time will tell where he ends up getting drafted but his ceiling is high and arguably he may have the highest ceiling of all the QB's in this class. I am most interested to see how this offseason plays out for all the QB's in this class.

Kizer's resume reminds me of Ryan Leaf

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by jcs:

Originally posted by evil:
People can also say no to this guy or that guy at 2...but a lot will change between now and late April. A lot of this process left to go, guys will rise guys will fall.

You know what doesn't change....his 58% completion percentage...his 4-8 record his last season there...the lack of bowl game his team is going to play in...

I think he's going to ace the eyeball test because he really does look the role of a top QB physically but his play doesn't...

And the teams record or lack of a bowl game does not fall solely on the shoulders of the QB. There is even a case to be made that his completion % is not entirely his fault, and that shows up on tape. Yes he has some bad tape from 2016 and some inconsistent tape as well, but there was also a lot of good tape as well. There is a lot that goes into the evaluation process.

If you look at game tapes from both 2015 and 2016, you can see why some believe he is still a first round talent. He has some really good tape in 2015 and when you compare both ND teams he started for (the 2015 and 2016 squads) you see he played for 2 completely different teams. You can't ignore the 2016 tape but you have to look at it and understand that that team not only played poorly but was coached and managed poorly.

Time will tell where he ends up getting drafted but his ceiling is high and arguably he may have the highest ceiling of all the QB's in this class. I am most interested to see how this offseason plays out for all the QB's in this class.

Not from what I have been seeing. Quite a few of us here are not high on the guy. He doesn't pass my eye test on top of the poor stats. Well, only time will tell, let's see where he ends up then.

Originally posted by Rascal:
Not from what I have been seeing. Quite a few of us here are not high on the guy. He doesn't pass my eye test on top of the poor stats. Well, only time will tell, let's see where he ends up then.

32 total TD's against 8 INT's wow such bad stats.

Originally posted by Rascal:

Not from what I have been seeing. Quite a few of us here are not high on the guy. He doesn't pass my eye test on top of the poor stats. Well, only time will tell, let's see where he ends up then.

And quite a few on here see the potential he posseses and have seen tapes from both 2015 and 2016 and understand the contextual difference in those two teams in both talent and coaching/game management.

Not to mention that he still gets a lot of love from the experts and analysts who have also recognized his potential to be a FQB at the next level. Also hear a lot of these same experts and analysts acknowledge that Brian Kelly seemingly did more harm than good with Kizers development this year.

Kizer has everything except consistent production off the field, and that terrifying. But a lot can happen in this draft and if we get him I will root for him to succeed.

Originally posted by Chibamarines:

32 total TD's against 8 INT's wow such bad stats.

Not consistent game to game...too many WTF moments for me.

Not a fan of his pocket presence either and I don't think he's accurate enough right now, high ceiling but low floor

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by jcs:

Originally posted by evil:

People can also say no to this guy or that guy at 2...but a lot will change between now and late April. A lot of this process left to go, guys will rise guys will fall.

You know what doesn't change....his 58% completion percentage...his 4-8 record his last season there...the lack of bowl game his team is going to play in...

I think he's going to ace the eyeball test because he really does look the role of a top QB physically but his play doesn't...

And the teams record or lack of a bowl game does not fall solely on the shoulders of the QB. There is even a case to be made that his completion % is not entirely his fault, and that shows up on tape. Yes he has some bad tape from 2016 and some inconsistent tape as well, but there was also a lot of good tape as well. There is a lot that goes into the evaluation process.

If you look at game tapes from both 2015 and 2016, you can see why some believe he is still a first round talent. He has some really good tape in 2015 and when you compare both ND teams he started for (the 2015 and 2016 squads) you see he played for 2 completely different teams. You can't ignore the 2016 tape but you have to look at it and understand that that team not only played poorly but was coached and managed poorly.

Time will tell where he ends up getting drafted but his ceiling is high and arguably he may have the highest ceiling of all the QB's in this class. I am most interested to see how this offseason plays out for all the QB's in this class.

This and I'd add that his game tape and stats in 2016 is as good as his tape in 2015 - the difference is that he was asked to make a lot more throws into tight windows because his WRs sucked this year and his offensive line got worse losing Stanley and Nick Martin.

He had inconsistent footwork at times in 2015 and 2016 which led to some misses on easy throws, but he's far more accurate than his 61% completion percentage suggests (excluding the NC State game which all of you should be excluding). This guy is head and shoulders above Watson literally and figuratively. He's a pretty close comparison to Wentz in terms of physical tools but has a stronger arm and is a little more athletic.

I don't understand why anyone would bash Kizer's play but give Watson a pass for his. Minus the hurricane game, Kizer has a higher passer rating than Watson, more yards per attempt, and a better TD/interception ratio. And he's stuck with a true freshman 3 star recruit as his 3rd WR (2nd WR when Torii Hunter went down) while Watson has one of the best 2018 NFL prospects as his 3rd WR. Kizer's starting TE missed the season while Watson's TE is a likely 2nd round pick.

Watson has more yards than Trubisky or Kizer, but Trubisky has more passing yards per game if you take out his hurricane game and Kizer isn't far off. It's funny that some of the same people excusing Watson for his stats (relatively low YPA, TD/interception ratio, and passer rating for a top pick) are bashing Kizer for "poor stats" when he has almost no NFL talent around him this year.

"Watson shows up in big games". Guess what? Watson's receivers are better than any secondary they play against. Kizer's receivers were completely outmatched at Stanford if you watch the tape. He was throwing into tight windows all game and made a ton of NFL throws that game. Give him Clemson's roster and he would have had a much better game.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
This and I'd add that his game tape and stats in 2016 is as good as his tape in 2015 - the difference is that he was asked to make a lot more throws into tight windows because his WRs sucked this year and his offensive line got worse losing Stanley and Nick Martin.

He had inconsistent footwork at times in 2015 and 2016 which led to some misses on easy throws, but he's far more accurate than his 61% completion percentage suggests (excluding the NC State game which all of you should be excluding). This guy is head and shoulders above Watson literally and figuratively. He's a pretty close comparison to Wentz in terms of physical tools but has a stronger arm and is a little more athletic.

I don't understand why anyone would bash Kizer's play but give Watson a pass for his. Minus the hurricane game, Kizer has a higher passer rating than Watson, more yards per attempt, and a better TD/interception ratio. And he's stuck with a true freshman 3 star recruit as his 3rd WR (2nd WR when Torii Hunter went down) while Watson has one of the best 2018 NFL prospects as his 3rd WR. Kizer's starting TE missed the season while Watson's TE is a likely 2nd round pick.

Watson has more yards than Trubisky or Kizer, but Trubisky has more passing yards per game if you take out his hurricane game and Kizer isn't far off. It's funny that some of the same people excusing Watson for his stats (relatively low YPA, TD/interception ratio, and passer rating for a top pick) are bashing Kizer for "poor stats" when he has almost no NFL talent around him this year.

"Watson shows up in big games". Guess what? Watson's receivers are better than any secondary they play against. Kizer's receivers were completely outmatched at Stanford if you watch the tape. He was throwing into tight windows all game and made a ton of NFL throws that game. Give him Clemson's roster and he would have had a much better game.

You can't exclude games to make his statistics look better...he completed 58.7% of his passes.

If you want a more realistic approach
http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/splits/_/id/3129302/deshone-kizer

His 4th quarter completion percentage for the entire season is 48.2%
His 2nd half completion percentage for the entire season is 52.4%
Vs Ranked teams he completed 53.6% of his passes

He's not that consistent, not that accurate...not that good.

Originally posted by jcs:

You can't exclude games to make his statistics look better...he completed 58.7% of his passes.

If you want a more realistic approach
http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/splits/_/id/3129302/deshone-kizer

His 4th quarter completion percentage for the entire season is 48.2%
His 2nd half completion percentage for the entire season is 52.4%
Vs Ranked teams he completed 53.6% of his passes

He's not that consistent, not that accurate...not that good.

Did you see that game? You absolutely can exclude games played in hurricanes. No one who played in the Carolinas that day had 100 passing yards. I'd extend the same treatment to Trubisky's stats.

Everyone should be excluding that game for the sake of comparisons. All those splits are including the game so they aren't realistic. Kizer is never going to have to play in those conditions again and Watson didn't have to play in a hurricane so his stats weren't hurt by it.

It's understandable that his completion percentage is lower in the 2nd half because he's on a 4-8 team where he was forced to throw at times to come back.

And just about every expert disagrees with you, Rascal, and NYNiner on Kizer not being very good even though they have access to his completion percentage and record which seem to be your only criticisms.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Did you see that game? You absolutely can exclude games played in hurricanes. No one who played in the Carolinas that day had 100 passing yards. I'd extend the same treatment to Trubisky's stats.

Everyone should be excluding that game for the sake of comparisons. All those splits are including the game so they aren't realistic. Kizer is never going to have to play in those conditions again and Watson didn't have to play in a hurricane so his stats weren't hurt by it.

It's understandable that his completion percentage is lower in the 2nd half because he's on a 4-8 team where he was forced to throw at times to come back.

And just about every expert disagrees with you, Rascal, and NYNiner on Kizer not being very good even though they have access to his completion percentage and record which seem to be your only criticisms.

You are trying to justify the #2 pick in the entire draft on a QB completing only 48.2% of his passes in the 4th quarter of games. I agree at 6-4 230 he looks the part but he's a hollow player when you actually look at his production and leadership.

Originally posted by jcs:
You are trying to justify the #2 pick in the entire draft on a QB completing only 48.2% of his passes in the 4th quarter of games. I agree at 6-4 230 he looks the part but he's a hollow player when you actually look at his production and leadership.

2015: 4th quarter - 66.3% & 10.01 YPA. Also how exactly are you "looking" at his leadership? Is there a stat that tells me that? Are you watching all his media interviews? Are you talking to ND coaches and players?

NFL teams will watch the Hurricane game tape, but ultimately they will throw it out. Those conditions did not allow for any sort of evaluation of a QB prospect.

Originally posted by Jcool:
2015: 4th quarter - 66.3% & 10.01 YPA. Also how exactly are you "looking" at his leadership? Is there a stat that tells me that? Are you watching all his media interviews? Are you talking to ND coaches and players?

lol 2015 stats to justify a 2nd overall picks selection.